Weekly Reports | Jul 20 2026
This story features ARB CORPORATION LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday July 13 to Friday July 17, 2026
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 13
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.56%; Hold 27.93%; Sell 6.51%
For the week ending Friday, July 10, 2026, FNArena recorded ten upgrades and thirteen downgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks from seven brokers monitored daily.
Citi and Macquarie downgraded Woolworths Group to sell or equivalent on valuation grounds following recent share price strength, after respective targets were raised by $2.00 to $34.00 and by $3.00 to $37.00.
Retailers, both discretionary and staples, including both supermarket heavyweights, are battling for a share of an increasingly pressured consumer wallet as explained in https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/15/supermarkets-behemoths-remain-in-focus/
The tables below reveal reductions in target prices were broadly equal with increases while reductions in earnings forecasts were slightly larger than rises.
In last week’s article, EchoIQ, which develops artificial intelligence software to help detect heart disease earlier using echocardiograms (I.e. heart ultrasounds), topped the table for increase in average earnings forecast.
This time around, in an apparent contradiction, the company appears atop the table for positive change to average target as well as the negative table for average earnings forecasts.
Morgans raised its target price to $1.85 from $1.30, driven by a forecast medium-term acceleration of revenues though the broker’s FY26 forecast suffered from dilution after management de-risked the commercial pathway via a $110m placement.
Prior to the placement, the company secured a distribution partnership with Pro Medicus, giving EchoSolv access to Pro Medicus’ US hospital customer base, offering a materially larger and higher-quality distribution channel.
Financial services company AMP and Peter Warren Automotive appear second and third for positive change to consensus targets with rises of 11% and 8%, respectively.
Ord Minnett explained management at AMP signalled first half net profit will be around 21%-29% ahead of prior market expectations, underpinned by growth of 24% in underlying net profit from its China partnerships as well as stronger investment income.
UBS notes the market has so far been reluctant to value opaque profit streams from the China partnerships, which now comprise one third of recurring group profits.
For Peter Warren Automotive, Morgans raised its target to $1.04 from 73 cents after removing the proposed Wakeling Automotive acquisition from its forecasts due to uncertainty over the timing and completion of the transaction, while also revising margin and operating cost assumptions.
Separately, the broker notes June new vehicle deliveries rose 7% year-on-year, leaving first-half 2026 volumes broadly in line with the prior corresponding period despite a softer May.
Telix Pharmaceuticals heads up the week’s ranking for positive change to average forecast earnings.
Despite a 41% year-to-date rally in its share price, Citi retained the stock as one of its preferred healthcare picks.
It’s felt there is considerable further upside as the company progresses towards a potential resubmission of its Zircaix kidney cancer imaging agent and the possible approval and launch of Pixclara for brain cancer imaging.
The broker initiated a positive 30-day catalyst watch on the stock, expecting a strong second-quarter 2026 update.
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure Fund is next with a 15% rise in average earnings forecast. Morgans raised its target to $5.47 from $5.31, reflecting forecast revisions, a valuation roll-forward and a modest reduction in the discount rate.
The company owns and operates the Dalrymple Bay Terminal, one of the world’s largest metallurgical (steelmaking) coal export terminals.
The broker believes consensus is too optimistic through FY28, while, from FY29 onwards, earnings growth is being underestimated.
Alternative asset manager Navigator Global Investments also had a good week, with consensus earnings forecast rising by around 11%.
The company, which owns stakes in private investment managers rather than directly managing money itself, delivered a stronger-than-expected June quarter, with Ord Minnett highlighting better-than-expected fund performance and net inflows across its suite of portfolios.
Macquarie highlighted Lighthouse Investment Partners generated net inflows of US$690m, while the NGI Strategic business also delivered growth.
The recently completed Stable Growth Portfolio acquisition is expected to provide an additional earnings contribution from the first quarter of FY27.
Telecommunications company Aussie Broadband appears further down the table for positive earnings forecast revisions.
