Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 14, 2024

This story features LIFE360 INC, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 360

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

360   ABB   AEE   AGE   AMP   ARX (2)   AUB   BMN   BPT (2)   CAR   CLW   DTL   DUG   EMR   EVT   GNE   HLI   JAN   JBH   LNW (2)   LOT   LYC   MGR   NCK   NST   NWS   QBE (2)   REA (2)   RKN   SPK   TCL (2)  

360    LIFE360 INC

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $17.34

Goldman Sachs rates ((360)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs views the 132k net additions as the highlight from the 2Q2024 result from Life360. The broker also noted the growth in both monthly average users and the paying circles.

Goldman Sachs lifts EBITDA forecasts by 15% for 2024 and 8% for 2025, reaffirming the word-of-mouth model.

Buy rating retained. The target price is revised up by 23% to $19.75.

This report was published on August 9, 2024.

Target price is $19.75 Current Price is $17.34 Difference: $2.41
If 360 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.09, suggesting upside of 15.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 113.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 89.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.9, implying annual growth of 146.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ABB    AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.08

Wilsons rates ((ABB)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons revises down its FY26 forecasts for Aussie Broadband, leaving FY24 and FY25 unchanged.

The broker believes its subscriber number forecasts for that year were too high within the Wholesale Business and Consumer segment, particularly for Wholesale and Business.

Market Weight rating and $3.32 target price.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.24
If ABB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.74.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.16.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AEE    AURA ENERGY LIMITED

Energy – Overnight Price: $0.13

Petra Capital rates ((AEE)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital highlights ASX uranium equities are down year-to-date compared to the U308 contract price which has risen 18% on low volumes.

The broker believes uranium stocks have the potential to rally with any uranium spot price rises, which is believed to be most likely given term contracting volumes need to play catch up.

Petra Capital highlights the Tiris project for Aura Energy has received permits for development and mining with a final investment decision expected in the March quarter 2025.

The company updated the capex forecast to CA$2.2bn from CA$1.3bn.  Buy rated with a 45c target price.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.32
If AEE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 246% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.60.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.60.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AGE    ALLIGATOR ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.04

Petra Capital rates ((AGE)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital highlights ASX uranium equities are down year-to-date compared to the U308 contract price which has risen 18% on low volumes.

The broker believes uranium stocks have the potential to rally with any uranium spot price rises which is believed to be most likely given term contracting volumes need to play catch up.

In terms of new projects, Petra Capital likes Alligator Energy and Aura Energy ((AGE)) with the former continuing to develop its Samphire project in SA.

Buy rated with an 11c target price.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.07
If AGE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 175% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP    AMP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.31

Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden highlights AMP’s 1H24 results were above expectations. 

The company announced the sale of its loss-making advice business. The broker stresses ongoing cost outs will be the diver for growth, with potential net outflows a risk to earnings.

Jarden revises EPS forecasts by 15.9% for FY24 and 12.1% for FY25.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $1.30 from $1.20.

This report was published on August 9, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting downside of -1.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.4, implying annual growth of 1074.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 11.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 31.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.52

Jarden rates ((ARX)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Aroa Biosurgery’s June-quarter result largely met consensus forecasts and management reiterated FY25 revenue guidance (based on an NZD/USD exchanged rate of 64c).

The broker suspects FX movements could shift the dial in Aroa Biosurgery’s favour (spot is 60c).

Jarden observes the company’s inventory issues appear to have been cleared and expects positive operating cash flow in the December half.

EPS forecasts fall sharply, reflecting a change of lead analyst.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target price slumps -29% to 71c from $1, to reflect the analyst’s expectation of a longer road to improved valuation.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.19
If ARX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 281.08.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.00.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((ARX)) as Overweight (1) –

Aroa Biosurgery’s US channel partner Tela Bio’s June-quarter results missed Wilsons’ revenue forecasts but management retained full-year guidance. Revenue for the year rose 11%.

