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Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Apr 14, 2022

Daily Market Reports | Apr 14 2022

This story features AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABB

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ABB   AKE   AMP   AWC   AX1   BHP (2)   BXB   CGF   CIA   CRN   CXO   DRR   EMN   FLT   FMG   GLN   IAG   IGO   ILU (2)   INA   INR   IRE   JBH   JRV   KED   KGN   LPI   LTR   MPL   NHC   NHF   OZL   PDL (2)   PDN   PLL   PLS   PPG (2)   PSC   QBE   RIO   S32   SFR   SLX   SUN   TPW   TRS   UBI   UNI   VUL   WES   WHC   WOW   WSA  

ABB    AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $5.55

Shaw and Partners rates ((ABB)) as Buy (1) –

Aussie Broadband's acquisition of Over The Wire has completed, with Shaw and Partners noting the purchase looks to be $35m earnings accretive in FY23, and that the addition of Over The Wire's management to the Aussie Broadband team adds to the company's growth expertise.

Completion of the deal drives 18%, 38% and 42% increases to Shaw and Partners' earnings per share forecasts through to FY24. The broker sees potential for further acquisitions for Aussie Broadband, particularly within the business segment. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $6.71 from $6.46.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $6.71 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: $1.16
If ABB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 70.25.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 2.20 cents and EPS of 21.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.93.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AKE    ALLKEM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $13.26

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AKE)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EV) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Allkem is one of the broker's key picks in the lithium space given its leverage to the lithium price and its business model.

Buy rating retained. Target price was listed at $16 in the report but has since been updated to $18 on April 11.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $13.26 Difference: $4.74
If AKE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP    AMP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $1.05

Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden makes negative investment mark-to-market earnings revisions across its insurance and diversified financial equities coverage, due to geopolitical tensions and increased expectations for interest rate rises.

Weaker markets weighed on funds under administration (FUA) for the wealth managers, points out the analyst.

The broker believes the risk of an inflated consensus EPS offsets demerger value catalysts for AMP and retains a Neutral rating and $1.10 target price.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.05
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWC    ALUMINA LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $1.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((AWC)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team forecasts a primary aluminium deficit of -2.2MT in 2022 but is less optimistic on alumina given swing supply and refinery restarts in China and new refining capacity in Indonesia. Goldman Sachs expects this will offset supply disruptions from Russian sanctions.

Alumina Ltd is rated Neutral on valuation. Target price eases to $2.10 from $2.20.

The broker cuts EPS forecasts -1% in FY22; -6% in FY23 and -2% in FY24 in response on higher alumina and aluminium costs and concerns that gas-price inflation in Europe may affect the San Ciprian refinery in Spain. The broker also spies cash flow headwinds.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.2
If AWC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.23, suggesting upside of 16.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.89 cents and EPS of 16.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 12.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.59 cents and EPS of 17.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of -27.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AX1    ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.53

Jarden rates ((AX1)) as Overweight (2) –

With online traffic up 16% across Jarden's suite of online retail stocks, and in-store footfall down -8%, Jarden is more confident that an omni-channel model will provide a competitive edge. 

Online traffic was up 77% for Travel retailers, 46% for Hardware and 15% for Grocery. The broker continues to favour reopeners and inflation plays, including Accent Group. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.70 from $3.00.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $1.17
If AX1 meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 60.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of -38.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.9, implying annual growth of 71.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $51.78

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as No Rating (-1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team remains bullish on copper and doubles its market-deficit forecast for 2022, as disruptions in Chile and Russia combine with a recovery in Chinese demand and imports, and rising green capital expenditure.

On the iron-ore front, the team spies upside risk as low supply offsets lower than forecast Chinese steel production, thanks to the Ukraine War and seasonal weakness in Australia and Brazil due to wet weather. The team also expects an easing in Chinese policy and a recovery in Chinese steel production.

Goldman Sachs is on rating restriction for BHP Group

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Current Price is $51.78. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $49.56, suggesting downside of -5.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 483.09 cents and EPS of 640.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 582.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 442.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 347.77 cents and EPS of 584.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 494.8, implying annual growth of -15.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 348.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners anticipates BHP Group shareholders will receive a $6.00 per share special dividend from the divestment of the company's petroleum business, ahead of a final $2.40 dividend in September. 

Under the terms of the BHP Petroleum and Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) merger, BHP Group will own a 48% stake of the newly expanded Woodside Petroleum, equating to a $30bn value, almost 80% higher than initially disclosed. 

Shaw and Partners notes Woodside Petroleum will make the $30bn payment via shares which BHP Group will pass on to its shareholders through its special dividend.

