Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 28-03-25

This story features CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CWY

The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday March 24 to Friday March 28, 2025
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 6
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.41%; Hold 31.99%; Sell 6.60%

For the week ended Friday, March 28, 2025, FNArena tracked ten upgrades and six downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Declines in average target prices outweighed increases and downward revisions to average earnings forecasts were more substantial than any upgrades, as shown in the tables below.

After entering a binding Scheme Implementation Agreement with Canadian-listed Dollarama, the Reject Shop received the largest increase in average target from brokers.

Under the scheme, all Reject Shop stock will be acquired for $6.68 per share, representing a 112% premium to the previous close, and a 117% premium to the six-month volume weighted average price.

Should the Scheme be effective, the board, which unanimously recommends the transaction to Reject Shop shareholders, intends to distribute a fully franked special dividend of 77 cents per share, to be deducted from the acquisition price.

Raphael Geminder’s Kin Group, which has a 20.8% stake in the Reject Shop, intends to vote all shares in favour of the Scheme.

Dollarama has indicated it is targeting an acceleration of the store rollout to 30 (net) new Reject Shop stores per annum, growing the Australian footprint to 700 stores from 392 by 2034.

After raising its target to align with the offer price, Ord Minnett has downgraded its rating to Hold from Buy.

Regarding earnings forecast upgrades, here Synlait Milk topped the list last week following interim results.

Earnings landed at the top end of management’s guidance range, marking a return to profitability. Still, management struck a cautious tone on the second-half outlook, suggesting the next improvement in earnings won’t match first-half levels.

During the first half, all core business units delivered margin improvement. Advanced Nutrition benefited from 28% volume growth, Ingredients was supported by stronger stream returns (i.e. processing milk into higher-value components), and Consumer saw gains through ongoing business improvement initiatives.

Bell Potter raised its earnings estimates by 3% for FY25 and 7% for FY26, though cautioned Synlait remains vulnerable to a2 Milk integrating its supply chain vertically through 2025, potentially weighing on the Advanced Nutrition segment.

Next up is gas production and exploration company Amplitude Energy with a 14% rise in its FY25 average earnings forecast.

Striking a reworked joint venture agreement for its  East Coast Supply Project provides greater development and funding certainty as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/28/upping-the-east-coast-amplitude/

On the negative side of the ledger, Coronado Global Resources and Chalice Mining fill the top two places in the tables for negative change to earnings forecast and target price.

Buy-rated Bell Potter cut its target price for Coronado to 50c from 95c after marking-to-market coal prices for the March quarter to date and lowering its June quarter forecast for hard coking coal (HCC) to US$180/t from US$190/t.

This broker also warned a sustained spot HCC price of US$170/t, or any further decline, could pose balance sheet risks for the company in the second half given Coronado’s strong reliance on cash flow generated from higher prices.

Management is chasing volume expansions at its Curragh mine in Queensland and in the US (Buchanan mine) to lower unit costs, noted the analysts.

Both Macquarie and Morgans lowered earnings forecasts for Chalice Mining prior to the pre-feasibility study (PFS) due in mid-2025 for the Gonneville platinum group elements (PGE)-nickel-copper-cobalt project in WA.

The company recently announced a significant metallurgical advancement at the project, allowing recoverability of metals through flotation and Carbon in Leach (CIL).

No longer is a hydrometallurgical process for nickel concentrate required, which is expected to reduce technical risk, process complexity, and capital operating costs.

The new processing method forced Macquarie to forecast a smaller production scenario with throughput capacity of 5mtpa versus the 15-30mtpa suggested by the initial Scoping Study.

Nine companies in the Mining sector fill a possible ten places in the earnings downgrade table below with uranium exposures Paladin Energy, Lotus Resources, and Boss Energy featuring prominently.

In case you are curious: Premier Investments is the sole non-miner in the table.

Paladin Energy resumed operations following the recent rain event at its Heinrich Langer mine in Namibia with management highlighting damage to access, haul roads, and minor civil infrastructure.

The rain delayed some mining equipment delivery and because of the impact on production, the company withdrew production guidance for FY25. 