The miss was attributed to a cyber-attack on a nation GPO and hospital customer and the broker says the May incident was resolved within a few weeks and assesses the event will likely have a minimal impact on Aroa Biosurgery.

Wilsons is reviewing its forecasts but doubts any major changes will be required.

Overweight rating and $1 target price retained.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.48
If ARX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 92% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 281.08.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.66.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB    AUB GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $33.11

Goldman Sachs rates ((AUB)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs raises AUB Group’s target price to $33 from $32.50 heading into the result after upgrading earnings forecasts to include the completion of the company’s purchase of Pacific Indemnity and after including the company’s equity raisings.

The company is due to report on August 21 and the broker’s focus is on FY25 guidance; benefits of acquisitions and organic growth; an update on profit shares from Agencies; capital allocation and M&A; and gearing.

While the broker expects the evidence will show strong premium rate increases, it expects a moderation may be in the wings as competition rises. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on August 7, 2024.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $33.11 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If AUB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $34.85, suggesting upside of 5.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 155.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.4, implying annual growth of 137.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 171.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.3, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BMN    BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $2.48

Petra Capital rates ((BMN)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital highlights ASX uranium equities are down year-to-date compared to the U308 contract price which has risen 18% on low volumes.

The broker believes uranium stocks have the potential to rally with any uranium spot price rises, which is believed to be most likely given term contracting volumes need to play catch up.

Bannerman Energy is highlighted as “significantly cheaper” than its Namibian peer Deep Yellow ((DYL)) and the stock remains one of preferred uranium developers for Petra Capital.

Buy rating and $4.51 target.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $4.51 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $2.03
If BMN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 137.78.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 275.56.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.27

Goldman Sachs rates ((BPT)) as Sell (5) –

Beach Energy’s FY24 result included a surprise downgrade of 2P reserves, and Goldman Sachs says the poor outcomes present a risk to its Otway Basin project and to the Thylacine West performance in the June 30, 2025, half.

Excluding that, results outpaced the broker and FY25 production and capital expenditure guidance was retained and the dividend met the broker’s forecast (albeit -3% below consensus).

Sell rating retained. Target price falls -5% to $1.44 from $1.52.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $1.44 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.17
If BPT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 21.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of 22.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (1) –

Beach Energy’s FY24 result broadly met consensus and Wilsons’ forecasts but a surprise 2P downgrade at the Enterprise gas field sent the share-price into a tailspin.

FY25 production and capital expenditure guidance were retained and Wilsons believes the sell-off has provided a good entry point into Beach Energy. “How many more downgrades can we expect,” says Wilsons.

Management advised reserves have been fully reviewed for each asset and is comfortable with the updated position.

Overweight rating retained. Target price falls to $1.66 from $1.74.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.39
If BPT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 21.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.90 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 26.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of 22.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CAR GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $35.20

Goldman Sachs rates ((CAR)) as Buy (1) –

CAR Group’s FY24 result broadly met Goldman Sachs’ forecasts and FY25 guidance was largely in line for growth but missed the broker’s margin forecasts.

FY25 trading kicked off on a positive note giving heft to management’s confidence in earnings growth guidance.

The company posted strong performances across all divisions.

Adjustments to EPS forecasts for FY25-FY27 range between a rise of 2% and a fall of -1%.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases -1% to $40.90 from $41.40.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $40.90 Current Price is $35.20 Difference: $5.7
If CAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.15, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.3, implying annual growth of 46.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 110.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.3, implying annual growth of 15.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW    CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.65

Jarden rates ((CLW)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden believes Charter Hall Long WALE REIT is making all the right moves to support a “trough in sentiment”.

The broker likes the asset divestment program and stronger capital position with a $50m buyback a tip of the hat to shareholders, even if it is small in nature.

The weighted average cost of debt of 4% sits well below the 5.5%-6% of marginal cost of debt. Jarden expects the gap to narrow and FY26/FY27 growth to be adversely impacted.

