Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 20-06-25

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Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday June 16 to Friday June 20, 2025
Total Upgrades: 11
Total Downgrades: 15
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.70%; Hold 31.81%; Sell 6.50%

In the week ending Friday, June 20, 2025, FNArena tracked eleven upgrades and fifteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Among the ratings changes, both UBS and Bell Potter upgraded Centuria Capital to Hold (or equivalent) from Sell following recent underperformance relative to the REIT sector.

Centuria Capital is considered well positioned to benefit from an improving real estate cycle, with asset valuations likely near the bottom and transaction volumes expected to rebound. A solid FY25 result is expected.

In New Zealand, where the REIT generates high-margin funds management fees, the analysts feel market conditions appear to be turning more favourable for property fund managers.

Also, recent Australian transactions, such as with BentallGreenOak (BGO) in industrial, suggest to Bell Potter a more supportive environment for earnings growth, margin expansion, and a potential re-rating in valuation.

UBS analysts suggest the outlook for real estate is the most favourable since the onset of covid.

Asset values seem to have bottomed, interest rates are falling, and rental growth is strong, noted this broker, helped by population gains and a low level of new supply. UBS added high build costs and weak productivity are constraining supply.

Centuria Capital has continued to expand in areas such as agriculture, shopping centres and private credit, though at a slower pace than in the past. With asset values now stabilising and interest rates likely to fall, the broker believes management will be better placed to raise equity for new fund launches.

Perhaps the most significant news on the ASX during the week was the takeover proposal for Santos, resulting in two rating downgrades from separate brokers.

The Santos share price didn’t rise to the $8.89 offer price (from a consortium that includes Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund and Carlyle Group) because investors see risks around FIRB approval and the long timeline to get various approvals. Shares closed the week at $7.70.

Ord Minnett downgraded its rating to Accumulate from Buy. Morgans moved to Trim from Hold, noting only modest share price upside versus steep downside were the transaction to fail.

The analyst at Morgans also expressed concern at early endorsement by the Santos board for the bid prior to due diligence, potentially reducing negotiating leverage and deterring rival bids.

Looking across the changes to average targets and earnings forecasts in the tables below, rises outweighed falls.

Life360 leads the earnings upgrades table after UBS raised its price target to US$71 from US$57. The move follows reduced platform risk after Apple’s 2025 Worldwide Developers conference, which offered no signs of increased competition from its ‘Find My’ service.

The broker highlighted strong early traction in Life360’s new advertising products, such as Place Ads and Uplift, with Uber’s campaign driving over 100,000 rides. UBS sees advertising, App Store fee reform, and new verticals like pet and elder monitoring as major growth drivers.

A few days later, Morgan Stanley reviewed its investment case (target to $40 from $33.30), focusing on management’s ability to drive subscriptions with Pet Tracking.

Life360 has one of the largest and fastest growing bases of users on the ASX, noted the analysts, with growth largely underpinned by ‘word-of-mouth’. The latter infers lower user acquisition cost and a fast payback period.

Should the feature set improve, and the audience continues to grow, the broker believes management will have ample opportunity to monetise ahead of market expectations.

Zip Co follows next after management raised FY25 cash earnings guidance by around 5% to “at least $160m’. Strong trading momentum has been evident, particularly in the US, where May total transaction value (TTV) growth exceeded 40% year-on-year.

Raising its target to $3.40 from $3.00, Ord Minnett highlighted performance comes with no material deterioration in bad debts, which remain at around 1.6% of TTV.

Management also confirmed the business remains on track to meet its two-year targets and the company has repurchased 12.3m shares for -$22.6m under its -$50m buyback program.

Coming third on the earnings upgrade table below, Neuren Pharmaceuticals received a boost solely from new research coverage by Macquarie. Neuren also place third for negative change to average target price, after the broker commenced with an $18.60 target, lower than other 12-month projections in the FNArena database.

Part of the reason for Ord Minnett’s Outperform rating is the premium US pricing Neuren achieves for targeting various neurodevelopmental diseases with its Daybue product. This broker sees Neuren as offering a rare asymmetric risk-reward profile.

Providing significant upside with minimal financial exposure, the analysts explain the company’s partnership with Acadia covers all Daybue commercialisation costs, leaving Neuren to benefit from 10-15% royalties and substantial milestone payments.

Coming in behind Life360 for rises in average target prices last week are COG Financial Services, Temple & Webster, and uranium miner Deep Yellow.

COG, which specialises in providing finance solutions for small to medium-sized enterprises, is fundamentally undervalued, according to Bell Potter, which raised its target to $1.75 from $1.35.