The Buy rating and target price of $51.00 are retained.

This report was published on April 12, 2022.

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $51.78 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $49.56, suggesting downside of -5.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1443.98 cents and EPS of 579.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 27.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 582.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 442.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 390.93 cents and EPS of 388.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 494.8, implying annual growth of -15.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 348.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB    BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $9.95

Jarden rates ((BXB)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden's base case sum-of-the-parts valuation for Brambles is $10.81, though when utilising recent peer M&A multiples the valuation rises to $14.55.

The analyst runs these numbers following recent media speculation of interest in Brambles from from private capital⁄infrastructure investors.

The broker believes the company's free cash flow profile would be of least appeal to suitors. Citi forecasts post dividend cash outflows of -US$377m for FY22 and -US$353m for FY23.

The Overweight rating and $11 target price are maintained.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.95 Difference: $1.05
If BXB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.53, suggesting upside of 15.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.67 cents and EPS of 52.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.62 cents and EPS of 54.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.1, implying annual growth of 6.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $6.87

Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden makes negative investment mark-to-market earnings revisions across its insurance and diversified financial equities coverage, due to geopolitical tensions and increased expectations for interest rate rises.

Weaker markets weighed on funds under administration (FUA) for the wealth managers, points out the analyst.

The broker finds Challenger's leverage to rising rates/wider spreads is appealing though somewhat priced in. The Neutral rating is retained while the target price falls to $6.95 from $7.05.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.87 Difference: $0.08
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.81, suggesting downside of -0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 23.50 cents and EPS of 41.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of -51.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.30 cents and EPS of 48.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $7.72

Goldman Sachs rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team remains bullish on copper and doubles its market-deficit forecast for 2022, as disruptions in Chile and Russia combine with a recovery in Chinese demand and imports, and rising green capital expenditure.

Champion Iron is Buy rated. Target price rises to $8.30 from $7.50.

The broker observes the company is trading in a net cash position as it ramps up the Phase II expansion of its high-grade Bloom Lake Project, the broker spying a potential Phase III production at even higher grades.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $0.58
If CIA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 109.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.08.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 43.19 cents and EPS of 92.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.31.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $2.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team expects the Ukraine war will continue to result in a tightening of coal supply and firm prices.

Coronado Global Resources is Buy rated, the broker citing a compelling valuation and strength in the metallurgical coal market.

EPS forecasts rise 9% in FY22 and 5% in FY23 and fall -2% in FY24.

Target price rises to $3 from $2.80.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.75
If CRN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 9.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 89.18 cents and EPS of 117.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 39.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 35.59 cents and EPS of 46.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 15.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of -58.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.37

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CXO)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EV) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Core Lithium's Speculative Buy rating and $1 target price are retained. 

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $4.77

Goldman Sachs rates ((DRR)) as Neutral rating (3) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team remains bullish on copper and doubles its market-deficit forecast for 2022, as disruptions in Chile and Russia combine with a recovery in Chinese demand and imports, and rising green capital expenditure.

On the iron-ore front, the team spies upside risk as low supply offsets lower than forecast Chinese steel production, thanks to the Ukraine War and seasonal weakness in Australia and Brazil due to wet weather. The team also expects an easing in Chinese policy and a recovery in Chinese steel production.

The forecast for alumina is less optimistic, but aluminium supply is tightening. The broker spies upside risk for zircon as the market remains in deficit due to mine depletion, production cuts and a rebound in ceramics demand.

Deterra Royalties is Neutral rated. Target price rises to $4.70 from $4.60.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of 68.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of -3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EMN    EURO MANGANESE, INC

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.41

Canaccord Genuity rates ((EMN)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EV) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Euro Manganese is one of the broker's top sector picks on the ASX, and Canaccord Genuity expects it will be a key beneficiary from the European push. The company is developing its Chvaletice battery manganese project in the Czech republic. It will establish a demonstration plant this year.

Speculative Buy rating and $1.30 target price retained.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.89
If EMN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 217% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $20.17

Jarden rates ((FLT)) as Neutral (3) –

With online traffic up 16% across Jarden's suite of online retail stocks, and in-store footfall down -8%, Jarden is more confident that an omni-channel model will provide a competitive edge. 

Online traffic was up 77% for Travel retailers, 46% for Hardware and 15% for Grocery. Jarden highlighted Flight Centre Travel as the standout for Travel, reporting a 162% web traffic increase in the month.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $22.90 from $16.10.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $22.90 Current Price is $20.17 Difference: $2.73
If FLT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.54, suggesting downside of -17.2%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -117.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $21.34

Goldman Sachs rates ((FMG)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

On the iron-ore front, the team spies upside risk as low supply offsets lower than forecast Chinese steel production, thanks to the Ukraine War and seasonal weakness in Australia and Brazil due to wet weather. The team also expects an easing in Chinese policy and a recovery in Chinese steel production.