Underweight rating and $3.60 target remain.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If CLW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.62, suggesting downside of -0.8%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of -2.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $8.38

Jarden rates ((DTL)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden downgrades its rating for Data#3 to Neutral from Overweight on account of FY25 downside risk associated with losing a key Federal Government Microsoft contract and a lower government consultant spend in Queensland.

The broker also highlights the upcoming Queensland election, noting Data#3 has historically experienced deferral of IT spending during such periods.

The $8.65 target is unchanged.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $8.38 Difference: $0.27
If DTL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting downside of -2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 27.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 16.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of 7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUG    DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $2.89

Wilsons rates ((DUG)) as Overweight (1) –

Dug Technology has signed an exclusive agreement with Baltimore Aircoil Company for the global license of its DUG Cool technology, allowing Baltimore Aircoil to use, manufacture, market and sell and the technology to its data centre customers.

Dug will earn 2.5% royalties on net sales of Baltimore Aircoil’s immersion cool tanks for Dug’s patent rights; and 2.5% on net sales of the immersion cooling tanks for ongoing technical assistance to drive commercialisation.

Wilsons doubts the agreement will have a meaningful impact on market forecasts, viewing it as more of a “blue-sky” deal given demand for the technology is likely to increase over time as GenAI demands higher computational power (the broker observes most of Nvidia’s most advanced chips do not yet need liquid immersion cooling and what we are observing is preparation ahead of scaling).

Overweight rating and $3.58 target price retained.

This report was published on August 7, 2024.

Target price is $3.58 Current Price is $2.89 Difference: $0.69
If DUG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EMR    EMERALD RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.66

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights an overview from Emerald Resources which provides for a strategy to bring online a second Cambodian mine at Memot and a new mine at Dingo Range in the next two years.

This would boost annual production to around 300kozpa from around 115kozpa which could be funded via cashflow.

Buy rating with a $4.50 target price.

This report was published on August 5, 2024.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.84
If EMR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.53.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.25.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVT    EVT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $11.17

Jarden rates ((EVT)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Due to much better hotel market conditions and an improving outlook for cinemas, Jarden upgrades its rating for EVT Ltd to Buy from Overweight. The broker sees upside risk to FY24 results.

While Thredbo is having weak snowfall to start the year, the analysts suggest improving conditions may surprise investors who are currently concerned by the 1H FY25 outlook.

The target rises to $12.44 from $11.31. 

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $12.44 Current Price is $11.17 Difference: $1.27
If EVT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNE    GENESIS ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $2.03

Jarden rates ((GNE)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Prior to Genesis Energy’s FY24 results due on August 22, Jarden anticipates a rebound in earnings following a problematic year and upgrades its rating to Buy from Overweight.

From among Jarden’s coverage of four listed Gentailers, Genesis is expected to benefit most from a falling yield environment. 

The broker’s target rises to NZ$2.82 from NZ$2.78 on a higher near-term earnings outlook as the company maximises its coal
stockpile into the elevated wholesale price period.

The broker forecasts FY24 earnings (EBITDA) of NZ$406m, below managemet’s guidance for between NZ$410-415m.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Current Price is $2.03. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.92 cents and EPS of 6.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.29 cents and EPS of 7.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.19.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLI    HELIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $3.88

Goldman Sachs rates ((HLI)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs tinkers with Helia Group’s EPS forecasts heading into the FY24 result to reflect mark-to-market for cash rates.

This results in a small upgrade to investment income, which is partly offset by financing costs, advises the broker.

Neutral rating retained. Target price edges up to $4.55 from $4.35.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.67
If HLI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.16.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.05.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JAN    JANISON EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.22

Wilsons rates ((JAN)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons takes action on Janison Education’s -14% earnings (EBITDA) miss on its FY24 preliminary results heading into the FY24 audited results due on August 19, cutting the target price to 25c from 36c, although the broker expects it will revisit these numbers post the result.

Wilsons assesses the update as broadly meeting its forecasts with revenue and solutions/assessments in line with expectations.

