Weekly Reports | Jun 10 2025
This story features BETMAKERS TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BET
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday June 2 to Friday June 6, 2025
Total Upgrades: 7
Total Downgrades: 10
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.61%; Hold 32.07%; Sell 6.32%
In the week ending Friday, June 6, 2025, FNArena tracked seven upgrades and ten downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
The tables below show negative changes to average target prices and earnings forecasts outweighed increases across the board.
Tabcorp Holdings was the standout in the earnings upgrade table after Morgan Stanley forecast upside risk to FY26 earnings, citing good positioning to improve retail profitability through changes to venue commission structures and targeted product innovation.
A strategic pivot is underway to enhance monetisation in the retail network, noted the broker, including reducing commissions paid to pubs and clubs and reinvesting within the existing cost envelope rather than recycling savings into unrelated areas.
Reporting on money making ideas from stockbrokers and other experts, FNArena’s Treasure Chest article last week highlighted Tabcorp at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/03/treasure-chest-tabcorp-holdings/
On the other side of the coin, brokers lowered the average target price by circa -62% for global provider of international student placement services and English language testing, IDP Education.
Management issued a hefty profit warning, citing ongoing policy uncertainty in key destination markets, prompting Morgans, Morgan Stanley, and Ord Minnett to downgrade their ratings to Hold (or equivalent) from Buy.
More positively, Macquarie remained at Outperform, noting negative impacts were due to cyclical issues rather than a structural industry shift. UBS also upgraded to Buy from Hold, stressing the company remains a high-quality business, suggesting the current operating environment is nearing trough conditions.
For more detail around all broker views on IDP Education see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/06/idp-education-surely-it-cannot-get-any-worse/
Nufarm also had a bad week, coming in ahead of IDP Education on the negative change to earnings list with an average fall of around -68% for FY25.
This company is more exposed to the downcycle across agriculture stocks, noted Macquarie, due to its weak balance sheet.
Ongoing uncertainty around earnings as well as the balance sheet is expected to persist, with the broker noting the company’s asset-backed lending facility is covenant-light (fewer protections or restrictions for lenders) and not scheduled for refinancing until late-2027.
Recently Nufarm’s interim result missed consensus forecasts, driven by weaker earnings from the Seeds division due to a decline in fish oil prices impacting its Omega-3 business as further explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/26/seeds-of-doubt-for-nufarm/
While we are on negative street, average targets for Syrah Resources and Treasury Wine Estates also fell by circa -26% and 9%, respectively. The appearance of Syrah Resources is the result of FNArena removing Shaw and Partners from our monitoring (we no longer believe this broker is still actively on the case) and thus best ignored within this context.
Management at Treasury Wine Estates lowered FY25 earnings guidance though Morgans noted updated guidance is still marginally above the consensus estimate.
As pointed out by this broker, the winemaker’s downgrade was due to weaker US Premium wine sales, particularly 19 Crimes below US$15 per bottle, though Luxury portfolios such as Penfolds appear to be tracking to plan.
In addition, management has been advised by its current distributor, RNDC, it will cease operations in early-September for California, the largest wine consumption state in the US.
While this outcome will not impact FY25 results, Ord Minnett noted the FY26 performance for the Americas division will be negatively impacted, especially if RNDC exits additional states.
Management is looking to restructure operations into a new Global Premium division from FY26, offering clearer visibility into Treasury Americas’ luxury growth and margin profile.
Turning to increases in average target prices, here shipbuilder and defence contractor Austal led the gains with a rise of just under 9%.
As Australia’s largest defence exporter, Austal delivers design, manufacturing, and through-life support services to both defence and commercial clients.
Bell Potter was solely responsible for the uplift in average target, following a review of its forecasts in light of Austal’s strong share price performance year to date.
The broker raised its target to $5.60 from $4.45 and downgraded to Hold from Buy.
Bell Potter analysts anticipate a strong FY25 result and have upgraded FY26 revenue forecasts and beyond by low single digits, primarily reflecting increased shipbuilding activity in the Australasian region.
Following the re-election of the Labor Government in Australia, the broker has increased confidence the Submarine Support Agreement (SSA) with the US, and associated programs, will proceed according to plan and remain on schedule.
The SSA is part of the broader AUKUS partnership, under which Australia collaborates with the US (and the UK) on nuclear-powered submarine development, technology sharing, and defence industrial cooperation.
Global mining services provider Perenti and Brickworks (involved in building products, property, and investments) follow next with rises in average targets of over 6% apiece.