While SpaceX is reshaping the long-term telecommunications landscape, analysts believe Aussie’s near-term earnings outlook and valuation remain attractive as detailed in https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/07/16/aussie-broadband-and-the-threat-from-spacex/?pass=1
On the flipside, the average target for financial technology company Iress fell by -12% last week after Outperform-rated Macquarie resumed research coverage with a $7.65 target, well below the $10.98 average target of two peers.
Earlier in the week, Morgans lowered target prices across its Technology, Media & Gaming coverage to reflect higher discount rates, resulting in a $10.35 target for Iress, down from $10.95. A Buy rating was retained.
The average target for environmental services company LGI, which captures methane from landfill sites and converts it into renewable energy and carbon credits, fell by -11%.
Management’s FY26 growth update via social media highlighted five new registered carbon sites, taking the total to 25 from 20 at the first half, alongside strong Australian Carbon Credit Unit (ACCU) creation and electricity generation in line with expectations.
Morgans felt these outcomes would more than offset the delayed commissioning of the Mugga Lane expansionary battery project.
Weaker commodity prices are expected to weigh on near-term earnings, with FY27 likely to mark a temporary step back before growth resumes.
Longer term, the broker remains positive on LGI, citing a development pipeline around four times FY25 levels and the ongoing rollout of its battery portfolio.
Appearing below EchIQ on the ranking for negative change to forecast earnings are commodity exposures Iluka Resources and 29Metals.
Average earnings for Iluka (specialising in mineral sands and rare earths) fell for no other reason than Macquarie resuming coverage after a period of research restriction.
While the Overweight-rated broker sees early signs of recovery in zircon markets, weak titanium dioxide (TiO2) feedstock markets continue to act as an earnings headwind.
Construction of the Eneabba Phase 3 (EP3) rare earths refinery remains on track for completion in the second half of 2027, requiring investors to maintain a longer-term investment horizon as the project’s value is progressively realised.
29Metals delivered weaker copper production yet stronger byproducts in the June quarter, Macquarie observed. 2026 guidance has been maintained with first half targets for copper and zinc within expected ranges.
Morgans explained copper production for the quarter was affected by lower grades and recoveries. Golden Grove’s by-product credits have helped offset near-term copper volatility with the resulting cash and liquidity seen as a “welcome buffer”.
Macquarie observed water levels are no longer a restriction for restarting production at flagship copper mine Capricorn Copper, while approval of the tailings storage facility 3 is a critical catalyst for a final decision.
Total Buy ratings remain historically elevated at 65.56%, with Sell ratings at just 6.51%, leaving 27.93% on Neutral/Hold.
Upgrade
ARB CORPORATION LIMITED ((ARB)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Morgans notes June new vehicle deliveries rose 7% year-on-year to around 131,000 units, bringing first-half 2026 volumes broadly in line with the prior corresponding period despite a softer May.
The broker highlights June deliveries for BYD surged to around 18,900 units, lifting first-half sales to 52,300, almost matching the company’s full-year 2025 total.
For ARB Corp, Morgans looks through weaker near-term new vehicle sales, arguing the company’s domestic aftermarket business has historically proved more resilient than vehicle volumes through the cycle.
While FY26 EPS forecasts are trimmed modestly, the broker upgrades its FY27-FY28 forecasts on easing Toyota supply constraints and favourable currency movements, which should support margins.
Morgans upgrades its rating to Buy from Accumulate with a target of $22.35, up from $22.04.
LIONTOWN LIMITED ((LTR)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Morgans believes the recent sell-off in lithium equities has restored valuation support, with the weakness reflecting higher near-term supply expectations rather than deteriorating demand.
The broker notes spodumene prices have retreated from almost US$3,000/t in May to around US$2,200/t. It is felt demand remains resilient.
Capital expenditure forecasts have increased across the sector as producers accelerate growth spending. Whilst this will weigh on near-term free cash flow, Morgans expects it to support higher production and lower unit costs over time.
