Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 01, 2024

This story features BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BSL

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

BSL   CMM   CRD   DTL   FFM   GOR   IEL   JHX   KAR (2)   KLS   LTR   LYC   MAH   PDN   PLS   PMV (3)   QBE   RMS   RSG   SDV   SFR (2)   SKO   STN   TPW   VAU (2)   VSL   WOW   XRO  

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $20.31

Goldman Sachs rates ((BSL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes BlueScope Steel has lowered its guidance due to lower-than-expected earnings recovery from weak East Asian and US steel markets.

Goldman Sachs highlights 1H25  EBIT guidance fell to $270-310m from $350-420m, impacted by subdued steel spreads and inflationary pressures in the US and East Asia.

Australian volumes remain stable, while a -$200m cost reduction program aims to mitigate rising costs. Goldman Sachs lowers EPS forecasts for FY25-26 by -16% and -5%, respectively.

Target price slips to $25.10 from $26.80. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $20.31 Difference: $4.79
If BSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.54, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 102.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.9, implying annual growth of -36.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 184.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.9, implying annual growth of 67.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $6.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating with an unchanged target price of $7.60, following Capricorn’s September quarter report.

Pre-reported gold production was 25.6koz and costs (AISC) rose to $1,647/oz due to higher costs at the Bibra deposit as new mining zones were opened, explain the analysts.

The broker notes a robust balance sheet with cash/bullion holdings at $145m, despite -$15.8m in capex and exploration spend during the quarter.

The Karlawinda expansion study, expected by December, aims to boost production capacity to 130-140koz per year, highlights the broker, while updated forecasts for the Mount Gibson Gold project reflect phased construction through FY25/26.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.31 Difference: $1.29
If CMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting upside of 8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of 50.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.0, implying annual growth of -4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRD    CONRAD ASIA ENERGY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CRD)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Conrad Asia Energy achieved a milestone in Q3 with the recent execution of a gas sales agreement (GSA) with Sembcorp for its Mako Gas Project in Indonesia, highlights Canaccord Genuity.

The agreement ensures a supply of up to 77m standard cubic feet per day, which helps underpin the project’s development timeline. Management is targeting final investment decision (FID) by year-end and first production by late-2026.

The Mako asset is estimated to generate net sales revenue of around US$2.3bn across its project life.

Canaccord Genuity retains a Speculative Buy rating and a price target of $2.17, anticipating steady progress as management advances procurement and financing.

The company ended Q3 with US$8.9m in cash, down from US$11.2m.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $2.17 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $1.095
If CRD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 102% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.70.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.72.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $7.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((DTL)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs observes Data#3’s AGM update highlighted a robust FY25 sales pipeline, with  10% year-on-year pre-tax profit increase expected for 1H25. The growth is underpinned  by strong public infrastructure and health verticals.

The company is also experiencing growth in recurring software and services revenue, but earnings remain second-half weighted, with potential upside if performance improves.

Goldman Sachs raises FY25-26 pre-tax profit forecasts by 4% and 3%,respectively, as Data#3 shifts towards recurring revenue streams in software and services

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price lifts 1% to $8.25.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.33 Difference: $0.92
If DTL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 21.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FFM    FIREFLY METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.27

Canaccord Genuity rates ((FFM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity retains a Speculative Buy for FireFly Metals and raises the target price to $1.95 from $1.40, driven by a 42% resource increase at the Green Bay Project.

The upgraded resource is now 59Mt at 2% copper equivalent, whiuch substantially enhancing project scale and valuation, according to the analysts.

The broker highlights strong recent drill results and upcoming milestones, including additional resource updates by 2025, as well as an anticipated maiden reserve.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.27 Difference: $0.675
If FFM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 127.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 127.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Gold Road Resources reported 3Q2024 production of 69koz, below expectations due to lower head grades, while all-in-sustaining costs remained at $2,256/oz after adjustments for a one-off contractor claim.

Goldman Sachs notes the company expects production to hit the lower end of its 290-305koz FY24 guidance, with a focus on increasing head grades in the 4Q2024.

Exploration at Gruyere continues, with an underground expansion study anticipated in 4Q, and a reserve update at Yamarna is expected in early 2025, the broker states.

Unchanged target price $2.25. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.25
If GOR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 9.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of 14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 56.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL    IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $13.93

Goldman Sachs rates ((IEL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs assesses the revised regulatory constraints impacting the international student market, notably in Canada and Australia for IDP Education.

