ESG Focus: Tough Season But Winners Grin

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The story below was originally published on 22 March 2023. It has now been re-published to amend information about Lynas Rare Earths and the Science-Based Target Initiative (SBTi).

FNArena's dedicated ESG Focus news section zooms in on matters Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) that are increasingly guiding investors preferences and decisions globally. For more news updates, past and future: 
https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/daily-financial-news/category/esg-focus/

ESG Focus: Tough Season As Winners Emerge

Macro concerns overshadowed ESG developments during the February reporting season, but there was plenty to report: decarbonisation continued apace; green commodities entered rocky water but other revenue-generating projects progressed; and regulators took aim.

-Rate rises and US Inflation Reduction Act rock the green boat
-Decarbonisation dominates
-Sustainability finance retreats
-Green revenues down but definitely not out 
-Circularity revenues crank up
-Biodiversity raises its head
-Enforcers strike green-washers
-Fatalities on the rise

By Sarah Mills

NOTE: Much of this article relies on research and notes published by Jarden, Macquarie and UBS.

The ESG mood during the February reporting season was starkly subdued in comparison to previous years as rising interest rates, inflation, and the tech retreat took centre stage.

Surprisingly, not much attention was paid by analysts to the impacts of the US Inflation Reduction Act in the December half, which sharply affects the competitiveness of Australian green industries. Or even of the impact of higher interest rates and an impending US recession on green projects. Nor on the retreat of sustainability finance markets in 2022.

But the signs were there.

As global competition and interest rates rose in 2022, the willingness of investors to lay bets on longer-term projects was sorely tested.

Fortescue Metals’ ((FMG)) experienced the break-up of two of Fortescue Future Industries’ big projects in January. Plug Power exited the Gladstone JV to focus on its US business and Fortescue Metals in turn pulled the plug on its Sun Cables venture with Mike Cannon Brookes, after Andrew Forrest disputed the economics of the project’s Singaporean link.

While Plug Power has its own problems, there is little doubt that extremely attractive US green hydrogen subsidies, to the tune of up to US$3 a kilogram would have been an extremely attractive prospect and incentive for the company to withdraw its resources back to the United States.

Europe responded to the US’s IRA by introducing the Green Deal Industrial Plan in February, adapting covid recovery funds to green initiatives and accelerating access to finance. Brussels is also working through its export credits strategy to ensure foreign subsidies such as the IRA do not hurt clean technology competition in the EU.

Dynamics shift when money comes at a price.

With interest rates and fuel prices rising, and sustainability finance slowing sharply, oil and gas stocks proved to be one of the few companies left flush enough to freely pursue their green ambitions.

Green Finance Down But Not Out

Green, social, sustainability, sustainability-linked (SLB) and transition bond volumes (GSS+) fell year on year in 2022 for the first time in a decade, according to the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI), after beating a hasty retreat in the December half.

But the instruments did hold their 5% share of the global bond market.

The upshot was that very few ASX-listed companies hit the GSS+ market in the December half.

Having said that, Mirvac Group ((MGR)) refinanced its CBI-certified green debt, taking its green facilities to $2bn.

However, the CBI believes 2023 will prove a tipping point for the market as global incentives kick in and the government targets hard to abate sectors.

My guess is that now that interest rates have risen, green finance may be able to attract more material discounts to generic fixed-income markets, not to mention the skewing effect of the Inflation Reduction Act on earnings, which could backstop green loans.

All up, developments in the December half highlighted the cost of Australia’s failure to move earlier on green initiatives.

Decarbonisation

Meanwhile, decarbonisation continued apace.

UBS reports that more companies reported on decarbonisation and were creating road maps, and many more brought forward emissions targets, a clear gap emerging between winners and laggards.

The rollout of solar installations featured strongly among the REITs and miners, and many advised that the cost savings had proved material given high energy prices. Region Group ((RGN)) received special notice from analysts for the expansion of its solar plans for centres.

