Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jan 24, 2024

This story features AMP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AMP   APM   AWC   BHP   CGF   CKF   CSL   DMP   DSE   DYL   EML   IFL   JIN   KAR   LFG   MAQ   NWL   PPT   RMC   STX   SUN   SVR   WDS  

AMP    AMP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $0.95

Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) –

Back on January 5, Jarden upgraded its asset under management (AUM) forecasts within its coverage universe of wealth management and asset management companies by between 3-3.5%.

There were stronger equity market returns over the December quarter on growing expectations for central bank cash rate cuts in 2024, explained the analysts.

The Neutral rating was unchanged for AMP, while the target climbed to $1.15 from $1.05.

This report was published on January 5, 2024.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.195
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.07, suggesting upside of 11.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APM    APM HUMAN SERVICES INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Healthcare – Overnight Price: $0.69

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

A disappointing first half update from APM Human Services International amid persistent low unemployment, with the company reporting net profits of $55m, representing a -36% year-on-year decline and a -30% miss to Canaccord Genuity's expectations. 

As per the broker, the miss was explained by reduced client flows in key high-margin employment services, alongside a tight labour market for health professionals. 

Despite this, Canaccord Genuity has lifted its second half revenue expectations to $2.3bn from $2.1bn, anticipating growth in North America. The company expects organic growth in the same region from new contracts.

The rating is downgraded to Speculative Buy from Buy and the target price decreases to $1.35 from $2.12.

This report was published on January 22, 2024.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.66
If APM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 96% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.94, suggesting upside of 159.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 17.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 11.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 27.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 13.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWC    ALUMINA LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $1.06

Goldman Sachs rates ((AWC)) as Buy (1) –

Better than expected alumina pricing and cost reduction measures saw AWAC, Alumina Ltd and Alcoa's joint venture, report a fourth quarter alumina margin of US$53 per tonne, excluding the impact of the higher cost Kwinana and San Ciprian refineries.

While the joint venture has already announced a full curtailment of the Kwinana operations, review of the loss-making San Ciprian refinery continues. The site, into which Alumina Ltd contributed around US$25m in the quarter, reported a -US$150m earnings loss in 2023.

Goldman Sachs is assuming the San Ciprian refinery will close in the third quarter.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.39 from $1.43.

This report was published on January 19, 2024.

Target price is $1.39 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.325
If AWC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 37.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $46.30

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

A slightly weaker than expected December quarter from BHP Group, says Goldman Sachs. Despite iron ore production and shipments being in line with the broker's expectations, copper and met coal production missed forecasts by -6% and -9% respectively.

Full guidance was retained aside from met coal, which was lowered -20%. Goldman Sachs notes guidance now excludes a June quarter contribution from Blackwater and Daunia, with divestment of the assets expected to complete in early April.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $49.40 from $50.50.

This report was published on January 19, 2024.

Target price is $49.40 Current Price is $46.30 Difference: $3.1
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.75, suggesting downside of -0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 225.14 cents and EPS of 411.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 407.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 233.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 178.30 cents and EPS of 356.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 488.7, implying annual growth of 20.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 277.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $6.41

Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Overweight (2) –

Back on January 5, Jarden upgraded its asset under management (AUM) forecasts within its coverage universe of wealth management and asset management companies by between 3-3.5%.

There were stronger equity market returns over the December quarter on growing expectations for central bank cash rate cuts in 2024, explained the analysts.

Jarden noted an undemanding valuation for Challenger, and anticipated potential credit spread gains would help offset residual property revaluation risks. 

The Overweight rating and $7.25 target were left unchanged.

This report was published on January 5, 2024.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.41 Difference: $0.84
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.78, suggesting upside of 5.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.40 cents and EPS of 53.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.4, implying annual growth of 19.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 59.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.4, implying annual growth of 13.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF    COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $12.23

Jarden rates ((CKF)) as Neutral (3) –

Third quarter global updates for quick service restaurant (QSR) operators were generally better-than expected, notes Jarden, while consumer confidence is improving across all major regions for Collins Foods.