The company’s recent entry into China’s IELTS testing market presents a growth opportunity, with breakeven expected at around 15% market share, the broker highlights.

Goldman Sachs’ FY25 earnings forecast assumes a -14% decline in student placement volumes, aligning with sector headwinds, but potential recovery is foreseen from FY26 as regulatory impacts stabilise.

EPS forecasts by the analyst fall by -1% in FY25 and -6% in FY26. Buy rating unchanged. Target price slips -4% to $19.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $13.93 Difference: $5.07
If IEL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.04, suggesting upside of 29.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of -0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $48.86

Goldman Sachs rates ((JHX)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs revises earnings forecasts for James Hardie Industries ahead of the company’s Nov results for a change in cost assumptions.

The analyst lowers FY25 net profit after tax forecast by -2%, at the bottom end of management’s guidance range.

The adjustment is not viewed as “material” so no change in Buy rating.

Target price tweaked down to $55 from $55.85. 

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $48.86 Difference: $6.14
If JHX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.98, suggesting upside of 16.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 229.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 226.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 274.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.3, implying annual growth of 20.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.39

Goldman Sachs rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

Karoon Energy announced increased resource estimates from the Who Dat East appraisal well, which added 5 mmbbls of condensate and 31 bcf of gas.

Goldman Sachs notes this update represents a 23% increase in volumes, increasing confidence in development potential.

The Who Dat South exploration also encountered hydrocarbons, supporting the company’s strategy. Goldman Sachs’ EBITDA forecasts are increased, albeit slightly.

Buy. Target price rises 6% to $2.15.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.76
If KAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 61.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.98 cents and EPS of 37.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.32 cents and EPS of 43.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of -8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

Second exploration success in the Gulf of Mexico has been confirmed by Karoon Energy, with initial data on the Who Dat South
well indicating a high liquid yield gas-condensate discovery, which may add over 10% to 2P reserves.

This well result is a clear positive for Karoon, says Jarden. In the broker’s view, the company paid more than a full price for the existing 2P reserves at Who Dat, necessitating exploration success to justify the Who Dat acquisition.

Focus turns to the higher risk/higher reward Who Dat West prospect, where Jarden expects a result in 1H25.

Target rises to $2.15 from $2.05, Buy retained.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.76
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 61.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of -8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KLS    KELSIAN GROUP LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.92

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KLS)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity retains a Buy rating for Kelsian with an unchanged target price of $6.10, following the company’s AGM where EBITDA guidance was reiterated at $283-295m.

The broker notes a review of capital management, with plans to optimise leverage, dividend payout, and capital returns.

Projects in Sydney and Colorado are progressing on budget, observes the analyst, and Kelsian’s Marine & Tourism division anticipates further growth from domestic tourism.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $2.18
If KLS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting upside of 30.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of 61.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of 12.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.82

Goldman Sachs rates ((LTR)) as Neutral (3) –

Liontown Resources’ 1Q25 production surpassed estimates at 28kt of spodumene, aided by high feed grades and recoveries.

Goldman Sachs highlights the ramp-up of the Kathleen Valley project is on track, with further performance improvements expected as production scales to 3mtpa by early 2025.

Despite perceived risks in underground mine development, cash reserves of $263m support ramp-up, with positive EBITDA anticipated by late 2025, the analyst expects.

Neutral rating with 95c target price.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.125
If LTR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.91, suggesting upside of 10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 91.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC    LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $7.60

Goldman Sachs rates ((LYC)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Goldman Sachs downgrades Lynas Rare Earths  to Neutral post the company’s 1Q25 update.

Lynas Rare Earths reported rare earth sales at 2.8kt and revenue at $121m, both slightly below expectations due to deferred NdPr sales and lower prices.

The broker observes Mt Weld expansion remains on schedule for completion in FY25, with a ramp-up at Kalgoorlie aligned with Mt Weld’s progress.

Management’s production guidance for FY25 NdPr is lowered to 6.8kt from 7.5kt. Goldman Sachs lowers EPS forecasts FY25-27 by up to -43%.

Target price declines -1% to $7.30. Neutral rated.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.60 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting downside of -10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 95.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 73.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.7, implying annual growth of 146.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.38

Petra Capital rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

At its AGM, Macmahon has reiterated its FY25 revenue guidance of $2.4-2.5bn, supported by a robust order book and pipeline of $21.4bn.

The company’s operational momentum is expected to drive higher free cash flow (FCF) and dividends, with the broker maintaining a Buy rating and a 43c target price.