Macquarie observes Telstra ((TLS)), Orora ((ORA)), ASX ((ASX)) and Ansell ((ANN)) are on track to meet their decarbonisation targets; and that Corporate Travel Management ((CTD)) and Charter Hall Retail REIT ((CQR)) brought forward or issued new targets, and Codan ((CDA)), and Netwealth Group ((NWL)) advised they were mapping emissions.

The analyst observes Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ)) cut its exposure to thermal coal to 25% of above-rail revenue, from 33% in FY22, making its less-than-20% target by 2030 something of a shoo-in.

Fortescue Metals announced it would trial its first battery-powered haul trucks within six months. The company recently produced decent volumes of green metallics from its iron ore without producing carbon dioxide emissions in one of its WA plants.

Sims ((SMG)) transitioned to 100% renewable electricity in India, Poland and the Netherlands. The company was also one of 48 companies to sign a global climate policy engagement agreement at COP27 last year.

Sims' policy alignment with government ambitions suggests management is highly attuned to the business opportunities presented by the transition.

The company is ramping up ahead of an anticipated global push on green steel in FY24 (see circularity earnings below for more information).

Boral ((BLD)) and Seven Group ((SVW)) announced the Berrima chlorine bypass is on track, with concrete re-carbonisation offsetting up to 55% of process emissions. Coates and Westrac rolled out solar and more green fleet vehicles.

AGL Energy ((AGL)) started construction of its $41m grid-scale lithium-ion battery-based energy storage system at Broken Hill, which is set to be operational by mid-2023 and was making progress on several other projects.

Both UBS and Macquarie observe that Santos ((STO)) and Woodside Energy ((WDS)) published their Climate Reports outlining their decarbonisation expenditure, emissions reduction and clean energy projects.

Despite reducing overall emissions, Woodside is still heavily reliant on offsets, but the oil and gas producer advised it was trying to weight its offsets to removals over avoidance and reduction.

Woodside has to date spent very little of its committed net zero funding (see greenwashing and ASIC fines below). The company has a few hydrogen projects on the go, but as yet, the rubber has to hit the road.

Both Santos and Woodside both announced they would continue with what is considered to be among the most unviable of decarbonisation efforts – CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage).

While investing in a pilot CCUS, Woodside appears to have had as much success as everyone else, and doubts the technology will be viable prior to 2030 – and by that time who knows where solar, tree planting, and hydrogen technology will be.

Santos announced it had brought forward its Direct Air Capture trials to 2023 and has achieved a final investment decision on a PNG biomass abatement project, which at face values appears far more likely to be successful at storing carbon (the technology is proven after all) than CCUS. 

This earns the company biodiversity points by building habitat and decarbonisation points through the creation of a carbon sink. (See biodiversity below)

Santos is also considering producing synthetic methane from hydrogen and has its Moomba hydrogen project and its Port Bonython Hydrogen Mobility project, observes Jarden.

But on the other side of the ledger are environmental shockers such as the Liverpool plains and Barossa fracking projects. 

All up, Santos remains deeply in the environmental red, but it’s a bit of a moot point given the company has sufficient funding to progress new oil and gas projects and few politicians willing to regulate in favour of the environment on major gas proposals.

Beach Energy ((BPT)) has its Otway CCS feasibility study on the go, and Macquarie believes this will be a differentiator for the company. The broker observes the company is on schedule for its first carbon dioxide injection at Moomba in 2024.

On the finance front, analysts gave the gong to Commonwealth Bank of Australia ((CBA)), which reduced its exposure to oil and gas and mining to $3.2bn (0.5% of Group TCE).

Orora signed a contract to upgrade Gawler’s G3 furnace to oxy-fuelled technology in FY25, which should result in a -20% cut in emissions.

South32 ((S32)) secured 100% renewable electricity at Sierra Gorda in January and announced it was advancing decarbonization at Worsely Alumina from coal to liquid natural gas by mid year.

Wesfarmers' ((WES)) Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions rose due to higher ammonia producton and the addition of a health division, but Macquarie observes Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks cut emissions by -15.3%.

Ansell announced solar investments in its Sri Lanka, Thailand and Malaysia manufacturing facilities and advised it now sources 25% of its electricity in renewables. Ansell plans to cut water withdrawals by the end of FY25 and invested in a reverse osmosis system at its Kedah manufacturing facility in Malaysia during the December half.

