The Overnight Report: Nvidia Saves The Day?

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This story features WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US technology stocks continued to lead US markets higher overnight. Post close Salesforce is losing its Wednesday gains in the after market but Nvidia's result proved better-than-forecast.

After a second 52-week ASX200 high on Wednesday, brushing off a higher than expected January CPI print, futures are pointing to another strong start.

Good Morning,

Nvidia’s result did not disappoint on Wall Street this morning and its shares went up in aftermarket trading.

The ASX200 reached new record highs for the second time this month yesterday despite stronger than expected inflation data.

The index climbed 106 points or 1.2% to 9,128 with eight of eleven sectors rising, led by a 5.9% bounce in technology and gains in consumer staples.

Woolworths Group ((WOW)) shares rallied almost 13%, their highest one-day move ever.

WiseTech Global’s ((WTC)) interim update resuscitated the technology trade, its shares closing up 11%.

When was the last time a strongly rallying technology stock was beaten by a supermarket operator?

The local reporting season is approaching the finish line, but plenty of reports will be released between now and late on Friday (pay attention to those after the close, always good for a giggle):

This morning, NextDC’s ((NXT)) release seems to have beaten forecasts. Long-time troubled Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) reported a first-half net profit of $160.7m, compared with a -$104.9m loss a year earlier.

Sigma Healthcare’s ((SIG)) interim profit grew by 23%. Super Retail’s ((SUL)) went backwards by -20%. There will be a lot more to digest for investors, both today and tomorrow.

FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today extract

There was little news flow over the past 24 hours to drive markets. Global equities reflect a more positive risk tone and are generally higher. 

Australia January CPI was 3.8% y/y and monthly trimmed mean was 3.4% y/y, both a tenth above consensus expectations. Electricity prices rose 18% m/m as almost all the remaining electricity subsidy impact ended, but that was offset by a -3% m/m decline in fuel prices and some base effects from a strong January rise in domestic travel a year ago dropping out. 

Feeding in the January component level detail, our Q1 trimmed mean forecast remains at 0.8% q/q, although the risk skews higher to 0.9% q/q, where the RBA’s February forecast sits. We don’t think the data will pressure the RBA’s rolling assessment much, leaving them on track for a May rate rise.

RBA Governor Bullock spoke in a ‘fireside chat’ yesterday evening. Asked about how they were seeing risks develop considering labour market data last week and inflation data earlier that day, Bullock gave nothing away, opting instead to repeat the explanation for what drove the shift from mid 2025 to the decision to hike in February. 

She did say that while “inflation is a bit elevated, I don’t think we think it is taking off again” and made the point that judgements are a little bit more difficult at the moment because “it’s not like we’ve got a situation where it’s very clear what we have to do”.

Markets currently price RBA rate hikes around 3bp for March, and a cumulative 23bp by May, up around 2bp from the prior day. There is a cumulative 39bp for tightening by the end of 2026, 4bp higher than a day prior. Bond yields got some boost on the data, 3yr yields were up around 5bp and 10yr yields around 4bp, but most of that retraced overnight.

United States Trade Representative Jameson Greer commented on the lack of follow through so far on President Trump’s comment tariffs under s.122 would be raised to 15% from the 10% rate in an official proclamation. 

Greer said a new proclamation would be coming ‘soon’ and it would raise rates to 15% ‘where appropriate’, suggesting they may be looking to vary tariff rates by country even ahead of the more permanent foundation for tariffs are constructed to replace the time-limited s.122 authority.

In FX, the AUD outperformed after the local CPI data, and was also a beneficiary of the more positive risk tone and broadly weaker USD overnight, up 0.9% over the past 24 hours and the best performing G10 currency.

The AUD is currently near its intraday highs at 0.7120, not far from its recent high of 0.7147 from 12 February. The USD is -0.2% lower on the DXY with GBP up 0.5% and EUR gaining 0.3%. The yen is the noticeable underperformer. Prime Minister Takaichi’s government yesterday nominated two new Bank of Japan policy board members who are seen as dovish on monetary policy.

In rates markets, moves were generally small. 10yr US treasuries were 2bp higher at 4.05% and benchmark European yields were generally little changed. Japan was the exception after the BoJ picks. The curve steepened as longer-end rates underperformed. 10yr yields were 5bp higher and 30-year JGB yields increased 8bp to 3.34%.

Across equities, the S&P500 is tracking for a 0.8% gain, while the Nasdaq traded 1.3% higher. Tech led gains overnight, while there was noticeable underperformance across homebuilders after downbeat outlooks from companies including Lowe’s.

A lack of housing policy updates in Trump’s State of the Union Address remarks may also have been a disappointment.

ANZ Bank, Australian Morning Focus, Commodities extract

Copper rallied, hitting a two-month high as investors were buoyed by the prospect of lower US import tariffs. Following the US Supreme Court deeming President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs under IEEPA illegal, the President’s 10% global tariff came into effect on Tuesday.

