Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 20, 2024

This story features LIFE360 INC, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 360

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

360   BBN   CBA   FLT   HLI   IPH   JDO   JIN   LTR   MPL (2)   NWS   ORG   ORI   PPT   PSI   PXA   QBE   REA   SGM (2)   SUL (3)   THL   WBC  

360    LIFE360 INC

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $15.47

Goldman Sachs rates ((360)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs assessed the Life360’s 1Q24 results were broadly in line with expectations, with stronger-than-anticipated subscriber net additions.

The analyst views potential upside to FY24 EBITDA guidance, with the recognition of subscription revenue from 1Q24 net adds and high-margin advertising revenue expected to commence in 2H24. Costs look to be under control and offering operating leverage also.

Life360's execution on its international growth strategy, including UK and Australian launches, are viewed positively by Goldman Sachs, , alongside its investment in Hubble Network, Inc., which offers long-term benefits. 

The analyst lifts the EBITDA forecasts by 1% for FY24 and 3% for FY25.

Target is raised to $16.05 from $14.20. The Buy rating is reiterated.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $16.05 Current Price is $15.47 Difference: $0.58
If 360 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.31, suggesting upside of 11.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 101.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 104.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of 142.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BBN    BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.48

Wilsons rates ((BBN)) as Overweight (1) –

Baby Bunting reported an -8% year-on-year decline in like-for-like (LFL) sales in 2H24, which Wilsons assesses as a sharp decline in sales during March and April (-11%) as consumers traded down. 

Gross margins fell -70 basis points due to "aggressive competition". Management downgraded net profit guidance to $2m-$4m for FY24, well below the analyst's previous estimate of $9.6m

Wilsons slashes FY24 earnings forecast by -59% and -47% for FY25, but highlights the balance sheet is in relatively good shape.

Overweight rating retained and the target lowered -25% to $1.80.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: $0.325
If BBN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.66, suggesting upside of 12.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.9, implying annual growth of -47.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.20 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.6, implying annual growth of 120.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $121.04

Goldman Sachs rates ((CBA)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs has kept a Sell rating for CommBank with a revised price target of $82.61, up from $81.98. The broker adjusted EPS estimates for FY24/25/26 by +1.6%/+0.1%/-1.0%, respectively, reflecting lower bad and doubtful debts (BDDs).

Cash profit from continuing operations in 3Q was approximately $2.4bn, down -3% from the 1H24 quarterly average, but 4% ahead of forecasts due to better-than-expected BDD charges.

The CET1 ratio stands at 11.9%, indicating a capital surplus of $7.7bn above APRA’s minimum requirement.

This report was published on May 9, 2024.

Target price is $82.61 Current Price is $121.04 Difference: minus $38.43 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $93.15, suggesting downside of -23.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 455.00 cents and EPS of 578.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 583.9, implying annual growth of -3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 458.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 455.00 cents and EPS of 551.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 574.0, implying annual growth of -1.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 464.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $20.39

Jarden rates ((FLT)) as Buy (1) –

Flight Centre Travel reconfirmed FY24 profit guidance at $300m-$400m, post a strong 3Q24 earnings report including a 60 basis point lift in the profit margin, notes Jarden.

The analyst expects a 2% profit margin is achievable by FY25 based on strong demand for leisure travel and a -13% decline in international airfares.

Total transaction value (TTV) is expected to exceed $23.7bn for FY24.

Jarden is positive on the expansion of higher-margin travel services and effective cost management, which should underpin better earnings.

Buy rating and $23.50 target unchanged.

This report was published on May 9, 2024.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $20.39 Difference: $3.11
If FLT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.51, suggesting upside of 20.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 87.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.7, implying annual growth of 313.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 91.00 cents and EPS of 138.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.4, implying annual growth of 41.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLI    HELIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.07

Goldman Sachs rates ((HLI)) as Neutral (3) –

The March quarter data from Helia Group exceeded previous forecasts due to lower incurred claims, according to Goldman Sachs.

The company expects the total incurred claims ratio to increase to approximately 30%, notes the analyst.

Management also announced a $100m top-up to its existing on-market buyback program.

The brokers adjusts earnings estimates for FY24 EPS by 19.3% and 0.6% for FY25 EPS due to lower incurred claims and higher investment income.

