The Overnight Report: 19th Record High In 2025

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US markets edged higher overnight with the S&P500 reaching (another!) record high ahead of Nvidia's results.

The Australian market survived a higher July CPI print yesterday, and notched up gains.

ASX200 futures are pointing to a flat to slightly negative start, with a flood of companies reporting earnings today.

Good Morning,

The ASX200 rose 25pts or 0.3% despite a stronger-than -expected July CPI print yesterday.

Seven out of eleven sectors rose, led by miners. Consumer staples fell with shares in index heavyweight Woolworths Group ((WOW)) down -14.7% while tech also retreated as shares in WiseTech Global ((WTC)) declined -11.9%.

What happened overnight: NAB Markets Today Research extract

Locally yesterday, the Monthly CPI Indicator surprised sharply higher at 2.8% yoy from 1.9% and compared to 2.3% expected. The surprise was driven by the timing of electricity subsidy payments and by volatile travel components, and the monthly indicator had been understating inflation pressures over the past year.

As a result, the implications are much smaller than the face value surprise. Even so, the July outcome leaves the risk tilted to a 0.7% from the RBA’s Q3 trimmed mean pick of ~0.64%. Markets pared RBA pricing only at the margin. With -5bp priced for September and -45 by February, from -7bp and -48bp the prior day.

The S&P500 gained 0.2%, its 19th record close for the year, ahead of Nvidia reporting after the close.. Adjusted earnings per share and revenue were narrowly above estimates, but second-quarter revenue from the data-center segment was slightly below expectations. The initial reaction was disappointment, with Nvidia shares down around -3% post market.

Short-dated US treasuries continued to outperform. The 2yr yield slipped -5bp to 3.62%, their lowest since early May while the 10yr yield was -2bp lower at 4.24%. The 2y/10y curve steepened to 62bp and is not far from April peaks, while the 5y/30y spread widened further to 122bps, around where it was H2 2021. The US$70 billion 5-year bond auction tailed by close to 1bp on soft demand.

In France, equity markets stabilised with the CAC40 managing a 0.4% gain, but OAT spreads to bunds widened further, out to 82bp, from 66bp in mid-August.

An initial move higher in the US dollar faded alongside a move lower in US interest rates to leave the DXY little changed. The AUD slid down to an intraday low of 0.6463 before rebounding, tracing the broad US dollar move, and currently sits around 0.6506, 0.2% higher over the day.

The WSJ reported President Trump has told advisers he wants to move quickly to announce a nominee to replace Lisa Cook and notes former World Bank Group President David Malpass as a potential candidate. Cook is expected to file a lawsuit challenging the move to oust her.

On tariff developments, the Mexican government plans to increase tariffs on China as part of its 2026 budget proposal next month. Tariffs are expected for imports including cars, textiles and plastics. The Trump administration has urged Mexico to raise duties on Chinese imports.

The US’s 50% tariffs on India, a response India’s purchases of Russian oil took effect. The higher tariffs apply to more than 55% of goods exported to the US but do not apply to many electronics or pharmaceuticals that are the focus of sector specific tariff policies.

New York Fed President Williams has said the current level of rates is modestly restrictive and that “I definitely think that every meeting is, from my perspective, live”.

He said jobs and price risks were getting close to balance and at ‘some point’ it was appropriate to move policy down in time, but noted the still low unemployment rate.

There are -22bp priced for the September meeting and- 56bp by year-end, little changed from the prior day.

ANZ Bank Australian Morning Focus, Commodities extract

Crude oil rose after signs of stronger than expected demand. The weekly inventory report from the Energy Information Administration showed crude oil stockpiles fell by -2.4mbbl last week. This was much larger than the 1mbbl increase reported by the American Petroleum Institute’s report earlier this week. Fuel supplies also contracted, suggesting demand remains robust despite tariffs worsening the longerterm consumption expectations.

Distillate inventories fell -1,786kbbl heading into the peak demand period, where agricultural harvests and winter heating demand ramp up. Gasoline stockpiles also fell (-1,236kbbl), easing concerns of a near-term glut of oil. This was supported by fears of disruptions to Russia energy supplies.

Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s oil export pipelines appear to be reducing Moscow’s crude oil flows. Weekly shipments from its ports dropped to a four-week low of 2.72mb/d last week, according to tanker tracker data. However, expectations of further losses from a pullback in India’s purchases of Russian crude were dashed after one of its biggest refiners said it will maintain its purchases in coming weeks.

Reliance Industries said it is expected to buy 1.4–1.6mb/d for October loading. This compares with an average of 1.8mb/d in the first half of the year. US tariffs on imports of Indian goods rose to 50% on Wednesday to punish the exporter for buying Russian crude.

European natural gas prices fell for a second day on signs of improved LNG flows into the region. Imports have been increasing in parts of the European Union this week, notably in Germany and Italy, according to ship tracking data. This will help offset Norwegian flows, which are dipping due to seasonal maintenance. Wind generation is set to increase in much of the northwest Europe, easing demand for gas.