Future catalysts include renewals for key contracts in the gold and coal sectors, highlights Petra Capital.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.05
If MAH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.04.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.55.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDN    PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $10.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PDN)) as Buy (1) –

Paladin’s Q1 update highlights a continued ramp-up at the Langer Heinrich uranium mine. Production missed expectations at 0.64Mlbs due to operational issues such as lower ore feed grade and water supply challenges, explains Canaccord Genuity.

The company anticipates improvements in FY25, despite ongoing ramp-up risks.

Canaccord lowers its price target to $16.30 from $16.50, maintaining a Buy rating, while noting long-term growth potential remains intact if production stabilises.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $10.20 Difference: $6.1
If PDN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.64, suggesting upside of 33.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 67.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.8, implying annual growth of 129.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.85

Goldman Sachs rates ((PLS)) as No Rating (-1) –

Pilbara Minerals has reduced production guidance for FY25 to 700-740kt, with unit cost targets of $620-$640/t due to the Ngungaju plant being placed into care and maintenance from December 2024.

Goldman Sachs highlights this strategic move is aimed at cost reduction, with anticipated cash flow improvements of $200m for FY25, aided by inventory reduction and operational efficiencies.

Despite positive quarterly production figures surpassing expectations, weaker spodumene pricing and continued cost pressures challenge margins.

The broker’s FY25/FY26 EPS forecasts have been cut by -56% and  -12%, respectively.

The stock is not rated by Goldman Sachs.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Current Price is $2.85. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 285.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.5, implying annual growth of -94.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 570.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 1360.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $33.75

Goldman Sachs rates ((PMV)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) –

Goldman Sachs believes there is greater visibility on Premier Investments’ earnings.

The analyst expects higher EBIT margins for Peter Alexander and Smiggle as well as a clearer growth path for Apparel Brands.

The analyst lifts FY25-27 EPS estimates by -1% to 10%, respectively. A more omni-channel sales model for Apparel should help a turnaround in declining market share via data and loyalty led strategies. 

The stock is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target price rises to $32.20 from $28.26.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $32.20 Current Price is $33.75 Difference: minus $1.55 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $34.88, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 162.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.9, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 135.00 cents and EPS of 175.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.0, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Neutral (3) –

The agreed sale of Premier Investments’s Apparel brands to Myer ((MYR)) proved a better outcome than expected.

It is Jarden’s view the deal provides significant scope for Premier Investments to re-rate further via higher contribution from Peter Alexander/Smiggle and a tax benefit via the fully-franked component of distribution of Myer shares.

Jarden sees scope for an implied Premier valuation in excess of $40, materially ahead of the broker’s current $29.50 valuation, which does not reflect value of franking nor longer term rollout for PA/Smiggle, which Jarden will revisit should the UK rollout be successful.

Neutral and $29.50 target retained.

This report was published on October 29, 2024.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $33.75 Difference: minus $4.25 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $34.88, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 153.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.9, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 160.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.0, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((PMV)) as Buy (1) –

Premier Investments has agreed to merge its Apparel Brands with Myer ((MYER)), valuing the brands at $773m. Myer will issue 890.5m new shares and $82m in cash to Premier in return.

Over the short to medium-term, synergies of at least $30m across sourcing, distribution, and loyalty are expected, in line with Petra Capital’s expectation.

The target rises to $33.75 from $32.00. The broker keeps a Hold rating due to both valuation and recent negative momentum for Smiggle.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $33.75 Current Price is $33.75 Difference: $0
If PMV meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.88, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 134.00 cents and EPS of 169.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.9, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 136.00 cents and EPS of 177.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.0, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 127.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $17.21

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs assesses the outlook for QBE Insurance on the back of Chubb’s Q32024 results, which indicated strong pricing in North America’s P&C market of 7.2%, with property and casualty pricing ahead of lost cost inflation.

The broker highlights QBE’s Crop insurance segment was pre-announced, showing resilience despite lower commodity prices, with guidance for 2024 remaining steady at a 95% combined ratio.

Positive read-across includes robust rate adequacy, although North American claims inflation presents a slight risk for QBE Insurance.

Buy rated with a $20 target price.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.21 Difference: $2.79
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.81, suggesting upside of 9.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 158.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 168.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 171.7, implying annual growth of 8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS    RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RMS)) as Buy (1) –

September quarter results for Ramelius Resources revealed lower-than-expected group production of 62koz, with Mt Magnet grades affecting output and costs (AISC ) of $1,965/oz missing forecasts by the broker and consensus.

