The Overnight Report: Bouncing Off Lows

This story features JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX

The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Despite an early morning sell off with the S&P500 down over -1%, buyers stepped in. The Nasdaq recovered from a -1.5% decline to finish only -0.7% weaker.

After a positive day yesterday, ASX200 futures are pointing to a positive start as the reporting season is moving into its highest gear to date for August.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight 8902.00 + 23.00 0.26%
S&P ASX 200 8918.00 + 21.80 0.25%
S&P500 6395.78 – 15.59 – 0.24%
Nasdaq Comp 21172.86 – 142.09 – 0.67%
DJIA 44938.31 + 16.04 0.04%
S&P500 VIX 15.69 + 0.12 0.77%
US 10-year yield 4.30 – 0.01 – 0.14%
USD Index 98.12 – 0.02 – 0.02%
FTSE100 9288.14 + 98.92 1.08%
DAX30 24276.97 – 146.10 – 0.60%

Good Morning,

Looking past former blue-chip darling James Hardie Industries’ ((JHX)) earnings shocker, sending shares down -27.8% and dragging along the materials sector, the ASX200 yesterday rose 22 point or 0.25% to 8.918.

Banks led the gains, even with CommBank ((CBA)) trading ex-div and CSL ((CSL)) shares falling another -2.1%, after starting the day on continued strong selling.

What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today Research extract

Markets traded with a cautious tone overnight as investors digested a hawkish-leaning but outdated set of Fed minutes and Trump attacking another (Biden appointed) Fed governor. 

US equities ended the day mixed with major indices down. The S&P500 fell -0.2% (-1.1% w/w), Nasdaq dropped -0.7% (-2.5% w/w), and the Dow was flat (+0.04% w/w). Indices recovered after a steep morning sell off with buy the dip investors moving back in.

Tech underperformed, yet again, while energy and staples outperformed. In Asia, the CSI300 rose 1.1% (+2.3% w/w), and NZX50 gained 1.1% (+2.4% w/w).

The July FOMC minutes showed most officials still prioritising inflation risks over labour market softness. Several members flagged concerns about unanchored expectations if tariffs persist.

However, the minutes predate the weak July payrolls report, which showed private sector job growth stalling outside healthcare. Markets now price a -25bp cut in September with 82% probability, vs 85% yesterday.

Bond yields were little changed. The 10y UST fell -1.7bp to 4.29%, while the 2y held steady at 3.75%. The 20y auction cleared smoothly, and technicals remain supportive of dip-buying.

President Trump called for Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s resignation over mortgage fraud allegations, adding to the political pressure on the Fed. While markets initially saw this as dovish — Cook is a known dove and a Biden appointee — the broader implication is rising tensions between the Fed and the US administration. 

Trump’s push to confirm Stephen Miran could add another vote for cuts in September and if he was to successfully remove Cook, the Fed Board could end up with 4 members out of 7 supporting his lower rates call. Speaking this morning Fed Cook said, “I have no intention of being bullied to step down”.

UK CPI rose 3.8% y/y in July, above the 3.7% consensus, with services inflation hitting 5.0%. The data reinforces concerns about inflation persistence, particularly in wages and services. Still, not withstanding this inflationary pressures, Gilts rallied, with the 10y yield down -6.8bp to 4.67%. Markets still price around -13bp of cuts by year-end, but the path is now more uncertain.

Yesterday, the RBNZ cut the OCR by -25bp to 3.0%, as expected, but the dovish tone surprised. Two members voted for a -50bp cut, and the Bank’s modelled OCR track now implies a terminal rate of 2.5%. The NZD fell -1.2% on the day and -2.6% on the week, touching its lowest since April.

ECB President Lagarde spoke late our time yesterday and noted that recent EU-US trade deals have reduced uncertainty, but sector-specific tariffs (e.g. semiconductors, pharma) remain unresolved. The ECB is expected to hold rates at 2% in September, with most officials seeing policy as appropriately neutral. Eurozone Q2 GDP surprised to the upside at up 0.1%, and inflation remains near target.

The USD had a steady night, consolidating gains from the previous day. The AUD was the other underperformer, down -0.36%, the pair traded down to an overnight low of 0.6424 mirroring the USD gains post the release of the FOMC minutes, but the decline in the USD that followed didn’t help the Aussie. The AUD now trades at 0.6435.

ANZ Bank Australian Morning Focus, Commodities extract

Crude oil prices rebounded as signs of strong demand in the US boosted sentiment. The weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration showed that crude oil stockpiles fell -6,014kbbl last week. There were also signs of robust demand in oil products, with gasoline inventories drawn down by -2,720kbbl. This was partly offset by a rise in distillate inventories of 2,343kbbl. A rise in inventories at Cushing, the WTI pricing point, also limited the gains. 

