Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 28-11-25

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This story features AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ARX
The company is included in ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday November 24 to Friday November 28, 2025
Total Upgrades: 12
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.30%; Hold 30.77%; Sell 7.92%

For the week ending Friday, November 28, 2025, FNArena tracked twelve ratings upgrades and fourteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Lifestyle footwear business Accent Group received no fewer than five downgrades in ratings from separate brokers. Fellow retailers Temple & Webster, Lovisa Holdings, and Kogan.com are also listed in the week’s top five for falls in average target prices.

Management at Accent Group noted lifestyle footwear sales have been soft, though sports-related categories continue to perform well. While footwear represents around 60% exposure for the group, sport, fashion and fashion accessories are also represented.

Overall, earnings guidance at the midpoint came in -23% below the prior consensus forecast for reasons best explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/26/sweeping-downgrades-hit-accent-group/

Sports science and analytics company Catapult Sports heads up the table for negative change to average earnings forecast after interim results disappointed.

FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor provides the ‘miss’ assessment for Catapult at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/28/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-28-11-2025/

Temple and Webster follows Catapult and Accent Group on the earnings downgrade table following a trading update showing revenue growth slowing sharply, with year-to-date growth of 18% versus 28% in the first six weeks to August.

UBS attributed weakness to a softening in the broader macro consumer demand environment. Given the company’s valuation is considered as more realistic after a -32% share price fall on the day of the trading update, the rating was upgraded to Neutral from Sell after lowering its target to $14.80 from $17.70.

Citi slashed its target to $15.38 from $34.32 and downgraded to Neutral from Buy. It’s felt sustainable customer growth is now less certain, limiting confidence in the longer-term trajectory.

Global network-as-a-service provider Megaport and telecommunications company/internet service provider Superloop are next with falls in average earnings forecasts of -20% and -13%, respectively.

While the change in forecast for Megaport should be largely ignored, as the small numbers involved exaggerate the percentage move, Morgans did make some interesting points on the wider Technology sector.

Academic models suggest lower terminal growth should accompany a reduced cost of capital (lower interest rates) in a softer economic environment, leaving valuations broadly unchanged, yet the broker finds price-earnings multiples are still strongly linked to interest rate movements.

Holding all else equal, a -50bps reduction in Morgans’ assumed risk-free rate lifts technology valuations by around 13% and adds roughly seven PE points to fair value.

The broker’s preferred technology names under research coverage are Megaport and TechnologyOne which are rated Buy and Accumulate, respectively.

In classifieds, Seek and REA Group remain the analysts’ top picks, both with Accumulate ratings.

Macquarie retained its Outperform rating for Superloop but reduced its target to $3.30 from $3.55 after trimming FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts by -4% and FY28 by -3% after the broker tempered its user growth assumptions for the Consumer segment.

Returning to average targets, here fast-fashion jewellery retailer Lovisa Holdings and Serko (specialising in corporate travel management and expense solutions) last week experienced falls of -12% and -10%, respectively.

Lovisa’s AGM trading update showed total like-for-like sales for the first 20 weeks of FY26 rose by 26.2% year-on-year versus 10% a year earlier, but a slowdown was noted to 25% from weeks 9-20 compared to 28% growth in the first 8 weeks.

UBS lowered its EPS forecasts by -7.7% for FY26 and -9.8% for FY27 on a lower store growth forecast, reduced gross margins and higher cost of doing business/sales.

While Morgans notes retailer optimism has eased since August, confidence has turned positive for the first time in four years, supporting expectations for a stronger Black Friday and Christmas period with sales growth of around 4% year-on-year expected.

Best opportunities are seen in retailers with clear competitive advantages, expanding store footprints, and strong, resilient margins. Lovisa is among Morgans’ top picks in the sector.

Following ‘in-line’ interim results for Serko, Ord Minnett continues to believe patient investors will be rewarded.

Vault Minerals heads up both the positive change to target and earnings tables due to its recent 6.5-for-1 share consolidation.