The target for Liontown falls by -50c to $1.70 largely due to a lower assumed valuation multiple. The rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Trim.
MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MFG)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/2/1
Magellan Financial’s fourth quarter update revealed a drop in assets under management by -$1bn to $36.7bn amid -$2.5bn in net outflows. Morgans observes a soft quarter, with the outflows a step up from recent trends and well above the average of the past four quarters.
While the company has execution risk in turning around the funds management business, the broker believes the merger with Barrenjoey reinvigorates the overall outlook.
The balance sheet is strong and with the recent pull back in the share price there is now more upside to the target so the rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target is lowered to $11.26 from $11.29.
MESOBLAST LIMITED ((MSB)) Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Mesoblast delivered fourth quarter revenue of US$36m, which Bell Potter considers “outstanding”, with Ryoncil revenue of US$115m at the midpoint of guidance.
The broker points out the product was launched from a standing start in April 2025 and commercial adoption has been exceptionally strong. Forecasts for FY27 Ryoncil sales are US$275m, relative to the annualised exit rate of US$144m.
The broker believes this is achievable based on expansion of the key account manager team servicing this market, while the company has already begun to gain traction with the largest transplant centres in the US.
Target of $4.45 is retained and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy.
METCASH LIMITED ((MTS)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 1/4/0
Citi lowers FY27 earnings forecasts for most retailers ahead of the August reporting season after increasing cost of doing business (CODB) assumptions following the Fair Work Commission’s recent decision.
The broker expects most discretionary retailers to face negative operating jaws, with operating cost growth forecast to outpace sales growth in FY27.
Citi upgrades Metcash to Neutral from Sell, with the broker citing weaker share price performance and changes to consensus earnings expectations. Target rises by 20c to $3.00.
PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/5/0
Morgans believes the recent sell-off in lithium equities has restored valuation support, with the weakness reflecting higher near-term supply expectations rather than deteriorating demand.
The broker notes spodumene prices have retreated from almost US$3,000/t in May to around US$2,200/t. It is felt demand remains resilient.
Capital expenditure forecasts have increased across the sector as producers accelerate growth spending. While this will weigh on near-term free cash flow, Morgans expects it to support higher production and lower unit costs over time.
The broker upgrades Pilbara Minerals to Hold from Trim after lowering its target by -60c to $4.80 due largely to a lower assumed valuation multiple.
RURAL FUNDS GROUP ((RFF)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/0/0
UBS raises its target for Rural Funds to $2.32 from $2.10 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. The sale of cattle properties and water assets for $256m is expected to reduce gearing to within management’s target range.
The broker believes the transaction will be earnings accretive through lower debt costs and management fees whilst providing additional funding capacity for growth initiatives.
Potential upside is also seen from a higher J&F guarantee and the improved balance sheet is believed to remove a key overhang on the stock.
To explain the guarantee, Rural Funds owns a portfolio of feedlots and cattle properties that are leased to JBS Australia. Rather than owning the cattle itself, Rural Funds provides a guarantee that supports loans used to finance the purchase and feeding of cattle.
This is a summary of research by UBS on 14 July.
RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/1
June quarter production for Rio Tinto was largely in line with Ord Minnett’s expectations, supported by strong performance in the Pilbara and Oyu Tolgoi. The company has maintained 2026 guidance across its commodities.
Strong copper outcomes from Oyu Tolgoi and Escondida offset weakness at Kennecott, amid unplanned outages at the latter caused by problems with the flash furnace.
The company has indicated the Middle East war is still having a limited impact on its operations. Ord Minnett raises EPS estimates by 0.8% for 2026 and 1.2% for 2027. Target edges up to $188 from $187 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on valuation grounds.
TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED ((TCL)) Upgrade to Trim from Sell by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/4/0
Morgans upgrades Transurban Group to Trim from Sell and raises the target to $12.74 from $12.50, noting valuations in the infrastructure sector are “full”.