The broker sheeted the ‘miss’ back to weaker than forecast gross profit margin and expected continued pressure on the gross profit margin with the increase in the NSW Department of Education contract.

Market weight rating retained.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.03
If JAN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.47.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $75.93

Goldman Sachs rates ((JBH)) as Sell (5) –

JB Hi-Fi’s June-half result outpaced Goldman Sachs by 9.5% thanks to a solid beat in gross profit margins courtesy Home Applicances and TV.

The broker observes mobile growth benefited from strong promotional support from Apple and comparable sales rose 3.8% in the June quarter, and 2.7% in July.

Sell rating retained on valuation. Target price rises to $54.50 from $52.90.

This report was published on August 13, 2024.

Target price is $52.90 Current Price is $75.93 Difference: minus $23.03 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $69.62, suggesting downside of -8.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 251.00 cents and EPS of 385.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 405.7, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 277.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 255.00 cents and EPS of 390.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.0, implying annual growth of 6.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 319.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $153.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity points to a robust 2Q24 earnings report for Light & Wonder which is above expectations because of strong land-based gaming growth.

Cashflow was softer, the analyst notes, due to -$32m in legal contingencies and some working capital “headwinds” with higher capex.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price raised to $180 from $175.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $180.00 Current Price is $153.67 Difference: $26.33
If LNW meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $179.80, suggesting upside of 17.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 339.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 403.3, implying annual growth of 49.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 492.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.8, implying annual growth of 38.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

Light & Wonder’s June-half result outpaced consensus’ and Jarden’s forecasts, the company posting more than 1000 net installs at higher fees per day, with growth recorded across North America, Australia and Asia.

Revenues rose 32%, thanks to a 24% jump in volumes and a 6% rise in the average selling price. Only table games retreated.

The broker now spies upside risk should the company’s execution outpace expectations.

EPS forecasts rise 1.5% across FY24 to FY26

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $176.00 from $167.00.

This report was published on August 9, 2024.

Target price is $176.00 Current Price is $153.67 Difference: $22.33
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $179.80, suggesting upside of 17.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 449.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 403.3, implying annual growth of 49.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 605.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 556.8, implying annual growth of 38.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOT    LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.24

Petra Capital rates ((LOT)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital highlights ASX uranium equities are down year-to-date compared to the U308 contract price which has risen 18% on low volumes.

The broker believes uranium stocks have the potential to rally with any uranium spot price rises, which is believed to be most likely given term contracting volumes need to play catch up.

Lotus Resources is one of preferred companies with a 41c target price and Buy rating.

Petra Capital thinks the company’s risk profile has improved post the mine development agreement for Kayelekera.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.17
If LOT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 80.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 80.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC    LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $6.11

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LYC)) as Hold (3) –

Lynas Rare Earths announced increases in resources and ore reserves at Mt Weld, Canaccord Genuity notes.

The broker states stage one construction at Mt Weld is finished with commissioning beginning and stage 2 of construction is due to be finished by the middle of 2025.

Hold rating and $6.25 target price.

This report was published on August 5, 2024.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $6.11 Difference: $0.14
If LYC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.69, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 87.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -80.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 92.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 101.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of 157.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR    MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $1.96

Jarden rates ((MGR)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden acknowledges the headwinds facing Mirvac Group as well as the lower-than-expected FY25 guidance at the FY24 results.

The broker believes the company has undertaken a few positive initiatives including strengthening its capital structure, de-risking its development pipeline while trying to negotiate the challenges of the residential market.

Notably, interest expenses were higher than forecast in FY24 and lower trading profits reduced FY25 guidance.

Overweight rating and $2.20 target unchanged.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.24
If MGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 7.8%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of 14.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCK    NICK SCALI LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $14.82

Jarden rates ((NCK)) as Buy (1) –

Nick Scali’s FY24 trading result nosed out consensus and Jarden observes a strong beat on gross profit margins brought net profit after tax into line with consensus and outpaced Jarden’s forecasts by 6%.