The company plans to achieve zero waste to landfill by 2023 and is well on target to achieve that.

More companies announced a focus on Scope 3 (supply chain emissions).

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT ((CLW)) proved a bright light, accelerating its net zero target by five years to 2025 and management plans to set a SBTi-aligned Scope 3 target by FY23.

Mirvac Group ((MGR)) expected to be net positive on Scope 3 emissions by 2030, notes Macquarie, and Transurban ((TCL)) is also ahead of schedule to meet its net zero target by 2030.

Green Revenues Down But Ready to Roar

It was a tough half for green revenues, as green commodities took a hit.

Jarden observes lithium companies finally succumbed to the macro misfortunes hitting the broader based metals market, Mineral Resources ((MIN)) and Allkem ((AKE)) both missing consensus targets.

The broker considered Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) to be the standout, the company posting a relatively strong result, and the introduction of the toll conversion model linking spodumene concentrate sales to the lithium hydroxide price, as it forges a path towards integrated lithium chemical production was considered a plus.

Outside of lithium producers, ESG revenues and project developments featured strongly, G.U.D. Holdings ((GUD)), Boral, Sims and Fortescue Metals among the standouts.

GUD witnessed a 53% jump in EV sales to 121,000 units in 2022, and Macquarie expects the company to be a beneficiary of the National EV Strategy.

Small cap SG Fleet Group ((SGF)) cited a sharp jump in EV interest across all geographies and expects payday to hit when supply and model availability issues normalise in Australia.

The company also observed favourable tax benefits emerging in the UK, and advised fringe benefits tax exemptions were boosting interest in its novated channel, with customer inquiries for eligible vehicles jumping four fold.

Boral announced low carbon concrete sales rose to 26% of sales in December.

Fortescue Metals announced it was ramping up exploration into copper, rare earths and lithium, and advised five green energy projects were due for final decision in 2023. Forest Future Industries has plenty of money in the kitty to pursue these projects.

Evolution Mining’s ((EVN)) Mt Rawdon hydro project feasibility study was progressing.

Circularity revenue also featured strongly (see the section on circularity below) with Boral, G.U.D. Holdings, Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY)), and Pact Group ((PGH)) all announcing strategic circularity investments, some of which were already delivering earnings, and others scheduled to deliver in 2024 and beyond.

Renewable energy continued to gain traction in the half. Among the Gentaillers, Contact Energy ((CEN)), Mercury NZ ((MCY)), and Metgasco ((MEL)) all launched solar and other renewable projects and solid pipelines.

Contact said it was examining carbon capture options at its geothermal facilities. Meanwhile, hydro generation rose 9% in the December half.

Origin Energy ((ORG)) plans to raise its renewables and energy storage capacity to 4GW by 2030; it bought the Yanco solar farm, and the Hunter Hydro is underway, targeting green hydrogen supply from the mid 2020s.

Beach Energy’s feasibility study for ammonia production is nearing completion.

ASX ((ASX)) spies tonnes of revenue opportunities for decarbonisation, management singling out electricity futures and carbon products.

The exchange has also applied to the CER to operate the Australian Carbon Exchange.

Fletcher Building ((FBU)) announced a 2050 net zero target and launched a lower carbon binder and concrete.

Circularity Cranking Up

There was movement at the circularity and recycling stations in the February reporting season.

Several companies announced strong progress on recycling investments, suggesting recycling may finally hit the investment radar in 2024 and 2025, if not beforehand.

Boral, Orora, Cleanaway, Pact Group, Woolworths ((WOW)) and Amcor ((AMC)) all announced initiatives, and Sims ramped up for its green steel push.

Orora made strong progress towards its 60% recycled content target in manufactured glass products (hitting 38%). Its recycling of corrugated board rose to 54%.

Macquarie observes Sims is preparing to ride the green-steel wave as augured by the formation of several NGOs, governments and industry associations, including:

-the US’ and EU’s commitment to negotiate the world’s first carbon-based sectoral arrangement on steel trade by 2024; and

-the newly formed Global Steel Climate Council, which supports a global standard to accelerate the transition to low-emission steel.