While the data was mildly bullish, it wasn’t enough to change the broader mood in the market. Bearish sentiment remains evident as traders continue to monitor negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. The US and military officials from NATO discussed security measures for Ukraine to help forge a peace agreement, according to a report from Bloomberg. 

Any peace deal is likely to lead to fewer restrictions on Russian crude oil. However, the US is still using the threat of sanctions on buyers of Russian crude to bolster peace negotiations. US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, claimed on CNBC that some of the richest families in India benefited from purchases of Russian oil, reiterating plans to boost tariffs on the South Asian nation. 

The bearish sentiment is underpinned by the surge in OPEC supply after it agreed to accelerate the unwinding of its 2.2mb/d voluntary production cuts. Our forecast market balance grows to 1.6mb/d in Q4. This should lower prices but not until the closely watched Western crude markets see inventory levels rising more than expected. 

European gas prices rose amid rising expectations of near-term tightness in the market. Traders put geopolitical issues to one side to focus on ongoing supply side issues. Upcoming field work in Norway, Europe’s top gas supplier, is raising some concerns of tightness in the market. In addition, LNG gas flows eased further this month, but remain above last year’s levels. This backdrop does not warrant the selloff that the market has endured in recent weeks, with some traders pulling back on their bearish bets.

North Asian LNG prices also pushed higher, despite rising inventories in the region. Japan stockpiles rose to 2.01mt on Sunday, up 2.6% from a week earlier to the highest level since 29 June according to data released by the trade ministry. Persistent heat in Japan could eat into the inventories as the country may need to rely on LNG to meet rising power demand.

A weaker USD helped pushed gold prices higher. Concerns of upside risks to inflation in the FOMC minutes triggered the selloff in the world’s base currency, resulting in some investors switching to the precious metal. This comes as the market awaits a key speech from Powell later this week at the Jackson Hole economic symposium.

Swap traders are still pricing in a high probability the Fed will cut borrowing costs by -25bp next month. The gains were offset by a pullback in haven buying amid easing geopolitical risks. Any sign of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine would ease demand for the haven asset. Base metals also traded higher, with the weaker USD boosting investor appetite.

The premium for US metals pushed higher amid ongoing tariff concerns. The US Department of Commerce announced that Trump’s 50% tariff on imported steel and aluminium products would be expanded to cover more than 400 additional categories. The new duties now apply to a wide range of goods, including auto parts, electric vehicle components and household items such as fridges and freezers.

Corporate news in Australia

-Canaccord Genuity is acquiring Wilsons Advisory.

-Service Stream ((SSM) is in talks to buy UGL’s $1bn transport unit.

-Hasfarm Holdings, backed by TPG Capital, is acquiring wholesale flower Lynch Group for $280m ((LGL)).

-Salter Brothers has acquired Causeway Asset Management as it expands into corporate lending.

-James Hardie Industries ((JHX)) may be forced to raise capital after it slashed profit expectations.

-Regal Partners ((RPL)) is looking to raise $94m to fund the purchase of a royalty over a NSW coal mine.

-Steven Lew’s Global Retail Brands will launch 136 outlets within the Myer Holdings ((MYR)) chain.

On the calendar today:

-NZ July Trade Bal

-XX Global PMIs

-ALPHA HPA LIMITED ((A4N)) earnings report

-AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED ((AIA)) earnings report

-AML3D LIMITED ((AL3)) earnings report

-AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) ex-div 2.00c (20%)

-BEGA CHEESE LIMITED ((BGA)) earnings report

-BRICKWORKS LIMITED ((BKW)) ex-div 48.4c (100%)

-BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) earnings report

-CODAN LIMITED ((CDA)) earnings report

-CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) earnings report

-DOWNER EDI LIMITED ((DOW)) earnings report

-EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((EGH)) earnings report

-EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED ((EXP)) earnings report

-GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) earnings report

-HELIA GROUP LIMITED ((HLI)) earnings report

-HEALIUS LIMITED ((HLS)) earnings report

-INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ((IAG)) ex-div 19.00c (40%)

-INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED ((IFL)) earnings report

-IMRICOR MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC ((IMR)) earnings report

-IPH LIMITED ((IPH)) earnings report

-JANISON EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED ((JAN)) earnings report

-JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) ex-div 100.00c (100%)

-JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) ex-div 105.00c (100%)

-KINATICO LIMITED ((KYP)) earnings report

-LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED ((LIC)) earnings report

-LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED ((LRK)) earnings report

-MA FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((MAF)) earnings report

-MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED ((MAP)) earnings report

-MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((MGH)) earnings report

-MEGAPORT LIMITED ((MP1)) earnings report

-NATIONAL STORAGE REIT ((NSR)) earnings report

-NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) earnings report

-NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NWH)) earnings report

-NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) earnings report

-OBJECTIVE CORPORATION LIMITED ((OCL)) earnings report

-PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PWH)) earnings report

-PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PWR)) earnings report

-QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) earnings report

-REDOX LIMITED ((RDX)) earnings report

-RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED ((RIC)) earnings report

-SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SHL)) earnings report

-SUPERLOOP LIMITED ((SLC)) earnings report

-WASHINGTON H. SOUL PATTINSON AND CO. LIMITED ((SOL)) ex-div 59.00c (100%)

-SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) earnings report

-UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((UNI)) earnings report

-VEEM LIMITED ((VEE)) earnings report

-WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) earnings report

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz) 3392.15 + 33.20 0.99%
Silver (oz) 37.89 + 0.56 1.50%
Copper (lb) 4.43 + 0.00 0.01%
Aluminium (lb) 1.17 + 0.01 0.69%
Nickel (lb) 6.71 – 0.05 – 0.70%
Zinc (lb) 1.27 + 0.01 0.70%
West Texas Crude 62.86 + 0.86 1.39%
Brent Crude 66.94 + 1.02 1.55%
Iron Ore (t) 101.52 – 0.05 – 0.05%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

market price bar

Index 20 Aug 2025 Week To Date Month To Date (Aug) Quarter To Date (Jul-Sep) Year To Date (2025)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) 8918.00 -0.23% 2.00% 4.40% 9.30%
BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
A2M a2 Milk Co Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
Upgrade to Hold from Sell Morgans
Upgrade to Buy from Hold Ord Minnett
ANZ ANZ Bank Downgrade to Sell from Trim Morgans
ASX ASX Upgrade to Hold from Lighten Ord Minnett
AVH Avita Medical Downgrade to Sell from Hold Bell Potter
AZJ Aurizon Holdings Downgrade to Trim from Hold Morgans
BBN Baby Bunting Downgrade to Trim from Hold Morgans
BHP BHP Group Downgrade to Neutral from Buy Citi
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Morgans
CNI Centuria Capital Upgrade to Buy from Hold Bell Potter
Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
COH Cochlear Downgrade to Trim from Hold Morgans
CQR Charter Hall Retail REIT Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Macquarie
CSL CSL Downgrade to Hold from Buy Bell Potter
Downgrade to Hold from Buy Ord Minnett
DRR Deterra Royalties Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
EVT EVT Ltd Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy Ord Minnett
GPT GPT Group Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett
GT1 Green Technology Metals Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy Bell Potter
HMC HMC Capital Upgrade to Buy from Hold Morgans
MGR Mirvac Group Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
MND Monadelphous Group Upgrade to Hold from Sell Bell Potter
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral Citi
Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate Morgans
OML oOh!media Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight Morgan Stanley
RGN Region Group Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral Macquarie
RWC Reliance Worldwide Downgrade to Hold from Buy Morgans
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate Ord Minnett

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

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CHARTS

A4N AIA AL3 AMP BGA BKW BXB CBA CDA CHC CSL DOW EGH EXP GMG HLI HLS IAG IFL IMR IPH JAN JBH JHX KYP LGL LIC LRK MAF MAP MGH MP1 MYR NSR NST NWH NWL OCL PWH PWR QUB RDX RIC RPL SHL SLC SOL SUL UNI VEE WHC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A4N - ALPHA HPA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIA - AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AL3 - AML3D LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP - AMP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BGA - BEGA CHEESE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BKW - BRICKWORKS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BXB - BRAMBLES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA - COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CDA - CODAN LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CHC - CHARTER HALL GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSL - CSL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DOW - DOWNER EDI LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EGH - EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EXP - EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMG - GOODMAN GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HLI - HELIA GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HLS - HEALIUS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IAG - INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IFL - INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IMR - IMRICOR MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IPH - IPH LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JAN - JANISON EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JBH - JB HI-FI LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JHX - JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KYP - KINATICO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LGL - LYNCH GROUP HOLDING LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LIC - LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LRK - LARK DISTILLING CO. LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MAF - MA FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MAP - MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MGH - MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MP1 - MEGAPORT LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MYR - MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NSR - NATIONAL STORAGE REIT

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NST - NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NWH - NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NWL - NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OCL - OBJECTIVE CORPORATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PWH - PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PWR - PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QUB - QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RDX - REDOX LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIC - RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RPL - REGAL PARTNERS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SHL - SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLC - SUPERLOOP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SUL - SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: UNI - UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VEE - VEEM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

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