Ord Minnett revised its forecasts to reflect a slower mining ramp-up, deferring the start of higher-grade ore extraction to the December quarter of 2025. As a result, the broker halved its FY26 earnings forecast and trimmed FY27 estimates by -6%.

Macquarie responded by upgrading Paladin to Outperform from Neutral, citing the currently discounted share price. This broker also noted the acquisition of Patterson Lake South via the Fission Energy deal has enhanced the overall quality of the company’s asset base.

For Lotus Resources, the small average earnings forecast numbers by brokers exaggerated the percentage decline last week after Ord Minnett adjusted its estimates.

Presenting at the broker’s recent Mining Conference, management at Lotus highlighted a greater commitment to the Letlhakane uranium project in Botswana than the analyst had assumed, with some of the cash flows from Kayelekera in Malawi to be reinvested in its drill-out.

At the Conference, general commentary by management at Lotus, Paladin and Boss Energy suggested the falling spot price for uranium is due to uncertainty over whether miners or utilities will pay looming tariffs. Also, utilities may be wary due to the ban and counter-ban on US fuel buying from Russia.

Ord Minnett lowered its target price for Boss Energy to $4.70 from $4.80 on higher projected costs at the Alta Mesa project in South Texas.

Following a site visit at the company’s Honeymoon operations in South Australia, analysts at Citi and Bell Potter noted the ramp-up is proceeding smoothly, with the latter expecting FY25 production guidance of 850klbs will be exceeded.

The average 2025 earnings forecasts for Woodside Energy also fell by circa -23% even though 2024 earnings of US$9.3bn and net profit of US$2.9bn were slightly ahead of Ord Minnett’s expectations. The dividend was also larger-than-expected, with an 80% dividend payout maintained.

Management reaffirmed key operational guidance for 2025, with the Louisiana LNG project sell down to -50% seen as a key de-gearing catalyst.

Certainly, the analysts at UBS believe investor focus is currently on the Louisiana sell-down, with a final investment decision anticipated by March 2025. The project is valued by the broker at US$2.77 per share.

Back on March 24, James Hardie Industries announced a takeover of US building materials company Azek for -US$8.75bn.

While new CEO Aaron Erter detailed a bold growth strategy, the market was having none of perceived high-priced acquisitions in the current macroeconomic backdrop, and the share price fell by around -20%.

Broker views varied with Morgan Stanley believing the sell-down in shares (over -30% from January) is overdone while Macquarie applied a lower valuation multiple for FY26 earnings estimates and lowered its target to $44 from $65.

Further broker views on the transaction are at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/25/james-hardie-pursues-growth-at-what-cost/

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 60.83% of the total, versus 32.22% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.95%.

Upgrade

CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CWY)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Morgans upgrades Cleanaway Waste Management to Add from Hold with a higher target price of $2.95 from $2.85.

The broker believes the Contract Resources acquisition for $377m (debt funded) is attractive, even if there is a preference for management to expand further into solid waste services.

The acquisition is expected to be EPS accretive with cost synergies, and Morgans lifts FY27 net profit after growth forecast by 4%. The deal is subject to ACCC approval targeted for late 2025.

CATALYST METALS LIMITED ((CYL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Bell Potter upgrades Catalyst Metals to Buy from Hold with a higher target price of $5.50 from $4.45, on the back of the sale of the Henty gold mine to Kaiser Reef ((KAU)) for $33m, including $15m in cash, around $14m in Kaiser shares, and $4m for environmental bonds.

Post-transaction, Catalyst will hold 19.99% of Kaiser’s ordinary shares.

The broker believes the transaction is sensible as it simplifies the business and facilitates attention on the expansion and exploration of the Plutonic Gold operation.

Bell Potter has increased its gold price forecast by 3% in FY25 and 11% in FY26, with a long-term gold price of US$3,800/oz from FY28.

DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Citi upgrades Deterra Royalties to Buy with an unchanged target price of $4.50, on the back of the stock trading at a “large discount” to the estimated net present value.