The upshot, says Macquarie, is that scrap will be in high demand as customers scramble to meet their decarbonisation and circularity targets. The analyst observes Sims has been increasing volumes to meet the forecast increase in demand from structural growth.

The company is also conducting trials to upgrade low-grade scrap to high-grade standards, and advises these trials are showing promising results. A win on this front would be a game-changer for the industry.

G.U.D. Holdings also launched Infinitev in November, after conducting a pilot program, which aims to generate circular revenues by recycling EV batteries, allowing them to be reused, repurposed and recycled indefinitely. If successful, this would have significant implications for the growth of lithium markets. 

Boral advised it plans four more recycling projects (in addition to the two already delivered) and management expected circularity earnings to grow from here on out.

Pact Group advised that recycling would contribute to FY24 earnings. 

Pact management advised its Circular Plastics Australia JV in Albury is in operation, and that recycling facilities at Laverton and Altona are under construction and due to open at the end of 2023 with more sites on or the drawing board.

The company announced platform upgrades at Process Foods and Dairy & Beverages to boost recycled content.

Cleanaway Waste Management progressed its Food Organics and Garden Organics recycling program, purchasing Global Renewables Holdings in September for $168.5m, gaining GRL’s strategically located Eastern Creek site in the process (think transport and carbon footprint, making it a circularity an decarbonisation double).

The acquisition contributed $8m in earnings (EBITDA) in the half.

Cleanaway’s waste-to-energy efforts appear less clear cut. Management advised it had delivered strong landfill gas capture efficiency improvements in the half, to meet its methane-reduction targets but the released December-half result was low on specifics.

As for energy revenue, markets and infrastructure for green methane seem to be thin on the ground at this stage of the game, and from an climate perspective, burning green methane still eventually results in emissions.

Amcor launched its AMPrima recycle-ready laminate and in December announced a partnership with plastic-to-oil technology company Licella to build one of Australia’s first plastic advanced recycling facilities.

The Melbourne plant has been approved by the Victorian Environmental Protection Agency, and is expected to process 20,000 tons of waste plastic a year.

Also during the period, REDcycle collapsed, leaving Coles ((COL)) and Woolworths ((WOW) with egg-on-face and on the wrong side of authorities (see greenwashing below).

 Biodiversity Wheeled In And Palmer’s Queensland Coal Project Wheeled Out

UBS observes biodiversity is starting to emerge onto the investment radar and that a growing number of small caps were starting to mention biodiversity in their results, the analyst singling out Bega Cheese ((BGA)) and GPT Group ((GPT)).

Also during reporting season, UBS noted Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek recently rejected Clive Palmer’s Central Queensland Coal Project, using the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999, on the basis that it threatened a water resource, the great barrier reef and several at-risk species.

UBS observes the Act is being reformed to give it more teeth.

The very same Tanya Plibersek also recently approved one of Australia’s most controversial and environmentally and socially indefensible projects in Australia – Santos’ fracking of the Liverpool plains, which lies above a critical aquifer (water comes under biodiversity) – so go figure. 

Biodiversity may yet shape up a big ESG challenge for Santos given the community and environmentalists do not appear likely to take Plibersek’s determination lying down.

However, high energy prices mean Santos should have a healthy war chest with which to execute the project, regardless of ESG capital flows. 

Governance Focus On Greenwashing

Greenwashing hogged the limelight on the governance front, as the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) slapped greenwashing fines on Mercer Superannuation and Black Mountain Energy ((BME)), sending a shudder down the spines of corporate Australia.

Mercer’s breach was a bit of a shocker, the company advising investors it had excluded alcohol, gambling and fossil fuel companies, when actually it had done the opposite. The Federal Court fined Mercer -$18.5m.

Black Mountain Energy was fined -$40,000 for three separate penalties relating to net zero carbon emissions statements (ASIC determined there was no credible evidence to back the company’s assertion, which has strong implications for the broader corporate market).