Revenue reached $211m from gold sales, yielding free cash flow (FCF) of $89.6m.

Management retained FY25 guidance at 270-300koz at an AISC between $1,500 and $1,700/oz.

Canaccord Genuity increases the target price for Ramelius Resources to $3.25 from $3.20. Buy.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $0.86
If RMS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 9.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 33.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.8, implying annual growth of -1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RSG    RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.82

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RSG)) as Buy (1) –

Resolute’s September quarter production totalled 85koz at a cost (AISC) of US$1,452/oz, falling short of Canaccord’s estimate of 90koz at US$1,354/oz due to weather impacts at Mako and lower grades at Syama.

Cash holdings increased 31% quarter-on-quarter to US$188m due the earlier receipt of tranche 2 of Ravenswood sale proceeds and higher gold sales, explain the analysts.

Group guidance remains at 345-365koz, with Mako’s forecast lowered to 130koz due to ongoing challenges.

The Syama expansion, expected mid-2025, aims to increase production by over 55% to 250koz annually.

Canaccord Genuity reduces the target price to $1.75 from $1.85, maintaining a Buy rating.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.93
If RSG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.79.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.43.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDV    SCIDEV LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.59

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SDV)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reiterates a Buy rating on SciDev, lifting the target price to 74c from 68c, despite a slight revenue dip due to project timing in Q1.

Quarterly gross margins strengthened to 29% from around 26% in 4Q24, while earnings (EBITDA) increased by 29% quarter-on-quarter, indicating operational resilience.

The broker expects tailwinds from upcoming per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) contracts, with potential margin expansion from a steady project pipeline. 

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.145
If SDV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.52.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.87.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $10.37

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SFR)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Canaccord Genuity downgrades Sandfire Resources to Hold from Buy, while increasing the target price to $11.25 from $11.00.

First quarter results showed flat copper equivalent production quarter-on-quarter, with a 5% increase in copper output from Matsa offset by lower copper grades at Motheo.

Earnings (EBITDA) of US$121m missed the broker’s expectations due to lower revenues and higher costs.

Canaccord adjusts financial forecasts to reflect updated production and cost estimates, citing stable near-term growth as Sandfire focuses on consolidating recent expansions.

The broker sees limited upside in the near-term but anticipates potential future entry points if the stock pulls back.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $10.37 Difference: $0.88
If SFR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.54 cents and EPS of 58.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 15.09 cents and EPS of 96.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.7, implying annual growth of 25.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SFR)) as Overweight (2) –

The key takeaway for Jarden from the Sandfire Resources’ Sep Q disclosure was the further -US$51m reduction in net debt, which
followed the -US$85m reduction in the June Q.

Jarden forecasts free cash flow generation of US$224m in FY25 and US$366m in FY26, returning Sandfire to a net cash position in FY26.

There are no changes to FY25 guidance, and increasing consistency and growth at Motheo is set to continue. Sandfire remains a sector preference but Jarden acknowledges increasing valuation challenges.

Target rises to $9.20 from $8.80, Overweight retained.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $10.37 Difference: minus $1.17 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.78, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.02 cents and EPS of 49.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.05 cents and EPS of 68.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.7, implying annual growth of 25.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SKO    SERKO LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $3.10

Jarden rates ((SKO)) as Overweight (2) –

Serko would meaningfully expand its presence in North America with the proposed acquisition of Sabre’s GetThere booking tool and strategic partnership with the global distribution system, Jarden notes.

The proposed acquisition makes strategic sense in the broker’s view, providing an installed customer base with scale in North America, a market in which Serko has struggled to gain meaningful traction despite apparent travel management company support.

At this stage, Jarden views the proposed acquisition and partnership as valuation-neutral and will seek further information at the December 10 investor event. Target rises to NZ$4.70 from NZ$4.65, Overweight retained.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Current Price is $3.10. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1684.78.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.44.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STN    SATURN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.28

Petra Capital rates ((STN)) as Buy (1) –

Folling 1Q reporting by Saturn Metals, Petra Capital notes the Apollo Hill Gold Project in Western Australia should deliver a cost (AISC) margin of $30/t, generating an annual profit of over $300m at a 10Mtpa throughput rate.

The project’s pilot plant, set for 2H 2025, will inform feasibility studies, positioning the company for positive cash flow at spot gold prices, highlights the broker.