QSR's are benefiting from more value-focused shoppers deciding to eat out less, explain the analysts.

The broker leaves forecasts for Collins Foods unchanged, and the $10 target and the Neutral rating are maintained.

This report was published on January 10, 2024.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $12.23 Difference: minus $2.23 (current price is over target).
If CKF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.36, suggesting upside of 3.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 54.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.3, implying annual growth of 362.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 64.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.8, implying annual growth of 28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $293.34

Wilsons rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (1) –

In an illustration of how powerful a driver the valuation of CSL112 can be, Wilsons upgrades its target for CSL by 18% to $352.60, in the expectation of positive (soon-to-be-released) top line data for the Aegis-II Phase III trial.

The study aims to show CSL112 reduces the risk of secondary (often fatal) cardiac events in patients, after successful treatment for their first heart attack, explain the analysts.

The broker highlights that at peak sales, CSL112 could potentially contribute 12% of group EBIT and 20% of free cash flow.

The Overweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on January 22, 2024.

Target price is $352.64 Current Price is $293.34 Difference: $59.3
If CSL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $329.70, suggesting upside of 13.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 415.53 cents and EPS of 924.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 949.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 414.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 473.56 cents and EPS of 1085.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1217.8, implying annual growth of 28.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 534.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $58.08

Jarden rates ((DMP)) as Overweight (2) –

Third quarter global updates for quick service restaurant (QSR) operators were generally better-than expected, notes Jarden, while consumer confidence is improving across all major regions for Domino's Pizza Enterprises.

In Australia, Domino's competitor also had a record December.

QSR's are benefiting from more value-focused shoppers deciding to eat out less, explain the analysts.

The broker leaves forecasts for Domino's Pizza Enterprises unchanged, and the $65 target and the Overweight rating are maintained.

This report was published on January 23, 2024.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $58.08 Difference: $6.92
If DMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.18, suggesting upside of 5.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 173.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.3, implying annual growth of 265.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 222.00 cents and EPS of 229.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.9, implying annual growth of 30.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 164.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSE    DROPSUITE LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $0.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DSE)) as Buy (1) –

Dropsuite's Q4 market update signals FY24 user growth is accelerating, suggests Canaccord Genuity. Gross margins lifted and the broker sees potential for further expansion.

Forecasts have been upgraded, but most importantly, probably, is this stock remains a Conviction Buy at Canaccord Genuity. As the valuation has increased, so too has the price target; 40c from 38c prior.

This report was published on January 18, 2024.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.09
If DSE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 310.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 155.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DYL    DEEP YELLOW LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $1.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DYL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes while Deep Yellow has one of the largest uranium resources on the ASX, the stock is circa 10% shorted.

The broker notes downgrades in production guidances has put a rocket under the price of uranium. Add a tight spot market and geopolitical issues and it looks like we're setting up for a "fascinating" outcome, the broker suggests.

Target price upgraded to $1.60 (from $1.44) as the broker rolls forward its modeling and makes minor adjustments. Speculative Buy rating retained.

This report was published on January 18, 2024.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.21
If DYL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 76.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.82.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EML    EML PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.93

Wilsons rates ((EML)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons expects the market will react positively to news the boards of EML Payments and the recently reconstituted PFS Card Services
Ireland Limited (PCSIL) have decided to “wind-down the whole of the PCSIL business”.

This action follows nearly three years of PCSIL ambiguity, note the analysts, following the Central Bank of Ireland raising “significant regulatory concerns” about its operations.

Overweight. Target $1.17.

This report was published on January 19, 2024.

Target price is $1.17 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.24
If EML meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.22.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.92.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFL    INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.21

Jarden rates ((IFL)) as Overweight (2) –

Back on January 5, Jarden upgraded its asset under management (AUM) forecasts within its coverage universe of wealth management and asset management companies by between 3-3.5%.

There were stronger equity market returns over the December quarter on growing expectations for central bank cash rate cuts in 2024, explained the analysts.

