Daily Market Reports | Feb 17 2025
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
AGL ALL AMP AOV AQZ ARF ASK (2) ASX AVH AZY BOL BXB CBA COH (2) CPU CQR (2) DHG (2) DXI EVN (2) FFM FPH GNC GNE GQG (2) HDN (2) HLI IAG (2) IMD IPX JHX JIN MGR MIN NST (2) ORA ORG (2) PME (2) RWC S32 SGH SPZ SUN TPW TWE (2) WEB WGX WTC
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities - Overnight Price: $10.71
Goldman Sachs rates ((AGL)) as Neutral (3) -
AGL Energy reported a stronger-than-expected 1H25 result with $1.07bn EBITDA 13% above Goldman Sachs' forecast and 8% above consensus, supported by stronger electricity trading and origination earnings.
The 'beat' was achieved despite prolonged coal plant downtime, the broker notes.
The broker observes even after a strong 1H25, the company only slightly narrowed EBITDA guidance toward the top end to $1.935-2.135bn from $1.87-2.17bn.
Goldman continues to estimate earnings towards the top end at $2.09bn (previously $2.06bn). Target price rises to $11.90 from $11.50. Neutral rating maintained.
This report was published on February 13, 2025.
Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $10.71 Difference: $1.19
If AGL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.92, suggesting upside of 12.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.7, implying annual growth of -5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.73.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.2, implying annual growth of -0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED
Gaming - Overnight Price: $77.00
Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Neutral (3) -
Jarden notes Aristocrat's Plarium sale completion arrived earlier than expected, enhancing final sales proceeds.
The company will deploy sales proceeds for its growth strategy, and capital management initiatives, and the broker anticipates a new on-market buyback announcement at the Feb 21 AGM.
The broker notes the company could not realise an acceptable, clean exit price for its residual Big Fish assets, which would now essentially move into run-off, cash optimisation mode.
Jarden remains constructive on Aristocrats growth business model and maintains its Neutral rating. Target price rises to $67 from $61 on roll forward of valuation, currency mark to market and earnings revisions.
This report was published on February 13, 2025.
Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $77.00 Difference: minus $10 (current price is over target).
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $74.39, suggesting downside of -4.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 94.00 cents and EPS of 280.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.46.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.9, implying annual growth of 31.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 301.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.56.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 293.2, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AMP AMP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments - Overnight Price: $1.49
Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) -
Jarden notes AMP's 2024 result was ahead of estimates yet concerns surrounding capital management remain uppermost for investors. Should the portfolio mix continue to trend towards managed accounts this could put further downward pressure on margins as well.
There were some key positives, with Jarden pointing out the business is delivering on cost cutting initiatives while flow momentum may be able to stem market share losses. Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.40 from $1.45.
This report was published on February 14, 2025.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 11.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of 52.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.52.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.4, implying annual growth of 5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AOV AMOTIV LIMITED
Automobiles & Components - Overnight Price: $10.00
Goldman Sachs rates ((AOV)) as Buy (1) -
Amotivs 1H25 net profit landed -3% below consensus expectations as revenue growth slowed in a tough automotive environment, Goldman Sachs notes.
Despite the challenging near-term top-line outlook, the broker remains optimistic on cost restructuring and business investment outcomes into 2H25 and FY26.
Goldman Sachs notes the company retained guidance for a slightly stronger EBITDA in the 2H vs 1H, driven by price increases in 3Q, new program launches, vehicle mix improvement and cost optimisation.
Target price cut to $12.20 from $13.00. Buy rating maintained.
This report was published on February 13, 2025.
Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $10.00 Difference: $2.2
If AOV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.16, suggesting upside of 31.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.51.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of 19.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 10.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AQZ ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics - Overnight Price: $2.54
Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Overweight (1) -
Alliance Aviation Services delivered a mixed 1H25 result with continued impressive earnings growth but adjusted operating cash conversion remained below historic norms, Wilsons highlights.
The broker downgraded flight hours on a reduction in the average operating fleet by three in FY26 and six in FY27, reflecting potential efforts to optimise the fleet.
The analyst raised EBITDA forecasts, driven by a strong recent run rate in EBITDA per aircraft, partially offset by higher labour costs and a lower average operating fleet.
Target price cut to $3.93 from $4.32. Overweight maintained.
This report was published on February 14, 2025.
Target price is $3.93 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $1.39
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.35.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 42.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.99.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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