In separate news, the miner has settled all gold forward sales contracts for the second half of FY26, fully funded from existing cash reserves and eliminated all gold hedging for that period for a total cost of -$173m.

Funded entirely from existing cash reserves of $703m on 30 September, and with no dilution, the transaction is accretive to Ord Minnett’s FY26 earnings and cash flow estimates to the tune of 26% and 17%, respectively.

Macquarie suggested this move will accelerate the shift to a largely unhedged production profile within six months.

Second-placed Minerals 260 on the positive change to target price table follows a late research update by Bell Potter. NRW Holding comes next, with Monadelphous Group further down the list.

Highlighting contractors are in an upgrade cycle, Citi noted recruitment levels have “surged” for both NRW and Monadelphous in October.

The broker was not surprised by NRW’s earnings guidance upgrade given its 95% FY26 revenue coverage and solid active tender balance, which is supported by an elevated bid-win rate.

Further, with the potential for wet weather to persist through the year, the broker thinks management is building appropriate conservatism into its revenue and earnings guidance.

Macquarie maintained its Outperform rating, citing an attractive growth outlook and valuation relative to peers.

For Monadelphous, UBS noted management (at its November 10 trading update) reported robust trading conditions for the first four months of FY26.

The company’s first half revenue guidance of around $1.5bn sits 23% above the broker’s previous estimate, reflecting higher construction activity from a record FY25 order book, which rose 22% to $2.7bn.

Qube’s average target price jumped by 10% after management received an all-cash takeover offer from Macquarie Asset Management at $5.20 per share.

Directors have confirmed they intend to unanimously recommend in favour of a scheme of arrangement should the proposal progress.

Ord Minnett noted Macquarie Asset Management has been an active owner of global port and transport assets. Given the strategic nature of many of Qube’s assets, incremental third-party interest is considered a possibility.

Following Vault Minerals on the forecast earnings upgrade list is Amplitude Energy, after Macquarie updated its numbers for the 11-for-1 share consolidation, which was implemented on November 20.

Next on the list are HMC Capital, Select Harvests, and Gentrack Group.

The outlook for HMC Capital, an asset manager which manages REITs, is improving, according to Macquarie. As noted in last week’s article, the company’s shares are viewed as undervalued, even under the broker’s conservative growth assumptions.

As further explained in the Monitor, FY25 results for Select Harvests and Gentrack Group were in line with analysts’ expectations.

This week, FNArena will publish articles on both Gentrack and Web Travel, the latter receiving two upgrades by separate brokers last week after interim earnings beat the consensus estimate.

Plumbing, building and hardware supplies company Reece also received two upgrades to Hold or equivalent from Morgans and Macquarie.

Management’s AGM update showed first quarter FY26 sales ahead of expectations from a bigger branch network in A&NZ and the US, but margins remained under pressure from higher costs. Management expects soft conditions to persist in the near term.

Macquarie felt the worst is behind the company, pointing to firmer revenue momentum, with group sales up 8%, driven by a stronger-than-expected US performance and ongoing store expansion.

Reece added five A&NZ stores and ten US stores, reinforcing the broker’s confidence in the US model despite tougher competition.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.30% of the total, versus 30.77% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 7.92%.

Upgrade

AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED ((ARX)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Aroa Biosurgery delivered a first half result that was below forecasts amid a lower contribution from Tela Bio and Enform.

Morgans notes FY26 guidance has been reiterated although revises down estimates to slightly above the midpoint of the range (EBITDA of NZ$5-8m) following the downgrade at Tela Bio.

The broker highlights the current share price weakness and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate, also noting that compared with domestic peers the business is trading at attractive levels. Target edges down to $0.79 from $0.80.

CHRYSOS CORP. LIMITED ((C79)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Chrysos’ update at the AGM showed revenue in FY26 to 31 October was up 54% y/y to $28.9m, beating Bell Potter’s forecast. This was driven by AAC surging 274% y/y to $7.6m while MMAP was slightly down due to a temporary unit decommissioning.