Perenti’s underground mining specialist, Barminco, is the primary contractor at Zone 5, a major copper mining project in Botswana. However, Barminco will cease its operations at Zone 5 on June 30 after deciding not to pursue a renewal under existing terms as the project was not meeting Perenti’s internal financial benchmarks.
While recent contract awards are unlikely to fully offset the void from Zone 5 in FY26, Citi believes management is well placed in the near-term with a robust pipeline of opportunities and potential uptick from Drilling Services.
After rolling forward the company’s valuation and applying a higher multiple to reflect improved confidence in free cash generation, and potential crystallisation of upside catalysts, the broker raised its target to $1.90 from $1.60 and maintained a Buy rating.
It was a busy week for analysts covering Brickworks following the proposed merger with Washington H. Soul Pattinson.
Neutral-rated Macquarie noted the deal will create a $14bn diversified investment group, combining Soul Patts’ portfolio of private and listed assets with an increased property weighting from Brickworks, bringing this asset class to 19% of the merged entity’s portfolio.
Ord Minnett suggested cost synergies will be modest but highlighted the strong net cash position of the combined group, enhancing its capacity to pursue future investments. This broker raised its target price for Brickworks to $34.90 from $30 but downgraded to Hold from Accumulate, citing recent share price strength.
Under the proposal, a new ASX-listed entity (“TopCo”) will be formed to acquire the shares of both Soul Patts and Brickworks. Soul Patts shareholders will receive one TopCo share per share held, while Brickworks shareholders will receive 0.82 TopCo shares per share.
Longer term, the broker believes Brickworks shareholders will gain exposure to a larger, better capitalised, and more diversified investment vehicle.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.61% of the total, versus 32.07% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.32%.
Upgrade
BETMAKERS TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED ((BET)) Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Ord Minnett believes Betmakers Technology has turned the corner, supported by a $13.5m capital raise which strengthens the balance sheet and funds the proposed acquisition of Las Vegas Dissemination Company (LVDC).
The broker suggests April earnings (EBITDA) of $0.9m demonstrate momentum, with the placement resolving prior investor concerns and positioning the business for sustained growth.
The company is expected to generate $1.3m in free cash flow (FCF) in FY26, rising to $6.3m in FY27, with the broker’s cash forecast to bottom at around $16m in 1Q26 before recovering.
Ord Minnett raises its target price to 23c from 21c. Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy.
FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED ((FPH)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi and Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/2/0
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s FY25 revenue was 1% above consensus and net profit beat by 5%, driven by higher gross margin, lower opex and forex benefit.
FY26 net profit guidance was -3% below consensus, with revenue dependent mainly on the severity of the virus season.
The main news was the assumed US tariff impact on NZ-made hospital products is now expected to be lower than expected at just 10%, which led to Citi upgrading FY26 EPS by 8%.
The tariff will, however, delay margin recovery by a year and the broker expects 65% gross margin in FY28.
Target rises to NZ$35.50 from NZ$32.00 on EPS revisions and valuation roll-forward. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
Morgan Stanley raises its price target for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare to NZ$38.90 from NZ$36.70 ($35.90 from $34) and upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight.
Attractive medium-to-long-term earnings growth is expected to be supported by solid revenue expansion and margin recovery.
The broker notes FY25 results were followed by an around -4% share price decline due to softer FY26 guidance.
Regardless, the broker points to new applications revenue rising by 18% in constant currency and anaesthesia penetration continuing to scale.
Gross margin improved 181bps to 62.9% in FY25, with further gains forecast in FY26, despite expected headwinds from tariffs and currency, note the analysts. Industry view: In-Line.
IDP EDUCATION LIMITED ((IEL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0
UBS upgrades IDP Education to Buy from Neutral with a revised target price of $4.95 from $12. The analyst believes the company is a quality business despite losing some market share in yesterday’s trading update and earnings downgrade.
Management’s FY25 earnings before interest and tax guidance at $115m$125m is below the analyst’s forecast by -30% at the midpoint and compares to consensus at $171m.
IDP flagged a decline in FY25 volumes by -28% to -30% year-on-year for student placement and down -18% to -20% for language testing.
Overhead costs in 2H25 are expected to fall by -5% on a year earlier. UBS flags annual visa issuance growth down -10% for Australia, -9% for the UK, -65% for Canada, and down -27% for the US.
UBS believes the current trading conditions are closer to a trough and is forecasting a “conservative” recovery in FY27/FY28.
See also IEL downgrade.
INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED ((IFL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/2/0
UBS upgrades Insignia Financial to Buy from Neutral, raising the target price to $4.50 from $4.00, following a -28% decline in the share price since March 7, when the board granted due diligence access to Bain and CC Capital.