North Asian LNG followed European gas lower. Sentiment was dragged down by signs of stronger supply. Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project boosted gas output to record levels this month and keeps loading cargo that is struggling to find buyers. Five tankers, which are subject to restrictions, appear to have loaded LNG since June, with most now heading toward Asia.

Gold fell in early trading as investors weighed up the impact of a legal battle between the Trump administration and Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook. If the efforts to remove Cook are unsuccessful, it would deny him another dovish leaning official and the ability to secure a majority on the Board of Governors. But gold recovered from the losses to end the session unchanged, as a late selloff across equity markets boosted its haven appeal.

Base metals edged lower as a stronger USD weighed on investor appetite. However, the losses were contained by signs of easing strain on China’s industrial companies.

Data released yesterday showed that profits in July declined -1.5% y/y, the smallest decline since they began shrinking in May. Profits climbed much faster in the manufacturing sector, while producers of raw materials, steelmakers and oil refiners moved from negative to positive territory.

This suggests the efforts to curb overcapacity are starting to ease the strain from aggressive competition among producers. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co, one of the world’s largest steel producers, said that China’s efforts will start to show results this half.

Corporate news in Australia

-Nine Entertainment ((NEC)) is returning $780m from the Domain Holdings sale with $600m for growth ambitions with acquisitions played down by the CEO.

-Healthscope bids are due on Friday.

-Platinum Asset Management ((PTM)) will be rebranded as L1 Group if the merger is approved by shareholders in September.

-Mineral Resources’ ((MIN)) trucks crashed (again) on its haul road last Saturday.

-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV)) intends to capitalise and expand its global expansion post the collapse of rival Claire.

-Core Lithium ((CXO)) is raising $60m in new equity at $10.50, a discount of -12.5% to the last close.

On the calendar today:

-NZ Aug ANZ Business confidence

-AU 2Q PCE

-EZ July M3

-US 2Q GDP

-US Kansas Fed

-AMAERO LIMITED ((3DA)) earnings report

-AUSTRALIAN ETHICAL INVESTMENT LIMITED ((AEF)) earnings report

-AUSTRALIAN ETHICAL INVESTMENT LIMITED ((AEF)) earnings report

-AI-MEDIA TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED ((AIM)) earnings report

-ATLAS ARTERIA ((ALX)) earnings report

-EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) earnings report

-APPEN LIMITED ((APX)) earnings report

-AUB GROUP LIMITED ((AUB)) earnings report

-BAPCOR LIMITED ((BAP)) earnings report

-BETMAKERS TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED ((BET)) earnings report

-BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED ((BLX)) earnings report

-BANNERMAN ENERGY LIMITED ((BMN)) earnings report

-BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) ex-div 6.00c (100%)

-CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED ((CCX)) earnings report

-CHAMPION IRON LIMITED ((CIA)) AGM

-CROMWELL PROPERTY GROUP ((CMW)) earnings report

-CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CTD)) earnings report

-COUNT LIMITED ((CUP)) earnings report

-CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED ((CUV)) earnings report

-CLEARVIEW WEALTH LIMITED ((CVW)) earnings report

-CATALYST METALS LIMITED ((CYL)) earnings report

-DICKER DATA LIMITED ((DDR)) earnings report

-DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) ex-div 13.00c (100%)

-GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED ((GDG)) earnings report

-IDP EDUCATION LIMITED ((IEL)) earnings report

-IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) earnings report

-IMMUTEP LIMITED ((IMM)) earnings report

-IMPEDIMED LIMITED ((IPD)) earnings report

-IPH LIMITED ((IPH)) ex-div 19.50c (30%)

-LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED ((LIC)) earnings report

-LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) earnings report

-MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) earnings report

-MONEYME LIMITED ((MME)) earnings report

-MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED ((MPL)) earnings report

-NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED ((NIC)) earnings report

-NEXTED GROUP LIMITED ((NXD)) earnings report

-PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) earnings report

-PERPETUAL LIMITED ((PPT)) earnings report

-PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) earnings report

-QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) earnings report

-QORIA LIMITED ((QOR)) earnings report

-REA GROUP LIMITED ((REA)) ex-div 138.00c (100%)

-RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED ((RHC)) earnings report

-SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) earnings report

-SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) earnings report

-STAR ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED ((SGR)) earnings report

-SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED ((SIQ)) earnings report

-SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED ((SLX)) earnings report

-TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((TAH)) earnings report

-TPG TELECOM LIMITED ((TPG)) earnings report

-TITOMIC LIMITED ((TTT)) earnings report

-VENTIA SERVICES GROUP LIMITED ((VNT)) ex-div 10.70c (90%)

-WEEBIT NANO LIMITED ((WBT)) earnings report

-WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) ex-div 81.3c (100%)

-WESFARMERS LIMITED ((WES)) earnings report

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

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