The price target is increased to $4.53 from $4.47.

A Neutral rating in maintained, in reference to the risk of mortgage lenders self-insuring due to continued low claims environment.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $4.53 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.46
If HLI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.56.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.40.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $6.15

Goldman Sachs rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs analysts note IPH Ltd has made a non-binding takeover offer for Quantm Intellectual Property ((QIP)) at $1.90 per share.

The offer includes 0.291 IPH shares and a $0.11 special dividend per Quantm share.

The broker believes the proposal will be largely EPS neutral for IPH in FY24, with the pro forma ND/EBITDA remaining steady at 2.1x. The deal awaits approval from the ACCC and NZCC.

In its FY24 YTD update, the broker also notes IPH reported Australian patent filings market share losses narrowing to -1.2% from -2.0% in 1H FY24, with A&NZ earnings expected to remain stable due to consistent EBITDA margins.

Buy. Target $8.70.

This report was published on May 9, 2024.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $6.15 Difference: $2.55
If IPH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.35, suggesting upside of 35.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.0, implying annual growth of 57.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.3, implying annual growth of 7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JDO    JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((JDO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs analysts have reiterated a Buy rating for Judo Capital Holdings with a revised price target of $1.72, up from $1.66.

They adjusted FY24/25/26 EPS estimates by -6.4%/-0.1%/-0.7%, mainly due to non-recurring expenses.

The bank's 3Q update shows a profit before tax of $93.1m, which is 85% of the prior FY24 forecast. Despite some non-recurring costs, underlying FY24 guidance remains unchanged.

The broker notes the CET1 ratio decreased to 15.8% from 16.2% in 1H24, with continued improvement in asset quality noted in April.

This report was published on May 9, 2024.

Target price is $1.72 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.47
If JDO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting downside of -3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 2.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JIN    JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $17.48

Jarden rates ((JIN)) as Neutral (3) –

Jumbo Interactive reconfirmed FY24 guidance post the record $200m Powerball jackpot and strong performance.

Jarden notes active customers have risen to 1.1 million, a 24% increase, supported by enhanced digital features and strategic marketing, and the $200m jackpot.

The company announced a premium price hike of 5c for its Weekday Windfall lottery, but midweek lotteries represent less than 5% of total transaction value (TTV). This is expected to benefit margins slightly.

Neutral rating and $14.70 target unchanged.

This report was published on May 9, 2024.

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $17.48 Difference: minus $2.78 (current price is over target).
If JIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting downside of -0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 65.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.8, implying annual growth of 41.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 73.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.3, implying annual growth of 9.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.50

Jarden rates ((LTR)) as Underweight (4) –

Analyts at Jarden were so impressed by a site visit, they suggested Liontown Resources has set the conditions at Kathleen Valley to become the 'poster child' of hard rock lithium processing.

First concentrates are due in "mid-2024".

The Underweight rating is maintained and the broker's target rises to $1.03 from 91c largely due to a lower assumed discount rate partly offset by higher cost (C1) forecasts.

This report was published on May 7, 2024.

Target price is $1.03 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: minus $0.465 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting downside of -10.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 65.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 373.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL    MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $3.63

Goldman Sachs rates ((MPL)) as Neutral (3) –

In the Medibank Private trading update, management flagged resilience in industry growth but competition remaining over the 2H24.

Goldman Sachs points to FY24 policyholder growth target of 1.2% to 1.5% supported by cashback offer strategies as achievable.

Softess in non-surgical and extras claims are expected to keep claims inflation in the range of 2.2% to 2.4% over the 2H24.

The health insurer will focus on improving access to affordable care and new care setting to reduce hostpital admissions,

Unchanged Neutral rating and $3.70 target price.

This report was published on May 7, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.07
If MPL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 5.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.2, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((MPL)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden assesses the 3Q24 update from Medibank Private as a solid report.

The analyst points to resident claims inflation at the lower end of guidance in the 2H24, and net margins to rise to an historic high of 9.3% due to stronger growth in the higher margin non-residents PHI business.

Management reported the continued softness in non-surgical hospital claims and subdued extras claims trends as key factors keeping claims growth moderate.