Bain has since withdrawn, citing macroeconomic uncertainty.
The market appears to have lost confidence in a deal materialising; however, the company stated CC Capital is continuing to “actively work towards making a binding bid for the company”.
The broker notes a floor price of $5 was set by the board. The analyst has increased EPS forecasts by 3.5% for FY25 and 28% for FY26, reversing prior mark-to-market downgrades stemming from the April market decline.
JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((JDO)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/1/0
Macquarie upgrades Judo Capital to Outperform from Neutral with a $1.75 target price from $1.70 post the investor day where management confirmed FY25 and FY26 guidance and pointed to an acceleration in book growth.
Judo advanced the loan book by around $12m in May, which tempered concerns FY25 targets could not be achieved, while recent headwinds have been subsiding. The broker also notes an improvement in funding spreads with repriced deposits.
Macquarie has a higher level of confidence in near-term margins and earnings, raising EPS estimates by 1% in FY25, 4% in FY26, and 3% in FY27.
Judo Capital is expected to announce FY25 results on August 19.
See also JDO downgrade.
LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/2
Ord Minnett sees Lynas Rare Earths as a beneficiary of the volatile and uncertain rare earths (REO) environment.
The broker expects China decoupling to occur even if a US-China trade war is averted, and expects the company to benefit from greater demand and better pricing.
The broker notes the company’s March quarter report suggests it needs both volume and stronger pricing to offset fixed costs, and the REO environment offers scope for both.
Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target unchanged at $8.70.
Downgrade
APA GROUP ((APA)) Downgrade to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/2/1
The analyst at Morgans met with management of APA Group and remains cautious due to a significant earnings cliff looming in under ten years, as the initial term of the Wallumbilla Gladstone Pipeline (WGP) contract expires.
For shareholders, the broker enacts a ‘TRIM’ into current share price strength designation. FNArena assumes a Reduce rating now applies, down from Hold.
Management described current conditions as stable and noted increasing government support for gas infrastructure, particularly in Queensland and the Northern Territory.
The broker observes slow progress on the Pilbara build-out but pointed to rising opportunities in gas-fired power projects. Basslink, acquired for -$758m, is expected to remain unregulated, adding earnings volatility.
Morgans raises the target price to $7.36 from $7.21.
AUSTAL LIMITED ((ASB)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/2/0
Bell Potter expects Austal to post a strong 2025 result, with earnings (EBIT) forecast at $85m on $1.67bn in revenue, equating to a 5.1% margin and net profit of $56.1m, implying earnings per share growth above 100%.
The broker’s earnings projection surpasses both company guidance of not less than $80m and the consensus estimate of $84.8m.
The analysts anticipate growth in A&NZ shipbuilding activity, following increased confidence in program timing under the re-elected Labor government.
Valuation revisions by the broker include a reduced WACC and higher EV/earnings and price/earnings multiples, reflecting improved macro conditions and Austal’s net cash advantage over peers.
Potential inclusion in the ASX200 in the September 2025 rebalance is also noted.
Bell Potter raises its target price to $5.60 from $4.45 and downgrades to Hold from Buy.
BRICKWORKS LIMITED ((BKW)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/3/0
Ord Minnett downgrades Brickworks to Hold from Accumulate following recent share price gains.
The proposed merger with Washington H Soul Pattinson is expected to unlock value by simplifying the capital structure, notes the broker, eliminating cross-holdings, and boosting liquidity and scale.
Brickworks shareholders will receive 0.82 shares in the new ASX-listed entity (“TopCo”) for each Brickworks share held, implying a value of $30.28, or a 10.1% premium to the 30 May closing price, explains Ord Minnett.
Cost synergies are expected to be modest, though the combined group will have a strong net cash position to pursue new investments, suggest the analysts.
No updates have been made to the broker’s financial forecasts.
GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0
UBS upgrades its 2026 earnings (EBITDA) forecast for GrainCorp by 18% to $330m, based on ABARES’ east coast crop estimate of 27.2mt and the broker’s own revised assumption of 30mt.
This implies upside versus consensus of $309-314m, though the analysts see limited further uplift given soft global grain and canola margins unless supply tightens.
Strong net cash and a capital return program including an attractive dividend yield and $75m buyback offer support, offset by capex of -$160-180m and weaker margin outlook, outlines UBS.
UBS lowers the target price to $7.95 from $8.60 after reducing 2027-28 forecasts by -3-5% and modeling long-term earnings -13-16% below GrainCorp’s through-the-cycle guidance. The broker’s rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy.