He subsequently threatened to raise the number to 15%, but no such official directive has been issued yet. This lack of clarity has caused confusion around the globe about Trump’s tariff agenda.

The average effective US tariff rate will settle around 10.2% including exemptions, down from 13.6% before the court decision, according to Bloomberg. Under a 15% global levy, that effective rate would be about 12%.

This boosted sentiment across the base metal markets, despite sectoral tariffs such as levies on imports of copper products, aluminium and steel remaining in place.

Buying in China remained slow after the Lunar New Year holiday, as prices remained near record highs. Moreover, high inventory levels could see more refined copper exports.

Last year, exports reached nearly 800kt, up 73% y/y. Shipments to the US rose to 203kt. This coincided with a widening price gap between COMEX and the LME. This price dislocation created an arbitrage window which remains open.

Gold rose as haven buying was boosted by uncertainty around US trade policy. Rising geopolitical tensions also supported buying. The Trump administration has opened a spate of national security investigations into the impact of certain imports on items such as batteries and industrial chemicals. This could enable the 150-day limit on the 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to be extended.

Meanwhile, some importers are seeking tariff refunds. The gains were muted by concerns that US interest rates may be on hold. Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting showed officials appeared wary of cutting borrowing costs.

Iron ore prices rebounded as sentiment rose on reports of new Chinese policy measures. The National Development and Reform Commission is said to be receiving fresh funding to support nationwide urban renewal projects.

Supply side issues also provided some support. Steelmakers in northern China have been instructed to cut blast furnace output by -30% during the “Two Sessions” meetings, which start next Wednesday and last for a week. This lifted steel prices, supporting higher margins for steel mills.

In addition, Shanghai announced several measures aimed at easing home purchase restrictions for non-local residents.

Crude oil prices were steady as traders await upcoming US-Iran nuclear talks. Earlier this week Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Takht-Ravanchi said the country is ready to take the necessary steps to reach a deal with the US.

However, the US continues to build the biggest military fleet in the region since the 2003 Iraq war. In his State of the Union address, Trump said Iran is working to constitute its nuclear program, adding to speculation that the US is preparing for military action.

Prices briefly dipped after the ARP reported a Hezbollah official said the group will not intervene in the event of limited strikes on Iran.

North Asian LNG prices edged higher on supply side issues. Malaysian LNG exports fell sharply over the past week.

The 30-day moving average of daily shipments fell 9% to 82.3kt on Tuesday, the lowest since October.

Canary in the Commodity Mines, Stephen Innes, SPI Asset Management extract

The first whistle of a regime change rarely comes from the ivory tower currency options desks. It comes from the ones strapped to real flow, real terms of trade, and real central banks that still flinch at inflation.

That is what the Aussie, Kiwi, and krone are doing right now. They are not just outperforming. They are front-running the next turn in the global rate narrative.

This is the market quietly admitting something it has resisted for years. The world is edging from a cuts mindset toward a hikes mindset, or at minimum toward a higher-for-longer reality where cuts are no longer the default answer to every wobble.

When the first movers start repricing the front end, FX does what FX always does. It follows the scent of changing carry, then writes a story to justify it.

Australia is the cleanest signal in the set. The RBA has already fired the starter pistol, and the data are not letting them relax. Trimmed mean inflation is ticking higher again, landing at 3.4% year on year into January versus 3.3% prior, and that is the sort of stubborn, policy relevant inflation that keeps central bankers pacing at 3:00 a.m.

Layer on the lack of a meaningful housing slowdown and the constant hum of fiscal support, and you have a central bank that cannot declare victory. Rates are now above the US for the first time since 2017, and that matters because FX is a relative game. When the differential flips, the portfolio flow map flips with it.

New Zealand is the sequel traders are already buying. The Kiwi is moving on anticipation the RBNZ is next in line to lean hawkish. This is not a mystery trade. It is the oldest trade in FX with a fresh coat of paint. Higher expected yield attracts capital, and capital is allergic to being late.

Norway is the quiet third leg, and it fits the same template. A surprise inflation bump forces the market to price even a small probability of hikes, and that is enough to move a currency when positioning is not built for it. In G10, marginal repricing beats absolute levels. You do not need a hiking cycle. You just need the market to stop assuming cuts are guaranteed.

Commodities are providing the soundtrack. Oil, copper, and the broader export complex have lifted in recent months, reinforcing the bid in the classic commodity bloc. But do not confuse the catalyst with the core. Commodity strength gets you attention. Rate repricing gets you duration-sensitive, model-driven, career risk flows.

The latter is what turns a rally into a rotation.

Now bring in the real villain and the real accelerant. The US dollar is no longer being treated as the only adult in the FX room. Investors are increasingly looking at Washington and seeing policy volatility and a debt trajectory that feels less like a glide path and more like a ski jump.

When the market starts asking where it can find institutional stability and fiscal sanity, it naturally rotates toward currencies that look boring in the best possible way. The Aussie, Kiwi, and krone are wearing that badge right now, and the tape is paying them for it.

So here is the punchline. The commodity currencies are not rallying because everyone suddenly fell in love with kangaroos, sheep, or fjords. They are rallying because FX is sniffing out a global pivot in the cost of money, while simultaneously discounting a world where the US brand carries a little more political risk premium than it used to.

But the US canary is not singing. It is starting to cough again.

And in markets, that is usually your cue to check the air before you commit to the next bullish dolllar breath.

Corporate news in Australia

-NextDC ((NXT)) has hired Barrenjoey alongside Cadence Advisory to seek out $15bn across equity and debt markets to build its data centre in western Sydney

-Five V Capital is seeking to offload smart parking business Orikan for $500m-plus

-LG Energy is seeking to exit Liontown ((LTR)) through a $419m block trade

-Terra Metals ((TM1)) is raising $50m in equity for its Dante project in WA

-Blackstone is preparing a $1bn sale of its clinical trials business Nucleus Network

-Wander seeks $13m to triple luxury off-grid pod portfolio

-Waratah Super Battery delayed until the end of 2026 after a transformer failure

-Blackbird earns huge returns from Eucalyptus $1bn sale

-AGL Energy ((AGL)) hires banks to fund its multibillion-dollar NSW renewable energy projects

-Tabcorp ((TAH)) receives approval for live betting device in NSW venues

On the calendar today:

-AU 4Q Private Capex

-US Weekly Jobless Claims

-ACUSENSUS LIMITED ((ACE)) earnings report

-AI-MEDIA TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED ((AIM)) earnings report

-AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED ((AIZ)) earnings report

-ALCIDION GROUP LIMITED ((ALC)) 1H26 earnings report

-ATLAS ARTERIA ((ALX)) FY25 Earnings

-AURELIA METALS LIMITED ((AMI)) earnings report

-AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED ((ANG)) 1H26 Earnings

-EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) earnings report

-ATTURRA LIMITED ((ATA)) earnings report

-BETMAKERS TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED ((BET)) 1H26 earnings report

-BEAMTREE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((BMT)) 1H26 Earnings

-BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) ex-div 1c (100%)

-CROMWELL PROPERTY GROUP ((CMW)) earnings report

-COG FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED ((COG)) earnings report

-CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED ((CUV)) earnings report

-CLEARVIEW WEALTH LIMITED ((CVW)) earnings report

-CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CWY)) 1H26 Earnings

-DALRYMPLE BAY INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED ((DBI)) earnings report

-DICKER DATA LIMITED ((DDR)) 1H26 earnings report

-DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED ((DUG)) 1H26 earnings report

-EXPERIENCE CO LIMITED ((EXP)) 1H26 earnings report

-FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED ((FLT)) 1H26 Earnings

-IDP EDUCATION LIMITED ((IEL)) 1H26 Earnings

-IMPEDIMED LIMITED ((IPD)) earnings report

-IPH LIMITED ((IPH)) ex-div 19.00c (20%)

-KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) FY25 Earnings

-LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) earnings report

-METAL POWDER WORKS LIMITED ((MPW)) 1H26 earnings report

-NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED ((NEU)) 1H26 earnings report

-NEXTDC LIMITED ((NXT)) 1H26 earnings report

-OBJECTIVE CORPORATION LIMITED ((OCL)) 1H26 Earnings

-PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) earnings report

-PRO MEDICUS LIMITED ((PME)) ex-div 32.00c (100%)

-PERPETUAL LIMITED ((PPT)) 1H26 Earnings

-QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) 1H26 Earnings

-READYTECH HOLDINGS LIMITED ((RDY)) 1H26 Earnings

-RAM ESSENTIAL SERVICES PROPERTY FUND ((REP)) 1H26 Earnings

-RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED ((RHC)) 1H26 Earnings

-RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED ((RIC)) 1H26 Earnings

-SCIDEV LIMITED ((SDV)) 1H26 earnings report

-SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) 1H26 Earnings

-SKY NETWORK TELEVISION LIMITED ((SKT)) 1H26 Earnings

-SPC GLOBAL HOLDINGS LIMITED ((SPG)) 1H26 earnings report

-SHAVER SHOP GROUP LIMITED ((SSG)) 1H26 Earnings

-SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) 1H26 Earnings

-TRAJAN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((TRJ)) 1H26 Earnings

-WORLEY LIMITED ((WOR)) 1H26 Earnings

-WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED ((WPR)) FY25 Earnings

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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