But tougher comps and weakness in New Zealand combined with the prospect of rising UK losses triggered a market sell-off, which the broker considers to be unjustified.

Jarden maintains June-half margins point to upside risk and the removal of freight overhang, and suggests the company is in a good position to benefit from an improvement in consumer sentiment as it gains scale in the UK.

The broker observes the margin beat more than offset a slowing store rollout.

EPS forecasts fall sharply across FY25 to FY27 to reflect a deferral of UK profitability to FY27; lower forecast store numbers for FY25; and an expected easing in like-for-like sales growth; all only partly offset by gross profit margins.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $16.52 from $15.40 to reflect forecast upgrades to gross profit margins. 

This report was published on August 9, 2024.

Target price is $16.52 Current Price is $14.82 Difference: $1.7
If NCK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.26, suggesting upside of 9.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 82.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.4, implying annual growth of -9.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 92.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $14.30

Jarden rates ((NST)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden’s site visit to KCGM has left the broker with a more conservative view of the ramp-up of the dual underground mines and other growth capital expenditure.

While maintaining KCGM remains a world-class asset with strong management, the broker surmises the fact that guidance has remained stable in the face of rising ore grades suggests a slower ramp-up is on the cards.

The broker increases its capital expenditure forecasts and defers its ramp-up expectations.

Rating is downgraded to Underweight from Overweight on valuation as the broker’s target price slides to $12.30 from $13.20.

This report was published on August 9, 2024.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $14.30 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.51, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 57.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 15.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 71.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.8, implying annual growth of 70.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS    NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $42.57

Goldman Sachs rates ((NWS)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs views the News Corp quarter result as “strong” including robust Dow Jones subscription revenues and an improved contribution from REA Group in FY25.

Goldman Sachs revises EPS forecasts for FY25 by 4% and 3% in FY26. Buy rating and $48.90 target unchanged.

This report was published on August 12, 2024.

Target price is $48.90 Current Price is $42.57 Difference: $6.33
If NWS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.20, suggesting upside of 1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 132.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 123.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 149.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 152.7, implying annual growth of 23.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $16.19

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

QBE Insurance reported a “noisy” 1H24 result, according to Goldman Sachs. The broker observes the rate cycle is slowing and the operating ratio met estimates.

FY25 profit is downgraded by -6%, the analyst highlights, from lower yields, tax and non core losses remaining.

A Buy rating with a $21 target price.

This report was published on August 12, 2024.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $16.19 Difference: $4.81
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.79, suggesting upside of 16.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 158.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 170.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.9, implying annual growth of 8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

QBE Insurance’s June-half result outpaced Jarden’s forecasts by 5.8%, thanks mainly to stronger underwriting, but top-line growth fell -0.5% shy of the broker due to stronger competition; $350m of portfolio sales across Australia Pacific and North America; and weaker crop volumes.

Management reiterated FY24 guidance of 93.5%, but the broker takes a cautious approach as rates ease expecting competition to further dampen volumes.

EPS forecasts fall -5.6% for FY24; and -7.3% for FY25. Buy rating retained on valuation. Target price falls to $19.55 from $21.10.

This report was published on August 9, 2024.

Target price is $19.55 Current Price is $16.19 Difference: $3.36
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.79, suggesting upside of 16.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 162.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 174.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 172.9, implying annual growth of 8.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $202.80

Goldman Sachs rates ((REA)) as Buy (1) –

REA Group reported a “solid” FY24 result, according to Goldman Sachs.

The broker views FY25 guidance as higher than expected and is forecasting a further increase in depreciation and amortisation in FY26.

Goldman Sachs revises EPS forecasts by -3% for FY25 and -4% for FY26. Buy rating is unchanged. Target price lowered -1% to $221.

This report was published on August 12, 2024.