With thinner operating margins, Insignia Financial benefits most across the wealth managers, noted Jarden, with EPS upgrades of around 5% for FY24 and circa 10% in outer years,

The broker prefers Insignia Financial in the space. The Overweight rating was unchanged, while the target climbed to $2.85 from $2.50.

This report was published on January 5, 2024.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.64
If IFL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.44, suggesting upside of 10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.70 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of 1796.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.40 cents and EPS of 30.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JIN    JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $15.30

Wilsons rates ((JIN)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons sees medium-term potential for Jumbo Interactive's share price to break above its trading range of the last 18 months.

The broker lists several catalysts for this to occur including the ongoing increase in digital’s share of total lottery sales, and margin expansion given the capping of Lottery Corp's ((TLC)) service fee at 4.65%. 

The broker's target falls to $16.97 from $17.54 partly due to marking-to-market 1H Lottery Retailing segment assumptions for final 1H
national lottery sales, and after accounting for the current Powerball run.

The Overweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on January 22, 2024.

Target price is $16.97 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $1.67
If JIN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.26, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 57.20 cents and EPS of 67.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.4, implying annual growth of 34.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 74.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.7, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.78

Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

As part of research written on January 14, Jarden lowered its target price for Karoon Energy to $2.30 from $2.50. According to the analyst, management was set to report December quarter production from its Brazilian assets at a level -11.4% below the prior quarter.

The broker anticipated the risk of a downgrade to 2024 Brazil production guidance to 7.0-9.0mmbbl from 8.0-10mmbbl. forecast excluded any contribution from the recently acquired interest in the Who Dat oil and gas field in the Gulf of Mexico.

As it turned out, Jarden's view was prescient, as management lowered guidance to between 7.2-9.0mmbl on January 23.

The Buy rating was retained.

This report was published on January 5, 2024.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.515
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 43.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.9, implying annual growth of -16.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LFG    LIBERTY FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $4.50

Jarden rates ((LFG)) as Neutral (3) –

While there are some positive signs for a turning point for non-bank lenders, Jarden doesn't expect an earnings recovery until FY25 given competition in the mortgage market and rising bad debts.

Elevated loan runoffs are also providing an overriding drag, explains the broker.

Overweight-rated Pepper Money is Jarden's preferred exposure in the space.

For Liberty Financial, while the broker likes the more diversified business and sound margin management, a higher relative valuation keeps the rating at Neutral. Target $4.13.

This report was published on January 12, 2024.

Target price is $4.13 Current Price is $4.50 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If LFG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.38.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.82.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAQ    MACQUARIE TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $73.00

Wilsons rates ((MAQ)) as Overweight (1) –

In a positive outcome for momentum early in 2024, according to Wilsons, Macquarie Technology has received formal approval from the NSW Independent Planning Commission for the IC3 SuperWest development.

The broker advises recommendations and outcomes arrived at to-date will now be reviewed by the NSW Department of Planning & Environment, before the department adjudicates on the formal Development Approval.

The Development Approval could take anywhere from between one to four weeks, note the analysts.

Market Weight rating. Target $84.13.

This report was published on January 22, 2024.

Target price is $84.13 Current Price is $73.00 Difference: $11.13
If MAQ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL    NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $17.45

Jarden rates ((NWL)) as Underweight (4) –

Back on January 5, Jarden upgraded its asset under management (AUM) forecasts within its coverage universe of wealth management and asset management companies by between 3-3.5%.

There were stronger equity market returns over the December quarter on growing expectations for central bank cash rate cuts in 2024, explained the analysts.

The broker's FY24 forecast EPS for Netwealth Group was increased by around 4.5%, and the target price was raised to $14.85 from $13.80.

The Underweight rating was left unchanged.

This report was published on January 5, 2024.

Target price is $14.85 Current Price is $17.45 Difference: minus $2.6 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.83, suggesting downside of -7.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.10 cents and EPS of 35.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of 23.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 42.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.1, implying annual growth of 20.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT    PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $25.99

Jarden rates ((PPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Back on January 5, Jarden upgraded its asset under management (AUM) forecasts within its coverage universe of wealth management and asset management companies by between 3-3.5%.