The broker has reviewed the 12-month outlook for global metals and mining. Citi envisages the most upside from 1Q 2025 levels for uranium and lithium carbonate, and the most downside for manganese and zinc prices.

Citi retains a bullish view on gold for the next three months, raising its forecast to US$3,200/oz from US$3,000/oz, and remains negative on oil for 2025, downgrading the Brent crude price forecast to US$6063/bbl.

Other price changes: copper up 4% to US$9,100/t, lithium carbonate down -8%, hard coking coal down -12% to US$184/t, thermal coal down -12% to US$105/t, and alumina down -23% to US$443/t.

FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 1/5/1

UBS believes the selloff in Fortescue shares is overdone, expecting the iron ore price will hold in the range of US$90-100/t for the next five
years, and upgrades its rating to Neutral from Sell. 

While suggesting concerns around low-grade discounts as also overdone, the broker increases its low-grade discount to -16% from -15% to acknowledge the possibility of steel curtailments. The target falls to $16.70 from $17.30.

HELIA GROUP LIMITED ((HLI)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Macquarie reckons Commbank’s ((CBA)) announcement that it has engaged with an alternative LMI provider on an exclusive basis means Helia Group has likely lost the contract.

The broker had flagged this possibility in its previous report while warning the risk was not being priced in.

The Commbank contract comprises 44% of Helia’s business and will expire by end-2025, if not renewed. The broker believes the share price is now capturing the contract loss.

Going forward, the broker expects share buyback to be completed which led to a 4% increase in the FY25 EPS forecast and a 9% rise in FY26.

Target price cut to $3.55 from $4.20. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. 

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Morgan Stanley acknowledges the premium paid by James Hardie Industries for AZEK but considers the circa -21% decline in the share price as overdone.

The broker upgrades the stock to Overweight from Equal-weight and notes EPS dilution and share price volatility in the short term.

James Hardie has agreed to acquire AZEK for US$8.75bn with a combination of cash and shares. Management is targeting synergies of US$350m, of which true cost synergies are US$125m, excluding commercial revenue synergies, the analyst explains.

Management highlighted cross-selling opportunities, including 55% of siding contractors also doing decking and around 55% of homeowners completing decking and re-siding at the same time.

Target of $55 retained. Overweight. Industry view is In-Line. The broker’s earnings forecasts are unchanged pending the finalisation of the transaction.

See also JHX downgrade.

NATIONAL STORAGE REIT ((NSR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/0/1

UBS analysts note shares in National Storage REIT have declined by some -12% over the six months past, also underperforming against other REITs, as investors concentrate on challenging operational conditions.

Lower rates are seen as the ‘fix’, but UBS also focuses on improvement coming on the back of a recovery in housing. Forecasts have been lowered below consensus and the expectation is that consensus will fall in line with the broker’s adjustments.

Having said all of the above, UBS also believes the share price already is accounting for all of that. Hence, upgrade to Buy from Neutral.

Target price loses -10c to $2.49.

PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 7/0/0

Macquarie upgrades Paladin Energy to Outperform from Neutral, with the broker highlighting the acquisition of Patterson Lake South via the Fission Energy purchase has raised the quality of the company’s assets.

The discount in the share price relative to peers comes on the back of management withdrawing guidance for FY25 due to the wet weather event in Namibia, and production from Langer Heinrich has been “disappointing” this year, the broker explains.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -USD15c for FY25, and the company is now expected to generate a loss due to lower production of 2.6mlbs versus 3.25mlbs prior to the floods, as well as higher costs. The FY26 EPS estimate is cut by -23% for lower production of 4.6mlbs against 5.05mlbs previously.

Target price is set at $8.25, down -9%.

PRO MEDICUS LIMITED ((PME)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/1

Following a deeper analysis of Pro Medicus’ $330m 10-year deal with Trinity Health, Morgans understand revenue will be lower over the first 18 months and pick up across the final 8 years.

This is due to phased implementation given the complexity of replacement in sites under existing contracts. This has resulted in near-term downgrades in the broker’s forecast and upgrades later, and hence no change in the valuation.