AAC now makes up a larger share of revenue (26.4% vs 15.3% in FY25), the broker highlights, as exploration activity lifts sample volumes. FY26 guidance was reiterated at $80-90m revenue and $20-27m EBITDA.

Deployments sit at 41 with multiple new installs and leases secured, supporting continued rollout momentum. The broker lifted AAC forecast for FY26 and increased unit deployment estimate for 2H, resulting in a sharp rise to FY26 EPS estimate.

Target rises to $9.40 from $6.70 on a lower WACC of 8.1% vs 9.2%, and earnings revisions. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans and Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Morgans upgrades Lovisa Holdings to Buy from Accumulate despite the trading update for the first 20 weeks of FY26 coming in lower than anticipated.

Overall, total sales growth remains strong, over 20%, despite weaker sales in the last 12 weeks and a slower store rollout. Like-for-like sales rose 3.5% in the last 20 weeks versus the analyst’s forecast of 5%, while total sales growth over the same period was up 26.2%.

The retailer has opened 62 new stores and closed 18 for a net of 44, resulting in a rate of 2.2 per week in FY26 versus 2.52 per week in FY25.

Morgans tweaks its EPS estimates and lowers the target price to $40 from $44.50, ascribing a valuation that aligns with market sentiment.

Macquarie notes Lovisa Holdings’ update showed softer like-for-like growth of about 2.1%, below consensus but slightly ahead of the broker’s expectations. Total sales rose 26.2% in 1H26 so far as new stores continued to perform well.

The analyst notes slower store rollout and emerging competitive pressure from Harli and Harpa, though Google search interest suggests no major shift yet.

Gross margin discipline remains a key strength, in Macquarie’s view, with minimal promotional risk.

Macquarie lowers its target to $37.30 from $40.90 on more conservative multiples. Following the -14% share-price fall post update, the broker upgrades Lovisa to Outperform from Neutral.

MEGAPORT LIMITED ((MP1)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Morgans revised forecasts for Megaport to reflect its recent $200m capital raising plus $20m SPP (share purchase plan), the Latitude.sh Compute-as-a-Service acquisition, and expansion into India.

Already, the 1Q26 update showed improving retention and strong momentum, with revenue up 21% y/y and annual recurring revenue 22% y/y higher, making 20%-plus growth to FY30 look conservative.

The broker expects the Latitude.sh deal to accelerate revenue/EBITDA and complement connectivity in hybrid-cloud setups. Some tempering in investor sentiment is, however, expected as higher growth capex drags near-term FCF and on peers’ weak private-cloud performance.

FY26 EBITDA forecast lifted by 59% and FY27 by 95%. Target rises to $17.00 from $16.50.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

OBJECTIVE CORPORATION LIMITED ((OCL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Morgans assesses business momentum continues to build for Objective Corp and the company is well placed for profitable growth in the coming years. The recent investor briefing showcased the product, strategy and opportunity.

The broker believes the business is “best-in-class enterprise software” with a defensive government customer base. A key focus for the company is reducing the time and costs required to deploy its RegWorks solution to reduce potential barriers to adoption and time to value.

The launch of Build in Australia remains on track for March release, and there are now six foundation partners in NSW. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold in light of the recent pullback in the shares.

Target is reduced to $20.00 from $22.90.

REECE LIMITED ((REH)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans and Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/1

Reece’s AGM update showed 1Q26 sales ahead of expectations from a bigger branch network in A&NZ and the US, but margins remained under pressure from higher costs, Morgans remarks. Management expects soft conditions to persist in the near term.

The broker lifted FY26-28 sales forecasts 7% but EBIT forecasts rose just 1%. The forecasts factor in the impact of the recent off-market share buyback of $365m.

Rating upgraded to Hold from Trim. Target rises to $11.25 from $11.10, with the broker seeing the stock as fully valued at 24.2x FY26 PE.

Macquarie believes the worst is behind Reece and raises its target to $11.00 from $10.10 and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform.

The broker points to Reece’s 1Q26 update which showed firmer revenue momentum, with group sales up 8%, driven by a stronger-than-expected US performance and ongoing store expansion.