Fortescue Metals is Sell rated given it is trading at a sharp premium to BHP Group and Rio Tinto. Target price rises to $15.20 from $14.70.

The broker spies execution risks on the Iron Bridge and Fortescue Future Industries (renewables) fronts, but suspects the company will benefit from better low-grade prices as Chinese producers opt for the cheaper product.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $21.34 Difference: minus $6.14 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.45, suggesting downside of -18.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 170.50 cents and EPS of 264.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 101.49 cents and EPS of 181.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 222.8, implying annual growth of -16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 154.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GLN    GALAN LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GLN)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EV) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Galan Lithium's Speculative Buy rating is retained. The target price is $3.40, which compares with the last entry in the FNArena database in December of $2.80.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $1.37
If GLN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.33

Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden makes negative investment mark-to-market earnings revisions across its insurance and diversified financial equities coverage, due to geopolitical tensions and increased expectations for interest rate rises.

Mark-to-market losses were the highest across domestic general insurers with rising bond yields compounding elevated catastrophe insurance costs. Nonetheless, general insurers are preferred for investment yield outlooks and positive real premium rate momentum.

The Buy rating and $5.40 target price for Insurance Australia Group are maintained.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $1.07
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.03, suggesting upside of 16.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 17.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 43.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $13.83

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EV) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Canaccord Genuity appreciate's IGO's exposure to the lithium sector but says its leverage to lithium prices is lower than the broker's lithium-space picks Allkem ((AKE)) and Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)), and notes the company still has to complete the Western Areas ((WSA)) acquisition.

Buy rating and $13 target price.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $13.83 Difference: minus $0.83 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.08, suggesting upside of 1.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.2, implying annual growth of 132.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 208.9, implying annual growth of 271.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $12.54

Goldman Sachs rates ((ILU)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Iluka Resources' Buy rating is retained after the recent the approval of the Eneabba Rare Earth Refinery. Target price rises 12% to $14.

Goldman Sachs believes the company is undervalued compared to peers and appreciates the company's mineral sands and rare earth pipeline. 

Meanwhile the broker's commodities team expects the zircon market to remain in global deficit.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.54 Difference: $1.46
If ILU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.45, suggesting downside of -7.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 103.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.7, implying annual growth of 11.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.4, implying annual growth of -4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((ILU)) as Buy (1) –

Iluka Resources plans to demerge Sierra Rutile, its Sierra Leone based mineral sands business, with the intention for Sierra Rutile to list on the ASX under the chairmanship of outgoing Iluka Resources chair Greg Martin. Shaw and Partners notes Iluka Resources will provide a $45m seed provision to Sierra Rutile.

The move will allow Iluka Resources to renew focus on Australian critical minerals, while Sierra Rutile focuses on West African mineral sands. The broker expects completion of the demerger in 2022, anticipating shareholders to gain a $0.50-1.00 profit. 

The Buy rating and target price of $14.00 are retained.

This report was published on April 14, 2022.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.54 Difference: $1.46
If ILU meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.45, suggesting downside of -7.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 93.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.7, implying annual growth of 11.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 92.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.4, implying annual growth of -4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA    INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $4.97

Goldman Sachs rates ((INA)) as Neutral (3) –

Ingenia Communities has downgraded earnings (EBIT) growth guidance to between 5% and 10% above FY21, compared with previous guidance of between 20% and 25% growth, but Goldman Sachs believes this merely represents a delay rather than a fundamental deterioration.

If anything, the broker believes the fundamentals around Land Lease are improving, inflation offering the prospect of rent rises. The company's holiday operations are also performing well, revenue rising 45% in the year to date and boasting strong forward bookings.

The broker believes the company represents a good inflation hedge and that Land Lease demand is strong enough to combat a moderate decline in house prices without suffering from settlement or margin pressure, thanks to favourable ageing population demographics and affordable housing issues.

Goldman Sachs revises down EPS forecasts -1% to -2% for FY22 and FY23, as timing delays on home settlements spill into FY23.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls -3.7% to $6.45 from $6.70.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $1.48
If INA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.59.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.41.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INR    IONEER LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.72

Canaccord Genuity rates ((INR)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EVs) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

ioneer's rating is Hold and the target price is 85c. This compares with the last rating in the FNArena database in August of Buy, and a target price of 60c.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.13
If INR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IRE    IRESS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $11.64

Shaw and Partners rates ((IRE)) as Sell (5) –

Iress has taken the divestment of its UK mortgages business off the table, citing purchase valuations were unlikely to provide shareholders with reasonable returns, but Shaw and Partners notes the sale would have provided improved potential for future capital management.

