Weekly Reports | 10:05 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday September 8 to Friday September 12, 2025
Total Upgrades: 13
Total Downgrades: 3
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 59.09%; Hold 32.15%; Sell 8.76%
For the week ending Friday, September 12, 2025, FNArena tracked thirteen upgrades and three downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
The size of percentage rises in average target prices outweighed reductions for the third week in a row, with Aeris Resources, Service Stream, and Temple & Webster leading the way with increases of between 9-10%.
Morgans visited Aeris Resources’ Tritton copper operations and came away more confident in the outlook. The broker now factors in the Constellation deposit starting in FY27, with higher copper and gold grades boosting forecasts.
Tritton in central west NSW has proven it can run above 2mtpa with room for lower costs if drilling success continues. Morgans expects 80,000m of drilling in FY26 to extend mine life and sees productivity gains already improving operations.
The broker’s target rises to 43c from 31c, with a Speculative Buy rating maintained.
Service Stream has secured the Defence Property and Asset Services contract for both South Australia and the Northern Territory, following a multi-year tendering process.
The contract exceeded Macquarie’s expectations in both scope and value and resulted in a 10% uplift to the broker’s FY27 revenue forecast.
Importantly, noted Ord Minnett, defence adds a new, large growth vertical to the company, diversifying away from telecommunications and highlighting operating leverage.
Citi already had a positive view on Service Stream on the back of a robust balance sheet and potential for telco volumes to surprise on the upside.
Reflecting further on Temple & Webster’s FY25 result in mid-August, Macquarie felt highlights were active users jumping 16% to a record 1.27m, repeat orders up 20%, and the company’s net promoter score hitting a record 63%.
Looking ahead, Outperform-rated Macquarie noted sales momentum is building into FY26, with revenue growth of 28% forecast, and management sticking with its medium-term sales goal of $1bn-plus. Target raised to $31.30 from $17.60.
On the flipside, average targets for uranium miners Boss Energy and Lotus Resources fell by -8% and -7%, respectively.
UBS has slashed its forecasts for Boss Energy, trimming Honeymoon production by -7% in FY26 and -18% in FY27-28, with earnings estimates cut up to -25%. This follows CEO turnover and delays reaching nameplate capacity, now under independent review.
The broker lowered its target to $2.00 from $3.50 but upgraded to Neutral from Sell after recent share price weakness.
Ord Minnett (Hold; target $2.10) noted management at Boss Energy has brought in the in-situ leaching experts to review weaker-than-expected geology at Honeymoon’s eastern end, with drilling starting mid-September and running up to nine months. A technical update is due late 2025.
In the meantime, the analyst sees no clear investment case until results are known.
Lotus Resources has raised $65m at 19c a share to fund its Kayelekera project’s ramp-up, with first shipments due by late 2025. Macquarie noted working capital needs will rise over the next few quarters as stock builds in Malawi and goods are shipped before customer receipts, with financing talks taking longer than expected.
This broker raised FY25 EPS forecast slightly but cuts FY26 by -93% and FY27 by -11% on a slower ramp-up, lowering its target to 26c from 35c while keeping an Outperform rating.
Ord Minnett suggests the equity raising was sensible after a sharp share price rally. The analyst points to uranium’s pricing upside beyond US$82/lb on strong energy demand, and naming Lotus its top uranium pick, attaching a Speculative Buy rating.
Boss also appears fourth on the table for negative change to average earnings forecasts, behind Minerals 260, Infratil, and Iluka Resources.
With the gold price breaking higher after consolidating since April’s record, Bell Potter sees a solid base for further gains. It’s thought ASX-listed gold producers could also begin to mean-revert towards the valuations of global peers.
This broker raised its long-term gold price forecast to US$3,400/oz from US$2,800. More immediately, the estimate for the second half of 2025 was increased to US$3,500 from US$2,950, providing a fillip for the broker’s Minerals 260 target to 34c from 28c.
Separately, Morgans considered a positive update from Minerals 260, with high-grade intercepts reported across Bacchus, Phoenix, Dicksons, and Kraken, as confirming strong infill results and significant extensional growth potential.
Both Morgans and Bell Potter have Speculative Buy ratings and Ord Minnett entered the fray last week, initiating coverage with a Buy rating and 30c target, suggesting the Bullabulling gold project restart in WA is financially viable and likely to re-rate the Minerals 260 share price.
For Infratil, here, exposure to high-growth digital infrastructure is just one of several exciting growth opportunities for this New-Zealand based infrastructure play. These include a stake in CDC Data Centres, which appears undervalued, and renewables exposures weighted heavily to solar and battery projects as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/10/infratils-growing-undervalued-digital-exposure/
In a bad news week for Iluka Resources, management will suspend operations at its Synthetic Rutile Kiln 2 for at least six months from December and halt mining at its Cataby mine for 12 months, citing weak synthetic rutile demand.