Margins remain soft, with 1Q EBITDA at 9.2% versus the broker’s prior 9.8%, as staff costs and higher D&A continue to weigh, although the analyst expects improvement from here.

Reece added five A&NZ stores and ten US stores, reinforcing Macquarie’s confidence in the US model despite tougher competition.

RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED ((RHC)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/5/0

First quarter revenue and earnings growth from Ramsay Health Care was robust and ahead of forecasts and Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight, raising the target to $34.80 from $31.30.

The upgrade is also underpinned by a potential resolution in relation to the holding in Ramsay Sante. The company has finalised the strategic review of options relating to its 52.8% holding in the French health business with an update expected by February.

Based on a more favourable financial profile of the group and simplified business scope, the broker has highlighted the potential for a re-rating through an in-specie distribution of the holding in Ramsay Sante. Industry view is In-Line.

TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED ((TPW)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Temple & Webster’s AGM update shows revenue growth slowing sharply, observes UBS, with year-to-date growth of 18% versus 28% in the first six weeks to August. The analysts attribute weakness to a softening in the broader macro consumer demand environment.

The broker now forecasts 1H26 / FY26 revenue growth of 17.5% and 17.2%, respectively, well below the 20%-plus topline growth delivered over the last five years.

UBS lowers its target price to $14.80 from $17.70, and upgrades to Neutral from Sell, given the valuation is now more realistic after a -32% share price fall yesterday.

See also TPW downgrade.

WEB TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED ((WEB)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans and Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Web Travel posted strong growth in the top line in 1H26, although this did not translate into strong net profit growth, Morgans observes. Cash flow was better than expected, and the broker was pleased that top-line growth had actually accelerated.

FY26 guidance is a little stronger than expected, and the broker upgrades EBITDA estimates for FY26 and FY27 by 3.4%.

The outlook comments for FY27 were also considered upbeat, and the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target is raised to $5.20 from $4.88.

Web Travel delivered 1H26 results that were largely pre-announced, and Morgan Stanley considers it generally better vs modest market expectations. FY26 guidance appears “very achievable”, given the historical seasonality of higher take rates in the 2H.

The broker lowers EBITDA estimates by -3% for FY26 and lifts FY27-28 by 4% and points out a broader trend of lower take rates amongst peers has persisted. This trend is meaningfully impacting the company’s earnings power.

There is also the prospect of significant consensus earnings downside if the Australian dollar appreciates.

The risk-reward is now more balanced, and Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight. Target raised to $4.40 from $4.00. Industry View: In-Line.

Downgrade

A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/3/0

At the AGM, a2 Milk Co lifted FY26 revenue growth guidance to low double-digits from high single-digit. The company cited strong year-to-date performance in infant formula, liquid milk and nutrition sales plus NZD tailwinds.

FY26 net profit is now expected to be slightly higher than FY25. Ord Minnett notes it is unusual for a company to upgrade guidance after just one quarter, but the company clearly has had a strong start, likely driven by the English-label Genesis launch.

NZD weakness should boost earnings, the broker reckons, though hedging may mute FY26 benefits, with a potential 5% uplift to FY27 if hedges roll off. FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 1.8% and FY27 by 3.2%.

Target rises to $9.60 from $9.40. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy following over 8% price rise so far this month.

ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) Downgrade to Underweight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/4/1

Morgan Stanley downgrades Accent Group to Underweight from Overweight and cuts the target price to 95c from $1.80. This follows a downgrade to earnings forecasts on management’s new FY26 earnings (EBIT) guidance, which missed expectations.

The retailer lowered guidance to $85-$95m, which is -23% lower than the previous consensus earnings forecast at the mid-point and notably below management’s prior guidance of high-single-digit y/y earnings growth.

Trading conditions have weakened substantially with the 20-week like-for-like sales growth down to -0.4% from 0.8% in the first seven weeks and well below the consensus of 2.2% growth.