The broker had estimated sale proceeds up to $250m. Iress' long-term targets increase to net profit of $135m in FY25, up from $120m, after incorporating the UK mortgages business, but Shaw and Partners notes there is little precedent to support this level of growth.

Despite this, Iress has outperformed software peers since the sector peaked in November, and trades at the top end of its historical range.

The Sell rating and target price of $11.80 are retained.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $11.64 Difference: $0.16
If IRE meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.60, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 48.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.9, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 51.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 19.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $51.44

Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Upgrade to Underweight from Sell (2) –

With online traffic up 16% across Jarden's suite of online retail stocks, and in-store footfall down -8%, Jarden is more confident that an omni-channel model will provide a competitive edge. 

Online traffic was up 77% for Travel retailers, 46% for Hardware and 15% for Grocery. While Jarden notes sales of household goods have remained resilient, it is less positive on covid beneficiary retailers including JB Hi-Fi. 

The rating is upgraded to Underweight from Sell and the target price of $50.00 is retained.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $51.44 Difference: minus $1.44 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $57.65, suggesting upside of 13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 284.00 cents and EPS of 433.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 415.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 270.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 247.00 cents and EPS of 378.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 374.5, implying annual growth of -9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 241.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JRV    JERVOIS GLOBAL LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.93

Canaccord Genuity rates ((JRV)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EV) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Jervois Global is one of the broker's top battery sector picks on the ASX, and Canaccord Genuity expects it will be a key beneficiary from the European push. The company's Finland cobalt refinery avails it with an exposure to the European EV supply chain.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 75c from 60c.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If JRV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KED    KEYPATH EDUCATION INTERNATIONAL INC

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $1.90

Shaw and Partners rates ((KED)) as Buy (1) –

Despite a -42% share price decline since its listing, financial disclosure from Keypath Education International has left Shaw and Partners increasingly confident in the company's ability to breakeven in FY24.

The broker expects share price performance to be indicative of cash burn concern, but notes a breakeven in FY24 is a realistic target. Shaw and Partners highlights the company has already closed 28 of a forecast 29 programs for FY23, giving it strong visibility.

Keypath Education International is a top pick for Shaw and Partners. The Buy rating and target price of $4.10 are retained.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $2.2
If KED meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.35.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.30.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN    KOGAN.COM LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $5.17

Jarden rates ((KGN)) as Upgrade to Underweight from Sell (2) –

With online traffic up 16% across Jarden's suite of online retail stocks, and in-store footfall down -8%, Jarden is more confident that an omni-channel model will provide a competitive edge. 

Online traffic was up 77% for Travel retailers, 46% for Hardware and 15% for Grocery. Jarden is less positive on online pure plays such as Kogan.com, preferring retailers with reopening or inflation plays.

The rating is upgraded to Underweight from Sell and the target price decreases to $7.51 from $8.86.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $7.51 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: $2.34
If KGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LPI    LITHIUM POWER INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.86

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LPI)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EVs) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Lithium Power International's rating is Speculative Buy. Target price is $1.20. This compares with its last target price in the FNArena database in June 2021 of 55c.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.34
If LPI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.66

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LTR)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EVs) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Liontown Resources' rating is Speculative Buy and its target price is $2.30, which compares with a target price of $1.70 in October.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.64
If LTR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MPL    MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $3.15

Jarden rates ((MPL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden makes negative investment mark-to-market earnings revisions across its insurance and diversified financial equities coverage, due to geopolitical tensions and increased expectations for interest rate rises.

While covid tailwinds continue to assist the private health insurers, the broker is cautious about the impact of mortgage rates rises upon affordability for customers.

The analyst notes a more conservative stance by Medibank Private on covid claims provisions enables greater policyholder support than peers. The Overweight rating and $3.45 target are retained.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $0.3
If MPL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 13.60 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of -4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of 6.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $3.73

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team expects the Ukraine war will continue to result in a tightening of coal supply and firm prices.

New Hope is downgraded to Sell from Neutral given recent share price strength. Target price rises to $3 form $2.92.