Jarden adjusts FY24 earnings by 0.7% and 0.9% in FY25.

Neutral rating maintained and the target raised to $3.85 from $3.80.

This report was published on May 7, 2024.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.22
If MPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 5.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.90 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of 8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.2, implying annual growth of 5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS    NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $40.51

Goldman Sachs rates ((NWS)) as Buy (1) –

News Corp's 3Q earnings were in line with expectations, comments Goldman Sachs, with EBITDA up 1% compared to estimates. Strength in Digital Real Estate, books, and News Media offset a softer performance from Dow Jones.

Move's revenue declines slowed, with lead volumes growing for the first time in over two years. Dow Jones saw record subscriber growth, though this impacted ARPU and led to slight revenue deceleration, the broker explains.

Book Publishing had a solid quarter and is seen as well-positioned for 4Q.FY24-26 EBITDA forecasts have been amended by -1% to -2% due to softer Dow Jones revenues and higher REA costs. The price target is slightly reduced to $44.7, with a Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on May 9, 2024.

Target price is $44.70 Current Price is $40.51 Difference: $4.19
If NWS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.73, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 107.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 127.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.8, implying annual growth of 28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $9.92

Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Overweight (2) –

Origin Energy holds a 23% interest in Octopus Energy which is the largest retail energy provider in the UK by revenue, holding a 22.0% market share in electricity and a 22.2% share in gas

Octopus Energ provided a market update, which supported a rise in Jarden's price target for Origin Energy; to $10.24 from $10.

Octopus Energy's cloud-based proprietary platform, Kraken has 54m customers and is expected to reach 100m by 2027, with a total addressable market of 1.6bn, noted management.

Jarden believes separating Kraken from Octopus Energy may result in new markets and players via acquisition and extend "Krakenise" beyond energy to telecommunications and water utilities.

The analyst finds Kraken hard to value but sees the potential growth and assesses Origin Energy will continue to support Octopus Energy in any further equity raising.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $10.24 from $10.

This report was published on May 8, 2024.

Target price is $10.24 Current Price is $9.92 Difference: $0.32
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.80, suggesting downside of -1.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 68.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.6, implying annual growth of 18.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 92.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.1, implying annual growth of 17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI    ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $18.55

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORI)) as No Rating (-1) –

Goldman Sachs analysts report Orica's 1H24 net profit of $179m was 10% above their estimate of $163m and 3% higher than consensus.

EBIT came in at $354m, beating their forecast by 14% and exceeding consensus by 7%, despite a heavy turnaround schedule.

AN volumes were -4% below both their estimate and consensus, with EMEA and the Americas underperforming, while APAC exceeded expectations.

EBIT per tonne was 19% higher than forecast and 11% above consensus, driven by greater premium product uptake and technology penetration.

Management maintained FY24 EBIT guidance, expecting it to increase, and noted the six-yearly ammonia plant turnaround was completed on time and within budget.

Goldman Sachs is under research restriction, so no rating or price target.

This report was published on May 9, 2024.

Current Price is $18.55. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $19.70, suggesting upside of 6.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 94.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.6, implying annual growth of 34.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 110.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.2, implying annual growth of 22.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT    PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $22.20

Jarden rates ((PPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Perpetual announced the sale of its Corporate Trust (CT) and Wealth Management (WM) divisions to KKR for $2.175bn.

Jarden notes the deal is expected to close by February 2025, subject to shareholder, regulatory, and court approvals.

 More details on the net proceeds and tax implications are expected at the August FY24 earnings results.

The analyst adjusts EPS forecasts by -0.6% for FY24 and -2.8% for FY25 due to the changes in asset management.

An Overweight rating retained and the target is lowered to $24.55 from $26.50.

This report was published on May 8, 2024.

Target price is $24.55 Current Price is $22.20 Difference: $2.35
If PPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.25, suggesting upside of 13.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 148.10 cents and EPS of 169.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.9, implying annual growth of 142.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 133.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 153.70 cents and EPS of 191.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.1, implying annual growth of 15.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 148.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PSI    PSC INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $6.03

Jarden rates ((PSI)) as Neutral (3) –

PSC Insurance has entered into a scheme of implementation deed to be acquired by The Ardonagh Group subject to regulatory and court approval.