It’s felt the market is discounting the intrinsic value for the company’s national broker network, growth runway, early-stage earnings recovery, and Australia’s trend in long-term capital investment.

The analysts see potential for an upgrade cycle as interest rate settings turn accommodative, while, for the longer-term, the company will be supported by energy transition work.

Morgan Stanley raised its target for retailer Temple & Webster by $10 to $28, highlighting the company’s expansion into home improvement and simplifying the shopping experience for the customer.

While customers will still rely on a builder, tradie, or DIY, Temple & Webster may eventually support installation through a referral network and strategic partnerships.

Other positive factors for the stock include long-term tailwinds from migration of consumers to an online platform and ongoing margin expansion, noted the analysts.

For Deep Yellow, which is highly leveraged to the spot uranium price, Morgans explained the US$200m raise by asset manager Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) will provide structural support to prices.

In response, the broker reinstated its bull case uranium price assumption of US$100/lb, helping push its target for Deep Yellow to $1.92 from $1.56.

On the flipside, Pilbara Minerals features atop the earnings downgrade table after Citi lowered its lithium price forecasts by between -15% to -20% over the next three years, resulting in a rating downgrade by the broker to Neutral from Buy.

Accent Group and HMC Capital both feature at or near the top of the tables for lower average earnings forecasts and targets.

Morgans lowered its target for Accent Group to $1.85 from $2.00 and downgraded to Hold from Buy following a softer-than-expected trading update. Management cited ongoing weakness in the lifestyle footwear segment. A highly promotional environment also weighed on gross margins.

Citi’s reaction was more extreme, with a new target of $1.67, down from $2.61. The analysts kept a Buy rating, anticipating a more favourable consumer environment over the next year.

Later in the week, UBS released its survey results around spending intentions of Australia’s around 7m youth consumers.

Underpinned by rising incomes, steady employment, and greater confidence in job security, these consumers retain a more optimistic financial outlook over the next 12 months than the wider population, explained the broker.

Positively, Accent Group slots into the analysts’ area of preference: strong operators/market share gainers exposed to the youth consumer in their categories of importance, such as apparel & footwear.

Returning to where this article began, positivity around the REIT sector, HMC Capital remains Buy-rated at UBS. HMC Capital is, similar to Centuria Capital, one of local asset managers in the sector, as are Charter Hall, Goodman Group, Mirvac Group, and GPT Group.

Due to matters specific to HMC Capital (fund restructuring, including a revised performance fee hurdle), the analysts cut their earnings forecasts by -15% over FY26-29.

UBS also adopted a lower valuation multiple, resulting in a target price fall to $8.00 from $12.40. 

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.70% of the total, versus 31.81% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.50%.

Upgrade

ADRIATIC METALS PLC ((ADT)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Adriatic Metals has received a formal takeover offer from Dundee Precious Metals via a UK scheme of arrangement, valuing each CDI at $5.56 and the company at $1.9bn.

Morgans observes the offer represents a 48% premium to Adriatic’s pre-speculation share price and 11% to the last close, and exceeds its base-case risked valuation of $5.42/CDI, though it remains below the unrisked valuation of $5.98.

The analyst considers the bid broadly fair, factoring in remaining operational and metallurgical risks at the Vares Project, despite a supportive price deck and district-scale potential.

Morgans raises its target price to $5.46 from $4.74 and upgrades to Hold from Trim.

ASX LIMITED ((ASX)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/3/2

ASX’s Investor Day outcomes were broadly in line with Morgans’ expectations. The broker cautions elevated depreciation and amortisation (D&A) will weigh on FY26 earnings.

FY26 total expense growth is guided at 8-11%, with operating expenses worsening by -4-7%, and D&A alone contributing around 4% to cost growth as technology projects go live, highlights the broker.

Capex remains elevated through FY27, notes Morgans, with guidance of -$170-180m in FY25/26 and -$160-180m in FY27, significantly above global peers.

The analyst notes the CHESS upgrade remains on track for a staged release beginning in 4Q26. Morgans raises its target price to $72 from $70 and upgrades to a Hold rating from Trim.

CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS and Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/2/0

UBS believes the backdrop is positive for the REIT sector from a likely trough in asset valuations, falling interest rates and robust rental growth. However, headwinds remain from both residential and commercial construction, making completed assets/core real estate more valuable.

The broker is forecasting a terminal RBA policy rate of 3.6% (from 4.0% before) but notes market pricing is for a 3.1% rate by December. If that materialises, its FY26 EPS forecasts for stocks would rise by 2%.

Forecasts revised on lower terminal rate assumptions. 