Target price retained at $250. Rating upgraded to Add from Hold following recent share price weakness.

RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Macquarie upgrades Ramelius Resources to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target price by 9% to $2.50 on the back of the announcement to acquire Spartan Resources ((SRR)) for around -$2.4bn in a cash and/or cash/scrip offer.

Ramelius already owns 19% of Spartan, and deal completion will allow for the development of Dalgaranga’s first ore in late 2025. Never Never and Pepper orebodies are expected to be fully ramped up in 2030.

The broker believes the acquisition is a good opportunity to boost asset quality and production growth.

Macquarie’s EPS forecasts decline over FY26FY29 by -20% to -53% on the back of higher depreciation and amortisation and an estimated 65% more shares on issue.

Downgrade

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Macquarie notes James Hardie Industries’ proposed acquisition of AZEK is at a 26% premium to AZEK’s volume-weight average price and implies a 20.8x NTM EV/EBITDA.

The broker believes AZEK is an attractive asset and will solve the weakness in the company’s trim product but the deal will dilute returns for James Hardie’s shareholders.

Target price cut to $44 from $65 on a reduced multiple of 13x FY26 estimates from 18.9x. Rating downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

See also JHX upgrade.

MEDICAL DEVELOPMENTS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED ((MVP)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/1/0

With the transfer of coverage at Bell Potter, Medical Developments International is rated Hold with a lower target price of 71c, down from $1.60.

The analyst is upbeat on the positive earnings (EBITDA) for the first time in a while, and although the turnaround has been slow, some “green shoots” are starting to appear.

Post analyst handover, Bell Potter has reduced sales forecasts by -23% and -34% for FY25 and FY26, respectively, and earnings estimates are lower by around -45% to -69% for FY26FY27.

NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Citi downgrades New Hope to Neutral from Buy with a lower target price of $4.20 from $5.30. due to lower thermal coal price forecasts and earnings downgrades for 2025/2026 of -25%/-22%, respectively.

The broker has reviewed the 12-month outlook for global metals and mining. Citi envisages the most upside from 1Q 2025 levels for uranium and lithium carbonate, and the most downside for manganese and zinc prices.

Citi retains a bullish view on gold for the next three months, raising its forecast to US$3,200/oz from US$3,000/oz, and remains negative on oil for 2025, downgrading the Brent crude price forecast to US$6063/bbl.

Other price changes: copper up 4% to US$9,100/t, lithium carbonate down -8%, hard coking coal down -12% to $184/t, thermal coal down -12% to $105/t, and alumina down -23% to US$443/t.

PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED ((PMV)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Ord Minnett notes Premier Investments’ 1H25 net profit missed expectations by -7% due to one-off costs, but retail EBIT was in line.

The Smiggle brand did well in Australia/NZ but disappointed internationally. The broker is optimistic about the future after the company said it will rebuild the management team and expand the product pipeline.

The company also indicated openness to M&A given a solid $268m cash position. Outlook for the company’s UK operations, however, remains uncertain, the broker highlights.

The broker cut the FY26 EPS estimate by -3% on higher costs and weaker sales update for 2H. Target price trimmed to $23.60 from $26.15, and rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 5/1/0

UBS lowers its target for South32 to $3.70 from $4.00 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy, suggesting the risk/reward balance is now fairly even as the company pivots from restructuring and cash returns toward organic growth.

The broker notes South32’s growth pipeline, particularly Hermosa, is long-dated and offset by depletion at Cannington.

UBS also highlights forecast cash returns over the next two years are not compelling.

REJECT SHOP LIMITED ((TRS)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/3/0

Ord Minnett notes Reject Shop will be acquired by Canada’s Dollarama for $6.68/share, which is a 112% premium to the last closing price.

The company’s board has recommended shareholders to vote in favor of the scheme of arrangement.

Target price lifted to the offer price of $6.68 from $5.00. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=205,139,181,98,239,249,167,129&h0=122,138,158,108,177,137,24,172&s0=8,31,36,43,19,28,4,34″ style=”border:1px solid #000000;”>

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