Jarden notes the offer at $6.19 implies an equity value of $2.256bn and a 7.8% premium on the last close.

Management did not offer an earnings guidance update and the broker expects the shares to now trade around M&A newsflow.

No changes to earnings forecasts. A Neutral rating. Target price is raised to $6.19 from $4.80.

This report was published on May 8, 2024.

Target price is $6.19 Current Price is $6.03 Difference: $0.16
If PSI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.93, suggesting downside of -1.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.70 cents and EPS of 23.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 44.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.6, implying annual growth of 7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $14.32

Jarden rates ((PXA)) as Neutral (3) –

Pexa Group reported 3Q24 transaction volumes with Australia delivering a -0.7% decrease due to a -22% drop in refinancing activities,

Jarden adjusts the FY24 revenue outlook by -2.6% to the top end of management's guidance which results in a -6% decline in FY24 forecast EBITDA.

The analyst remains conservative on the UK and awaits better results and more earnings visibility.

EPS forecasts are downgraded to reflect the trading update.

Neutral rating unchanged and the target price lifts to $12.60 from $11.65 on a higher valuation.

This report was published on May 7, 2024.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $14.32 Difference: minus $1.72 (current price is over target).
If PXA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.24, suggesting upside of 6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 168.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 90.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 107.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $17.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs considers QBE Insurance reported an operationally strong 1Q24 earnings result.

Management reaffirmed guidance for a 93.5% combined operating ratio (COR) and mid-single-digit gross written premium (GWP) growth.

The broker highlights the strong investment result, a 4.8% running yield, and increased risk asset allocation to 15%.

CAT came in below expectations around $100m versus the $300m allowance and could provide a $50 net benefit, notes the analyst.

Minor earnings forecast adjustments are made.

The target price is raised to $20.90 from $20.58. Unchanged Buy rating.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $20.90 Current Price is $17.53 Difference: $3.37
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.72, suggesting upside of 6.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 185.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 188.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.8, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $188.59

Goldman Sachs rates ((REA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs analysts note REA Group delivered strong 3Q results with revenue and EBITDA up 3% and 5% respectively, beating their own estimates.

Despite a 3% benefit from deferral unwind in Residential revenues, the analysts expect FY24 EBITDA to be in line with prior expectations.

REA continues to outperform Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG)), the broker believes, though differing deferrals affect comparisons.

India's revenue growth accelerated to 31% in the quarter, boosting confidence in that country's outlook.

FY24-26 EBITDA forecasts have been revised by +1% to -1% due to higher Australian residential revenue, offset by increased costs. The 12-month price target remains unchanged, at $202, Buy rating retained.

This report was published on May 9, 2024.

Target price is $202.00 Current Price is $188.59 Difference: $13.41
If REA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $188.66, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 186.00 cents and EPS of 344.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 54.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 345.0, implying annual growth of 27.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 194.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 223.00 cents and EPS of 405.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 415.7, implying annual growth of 20.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 234.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $10.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Sims' 2H24 trading update revealed a significant decrease in expected EBIT, due to intense competition in North America and challenging export markets, Goldman Sachs notes.

Management commentary indicated negligible EBIT, markedly lower than previous consensus forecasts $113m and $96m.

The broker points to decreased volumes and earnings in both the A&NZ/North American markets from operational disruptions and increased competitive pressures. 

Goldman Sachs revises FY24 earnings forecasts by -$37m and FY25 earnings by -39% incorporating a more cautious outlook on near-term market conditions.

Neutral rating and the target lowered to $12.40 from $14.50.

This report was published on May 7, 2024.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $10.90 Difference: $1.5
If SGM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.70, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 28.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 72.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Sims reported a disappointing 2H24 trading update, resulting in another earnings downgrade, Jarden observes. Management guided to EBIT of $12m for the quarter, well below previous expectations.

The broker views the downgrade as a delay in the expected 2H24 recovery due to the underwhelming nature of steel markets and the problems exiting the loss-making UK assets.

Jarden points to an ongoing lack of transparency and reduces 2H24 EBIT forecast to $51m from $60. 

Neutral rating and the target lowered to $12.10 from $14.