The recovery now remains uncertain, and the broker believes the risks point to further possible downside. The analyst drops their EPS forecasts by -37% for FY26 and around -28% for FY27.

UBS downgrades Accent Group to Neutral from Buy with a lower target price of $1.10 from $1.70 on the back of the group’s trading update, which was weaker than expected.

Like-for-like sales were down -0.4% for the first 20 weeks of FY26 versus 0.8% growth in the first seven weeks as trading slowed. Gross margins for weeks 1-18 of 1H26 were down -160bps versus a year earlier.

Management’s FY26 guidance pointed to a flat FY26 result and 1H/2H26 earnings (EBIT) of $55m/$60m, below consensus at $80m/$38m, respectively.

The analyst lowers their EPS estimates by -31% for FY26 and -26% for FY27, arising from lower sales revenue, fewer new stores and higher cost of doing business.

Morgans notes Accent Group FY26 update at the AGM was weak, with the company blaming tough retail conditions and heavy promotions for pressure on margins.

Group-owned sales rose 3.7% (retail like-for-like was down -0.4%), with momentum fading after early FY26 as tough retail conditions and heavy promotions hurt lifestyle footwear. Sports and wholesale, though, stayed solid with a strong 2H pipeline.

The company cut FY26 EBIT guidance sharply cut to $85-95m, down -14% to -23% y/y from prior high-single digit growth expectations. This compared with the previous consensus of $117.3m.

The broker made material downgrades to forecasts, resulting in a -27% cut to FY26 EBIT and a -24% cut to FY27.

Target trimmed to $1.10 from $1.65. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy, with the broker seeing limited near-term catalysts that would drive the stock price higher.

After a detailed review, Citi downgraded Accent Group to Neutral from Buy, noting risk from weak lifestyle sales. Limited further cost flexibility, and elevated key-person risk are expected to outweigh improving comps and stable margins.

Target trimmed to $1.08 from $1.83.

Previous commentary from the broker follows:

In an early assessment, Citi describes today’s Accent Group AGM update as sharply weaker than expected, with year-to-date like-for-like sales down -0.4% vs consensus of 2.15%. Gross margins were also -160bps lower, against expectations for a rise.

The broker notes FY26 guidance relies on a 2H26 recovery in both sales and margins, both difficult to justify.

Management cut 1H26 earnings (EBIT) guidance to $55-60m (from around an implied $80.7m), around -28% below the consensus forecast. FY26 EBIT of $85-95m was a -23% downgrade at the midpoint, observe the analysts.

While October like-for-like sales lifted to 0.4%, Citi doubts the market will place any weight on this, given the scale of the guidance downgrade.

Accent Group’s trading update at the AGM was weaker than expected, Bell Potter observes. Owned sales for the first 20 weeks of FY26 were up 3.6% vs the broker’s 5.9% estimate, and gross margin was down -160bps y/y due to soft lifestyle footwear.

Retail like-for-like (LFL) sales were down -0.4% from 0.8% in July-August, though October ticked back to a 0.4% rise. No new store target was provided, and FY26 EBIT guidance of $85-95m was -23% below consensus at the midpoint.

The broker made significant cuts to forecasts to reflect weaker LFLs, margins and guidance, and has kept medium-term forecasts conservative until a clearer recovery emerges. FY26 net profit forecast lowered by -33% and FY27 by -25%.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target cut to $1.10 from $1.80.

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 0/4/3

Beach Energy faces further Waitsia delays after new commissioning issues pushed first LNG sales out again despite Ready-For-Start-Up status, observes Citi.

While the risk of capex overruns is low, the broker’s confidence in operability has weakened, with Mitsui issuing a revised schedule incorporating extra downtime.

The analyst highlights the company’s short 2P reserve life of around seven years, implying M&A is needed within 12-24 months. It’s believed a capital management reset is required to preserve balance sheet capacity.

Citi lowers its target to $1.00 from $1.05 and downgrades to Sell from Neutral.

HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED ((HVN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/0

UBS downgrades Harvey Norman to Neutral from Buy as the PE multiple upside is reduced because of the re-rating of the stock and the comparable de-rating of peer JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)).