Goldman Sachs says while the company is a low-cost high-margin producer at Bengalla, the mine has no production growth and the company's New Acland Stage 3 proposal is (still) awaiting approval.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting upside of 1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 21.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.9, implying annual growth of 1021.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 19.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.2, implying annual growth of -19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 13.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHF    NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $6.39

Jarden rates ((NHF)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden makes negative investment mark-to-market earnings revisions across its insurance and diversified financial equities coverage, due to geopolitical tensions and increased expectations for interest rate rises.

While covid tailwinds continue to assist the private health insurers, the broker is cautious about the impact of mortgage rates rises upon affordability for customers.

The analyst retains a Neutral rating for nib Holdings and lowers the target price to $6.80 from $6.90.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: $0.41
If NHF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 29.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of -0.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 31.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.7, implying annual growth of -4.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OZL    OZ MINERALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $26.02

Goldman Sachs rates ((OZL)) as Upgraded to Buy from Neutral (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team remains bullish on copper and doubles its market-deficit forecast for 2022, as disruptions in Chile and Russia combine with a recovery in Chinese demand and imports, and rising green capital expenditure.

OZ Minerals is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target price rises to $28.70 from $27.65.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $28.70 Current Price is $26.02 Difference: $2.68
If OZL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.28, suggesting downside of -5.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 45.50 cents and EPS of 227.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.1, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 74.40 cents and EPS of 248.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 124.9, implying annual growth of -23.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDL    PENDAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $5.27

Bell Potter rates ((PDL)) as Buy (1) –

The Pendal Group board has rejected Perpetual's ((PPT)) bid, citing it is not in the best interests of shareholders. Bell Potter notes the board's statement highlighted that the low bid undervalued Pendal Group.

However, the broker further highlights having rejected the proposal and losing the potential synergies it offered, Pendal Group's management should now feel under pressure to deliver something better for shareholders, meaning a share price above $6.00.

Bell Potter considers a revised offer from Perpetual to be unlikely.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $6.80 from $7.48.

This report was published on April 14, 2022.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $1.53
If PDL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 45.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.1, implying annual growth of -3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 46.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of -1.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Jarden rates ((PDL)) as Buy (1) –

Following a rejection of Perpetual's ((PPT)) bid, Pendal Group announced a $100m on-market. Separately, March quarter flows materially improved, observes Jarden.

While making only minor adjustments to flow estimates, the broker considers the group offers superior EPS potential relative to peers and retains its Buy rating. The target price slips to $6.40 from $6.60.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $1.13
If PDL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.08, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 44.20 cents and EPS of 46.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.1, implying annual growth of -3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 46.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.6, implying annual growth of -1.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDN    PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.91

Shaw and Partners rates ((PDN)) as Buy (1) –

Paladin Energy will complete a $215m equity raise to prepare for the restart of the Langer Heinrich uranium mine. Shaw and Partners notes US$87m is required for the restart, leaving the company in an exceptionally strong cash position and able to pay dividends in 2024.

The company has outlined an 18 month timeframe from commencement to first production, with full production expected in a further 15 months. Paladin Energy also recently won a long-term award with a leading US utility for 5% of production through to 2030.

Shaw and Partners considers Paladin Energy the sector stand out on a risk-reward basis. The Buy rating and target price of $1.30 are retained.

This report was published on April 12, 2022.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.39
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 224.14.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 674.07.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLL    PIEDMONT LITHIUM INC

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.92

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PLL)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EVs) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Piedmont Lithium's is rated Buy and its target price is $1.55, which compares with the last entry in the FNArena database in November of $1.35.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.63
If PLL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.96

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PLS)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EV) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Pilbara Minerals is one of the broker's top picks in the lithium space given its leverage to lithium prices and its business model, and Canaccord Genuity expects it will be a key beneficiary from the European push. 

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $3.70 compared with the last entry in the FNArena database in February of $3.80.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.74
If PLS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.94, suggesting upside of 33.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.7, implying annual growth of 204.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPG    PRO-PAC PACKAGING LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $1.22

Moelis rates ((PPG)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Pro-Pac Packaging plans to sell its Rigid business to TricorBraun for $56m and settle on June 30.

Moelis expects the sale will cut the company's net debt to $7.2m from $82.1m and the balance will be used to invest in sustainable initiatives within its Flexibles division.

The company has entered a transitional service agreement with TricorBraun for up to 12 months.

Moelis views the divestment of the Rigid business as a positive for Pro-Pac given it provides capital to cut debt and fund new investments; is value-accretive; and simplifies the business model.

The broker backs management, which has been battling challenging covid-induced operating conditions. 

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold following the recent share price retreat. Target price rises to $1.63 from $1.36.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.41
If PPG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.80 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.99.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.87.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Shaw and Partners rates ((PPG)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Pro-Pac Packaging has announced the divestment of its Rigid business to US packaging distributor TricorBraun for $56m. Shaw and Partners notes the sale price represents a 50% premium to the group at the time of the announcement. 