IDP EDUCATION LIMITED ((IEL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans and Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0
IDP Education’s FY25 earnings guidance has been cut sharply, with 2H25 earnings (EBIT) expected around $27m, well below the previously guided greater than $77m, notes Morgans.
Global policy tightening and weak student placement volumes are weighing, explains the broker.
The analysts note FY25 Student Placement and IELTS volumes are expected to fall -28-30% and -18-20% year-on-year respectively, with Canada particularly soft and UK uncertainty potentially crimping the critical October intake.
A cost review is underway and China IELTS approval remains a potential earnings lever, notes the broker.
Morgans downgrades FY25-27 EPS forecasts by -35% to -47%. Downgrade to Hold from Buy and target reduced to $4.15 from $13.
IDP Education downgraded FY25 student placement volumes following a very weak May/June pipeline build, which are its key months for intake in the UK, Canada and the US, and for the second semester in Australia.
The company cited heightened policy uncertainty in all the countries as a reason.
Morgan Stanley reckons the key debates going forward centre around the extent to which the May/June volumes will impact FY26, the company’s ability to increase fees to offset volumes, cost management and potential for broad-based recovery beyond FY26.
The broker cut FY26-27 EBIT forecasts by around -50%.
Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target cut $4.25 from $17.95. Industry view is In-Line.
IDP Education expects FY25 language testing volumes to decline -18-20% and student placement volumes to fall -28-30% year-on-year, significantly weaker than previously assumed, highlights Ord Minnett.
Ord Minnett notes a rapid deterioration in trading since early May, particularly in Australia, where visa applications are now seen as a more accurate lead indicator.
FY25 guidance implies to the analyst second-half earnings (EBIT) of $27m at the mid-point, a steep drop from earlier quasi-guidance of above $77m.
The broker’s EPS forecasts are reduced by -34%, -54% and -40% for FY25-27, and long-term volume assumptions have been lowered due to heightened policy uncertainty.
Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Buy and cuts the target price to $8.00 from $15.50.
See also IEL upgrade.
JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((JDO)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0
Following the 2025 investor day, Morgans has increased confidence in Judo Capital’s business model and earnings outlook, noting strong management execution and an improving net interest margin (NIM) profile.
Loan growth guidance remains intact with $2-3bn per year targeted over the next few years, underpinned by banker expansion and improved productivity, explains the broker.
It’s also felt the recent uptick in May lending offers a positive signal after weaker growth earlier in 2025.
The improving NIM has been aided by higher front book margins, improved funding mix, and declining term deposit spreads, explains the analyst. However, the new warehouse lending product is expected to dilute margin while lifting returns on equity.
Morgans retains the $1.75 target price and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy as the broker adjusts to its new ratings methodology.
See also JDO upgrade.
MA FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MAF)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0
MA Financial acquired IP Generation, a real estate investment manager specialising in shopping centres, for around -$90.4m.
Morgans reckons the deal is EPS-accretive on a full-year basis. IP Generations’ exposure to shopping centres aligns well with the company’s focus on retail assets and its plan to create a leading integrated real estate asset manager.
The deal will boost AUM to over $12bn, keeping the company on track to meet the FY26 target of $14bn. FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 2%.
Target rises to $8.23 from $8.11. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.
MEGAPORT LIMITED ((MP1)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/1
Ord Minnett reviews Megaport’s go-to-market strategy and expects revenue growth to continue, but sees key metrics such as net revenue retention (NRR) and annual recurring revenue (ARR) requiring further investment.
Any material acceleration in revenue growth will likely be deferred to FY27 from FY26, suggests the analyst.
FY26 revenue guidance of 14% revenue growth matches FY25 and the broker’s estimate, underpinned by new products, reduced churn from longer-term contracts, and salesforce expansion.
Ord Minnett estimates each 1 percentage point gain in retention adds around $2m to revenue and anticipates stronger returns post FY26 from deeper product and data centre penetration.
Despite these drivers, the broker believes the upside is already priced in following a 60% share price rally over two months.
Ord Minnett retains its $11.50 target price and downgrades to Sell from Hold.
| Total Recommendations |
Recommendation Changes |
|
Broker Recommendation Breakup |
|
Broker Rating |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Target Price |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
|
Earnings Forecast |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
|
Technical limitations
If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.
Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms
CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APA - APA GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASB - AUSTAL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BET - BETMAKERS TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BKW - BRICKWORKS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FPH - FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GNC - GRAINCORP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IEL - IDP EDUCATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IFL - INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JDO - JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LYC - LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MAF - MA FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MP1 - MEGAPORT LIMITED