Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 28-11-25

Weekly Reports | Dec 01 2025

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday November 24 to Friday November 28, 2025
Total Upgrades: 12
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.30%; Hold 30.77%; Sell 7.92%

For the week ending Friday, November 28, 2025, FNArena tracked twelve ratings upgrades and fourteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Lifestyle footwear business Accent Group received no fewer than five downgrades in ratings from separate brokers. Fellow retailers Temple & Webster, Lovisa Holdings, and Kogan.com are also listed in the week's top five for falls in average target prices.

Management at Accent Group noted lifestyle footwear sales have been soft, though sports-related categories continue to perform well. While footwear represents around 60% exposure for the group, sport, fashion and fashion accessories are also represented.

Overall, earnings guidance at the midpoint came in -23% below the prior consensus forecast for reasons best explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/26/sweeping-downgrades-hit-accent-group/

Sports science and analytics company Catapult Sports heads up the table for negative change to average earnings forecast after interim results disappointed.

FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor provides the ‘miss’ assessment for Catapult at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/28/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-28-11-2025/

Temple and Webster follows Catapult and Accent Group on the earnings downgrade table following a trading update showing revenue growth slowing sharply, with year-to-date growth of 18% versus 28% in the first six weeks to August.

UBS attributed weakness to a softening in the broader macro consumer demand environment. Given the company’s valuation is considered as more realistic after a -32% share price fall on the day of the trading update, the rating was upgraded to Neutral from Sell after lowering its target to $14.80 from $17.70.

Citi slashed its target to $15.38 from $34.32 and downgraded to Neutral from Buy. It's felt sustainable customer growth is now less certain, limiting confidence in the longer-term trajectory.

Global network-as-a-service provider Megaport and telecommunications company/internet service provider Superloop are next with falls in average earnings forecasts of -20% and -13%, respectively.

While the change in forecast for Megaport should be largely ignored, as the small numbers involved exaggerate the percentage move, Morgans did make some interesting points on the wider Technology sector.

Academic models suggest lower terminal growth should accompany a reduced cost of capital (lower interest rates) in a softer economic environment, leaving valuations broadly unchanged, yet the broker finds price-earnings multiples are still strongly linked to interest rate movements.

Holding all else equal, a -50bps reduction in Morgans’ assumed risk-free rate lifts technology valuations by around 13% and adds roughly seven PE points to fair value.

The broker’s preferred technology names under research coverage are Megaport and TechnologyOne which are rated Buy and Accumulate, respectively.

In classifieds, Seek and REA Group remain the analysts’ top picks, both with Accumulate ratings.

Macquarie retained its Outperform rating for Superloop but reduced its target to $3.30 from $3.55 after trimming FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts by -4% and FY28 by -3% after the broker tempered its user growth assumptions for the Consumer segment.

Returning to average targets, here fast-fashion jewellery retailer Lovisa Holdings and Serko (specialising in corporate travel management and expense solutions) last week experienced falls of -12% and -10%, respectively.

Lovisa’s AGM trading update showed total like-for-like sales for the first 20 weeks of FY26 rose by 26.2% year-on-year versus 10% a year earlier, but a slowdown was noted to 25% from weeks 9-20 compared to 28% growth in the first 8 weeks.

UBS lowered its EPS forecasts by -7.7% for FY26 and -9.8% for FY27 on a lower store growth forecast, reduced gross margins and higher cost of doing business/sales.

While Morgans notes retailer optimism has eased since August, confidence has turned positive for the first time in four years, supporting expectations for a stronger Black Friday and Christmas period with sales growth of around 4% year-on-year expected.

Best opportunities are seen in retailers with clear competitive advantages, expanding store footprints, and strong, resilient margins. Lovisa is among Morgans’ top picks in the sector.

Following ‘in-line’ interim results for Serko, Ord Minnett continues to believe patient investors will be rewarded.

Vault Minerals heads up both the positive change to target and earnings tables due to its recent 6.5-for-1 share consolidation.

In separate news, the miner has settled all gold forward sales contracts for the second half of FY26, fully funded from existing cash reserves and eliminated all gold hedging for that period for a total cost of -$173m.

Funded entirely from existing cash reserves of $703m on 30 September, and with no dilution, the transaction is accretive to Ord Minnett’s FY26 earnings and cash flow estimates to the tune of 26% and 17%, respectively.

Macquarie suggested this move will accelerate the shift to a largely unhedged production profile within six months.

Second-placed Minerals 260 on the positive change to target price table follows a late research update by Bell Potter. NRW Holding comes next, with Monadelphous Group further down the list.

Highlighting contractors are in an upgrade cycle, Citi noted recruitment levels have "surged" for both NRW and Monadelphous in October.

The broker was not surprised by NRW’s earnings guidance upgrade given its 95% FY26 revenue coverage and solid active tender balance, which is supported by an elevated bid-win rate.

Further, with the potential for wet weather to persist through the year, the broker thinks management is building appropriate conservatism into its revenue and earnings guidance.

Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating, citing an attractive growth outlook and valuation relative to peers.

For Monadelphous, UBS noted management (at its November 10 trading update) reported robust trading conditions for the first four months of FY26.

The company’s first half revenue guidance of around $1.5bn sits 23% above the broker's previous estimate, reflecting higher construction activity from a record FY25 order book, which rose 22% to $2.7bn.