The upgrade largely stems from rolling forward the valuation. Adjustments to FY26-FY28 forecasts include ongoing WGTP interest capitalisation, higher costs and the timing of interest payments. The broker forecasts EBITDA growth across FY26-FY29 of 6%.
WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/1
The Middle East war and crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has de-rated LNG assets in Qatar, arguably permanently, Macquarie asserts, and this may trigger M&A in LNG, making Woodside Energy a viable target.
The broker points out energy sector consolidation continues, with speculation ExxonMobil, which missed out on the Hess Guyana oil assets, is looking at LNG acquisitions including Woodside.
International deals are making sense again apparently, as US shale consolidations are done and the opportunities maturing.
Macquarie acknowledges there would be deal hurdles, including potential reluctance from the board and the large retail shareholder base.
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral as strategic appeal should support the shares on the downside. Target rises to $32.80 from $30.00.
Downgrade
AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/2
Macquarie downgrades AGL Energy to Underperform from Neutral with a decline in the target price to $7.75 from $8.83, highlighting that power prices are at five-year lows and the future outlook as per the forward price curves is “weak”.
The domestic power market is viewed as structurally oversupplied.
Data centre demand may appear as positive but is more likely to create challenges, commentary states, whereby the higher demand is absorbed by additional renewable capacity.
The market, however, is unlikely to be so oversupplied that coal power can exit, on balance creating an oversupply problem.
The analyst downgrades EPS forecasts for AGL by -4% for FY27, -25% for FY28 and -72% for FY29. The extent of the downgrade cycle is not fully reflected in consensus expectations, the broker highlights.
AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/0
AMP has signalled first half net profit will be around 21%-29% ahead of prior market expectations, underpinned by growth of 24% in underlying net profit from its China partnerships as well as stronger investment income.
Ord Minnett upgrades 2026 estimates following the update but also envisages potential for further upgrades when the first half results are published on August 6.
Contributions from the China partnerships have grown to around 40% group net profit, with the broker observing most of the growth is attributable to the China Life partnership. This compares with just 12% for the AMP Bank division.
Ord Minnett changes its valuation methodology as a result and raises EPS estimates for 2026 by 19.1%, and by 13.5% for 2027 and 2028. Rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds following the surge in the share price. Target rises to $2.00 from $1.85.
COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED ((CPU)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/5/0
Citi upgrades its earnings forecasts across most diversified financials under coverage after stronger global equity markets and tighter credit spreads boosted mark-to-market valuations.
The broker downgrades Computershare to Neutral from Buy after a 30% share price rally, citing a more balanced risk-reward despite unchanged earnings forecasts.
Commentary notes the company remains well positioned to benefit from a recovery in corporate activity, increased debt issuance and higher US interest rates. It’s thought disruption from tokenisation will likely emerge only gradually.
The broker’s target for Computershare rises to $40.00 from $38.60.
DICKER DATA LIMITED ((DDR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/2/0
Dicker Data has re-rated significantly, UBS observes, its shares up 35% in the last six weeks.
The broker believes the elevated margin profile stemming from the memory and hardware pricing “upcycle” has been captured and “normalisation” is probably underway through the second half.
Forecasts for FY27 and FY28 are modestly upgraded to account for the slightly more attractive gross margin profile. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy on valuation grounds and the target is raised to $12.00 from $11.20.
MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED ((MAP)) Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Microba Life Sciences experienced a difficult 4Q with revenue down 2% y/y, albeit up 21% on the prior quarter with FY26 revenue falling 6% y/y, well below Bell Potter’s forecast.
The fall was attributed to the decline in legacy revenues from discontinued products, supplements and partnerships.
Positively, the analyst states, most of the wind-down is now finished. Around 20% of total revenue is expected from discontinued products in FY26.
After adjusting for a $5m placement and $1m share purchase program as well as expected additional equity capital raising (cash on hand stood at $7.9m at the end of June), the broker’s target price falls to 5c from 12c.
The stock is downgraded to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy.