The broker expects the sale will allow Pro-Pac Packaging to focus further on its core Flexible business, and notes there is a possibility of the company also divesting its recently improved Industrial business to become a Flexible packaging pure play.

Guidance is retained, with the company appearing to manage supply chain and labour volatility well. The broker notes the sale materially derisks the company's high net debt ratio.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price increases to $1.68 from $1.40.

This report was published on April 12, 2022.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.46
If PPG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.40 cents and EPS of 11.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.89.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 14.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.53.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PSC    PROSPECT RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.91

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PSC)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EVs) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Prospect Resources is Buy rated and its target price is $1.10. 

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.19
If PSC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 91.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $11.81

Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden makes negative investment mark-to-market earnings revisions across its insurance and diversified financial equities coverage, due to geopolitical tensions and increased expectations for interest rate rises.

Mark-to-market losses were the highest across domestic general insurers with rising bond yields compounding elevated catastrophe insurance costs. Nonetheless, general insurers are preferred for investment yield outlooks and positive real premium rate momentum.

The Buy rating is maintained for QBE Insurance maintained, while the target price climbs to $14.55 from $14.40.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $14.55 Current Price is $11.81 Difference: $2.74
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.38, suggesting upside of 21.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 62.25 cents and EPS of 86.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 86.60 cents and EPS of 128.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.1, implying annual growth of 35.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $120.50

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team remains bullish on copper and doubles its market-deficit forecast for 2022, as disruptions in Chile and Russia combine with a recovery in Chinese demand and imports, and rising green capital expenditure.

On the iron-ore front, the team spies upside risk as low supply offsets lower than forecast Chinese steel production, thanks to the Ukraine War and seasonal weakness in Australia and Brazil due to wet weather. The team also expects an easing in Chinese policy and a recovery in Chinese steel production.

Goldman Sachs commodities team forecasts a primary aluminium deficit of 2.2MT in 2022 but is less optimistic on alumina given swing supply and refinery restarts in China and new refining capacity in Indonesia. Goldman Sachs expects this will offset supply disruptions from Russian sanctions. Rio Tinto's Buy rating is retained. Target price rises to $136.40 from $131.50.

The broker says the March quarter proved difficult for the company as labour shortages created project tie-in problems, but expects the company will return to production growth in mid-2022 with both stronger iron ore and copper volumes.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $136.40 Current Price is $120.50 Difference: $15.9
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $121.36, suggesting upside of 0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 1280.11 cents and EPS of 1554.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1750.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1221.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1192.15 cents and EPS of 1324.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1236.3, implying annual growth of -29.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 885.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $5.12

Goldman Sachs rates ((S32)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team forecasts a primary aluminium deficit of 2.2MT in 2022 but is less optimistic on alumina given swing supply and refinery restarts in China and new refining capacity in Indonesia. Goldman Sachs expects this will offset supply disruptions from Russian sanctions.

South32 is Buy rated. Target price eases to $5.80 from $5.90.

The broker's EPS forecasts rise 3% in FY22; and are downgraded -5% in FY23 and -4% in FY24 after increasing unit cost forecasts in outer years, mainly for downstream refineries and smelters.

But South32 stays on Goldman Sachs' conviction list, the broker forecasting strong free cash flow and an extension of the buyback, which should boost capital returns – a dividend yield of 8% to 13% is forecast between FY22 and FY24.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: $0.68
If S32 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 17.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.60 cents and EPS of 77.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 66.31 cents and EPS of 87.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of -0.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $5.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((SFR)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team remains bullish on copper and doubles its market-deficit forecast for 2022, as disruptions in Chile and Russia combine with a recovery in Chinese demand and imports, and rising green capital expenditure.

Sandfire Resources is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. The broker is cautious about the MATSA copper/zinc acquisition given operating risks and recent negative guidance. Ditto for Botswana/Motheo given execution risks.

Target price eases to $5.70 from $5.80.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.53 Difference: $0.17
If SFR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 31.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of -52.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLX    SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $1.63

Shaw and Partners rates ((SLX)) as Buy (1) –

With two bills to improve domestic supply of uranium, and diminish Russian and Chinese nuclear fuel reliance, on the table Shaw and Partners anticipates Silex Systems could benefit from US Congress supported revitalisation and funding initiatives for the nuclear industry.

Silex Systems remains focused on the development of its laser isotrope separation technology, the primary application of which is production of nuclear fuels.