Petra Capital maintains a Buy rating with a target price increase to 79c from 77c due to Apollo Hill’s margin and scale potential.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.79 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.51
If STN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 182% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 40.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $11.55

Petra Capital rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

At the AGM, Temple & Webster reported moderated sales growth of 21% year-on-year with an anticipated sales target of $1bn within three- to-five years.

The company is investing in a brand campaign for the Black Friday period to capitalise on sales momentum, notes the broker. Net cash remains strong at over $100m, points out the analyst.

Management’s FY25 EBITDA margin guidance of 1-3% was reaffirmed.

The broker retains a Buy rating, lowering the price target to $13.00 from $13.10. The broker praises the company’s resilience and long-term growth strategy.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.55 Difference: $1.45
If TPW meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.52, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 186.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of 340.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 175.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 81.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of 159.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 67.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAU    VAULT MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.40

Canaccord Genuity rates ((VAU)) as Buy (1) –

Vault Minerals’ Q3 results revealed a -7% quarter-on-quarter drop in sales (in line with forecasts by Canaccord Genuity and consensus), though Deflector achieved record throughput and maintained cost (AISC) control.

With 122koz hedged through FY26 and strong cash flow, the company is well positioned, suggest the analysts.

Canaccord Genuity reiterates its Buy rating, keeping the target at 51c due to expected performance improvements.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.115
If VAU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.90.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.90.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((VAU)) as Overweight (2) –

Overall, Vault Minerals posted a solid operational Sep Q, Jarden suggests, with a focus on setting up King of the Hills for the full year and a pick-up in planned exploration and resource extension drilling. Production was -2.5% below forecast but costs were a 4% beat.

The company noted with the reserves and resources statement that it has commenced studies focused on debottlenecking design work to lift throughput sustainably to 6mtpa during FY26.

Underground resource delineation should be a short-term valuation driver, Jarden suggests. Overweight and 42c target retained.

This report was published on October 29, 2024.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.025
If VAU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.98.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.97.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VSL    VULCAN STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $7.46

Jarden rates ((VSL)) as Neutral (3) –

Post the recent Vulcan Steel first half market update, at which the company indicated that first quarter of FY25 was down -30% on the prior year in earnings terms, Jarden updates its numbers for a softer-than-expected first half, with a softer recovery now anticipated in the second half.

As Jarden broadly retains its FY27 estimates, the reduced cost of capital parameters more than offset the near-term earnings reduction and the broker increases its target price to NZ$8.05 from NZ$7.80.

Due to modest downside potential to target, Jarden retains a Neutral rating.

This report was published on October 29, 2024.

Current Price is $7.46. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.08 cents and EPS of 17.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.79.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 35.61 cents and EPS of 39.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.81.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW    WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $29.96

Goldman Sachs rates ((WOW)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs downgrades Woolworths Group forecasts due to lower margin guidance and challenges in its core Australian Food segment.

The company announced 1Q25 sales which were in line with expectations at growth of 3.8% in Australia, but EBIT guidance for 1H25 indicates erosion in margins of circa -60bps, the broker highlights.

Management plans to tighten promotional spending, reduce support costs, and enhance productivity to counteract these pressures.

Target price declines to $36.20 from $38.90 with Goldman Sachs pointing to risks around the ACCC inquiry and ongoing cost inflation, while growth in online and Retail Media may support longer-term profitability.

The broker’s earnings forecasts are cut by -8% and -5%, for FY25/FY26, respectively.

This report was published on October 30, 2024.

Target price is $36.20 Current Price is $29.96 Difference: $6.24
If WOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.12, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 128.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.0, implying annual growth of 1425.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 110.00 cents and EPS of 147.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 149.3, implying annual growth of 10.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO    XERO LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $149.50

Jarden rates ((XRO)) as Overweight (2) –

In previewing Xero’s first half results, Jarden retains Overweight due to perceived asymmetric upside. The four key areas of focus are subscriber growth, revenue, opex ratio and free cash flow.

Jarden sees asymmetric upside risk to Xero’s valuation if it can execute above forecasts, particularly in North America. The broker has an upside scenario valuation of $284, downside of $55 and  base case of $132.

Target rises to $151 from $144.

This report was published on October 29, 2024.

Target price is $151.00 Current Price is $149.50 Difference: $1.5
If XRO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $164.60, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 157.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 95.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 108.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 110.42 cents and EPS of 218.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 68.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.0, implying annual growth of 33.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 81.3.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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