Target price is $221.00 Current Price is $202.80 Difference: $18.2
If REA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $215.17, suggesting upside of 6.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 215.00 cents and EPS of 392.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 51.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 430.3, implying annual growth of 87.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 240.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 255.00 cents and EPS of 464.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 509.9, implying annual growth of 18.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 278.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((REA)) as Downgrade to Sell from Underweight (5) –

REA Group’s FY24 result met forecasts but Jarden suspects a consensus downgrade may be in the wings and cuts its rating to Sell from Underweight. Target price eases to $161.00 from $164.00.

The broker’s concern relates to market listing volumes, which are becoming more difficult to predict and could be a swing factor for FY25, says Jarden.

Management guided to a flat outcome, which the broker doubts will be good enough for consensus given it translates to larger associated losses and higher D&A.

In the end, it comes down to valuation, says the broker, and the share price appears toppy. It would take a structural lift to housing turnover or higher new product penetration or inroads in India to shift the dial, says Jarden.

This report was published on August 9, 2024.

Target price is $161.00 Current Price is $202.80 Difference: minus $41.8 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $215.17, suggesting upside of 6.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 223.40 cents and EPS of 420.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 430.3, implying annual growth of 87.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 240.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 255.30 cents and EPS of 479.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 509.9, implying annual growth of 18.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 278.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RKN    RECKON LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $0.55

Taylor Collison rates ((RKN)) as Outperform & Accumulate (2) –

Reckon’s June-half result appears to have fallen short of Taylor Collison’s forecasts as growth in cloud users and subscription revenue was offset by a fall in desktop subscription revenue. 

Free cash flow of $3.5m missed the broker’s forecast of $4.3m but the broker still reads it as proof of the company’s ability to produce solid cash flow, and expects this will translate into a 2.5c fully franked dividend in September.

EPS forecasts fall sharply for FY24 and FY25.

The broker appreciates the recovery in growth post the one-off decline in non-paying payroll customers. 

Outperform rating retained. 

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Current Price is $0.55. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 3.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.10.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.79.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPK    SPARK NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.01

Jarden rates ((SPK)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden downgrades Spark New Zealand to Neutral from Outperform on valuation.

The previous upgrade was based on valuation, observes the broker, after a recent strong sell-off. That value gap has now been largely eliminated.

The broker still appreciates the company’s core mobile business and expects it will be fairly resilient, although the company’s cyclical earnings exposure means it is unlikely to emerge unscathed from the macro environment, says Jarden.

FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts are unchanged. Target price is steady at NZ$4.67.

This report was published on August 7, 2024.

Current Price is $4.01. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.38 cents and EPS of 21.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.57.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.92 cents and EPS of 21.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.26.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL    TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $13.09

Goldman Sachs rates ((TCL)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs retains a Neutral rating and $13.10 target price for Transurban Group post the FY24 earnings report.

Reported traffic, revenue and EBITDA were in line with the broker’s forecasts and consensus.

Notably, cost growth is expected at around 4% for FY25; at the lower end of the guidance range.

The broker notes the Logan West upgrade is progressing with uncertainty around tolling and timing. The NSW toll review is also an ongoing uncertainty for investors.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $13.09 Difference: $0.01
If TCL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.45, suggesting upside of 2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 187.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of 224.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 81.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 15.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((TCL)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Transurban Group’s FY24 result broadly met consensus forecasts and appears to have pleased Jarden. FY25 dividend guidance was in line, implying a 5.1% yield.

The broker appreciates the company’s cost control but expects uncertainty surrounding the NSW Toll Review and the company’s M&A plans will continue to weight.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight, the broker suspecting recent share price weakness should set a floor for the company, given the dividend yield. 

Target price falls to $12.40 from $12.70 to reflect earnings (EBITDA) downgrades of roughly -1% between FY25-FY27. FY25 EPS forecasts fall sharply.

This report was published on August 8, 2024.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $13.09 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.45, suggesting upside of 2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 80.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.2, implying annual growth of 224.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 68.30 cents and EPS of 23.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of 15.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don’t have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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