Ord Minnett believes this was a prudent step, and Citi noted Iluka holds significant synthetic rutile and chloride ilmenite inventory, which will be used to meet customer needs, implying flat sales in 2026 versus 2025.
Morgan Stanley had flagged ongoing pressure in the mineral sands market, particularly from weak US housing demand, but this week noted any recovery could quickly swing sentiment for Iluka.
Turning to positive earnings changes, here SiteMinder heads up the table with a rise in brokers’ average FY26 estimate of around 32%.
Citi noted SiteMinder’s FY25 results were solid, with annual recurring revenue up 27% in the second half on Smart Distribution, prompting a small lift to FY26 revenue forecasts.
Annual recurring revenue is expected to keep growing through Channels Plus, Dynamic Revenue Plus and payments, though softer travel demand may trim transaction revenue.
Property adds hit 2,900 in the second half, with 6,300 forecast by the broker in FY26, taking subscriptions to 62,200, driven by APAC strength and Little Hotelier integration.
Costs grew quicker than expected, leading Citi to cut FY26-27 earnings forecasts, but the target price rises to $8.00 from $6.45. Buy retained.
Analyst upgrades to earnings forecasts for Zip Co continue in the wake of a FY25 earnings ‘beat’.
Last week Citi highlighted August outperformed expectations, with app downloads accelerating and monthly active users hitting a record. Total sessions rose 43% year-on-year, signalling strong engagement and supporting transaction value growth.
US app downloads climbed 13% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year, marking the second-best month since January 2023.
All up, monthly active users rose 21% year-on-year and 17% month-on-month, though Pay in 4 growth eased to 19% in the June quarter as Sezzle’s On-Demand product gained traction. Citi expects the launch of Pay in 2 to lift purchase frequency and repeat usage, which could support near-term margins.
Capricorn Metals and Regis Resources were next in line for earnings upgrades, buoyed by Bell Potter’s higher gold price forecasts (as previously mentioned).
Ratings for both companies were upgraded to Buy from Hold by the broker, with Capricorn’s target lifted to $13.10 from $10.55 and Regis to $6.30 from $4.90.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 59.09% of the total, versus 32.15% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.76%.
Upgrade
ALS LIMITED ((ALQ)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/0
Ord Minnett raises its target for ALS Ltd to $20.95 from $17.25 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold, citing stronger resources exploration activity boosting volumes in the Commodities division. FY26 EBIT growth is now expected at 16%, up from 11%.
Revenue momentum in the second half will support margin expansion, suggests the broker, with improved volumes to continue into FY27.
The analyst also sees potential earnings upside from acquisitions, particularly in environmental life sciences and downstream minerals, though no M&A is currently included in forecasts.
ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/4/1
Morgans notes ANZ Bank is cutting -3,500 roles or around -8% of staff by September 2026, plus reducing reliance on 1,000 contractors.
The aim is to simplify operations and cut costs. The program carries a -$560m pre-tax restructuring charge in 2H25, with limited impact on CET1 and frontline roles.
Cost savings were not disclosed, but the broker believes the implied benefits could roughly offset the upfront charge, with further variable cost reductions expected.
The broker made no changes to revenue forecasts at this time, but restructuring charges and cost-outs across FY26 have resulted in a -1% cut to FY25 EPS forecast, and a lift to FY26-27 EPS forecasts. DPS forecast for FY25 are trimmed.
The broker believes the initiative is DCF-accretive, resulting in an increase in target price to $29.24 from $26.84. Rating upgraded to Trim from Sell.
BOSS ENERGY LIMITED ((BOE)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/3/1
UBS made significant downward revisions to its forecasts for Boss Energy after moderating FY26 expectations and cutting Honeymoon production forecasts.
The broker notes the stock has had a volatile few months following the CEO departure and uncertainty over when Honeymoon will reach nameplate capacity, which prompted the company to launch an independent review.
FY26 production forecast cut by -7% and FY27-28 by -18%. EBITDA forecast for FY26 trimmed by -15% and by -25% for FY27.
Target lowered to $2.00 from $3.50 as the broker also increased risk weighting for Honeymoon expansion.
Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell following share price weakness.
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/2/2
Credit growth remains resilient, net interest margins (NIMs) are well-managed as risks tilt towards fewer rate cuts, and asset quality stays benign, supporting an improving outlook for Australian banks, suggests Citi.
The broker adjusts its valuation framework to reflect structurally lower costs of equity (CoEs) across the sector, driving target price upgrades of 10-20%.
Better momentum in the private sector is expected to skew the risk to only one more interest rate cut this cycle.
More positively, the analysts note a steepening US yield curve and narrowing interest rate differentials between Australia and the US have historically supported stronger sentiment toward Australian banks.
The broker's order of preference among the major banks is unchanged: ANZ Bank, Westpac, National Australia Bank, and CommBank.
For Bank of Queensland, the target rises to $6.60 from $6.00 and the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
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