Rating for Centuria Capital upgraded to Neutral from Sell, with the broker noting its valuation is now significantly below peers. Target rises to $1.81 from $1.74 on earnings upgrade and an increase in FM multiple to 14x from 11x.

Bell Potter has upgraded Centuria Capital to Hold from Sell following recent underperformance vs the REIT sector and peers like Charter Hall ((CHC)). 

The broker believes fears over Bass Capital’s private credit risks are easing, and capital transaction markets, mainly in retail and New Zealand, are normalising.

The broker notes the market is wary about office exposure but is not assigning enough value to the FUM platform. 

The analyst expects FY25 results to be solid and the recent ResetData acquisition to be accretive from FY26. Target lifted to $1.80 from $1.70.

CENTURIA OFFICE REIT ((COF)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 0/2/2

UBS believes the backdrop is positive for the REIT sector from a likely trough in asset valuations, falling interest rates and robust rental growth. However, headwinds remain from both residential and commercial construction, making completed assets/core real estate more valuable.

The broker is forecasting a terminal RBA policy rate of 3.6% (from 4.0% before) but notes market pricing is for a 3.1% rate by December. If that materialises, its FY26 EPS forecasts for stocks would rise by 2%.

Rating for Centuria Office REIT upgraded to Neutral from Sell as lower interest rates are expected to alleviate some balance sheet pressures. Target rises to $1.20 from $1.14.

See also COF downgrade.

COCHLEAR LIMITED ((COH)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/1

UBS upgrades Cochlear to Buy from Neutral with a higher target price of $325 (up from $285) due to the release of new products, which are expected to generate better-than-anticipated earnings growth for the company over the medium term.

The analyst points to the next-generation cochlear implant (CI) portfolio as having the potential to lift market share and generate a 10% compound average growth rate in revenue.

Over the next three years, services revenue is also expected to rise by 40% as the installed unit base lifts by 26%, with improvements in the sound processor replacement rate, the broker explains.

Adjusting for management’s guidance changes, UBS lowers the EPS forecast by -5% for FY25 on lower service revenue and increases FY27 EPS by 4% due to the above-mentioned factors.

HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Ord Minnett highlights retail REITs outperformed other property sectors, delivering an average total shareholder return of 19.2% in the year to June 2025. 

Lack of supply, improving total returns and a return to institutional investors were cited as some of the reasons. 

The broker believes HomeCo Daily Needs REIT’s assets are of high quality with strong population and income growth in its locations.

Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target lifted to $1.46 from $1.30.

See also HDN downgrade.

LENDLEASE GROUP ((LLC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0

UBS believes the backdrop is positive for the REIT sector from a likely trough in asset valuations, falling interest rates and robust rental growth. However, headwinds remain from both residential and commercial construction, making completed assets/core real estate more valuable.

The broker is forecasting a terminal RBA policy rate of 3.6% (from 4.0% before) but notes market pricing is for a 3.1% rate by December. If that materialises, its FY26 EPS forecasts for stocks would rise by 2%.

Forecasts revised on lower terminal rate assumptions. The broker upgraded Lendlease Group to Neutral from Sell as it believes the decision to exit global construction and development is the best alternative for its future.

Target trimmed to $6.05 from $6.38 on lower FM multiple of 8x from 10x.

OOH!MEDIA LIMITED ((OML)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/0/0

UBS upgrades oOh!media to Buy from Neutral, with a new target price set at $2, up from $1.65.

The analyst explains EPS is anticipated to grow at a compound average rate of 15% between 20242027, with the market currently ascribing a low valuation at around 13x, compared to the ASX Small Ords at 22x with average EPS growth of 8%.

Having lost around -60bps of market share in 2024, the broker expects some stabilisation year-to-date, as revenue growth for the first half is tracking seemingly in line with the market.

UBS stresses the company should benefit from tailwinds arising from higher Out-of-Home sector advertising spend, with growth of 15% in the five months to May compared to a year earlier, which in turn represents around 9% growth in revenue.

There are no changes to earnings forecasts.\

PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((PTM)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/1/1

The merger terms between Platinum Asset Management and L1 Capital ((LSF)) have been renegotiated in favour of the latter, which hasn’t surprised Bell Potter, given the -$2bn decline in FUM in Platinum between March and May.

Under the revised terms, L1 Capital shareholders will own 74% of the merged business vs 75% in the initial agreement. But the combined entity will receive performance fees for the first 3.0% of absolute returns vs 5.0% before.

Overall, this means L1 Capital has taken -$100m off the table, which is roughly equivalent to performance fees for $1bn of institutional mandate loss, the broker estimates.

Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell. Target cut to 49c from 52c.

VENTIA SERVICES GROUP LIMITED ((VNT)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Morgans upgrades Ventia Services to Hold from Trim.

The company has won $3.4bn of contracts since releasing financial results, meaning the 2024 record order book will continue to rise.

The analyst previously estimated around -$460m of defence contracts would be lost in June, but a seven-month extension has pushed out this loss to 2026.

It appears there has been little reputational damage to Ventia from the ACCC findings, the broker details, as contract wins continue.

By removing the valuation discount of -15% for reputational risk and making slight modifications to earnings estimates, the target price rises to $4.90 from $4.05.

Downgrade

ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Accent Group delivered a softer-than-expected trading update, notes Morgans, with management citing ongoing weakness in the lifestyle footwear segment. A highly promotional environment also weighed on gross margins, notes the broker.

FY25 earnings (EBIT) guidance of $108-111m implies to the analysts flat year-on-year growth and came in around -18% below consensus expectations.

Like-for-like sales declined -1.0% for the first 23 weeks of 2H25, with performance deteriorating to -2.5% over the most recent 16 weeks, versus a positive 2.2% in the first seven weeks.

The broker lowers FY25 and FY26 EBIT forecasts by -16% and -15%, respectively, due to weaker sales, lower margins, and slightly higher operating costs.

Morgans expects sports-focused brands to outperform lifestyle banners, and sees long-term upside from newer concepts like Sports Direct and Nude Lucy.

The target price falls to $1.85 from $2.00. Rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

CENTURIA OFFICE REIT ((COF)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/2/2

Bell Potter believes Centuria Office REIT’s share price rise over the last three months is out of step with market conditions for the suburban office sector. 

With 9% vacancy and 13% of portfolio expiry due in FY26, the broker reckons the risk is to the downside in the near term.

The broker increased its 12-month weighted average capitalisation rate by 60bps from 40bps to reflect market conditions.

Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold. Target cut to $1.10 from $1.20.

See also COF upgrade.

CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/0

UBS believes the backdrop is positive for the REIT sector from a likely trough in asset valuations, falling interest rates and robust rental growth. However, headwinds remain from both residential and commercial construction, making completed assets/core real estate more valuable.

The broker is forecasting a terminal RBA policy rate of 3.6% (from 4.0% before) but notes market pricing is for a 3.1% rate by December. If that materialises, its FY26 EPS forecasts for stocks would rise by 2%.

Forecasts revised on lower terminal rate assumptions. 

Rating for Charter Hall Retail REIT downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target rises to $3.95 from $3.69 for reasons, including assumed lower debt costs for Hotel Property Investments acquisition.

ELECTRO OPTIC SYSTEMS HOLDINGS LIMITED ((EOS)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Ord Minnett notes Electro Optic Systems’ share price doubled since last month when it announced a $53m contract for its Slinger Counter-Drone Remote Weapons System.

The broker remains positive on the counter-drone theme and expects more contract wins from the $1.5bn pipeline opportunity and NATO’s mandate for higher defence spend.

The analyst lifted FY27 EBITDA forecast by 10% and adjusted the cost of debt, resulting in a rise in the target price to $2.30 from $1.80.

Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/3/3

UBS downgrades Evolution Mining to Sell from Neutral, with the target price lowered by -16% to $6.70.

The stock is up 81% year-to-date, with the market regarding Evolution as the “cleaner” large-cap ASX gold play with copper, the analyst highlights.

Post the reserve and resource statement, alongside increasing capex forecasts, UBS lowers EPS by -14% for FY25 and -15% for FY26.

With lower earnings expectations, the analyst can no longer support the stock’s current valuation, hence the downgrade.

UBS forecasts the gold price to reach US$3,600/oz, and its long-term forecast of US$2,200/oz remains unchanged.

FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/4/0

In the latest quarterly commodity update for Citi, the analyst downgrades Fortescue to Neutral from Buy on the back of forecast lower iron prices, as cuts to Chinese steel production are viewed as a headwind.

Citi prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) over Rio Tinto ((RIO)) due to a preference for copper over lithium, as well as better iron ore operational performance and cash flows.

HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/4/0

UBS believes the backdrop is positive for the REIT sector from a likely trough in asset valuations, falling interest rates and robust rental growth. However, headwinds remain from both residential and commercial construction, making completed assets/core real estate more valuable.

The broker is forecasting a terminal RBA policy rate of 3.6% (from 4.0% before) but notes market pricing is for a 3.1% rate by December. If that materialises, its FY26 EPS forecasts for stocks would rise by 2%.