There were stronger equity market returns over the December quarter on growing expectations for central bank cash rate cuts in 2024, explained the analysts.

The FY24 AUM forecast for Perpetual was raised by 3.2%. The Overweight rating was retained and the target increased to $29.10 from $26.80.

This report was published on January 5, 2024.

Target price is $29.10 Current Price is $25.99 Difference: $3.11
If PPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.80, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 144.40 cents and EPS of 190.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 202.5, implying annual growth of 176.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 153.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 173.10 cents and EPS of 227.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 232.1, implying annual growth of 14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 179.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMC    RESIMAC GROUP LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $1.12

Jarden rates ((RMC)) as Underweight (4) –

While there are some positive signs for a turning point for non-bank lenders, Jarden doesn't expect an earnings recovery until FY25 given competition in the mortgage market and rising bad debts.

Elevated loan runoffs are also providing an overriding drag, explains the broker.

Overweight-rated Pepper Money is Jarden's preferred exposure in the space from stocks under research coverage.

The broker has an Underweight rating for Resimac Group on valuation. It's felt the share price has been supported by an ongoing buyback and the group's recent pivot towards housing asset under management (AUM) growth. Target $1.03.

This report was published on January 12, 2024.

Target price is $1.03 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: minus $0.095 (current price is over target).
If RMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.02, suggesting downside of -10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.8, implying annual growth of -22.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of 3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STX    STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.43

Wilsons rates ((STX)) as Overweight (1) –

In a great outcome for shareholders of both parties, according to Wilsons, Strike Energy has successfully acquired Talon Energy ((TPD)) via Scheme of Arrangement. Strike has taken full ownership of the Walyering asset, up from the prior 55% stake.

The Scheme became effective on December 28, 2023, with Strike issuing 322m new shares to existing Talon shareholders.

The Overweight rating for Strike Energy is maintained and the target falls to 53c from 54c.

This report was published on January 19, 2024.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.095
If STX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 20.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of 87.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $14.27

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

With Suncorp Group set to release its first half results release in late February, Goldman Sachs anticipates cash earnings of $678m and profit after tax of $558m, with general insurance contributing $499m of that.

The broker also anticipates an update on premium rate increases, but considers rate trends to be strong for Suncorp Group, which already operates within its target range.

Consequently, relative to competitor Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), the broker feels Suncorp Group is in a better position to grow volumes. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $15.00 from $15.13.

This report was published on January 19, 2024.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.27 Difference: $0.73
If SUN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.42, suggesting upside of 9.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.2, implying annual growth of 20.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.5, implying annual growth of 2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SVR    SOLVAR LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.08

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SVR)) as Buy (1) –

A subsidiary of Solvar has had civil proceeding launched against it in the High Court by New Zealand's Commerce Commission. It's alleged Go Car Finance Ltd breached the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act when providing car finance to borrowers.

The board of directors at Solvar believe the company has complied with its lender responsibility obligations.

Canaccord Genuity suggest the legal action is negative for near-term sentiment, but not entirely unexpected as there were "matters under review" mentioned within the FY23 annual report.

The Buy rating and $1.55 target are unchanged.

This report was published on January 19, 2024.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.465
If SVR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.04.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.23.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $31.09

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

As part of research penned on January 14, Jarden downgraded its rating for Woodside Energy to Underweight from Neutral after rolling forward the valuation by a year to January 1, 2024.

By performing this roll forward, the analyst removed -$3.40/share in dividend payments made by the company. As value accretion for the company's portfolio was insufficient to offset the dividend payment, the target was reduced to $29 from $30.50.

This report was published on January 14, 2024.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $31.09 Difference: minus $2.09 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.48, suggesting upside of 14.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 199.46 cents and EPS of 250.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 234.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 190.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 166.21 cents and EPS of 209.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 219.6, implying annual growth of -6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 196.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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