Qube’s average target price jumped by 10% after management received an all-cash takeover offer from Macquarie Asset Management at $5.20 per share.

Directors have confirmed they intend to unanimously recommend in favour of a scheme of arrangement should the proposal progress.

Ord Minnett noted Macquarie Asset Management has been an active owner of global port and transport assets. Given the strategic nature of many of Qube’s assets, incremental third-party interest is considered a possibility.

Following Vault Minerals on the forecast earnings upgrade list is Amplitude Energy, after Macquarie updated its numbers for the 11-for-1 share consolidation, which was implemented on November 20.

Next on the list are HMC Capital, Select Harvests, and Gentrack Group.

The outlook for HMC Capital, an asset manager which manages REITs, is improving, according to Macquarie. As noted in last week’s article, the company’s shares are viewed as undervalued, even under the broker’s conservative growth assumptions.

As further explained in the Monitor, FY25 results for Select Harvests and Gentrack Group were in line with analysts’ expectations.

This week, FNArena will publish articles on both Gentrack and Web Travel, the latter receiving two upgrades by separate brokers last week after interim earnings beat the consensus estimate.

Plumbing, building and hardware supplies company Reece also received two upgrades to Hold or equivalent from Morgans and Macquarie.

Management’s AGM update showed first quarter FY26 sales ahead of expectations from a bigger branch network in A&NZ and the US, but margins remained under pressure from higher costs. Management expects soft conditions to persist in the near term.

Macquarie felt the worst is behind the company, pointing to firmer revenue momentum, with group sales up 8%, driven by a stronger-than-expected US performance and ongoing store expansion.

Reece added five A&NZ stores and ten US stores, reinforcing the broker’s confidence in the US model despite tougher competition.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.30% of the total, versus 30.77% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 7.92%.

Upgrade

AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED ((ARX)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Aroa Biosurgery delivered a first half result that was below forecasts amid a lower contribution from Tela Bio and Enform.

Morgans notes FY26 guidance has been reiterated although revises down estimates to slightly above the midpoint of the range (EBITDA of NZ$5-8m) following the downgrade at Tela Bio.

The broker highlights the current share price weakness and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate, also noting that compared with domestic peers the business is trading at attractive levels. Target edges down to $0.79 from $0.80.

CHRYSOS CORP. LIMITED ((C79)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Chrysos' update at the AGM showed revenue in FY26 to 31 October was up 54% y/y to $28.9m, beating Bell Potter's forecast. This was driven by AAC surging 274% y/y to $7.6m while MMAP was slightly down due to a temporary unit decommissioning.

AAC now makes up a larger share of revenue (26.4% vs 15.3% in FY25), the broker highlights, as exploration activity lifts sample volumes. FY26 guidance was reiterated at $80-90m revenue and $20-27m EBITDA.

Deployments sit at 41 with multiple new installs and leases secured, supporting continued rollout momentum. The broker lifted AAC forecast for FY26 and increased unit deployment estimate for 2H, resulting in a sharp rise to FY26 EPS estimate.

Target rises to $9.40 from $6.70 on a lower WACC of 8.1% vs 9.2%, and earnings revisions. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans and Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Morgans upgrades Lovisa Holdings to Buy from Accumulate despite the trading update for the first 20 weeks of FY26 coming in lower than anticipated.

Overall, total sales growth remains strong, over 20%, despite weaker sales in the last 12 weeks and a slower store rollout. Like-for-like sales rose 3.5% in the last 20 weeks versus the analyst's forecast of 5%, while total sales growth over the same period was up 26.2%.

The retailer has opened 62 new stores and closed 18 for a net of 44, resulting in a rate of 2.2 per week in FY26 versus 2.52 per week in FY25.

Morgans tweaks its EPS estimates and lowers the target price to $40 from $44.50, ascribing a valuation that aligns with market sentiment.

Macquarie notes Lovisa Holdings’ update showed softer like-for-like growth of about 2.1%, below consensus but slightly ahead of the broker's expectations. Total sales rose 26.2% in 1H26 so far as new stores continued to perform well.

The analyst notes slower store rollout and emerging competitive pressure from Harli and Harpa, though Google search interest suggests no major shift yet.

Gross margin discipline remains a key strength, in Macquarie's view, with minimal promotional risk.

Macquarie lowers its target to $37.30 from $40.90 on more conservative multiples. Following the -14% share-price fall post update, the broker upgrades Lovisa to Outperform from Neutral.

MEGAPORT LIMITED ((MP1)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Morgans revised forecasts for Megaport to reflect its recent $200m capital raising plus $20m SPP (share purchase plan), the Latitude.sh Compute-as-a-Service acquisition, and expansion into India.

Already, the 1Q26 update showed improving retention and strong momentum, with revenue up 21% y/y and annual recurring revenue 22% y/y higher, making 20%-plus growth to FY30 look conservative.

The broker expects the Latitude.sh deal to accelerate revenue/EBITDA and complement connectivity in hybrid-cloud setups. Some tempering in investor sentiment is, however, expected as higher growth capex drags near-term FCF and on peers’ weak private-cloud performance.

FY26 EBITDA forecast lifted by 59% and FY27 by 95%. Target rises to $17.00 from $16.50.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

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