NICK SCALI LIMITED ((NCK)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0
Ord Minnett lowers its target for Nick Scali by -$1.00 to $14.00 and downgrades to Lighten from Hold after materially lowering FY27-FY28 earnings forecasts.
The broker expects weaker housing turnover following recent tax changes, subdued consumer sentiment and ongoing macroeconomic challenges in the UK to weigh on furniture demand. A delay in profitability for the company’s UK operations is now anticipated.
Store expansion is also expected to disappoint, with the Australian network now forecast to remain below its long-term potential.
NEXTDC LIMITED ((NXT)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/0/0
Morgans downgrades NextDC to Accumulate from Buy with a new target price of $15.50 from $18, previously.
The analyst sees NextDC as well positioned to benefit from ongoing structural growth due to demand for data centres.
With every 50bps rate rise it removes around -13% off technology discounted cash flow valuation and 7 PER points off fair value, stated as a broad generalisation.
EPS forecasts are lowered by -3% for FY26 and -134% for FY27.
QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED ((QBE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Citi raises its earnings forecasts for QBE Insurance by 4% for FY26, 2% for FY27 and 1% for FY28 after updating investment yields, foreign exchange assumptions and mark-to-market movements.
The broker expects catastrophe claims to remain within guidance, crop insurance conditions to stay supportive and investment income to benefit from higher bond yields.
While commercial insurance pricing continues to soften, it’s thought rate adequacy remains favourable.
Citi believes QBE’s valuation re-rating may continue but downgrades to Neutral from Buy after lifting its target to $27.20 from $23.70.
RESMED INC ((RMD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Citi downgrades ResMed to Neutral from Buy and reduces its target to $34.00 from $38.50. This comes as the broker lowers its FY27 earnings forecasts to reflect a remediation program for certain Astral portable ventilators built before October 2024.
The broker estimates the issue will reduce FY27 revenue by around -US$220m and earnings (EBIT) by around -US$100m, cutting EPS growth expectations to 4% from 9%.
Citi also sees the potential return of competitor Philips to the US sleep apnoea market as a further headwind.
LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED ((TLC)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/1
Morgans lowers target prices across its Technology, Media & Gaming coverage to reflect higher discount rates.
With every 50bps rate rise it removes around -13% off technology discounted cash flow valuation and 7 PER points off fair value, stated as a broad generalisation.
Lottery Corp’s target price slips -3% to $5.80, with a downgrade in the rating to Hold from Accumulate.
EPS forecasts are tweaked lower by -3.1% for FY27 and up 1.7% for FY27.
WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED ((WOW)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/2
In the consumer sector, Sigma Healthcare remains the most preferred exposure with structural tailwinds supporting pharmacy.
Electronics, according to Macquarie’s high-frequency consumer data series, shows ongoing momentum in 2Q2026.
Grocery spend has remained “steady” albeit constrained household budgets in FY27 are expected to support trade into the home, rather than going out.
Furniture has evidenced sequential slowing growth in the June quarter and hardware remains soft. Alcohol continues to be a laggard, the broker states.
Woolworths Group remains one of the least preferred consumer stocks post its recent re-rating and is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target price is raised to $37 from $34.
Citi lowers its FY27 earnings forecasts for most retailers ahead of the August reporting season after increasing cost of doing business (CODB) assumptions following the Fair Work Commission’s recent decision.
The broker expects most discretionary retailers to face negative operating jaws, with operating cost growth forecast to outpace sales growth in FY27.
Citi downgrades Woolworths Group to Sell from Neutral, reflecting valuation after recent share price strength.
Target rises to $36 from $34.
XERO LIMITED ((XRO)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/0/0
Morgans downgrades Xero to Accumulate from Buy with a new target price of $85 from $111 due to changes in interest rate assumptions.
With every 50bps rate rise it removes around -13% off technology discounted cash flow valuation and 7 PER points off fair value, stated as a broad generalisation.
EPS forecast changes are negligible.
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Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
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