The consumer outlook is strong, franchisee sales are robust, and the company’s category mix is an advantage, yet there is now a fear of higher interest rates. Harvey Norman is more exposed vs any other in its coverage, the broker asserts.

The risk/reward is now more balanced than attractive as a result. Target is reduced to $7.50 from $7.75.

Harvey Norman’s trading update at the AGM showed FY26 year-to-date Australian sales are supported by replacement demand, but momentum hasn’t really accelerated since the Jul-25 update, Macquarie observes.

Internationally (NZ, Malaysia, UK) sales trends have improved sequentially, with the UK showing encouraging early traction as a longer-term growth option, the broker notes. 

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 2% and FY27 by 3% on better-than-expected sales so far, both in Australia and offshore. Target rises to $7.60 from $7.40.

After a 30% share re-rating over 12 months, a 50% share price rise, and expectations the RBA rate cut cycle is done, risk/reward looks balanced, prompting a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Morgan Stanley notes the bid by Macquarie Asset Management for Qube Holdings at $5.20/share represents a 24% premium to the volume-weighted average price since the FY25 results.

Macquarie Asset Management will have exclusive due diligence until February 1 2026. Based on recent investor consultation, Morgan Stanley remains of the view underlying volume growth in containers, automotive and energy is under-appreciated by the market.

Price target is adjusted up to $5.20, in line with the bid, from $4.50. Rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Industry View: In-line.

Ord Minnett downgrades Qube Holdings to Hold from Buy, raising the target to $5.20 from $4.52 in line with the conditional and non-binding proposal by Macquarie Asset Management to acquire the company.

Directors have confirmed they intend to unanimously recommend in favour of a scheme of arrangement should the proposal progress.

The broker notes that Macquarie Asset Management has been an active owner of global port and transport assets, and given the strategic nature of many of the Qube assets, incremental third-party interest is a possibility.

SIMS LIMITED ((SGM)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Ord Minnett notes Sims’ guidance at the AGM for a meaningful y/y 1H26 EBIT uplift, roughly matching 2H25, supported by strong volumes and firm non-ferrous prices.

The company highlighted ferrous conditions remain tough due to Chinese exports and oversupply, though electric arc furnaces (EAF) growth and tariffs are helping US scrap demand and margins.

The standout was Sims Lifecycle Services, where 1H26 EBIT is expected to exceed all of FY25 on major price rises for reusable tech components. The broker lifted the FY26 EPS forecast by 5.8% and FY27 by 0.7%.

Target rises to $14. Rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate on valuation grounds.

TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED ((TPW)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Following a further review of Temple & Webster’s trading update, Citi slashes its target to $15.38 from $34.32 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. It’s felt sustainable customer growth is now less certain, limiting confidence in the longer-term trajectory.

A summary of the broker’s initial take follows.

Citi’s first reaction to Temple & Webster’s trading update at the AGM is a slight surprise at the rate of slowing in revenue growth, given expansion and recent updates from competitors.

Year-to-date revenue growth slowed to 18% vs 1H26 consensus of 23% y/y, and implies only 14% growth over the last 14 weeks, the broker highlights.

Black Friday timing may be weighing on sales, in the broker’s view, but remains worried about marketing team departures. FY26 EBIT margin guidance stays at 3-5% (consensus 4.3%), though the broker is more cautious as comps get tougher through 1H26.

See also TPW upgrade.

TOWER LIMITED ((TWR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Macquarie suggests Tower is still delivering rare organic growth, but the late-cycle pricing backdrop and rising catastrophe/expense risk prompt a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

Levers are being pulled that are “slightly more risky” with the business guiding to a NZ$45m large event allowance and the broker suspects this will “land at NZ$55m”.

FY25 results met guidance and Tower is guiding to more than 7.5% compound growth to FY28, well ahead of forecasts. Macquarie states, “we need to see it to believe it.”

Target is raised to NZ$1.80 from NZ$1.70.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
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