This report was published on May 7, 2024.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.90 Difference: $1.2
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.70, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 129.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 32.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL    SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $13.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUL)) as Buy (1) –

Super Retail Group's sales update for weeks 27-43 of FY24 showed total group comparable sales down -1%, an improvement from the -3% in the first seven weeks of the half, comments Goldman Sachs.

The broker observes year-to-date group comps are flat, with total sales up 2%. The company finalised its 3-year EBA, with net wage uplift estimated at 5.75% for FY24, 3% for FY25, and 3.25% for FY26/27.

FY24-26 sales estimates were revised by circa 0.1%, with higher Auto and BCF sales offsetting lower MacPac sales, leading to group EBIT forecast changes of -0.2% to +0.9%.

Buy rating retained, with no change in the price target at $17.80.

This report was published on May 8, 2024.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $13.25 Difference: $4.55
If SUL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.65, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.0, implying annual growth of -7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.8, implying annual growth of 0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SUL)) as Neutral (3) –

Super Retail 2H24 trading update revealed improved sales over the past 10 weeks but faces softer margins and increased cost of doing business.

Jarden points to improved sales and market share gains in the Rebel and Auto segments and increased discounting and competitive pressures with a weaker consumer. 

The analyst views the inventory as clean despite these challenges and highlights employee costs are set to rise by 5.25% into FY25 due to new wage agreements, posing a -$20m headwind. 

The analyst cuts FY24 EPS forecast by -2% and FY25 EPS by -5%. Neutral rating unchanged and the target lowered to $15.10 from $15.40.

This report was published on May 9, 2024.

Target price is $15.10 Current Price is $13.25 Difference: $1.85
If SUL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.65, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 104.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.0, implying annual growth of -7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 99.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.8, implying annual growth of 0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((SUL)) as Market Weight (3) –

Super Retail Group's trading update showed group comparable sales declined -1% year-over-year for weeks 27-43. Wilsons notes the decline was an improvement from -2% for weeks 27-33, with Supercheap Auto up 1%, Rebel down -2%, BCF down -5%, and Macpac up 3%.

The company anticipates gross margin pressure, expecting a ~30bps half-on-half decline due to promotional activity. Wilsons highlights management plans to open seven more stores by the end of FY24, achieving a net increase of 23 stores for the fiscal year.

Profit forecasts for FY24 and FY25 have been amended by -1% and -4% to $233.4m and $242.5m, respectively. Market Weight rating retained with a $13.70 price target.

This report was published on May 13, 2024.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $13.25 Difference: $0.45
If SUL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.65, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 89.90 cents and EPS of 103.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.0, implying annual growth of -7.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 83.00 cents and EPS of 107.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.8, implying annual growth of 0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

THL    TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $1.71

Jarden rates ((THL)) as Buy (1) –

While management has lowered FY24 NPAT guidance to NZ$50-53m from around NZ$75m, Jarden believes the current share price materially undervalues Tourism Holdings Rentals, as it ascribes no value for Apollo or synergies.

Management noted the economic backdrop was impacting most of the company's business regions, especially highlighting a deteriorating demand outlook across A&NZ and the UK.

More positively, management provided supporting assumptions for its unchanged NZ$100m NPAT target for FY26, the broker highlights.

The target falls to NZ$4.52 from NZ$4.66 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on May 7, 2024.

Current Price is $1.71. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.47 cents and EPS of 22.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.71.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.09 cents and EPS of 27.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.15.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $26.77

Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Overweight (2) –

Westpac's 1H results were better-than-expected across most measures, according to Jarden, and a highlight was the stabilisation in core net interest margin (NIM) at 1.8%. Management expects the NIM to remain 'flattish' ahead.

There is uncertainty in the medium-term, however, engendered by the CEO succession plan and a lack of detail on costs in FY25 for the bank's technology simplification project (UNITE).

Despite these concerns, Jarden feels a turnaround is underway for Westpac. The Overweight rating is kept and the target price increases to $26.20 from $25.70.

This report was published on May 7, 2024.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $26.77 Difference: minus $0.57 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $25.23, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 180.00 cents and EPS of 189.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 189.2, implying annual growth of -7.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 150.00 cents and EPS of 189.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.0, implying annual growth of 2.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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