The Buy rating and target price of $3.40 are retained.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $1.77
If SLX meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 85.79.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 101.87.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $11.14

Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Buy (2) –

Jarden makes negative investment mark-to-market earnings revisions across its insurance and diversified financial equities coverage, due to geopolitical tensions and increased expectations for interest rate rises.

Mark-to-market losses were the highest across domestic general insurers with rising bond yields compounding elevated catastrophe insurance costs. Nonetheless, general insurers are preferred for investment yield outlooks and positive real premium rate momentum.

The Overweight rating and $12.50 target price for Suncorp Group are maintained.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $11.14 Difference: $1.36
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.72, suggesting upside of 24.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 65.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.5, implying annual growth of -16.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 89.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.4, implying annual growth of 28.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $6.22

Jarden rates ((TPW)) as Overweight (2) –

With online traffic up 16% across Jarden's suite of online retail stocks, and in-store footfall down -8%, Jarden is more confident that an omni-channel model will provide a competitive edge. 

Online traffic was up 77% for Travel retailers, 46% for Hardware and 15% for Grocery. Jarden notes sales of household goods have remained resilient, with Temple & Webster an 11% web traffic increase in March.

The Overweight rating and target price of $15.09 are retained.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $15.09 Current Price is $6.22 Difference: $8.87
If TPW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 143% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.26, suggesting upside of 94.3%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -43.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 95.6.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 33.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 71.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TRS    REJECT SHOP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $5.25

Jarden rates ((TRS)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden has greater conviction than previously that inflation coupled with the new format/better execution will deliver more than 5% sales growth in FY23 for the Reject Shop. Nonetheless, the $10.40 target price is unchanged.

The gross margin could come under pressure from rising freight costs, acknowledges the broker, though the exchange rate is expected to offset most of the cost impact.

The company is a key long-term Buy for Jarden, with value shoppers soon expected to return on the re-opening, driving upside risk to the consensus sales forecast.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $5.25 Difference: $5.15
If TRS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.53, suggesting upside of 40.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of -48.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 40.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 141.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBI    UNIVERSAL BIOSENSORS, INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.80

Bell Potter rates ((UBI)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Bell Potter initiates coverage on biosensor development company Universal Biosensors. The broker considers Universal Biosensors to be a market leader with both its Sentia wine testing device and Xprecia blood coagulation devices. 

The broker expects clinical trial results for the company's Xprecia Prime device to be the next catalyst, and anticipates device launch by early 2023 and for the company to achieve profitability by the end of FY24.

The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $1.25.

This report was published on April 13, 2022.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.45
If UBI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 18.60.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 66.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI    UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $5.37

Jarden rates ((UNI)) as Overweight (2) –

With online traffic up 16% across Jarden's suite of online retail stocks, and in-store footfall down -8%, Jarden is more confident that an omni-channel model will provide a competitive edge. 

Online traffic was up 77% for Travel retailers, 46% for Hardware and 15% for Grocery. The broker continues to favour reopeners and inflation plays, including Universal Store. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $9.00 are retained.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $3.63
If UNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 61.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.1, implying annual growth of -12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.1, implying annual growth of 48.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VUL    VULCAN ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $9.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((VUL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity reviews the battery supply chain sector after Europe surpassed 20% penetration for electric vehicles (EV) in 2021, selling 2.2m compared with 8.3m combustion engine cars, suggesting a rapid escalation in EV sales pending supply chain issues.

The broker's modelling suggests a sharp kick-up in penetration in the four years after EV penetration when a country passes the 20% mark, building to a "tsunami". 

Norway has reached 86% EV penetration and Canaccord Genuity believes the focus is now shifting to Germany, UK, France, Italy and Spain (GUFIs), which account for 80% of all vehicles sold in Europe.

The European Battery Alliance announced its plan to invest E127bn in the battery supply chain at the end of 2021 and another E925m to battery research projects by 2027.

The broker reports the European Strategic Action Plan has been updated and is targeting 1 terrawatt of battery demand by 2030 and outlines domestic target for cell making (90%); domestic active materials (40%) and recycling (100%). Meanwhile punitive regulations on vehicle emission are expected to rise, which the broker expects will be sufficient to accelerate the shift.

Vulcan Energy Resources is one of the broker's top sector picks on the ASX, and Canaccord Genuity expects it will be a key beneficiary from the European push. The company is developing a zero carbon lithium project in Germany. It will establish a demonstration plant this year.

Target price rises to $23 from $21 (the last entry in the FNArena database in December). Speculative Buy rating retained.

