Rudi's View | Sep 04 2025
In today's update:
-Another August Record: Volatility!
-Greenshoots For Resi
-A-REITs Are Winners
-Gold Bull Awakens
-No Change At Morgan Stanley
-Healthcare Needs A Cure
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor
When I fiunished writing Weekly Insights on Tuesday afternoon, it was my intention to dig deeper into individual companies and performances during the August results season, but time has not worked in my favour on Thursday.
So that idea has now shifted to the next Weekly Insights coming Monday. Meanwhile, below are some of the cherries from analysts conclusions and responses post August results.
Another August Record: Voilatility!
If your impression is that volatility for Australian equity has seldom been as high during results season as in the past month, you're most likely on the mark.
Some statistics gathered by analysts at Wilsons:
-Average post-result intraday trading range 7.7% (a record)
-Circa 50% of ASX200 constituents experienced share price moves of 5% or more
-Some 30% of on-the-day share price moves exceeded 10%
Among the heaviest hit were large caps James Hardie ((JHX)), down -25%, CSL ((CSL)), down -21%, WiseTech Global ((WTC)), down -15%, Amcor ((AMC)), down -11%, and Woolworths Group ((WOW)), down -9%.
August results triggered a number of changes for Wilsons' Focus Portfolio.
On reduced confidence, exposure to CSL has been downgraded (by half) while no confidence was left after James Hardie's newest debacle, so all shares in that company have been divested.
Winners already in the Portfolio that saw their weighting increased; Goodman Group ((GMG)), ResMed ((RMD)) and Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI)).
Post August, the Portfolio’s largest overweight positions are ANZ Bank ((ANZ)), ResMed, Pinnacle Investment Management and Goodman Group.
Other high conviction holdings currently include Stockland ((SGP)), CAR Group ((CAR)), WiseTech Global ((WTC)), Xero ((XRO)), The Lottery Corp ((TLC)), and Brambles ((BXB)).
From a sector perspective, the Focus Portfolio’s largest overweights are in Consumer Services, Technology and Real Estate.
Banks remain underweighted through no exposure to CommBank ((CBA)) or National Australia Bank ((NAB)), with the analysts referring to valuation concerns and uncompelling growth.
Greenshoots For Resi
One of the greenshoots that emerged from the August reporting season is a renewed uptrend in residential property development and the general consensus seems to be that Stockland ((SGP)) is the best option available on the ASX to seek leverage to the theme.
As mentioned above, Wilsons' Model Portfolio added the stock following the release of FY25 financials in August. Sector analysts at Morgan Stanley too have articulated their preference for Stockland over Mirvac Group ((MGR)), though both should be natural beneficiaries.
Depending on how strong exactly the sector upswing will prove to be, and further RBA rate cuts might prove influential in this regard, but Morgan Stanley suggests both companies should achieve guidance for the year ahead, with risk to the upside.
Stockland is preferred because it has a relatively higher exposure to the residential segment, construction risk is deemed lower and the shares are trading on a cheaper valuation.
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