Forecasts for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT revised on lower terminal rate assumptions and updating FY26-28 hedging higher to around 50%. The broker expects the REIT to be a beneficiary of moderating inflation due to higher fixed contracts in its portfolio.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target rises to $1.40 from $1.35.

See also HDN upgrade.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/2

In the latest quarterly commodity update for Citi, the analyst downgrades IGO Ltd to Neutral from Buy, with the key price forecast revision for lithium down by -15% to -20% over the next three years.

The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED ((LTR)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/2/2

In the latest quarterly commodity update for Citi, the analyst downgrades Liontown Resources to Sell from Neutral, with the key price forecast revision for lithium down by -15% to -20% over the next three years.

The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 4/3/0

UBS downgrades Northern Star Resources to Neutral from Buy, with a decline in the target price of -11% to $23 following disappointing March quarter results.

While Northern Star assigns Super Pit guidance at 2moz for FY26, consensus sits at 1.85moz and UBS at 1.81moz. The broker anticipates guidance to be revised at the KCGM trip in early August. Hemi is also expected to be delayed by 12 months.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -6% for FY26 and FY27 on expected lower production of -3%.

UBS forecasts the gold price to reach US$3,600/oz, and its long-term forecast of US$2,200/oz remains unchanged.

PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED ((PLS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/1

In the latest quarterly commodity update for Citi, the analyst downgrades Pilbara Minerals to Neutral from Buy, with the key price forecast revision for lithium down by -15% to -20% over the next three years.

The analyst lowers the spodumene estimates by -13% for 2025, -27% for 2026, and -20% for 2027, and chemicals by a similar amount.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/5/2

After visits to Duketon and Tropicana, analysts at UBS expect Regis Resources to reach the upper end of FY25 production guidance of 350-380koz, with the broker forecasting 378koz.

FY26 guidance is expected in late July and UBS anticipates a similar range, with costs (AISC) expected to remain near $2,500/oz.

The broker forecasts Duketon and Tropicana mine lives have been extended by around two years each, supported by reserve and resource upgrades, and McPhillamys is now included in the base case modeling.

UBS anticipates a return to dividend payments (unfranked initially) with the August result.

The target price is raised to $4.75 from $4.20. The rating is downgraded to Sell following recent share price strength.

SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Ord Minnett notes Santos received an indicative takeover offer from a consortium that includes Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund and Carlyle Group for US$5.76/share ($8.89).

The broker reckons the share price didn’t rise to the offer price on the announcement, likely because investors see risks of FIRB approval and the long timeline to get various approvals. The broker, however, believes the regulatory risks are overdone.

In Ord Minnett’s view, a change in ownership is unlikely to lead to a cut in domestic gas supply. The broker believes any undertaking to regulators to divest non-core assets wouldn’t be an issue, as Beach Energy ((BPT)) would likely be ready to acquire them.

The broker expects the deal to be completed in the March quarter of 2026.

Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy. Target lifted to $7.90 from $7.50.

Morgans downgrades its rating for Santos to Trim from Hold due to capped upside following a non-binding $8.89/share bid from a consortium led by a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Carlyle and elevated completion risk.

The broker’s $6.90 target is unchanged.

The analyst considers the offer fair on valuation but notes it sits at the lower end of prior LNG M&A transactions valuations and lacks a control premium.

Morgans expresses concern at the Santos board’s early support of the bid before due diligence, potentially reducing negotiating leverage and deterring rival bids.

The analyst also highlights significant regulatory hurdles, with the deal subject to FIRB review and national security scrutiny under the Security of Critical Infrastructure Act given Santos’ strategic GLNG assets.

With the stock now trading between Morgans’ valuation of $6.90 and the $8.89 bid, the broker sees only modest upside versus steep downside if the transaction fails.

VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/2/2

UBS believes the backdrop is positive for the REIT sector from a likely trough in asset valuations, falling interest rates and robust rental growth. However, headwinds remain from both residential and commercial construction, making completed assets/core real estate more valuable.

The broker is forecasting a terminal RBA policy rate of 3.6% (from 4.0% before) but notes market pricing is for a 3.1% rate by December. If that materialises, its FY26 EPS forecasts for stocks would rise by 2%.

Forecasts revised on lower terminal rate assumptions. The broker downgraded Vicinity Centres to Sell from Neutral on a stretched valuation and its view that development expectations are elevated.

Target rises to $2.38 from $2.27.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=208,142,184,102,239,244,172,134&h0=125,137,160,110,178,141,26,175&s0=13,27,33,42,21,29,4,32″ style=”border:1px solid #000000;”>

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