This report was published on April 4, 2022.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $9.03 Difference: $13.97
If VUL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 155% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $48.38

Jarden rates ((WES)) as Overweight (2) –

With online traffic up 16% across Jarden's suite of online retail stocks, and in-store footfall down -8%, Jarden is more confident that an omni-channel model will provide a competitive edge. 

Online traffic was up 77% for Travel retailers, 46% for Hardware and 15% for Grocery. Wesfarmers' Myer brand was the broker's standout in Department stores, with web traffic up 23% in the month, but the broker continues to favour retailers with a reopening play. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $58.90 from $60.00.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $58.90 Current Price is $48.38 Difference: $10.52
If WES meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $54.10, suggesting upside of 11.8%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 194.2, implying annual growth of -7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.9, implying annual growth of 9.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 172.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC    WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $4.54

Goldman Sachs rates ((WHC)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades 2022 EPS estimates for the mining sector by more than 10% to the top end of most company guidance based on strong spot commodities prices.

The broker warns that recent strong price movements will be partly offset by rising operating and capital expenditure given cost inflation.

The broker expects inflation will outpace most consensus estimates and suspects that while there may be some negative surprises, commodity-price strength will win the day.

Goldman Sachs commodities team expects the Ukraine war will continue to result in a tightening of coal supply and rising prices.

Whitehaven Coal is Buy rated. Target price rises to $5.30 from $4.70. 

Goldman Sachs notes the company is trading at a -15% discount to net asset valuation and boasts a compelling de-gearing and capital-return story. 

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.54 Difference: $0.76
If WHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.36, suggesting upside of 15.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 155.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 120.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.9.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 108.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.1, implying annual growth of -15.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.5.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW    WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $38.26

Jarden rates ((WOW)) as Overweight (2) –

With online traffic up 16% across Jarden's suite of online retail stocks, and in-store footfall down -8%, Jarden is more confident that an omni-channel model will provide a competitive edge. 

Online traffic was up 77% for Travel retailers, 46% for Hardware and 15% for Grocery. The broker continues to favour reopeners and inflation plays, including Woolworths Group. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $40.00 from $37.55.

This report was published on April 11, 2022.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $38.26 Difference: $1.74
If WOW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $37.08, suggesting downside of -3.6%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.8, implying annual growth of -27.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 87.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.5, implying annual growth of 15.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA    WESTERN AREAS LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $3.84

Shaw and Partners rates ((WSA)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Western Areas has successfully negotiated a 15% increase to IGO's ((IGO)) bid price, bringing the offer to $3.87 per share from $3.36. Shaw and Partners notes the company pushed for a higher bid price off the back of a sizeable increase to nickel pricing since the initial offer.

The new purchase price represented the halfway point between the initial bid and a potential $4.40 valuation for Western Areas. The broker finds the new share price a win for both companies, with the purchase price still favourable for IGO given elevated nickel pricing.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy with a target price of $3.87.

This report was published on April 12, 2022.

Target price is $3.87 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.03
If WSA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of -16.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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ABB AMP AWC AX1 BHP BXB CGF CIA CRN CXO DRR EMN FLT FMG GLN IAG IGO ILU INA INR IRE JBH JRV KED KGN LPI LTR MPL NHC NHF OZL PDL PDN PLL PLS PPG PPT PSC QBE RIO S32 SFR SLX SUN TPW TRS UBI UNI VUL WES WHC WOW

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABB - AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP - AMP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AWC - ALUMINA LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AX1 - ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BHP - BHP GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BXB - BRAMBLES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CGF - CHALLENGER LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CIA - CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CRN - CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CXO - CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DRR - DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EMN - EURO MANGANESE INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FLT - FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FMG - FORTESCUE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GLN - GALAN LITHIUM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IAG - INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IGO - IGO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ILU - ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: INA - INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: INR - IONEER LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IRE - IRESS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JBH - JB HI-FI LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: JRV - JERVOIS GLOBAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KED - KEYPATH EDUCATION INTERNATIONAL INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KGN - KOGAN.COM LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LPI - LITHIUM POWER INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LTR - LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MPL - MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NHC - NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NHF - NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OZL - OZ MINERALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDL - PENDAL GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PLL - PIEDMONT LITHIUM INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PLS - PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPG - PRO-PAC PACKAGING LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PPT - PERPETUAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PSC - PROSPECT RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QBE - QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SFR - SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SLX - SILEX SYSTEMS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SUN - SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TPW - TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TRS - REJECT SHOP LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: UBI - UNIVERSAL BIOSENSORS INC

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: UNI - UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VUL - VULCAN ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WES - WESFARMERS LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WOW - WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED