The Monday Report – 24 August 2026

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This story features AMPOL LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALD
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US markets rallied on Friday, led by the Nasdaq, alongside ongoing buying in gold and bitcoin.

The Australian market fell for the second consecutive week last week, but ASX200 futures are poised for a positive start ahead of the final week of the August reporting season.

Good Morning,

The Australian market slipped on Friday, down -25 points or -0.3% to 9,059.

For the second consecutive week, the ASX200 finished lower, slipping -56 points or -0.62% last week to 9,058.

At a sector level, Consumer Discretionary, down -6.02%, Financials, off -5.13%, Real Estate, down -4.50%, and IT, slipping -3.07%, were the worst-performing sectors last week.

In contrast, Healthcare rose 9.64%, Materials lifted 5.32%, Energy rose 4.10%, and Utilities gained 1.83%, outperforming the broader market.

The August reporting season has entered its final stretch. Check out the the FNArena Calendar https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Releases scheduled for today include Ampol ((ALD)), Data#3 ((DTL)), nib Holdings ((NHF)), Scentre Group ((SCGG)) and Ventia Services ((VNT)), among many more.

Barrenjoey’s early assessment of Ansell ((ANN))’s FY26 release:

“A strong result, and a robust outlook for FY27. Underlying FY26 EPS of US$1.49 (excludes tariff refunds) was at the upper end of guidance, +3% vs VA consensus.

“Final dividend of US$0.415 (+26% vs consensus). Healthcare revenue and EBIT drove the beat (+5%/+10% ahead of consensus respectively) while Industrial performance was in line.

“Operating cash flow US$389m was significantly ahead of the pcp (US$233m) on efficient working capital management. FY27 EPS guidance US1.58-1.70 is ~7% ahead of consensus at the mid-point, noting it includes a US$9m FX benefit vs FY26 but no further accretion from the share buyback (or tariff refunds).”

Don’t forget the FNArena corporate results monitor to track the earnings reports.

https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

Today’s Big Picture, J.L. Bernstein extract

Treasury’s Bond Fix Lasted One Day

The Treasury said Wednesday it will at least double the amount of long-term bonds it buys back, starting September 9 and running through November 4.

Adding a buyer that size was supposed to bring yields down.

Yields fell for about a day, then climbed back to their highest levels in more than a decade, and that is what pressured stocks all week.

Lawrence Gillum at LPL Financial called the plan a Band-Aid that does not fix the problem.

Bitcoin Is Back Above US$77,000

Bitcoin is heading for its best week in almost three years and got close to US$80,000.

The move came from two places. Trump asked Congress this week to pass crypto legislation, and the Treasury’s bond announcement knocked the dollar to its weakest level since May.

Funds that hold bitcoin directly pulled in US$1.6 billion Monday through Thursday, their best stretch this year.

Oil Climbs Again On Iran

Brent crude closed higher for a fifth day in a row and sits near US$94.

The Strait of Hormuz, the channel that carries a large share of the world’s oil, is still closed, with 10 to 20 ships a day getting through against roughly 130 before the war.

Scott Bessent lays out Monday exactly how Washington plans to cut Iran off from the global economy.

Sanctions do not reopen the strait, so oil stays up here until the shipping does.

ANZ Bank, Australian Morning Focus

Equity markets closed the week on a firmer footing. The S&P500 closed up 0.4%, while the Dow was up 1.0%. The EuroStoxx50 and the FTSE100 both rose 0.6%.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose 3bp to 4.73%.

Oil prices were little changed. WTI was up 0.3% to US$87.1/bbl. Gold rose 2.5% to US$4,603.1/oz.

US: August’s preliminary composite PMI rose 1.5pts to 56.0. The services PMI rose more than expected to 56.8, while the manufacturing PMI also showed activity expanded, albeit at a slightly slower pace, at 53.2.

The composite figure is at its highest level in four years, and the services subindex is at its highest level since December 2024. Input price pressures are at their lowest since the start of the year, while output price pressures are at levels last seen around October 2025. Price pressures, while elevated, may be easing.

US/Canada: After a breakdown in trade talks over the weekend, the US imposed tariffs on US$20bn of Canadian goods. Canada’s Prime Minister Carney is now placing tariffs of roughly equivalent value on US steel, dairy, appliances, electronics, pulp and paper, and more.

Europe: Euro area negotiated wage settlements fell to 2.44% in Q2 from 2.56% in Q1. Euro area July one-year and three-year inflation expectations fell 0.1% to 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively.

US fiscal position in sharp focus: The fiscal update and Jackson Hole symposium provide two major policy updates this week, with important implications for financial markets. Bond yields have been under upward pressure, exacerbated by the US’s deteriorating fiscal position.

The Supreme Court’s decision to end earlier tariffs is estimated to cost the US Treasury -US$160bn, and the CBO now projects the deficit will be US$200bn higher than previously estimated for FY2026, at US$2.1trn. Debt is now in excess of US$40trn, with an average estimated coupon of 3.45%.

Debt interest payments account for 15% of public expenditure and just over 50% of the US budget deficit. Curbing the growth in debt is a necessity, and it will be interesting to hear what the US Treasury plans in this regard.

At Jackson Hole, we expect Fed Chair Warsh will reaffirm the Fed’s commitment to 2.0% inflation and outline his strategic vision for the Fed’s monetary policy-setting framework going forward.

If both the fiscal and monetary updates fail to reassure markets, a period of financial market volatility could lie ahead.

US Sectors Call: Health Care, Semiconductors, Consumer Staples & Materials, Ed Yardeni & Toby Hearst, Yardeni Research extract

Health Care (OW) led the S&P500 sectors this week, rising 4.3%. Energy (OW) was next at 2.5% and is up 41.2% ytd, the best of the 11 sectors. Materials (OW) also finished higher, up 2.3%.

The other eight sectors fell. Utilities (OW) was the weakest at -3.6%, followed by Industrials (OW) at -3.4% and Information Technology (MW) at -3.2%.

Here’s more on Health Care, Information Technology, Consumer Staples (UW), and Materials:

(1) Health Care: Biotech leads the way. The biotech rally has been running on M&A, hope, and hype. Last week, the sector delivered great news. Moderna and Merck announced on Wednesday that their personalised cancer vaccine met its primary endpoints in a Phase 3 trial, the first individualised mRNA therapy ever to do so. Moderna rose 177%, the largest one-day gain by any S&P500 stock this century, then gave back 22% on Thursday. Biotechnology gained 8.5% for the week.

Analysts have been marking up the sector. Two weeks ago, they expected earnings to grow 0.1% in 2026. They now expect 2.0% growth this year, with 22.2% pencilled in for 2027. Biotechnology is the leading swing factor, forecast to shrink 6.4% this year and grow 47.1% next year.

The sector’s forward earnings are up 6.6% ytd, and the forward P/E is up 6.3% ytd, pushing the price index up 12.6%. At 19.1 times forward earnings, the sector trades slightly below the S&P500’s 19.8.

We are watching the sector’s forward profit margin. It slid from 11.5% in early 2022 to just under 8.0% at the start of this year, then picked up to 8.5%. That is a small move off a low base, but it arrives alongside the earliest commercial evidence that AI-designed therapeutics work. We are overweight Health Care because we think the drug-development cycle is turning.

(2) Information Technology: Semis getting cheaper. Information Technology fell -3.2% this week. Long-term Treasury yields did the damage. The 30-year hit 5.31% on Monday, its highest since 2007, and closed Friday at 5.28%.

The selloff has barely dented the year for Semiconductors. SanDisk is up 572.4% ytd, Micron 238.7%, and Marvell 178.9%, against 2.0% for the Mag-7. All three are also leading on a mtd basis.

Semiconductors now account for 51.9% of the sector’s forward earnings, up from 46.8% in mid-May, while the industry’s share of its market cap has fallen from 45.1% to 42.6% over the same stretch. Semis’ earnings are piling up so fast that investors are getting nervous about paying up for them.

That’s because price increases are driving up earnings rather than unit sales, which are constrained by capacity. Semis trade at 16.9 times forward earnings against the S&P500’s 19.8.

Tech as a whole trades at 21.0 times forward earnings, down from 26.5 at the end of 2025, while consensus long-term earnings growth is at 41.2% against 25.0% for the S&P500. Analysts keep raising the growth rate. Investors keep lowering the multiple.

We remain at a market weight rating and continue to view the AI selloff as an opportunity.

(3) Staples: Retailers are a drag. The two biggest US retailers, Walmart and Target, reported July-quarter earnings last week. Target beat the consensus estimate for comparable-store sales growth, and its stock rose 4.25% on Wednesday.

Walmart beat the consensus on the earnings headline but missed on comparable sales, and its shares fell -9.2% on Thursday. The Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail industry index fell 4.9% for the week, the worst industry performance in the Consumer Staples sector. That cut the industry’s ytd gain to 3.5%; it was around 10% for most of the year.

Since the start of last year, Walmart stock is up 15% and Target is up 22%, with Target having caught up with and overtaken Walmart after naming Michael Fiddelke chief executive on August 20, 2025. Target is up 65% ytd.

We retain our underweight rating on the sector, which trades at 22.1 times forward earnings against the S&P500’s 19.8 and carries the lowest consensus long-term growth of the 11 sectors at 8.8%.

(4) Materials: More than gold. The Materials sector rose 2.3% last week and is up 17.0% ytd. Among its component industries, the Gold share price index was a standout performer last week, up 11.7%, as the price of gold rebounded above its 200-day moving average. The same fiscal concerns pushing long-term Treasury yields to 19-year highs have supported the gold price.

Even so, the Gold industry index was not the sector’s best performer among its component industries last week. Copper rose 15.3%, ahead of Gold’s 11.7%, and is up 50.9% ytd against Gold’s 31.8%.

The Materials sector’s strength spans the metals complex rather than resting on one commodity, and we retain our overweight rating.

Corporate news in Australia:

• BGH Capital has proposed acquiring EQT Holdings ((EQT)) for $24.75 per share in cash
• Perenti ((PRN)) has agreed to sell its BTP equipment rental and parts business to Beetle Industries for $100m, with completion expected by October
• Amwins, Dragoneer and KKR have made their $7.7bn takeover proposal for Steadfast Group ((SDF)) binding
• Ingenia Communities ((INA)) is expected to announce a $900m-plus cash-and-scrip takeover of Peet ((PPC)) 
• Potentia Capital is in dispute with Soprano Design founder Richard Favero over a blocked trade sale and Potentia’s investment in the messaging software group
• Foresight Group has hired PwC to seek buyers for South Australia’s 162MW Wattle Point and Hallett Hill wind farms, with the portfolio reportedly carrying a price tag of around $400m
• SkyCity Entertainment ((SKC)) has appointed UBS to review strategic options for its Adelaide casino, including a potential sale
• Thoma Bravo is leading the race to acquire a stake in Australian HR software company Tanda at an $800m valuation
• US-based Hometown has renewed its pursuit of Lifestyle Communities ((LIC)), with a potential transaction reportedly valuing the company at around $650m
• KKR is reportedly reviving efforts to take Pepper Money ((PPM)) private, with extensive due diligence underway
• Tabcorp ((TAH)) CEO Gillon McLachlan has sold his stake in wagering platform Dabble to his brother Hamish to address potential conflict concerns
• James Hardie Industries ((JHX)) has agreed to sell its European Fermacell walling and flooring business to Holcim for EUR840m in cash and separately plans to close its European fibre cement operations
• FireFly Metals ((FFM)) is preparing to raise around $180m and has hired Canaccord Genuity to launch the equity raising
• Alliance Aviation Services ((AQZ)) is preparing an equity raising aimed at strengthening its highly leveraged balance sheet
• Former Regal Funds Management stockpicker James Sioud has launched new investment firm Artefact Capital
• Rampart Capital, backed by founders of Zip ((ZIP)) and Stake, has deployed more than $20m in loans secured against shares in private companies

On the calendar today:

-NZ 2Q Retail sales

-AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED ((ABB)) FY26 earnings report

-ADAIRS LIMITED ((ADH)) FY26 earnings report

-AMPOL LIMITED ((ALD)) FY26 earnings report

-ANSELL LIMITED ((ANN)) FY26 earnings report

-BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED ((BVS)) ex-div 6.69c

-BRAVURA SOLUTIONS LIMITED ((BVS)) ex-div 8.31c

-CHORUS LIMITED ((CNU)) FY26 earnings report

-DATA#3 LIMITED. ((DTL)) FY26 earnings report

-ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) Fy26 earnings report

-GEMLIFE COMMUNITIES GROUP ((GLF)) FY26 earnings report

-HIPAGES GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((HPG)) FY26 earnings report

-HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED ((HSN)) ex-div 5c (80%)

-INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ((IAG)) ex-div 20.00c (80%)

-MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED ((MVF)) FY26 earnings report

-NAVIGATOR GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LIMITED ((NGI)) FY26 earnings report

-NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) FY26 earnings report

-NUIX LIMITED ((NXL)) FY26 earnings report

-PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) FY26 earnings report

-PEOPLEIN LIMITED ((PPE)) FY26 earnings report

-PRAEMIUM LIMITED ((PPS)) FY26 earnings report

-QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED ((QBE)) ex-div 33.00c (30%)

-REGIS HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((REG)) FY26 earnings report

-REECE LIMITED ((REH)) FY26 earnings report

-REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) FY26 earnings report

-RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED ((RSG)) FY26 earnings report

-SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) FY26 earnings report

-STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SMR)) FY26 earnings report

-SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED ((SNL)) FY26 earnings report

-SHAVER SHOP GROUP LIMITED ((SSG)) FY26 earnings report

-SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) ex-div 16.34c

-SYMAL GROUP LIMITED ((SYL)) FY26 earnings report

-VENTIA SERVICES GROUP LIMITED ((VNT)) FY26 earnings report

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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