ASIC has advised that ESG will be an enforcement focus for 2023, and its remit will include sustainable finance practices, corporate governance, directors’ duties and climate-risk disclosure. 

So who’s next?

Jarden observes Woodside Energy has only spent -US$100m of the promised -US$5bn new-energy investment promised by 2030.

And Woodside isn’t the only one. Will 2023 herald a wave of capital expenditure commitments? Or will it witness a backtracking from net zero commitments, which could impact access to green finance in its supposedly “pivotal” year.

UBS observes more ESG topics are starting to creep onto agendas and slide decks, outlining transition pathways and decarbonisation as companies prepare for the global enforcement push.

Looking forward, UBS believes ASIC’s threat could lead funds to tighten ESG language, or implement less ambitious targets.

Meanwhile, Jarden observes the Science-Based Target Initiative (SBTi) is cracking down on members who fail to reach their emissions targets within two years of setting a commitment.

Australian Ethical Investment ((AEF)) and Westpac ((WBC)) are due to receive their SBTi rulings soon; Downer EDI’s ((DOW)) and Lend Lease’s ((LLC’s)) commitments fall due in March, and seven other companies have commitments due in 2023, mostly after September. 

Lynas Rare Earths ((LYC)) and Worley ((WOR)) have withdrawn from the initiative, the former citing an incompatible time frame for the SBTi's rollout of its Chemical Industries Pathway.

The SBTi may prove the canary in the ASIC greenwashing mine.

Climate Action 100 has observed in its report on Australian companies that disclosure has improved but capital allocations to meet commitments are lagging, as are credible transition plans.

Jarden observes companies under CBI's coverage include Abacus Property ((ABC)), AGL Energy, BHP Group ((BHP)), BlueScope Steel ((BSL)), Boral, Incitec Pivot ((IPL)), Orica ((ORI)), Origin Energy, Qantas Airways ((QAN)), Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Santos, South32, Woodside, and Woolworths.

Elsewhere on the governance front, AMP ((AMP)) and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises ((DMP)) hit the spotlight, after the latter beat a guidance retreat and the former delivered a fail on its transformation project.

For now, decarbonisation is most likely ASIC’s main target, which is just that well for Coles and Woolworths given the collapse of their REDcycle national recycling scheme in November.

The NSW Environment Protection Authority (EPA) and Fire Rescue NSW determined the waste stockpiles to be a potential fire threat, with 11 government areas classified as “high risk”.

The EPA ordered the pair to dump the stockpile at an estimated cost of -$3.5m, small fry in the scheme of the things, but the reputational cost is higher.

Social Metrics Deprioritised Under Force Of Labour Shortages

The standout on the Social front was a sharp rise in workplace-related injuries and fatalities, as companies appeared to deprioritise the “S” in favour of decarbonisation, and under the pressure of labour shortages.

The biggest TRIFR rises were recorded at OZ Minerals ((OZL)), Syrah Resources ((SYR)), and Gold Road Resources ((GOR)), says Jarden.

Cleanaway’s metrics retreated.

Macquarie observes fatalities at South32 (two deaths), Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) and Lendlease ((LLC)).

Orora, Wesfarmers and Netwealth all posted improved metrics, as did Evolution Mining, Fletcher Building, Imdex ((IMD)), Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) and Sims (the latter posting its lowest TRIFR on record thanks to more disciplined control and investment in traffic management roles).

Fortescue Metals advised it has awarded more than $4bn in contracts through its Billion Opportunities program to date and boasts a 15% indigenous employment rate across its Pilbara operations. 

Several companies also announced gender targets.

Jarden considers mandatory cashless gaming in NSW pubs and clubs by the end of 2029 to be one of the bigger ticket social items in the February reporting season and observes the outcome is due soon.

Working standards also garnered attention this season, and analysts expect news regarding the Modern Slavery Act Review this month.

G.U.D. Holdings advised it is developing an ethical sourcing platform. Ansell said it was progressing wave 2 of on onboarding suppliers of yarn, non-cotton textiles and synthetic lates and that it had narrowed its supplier platform to sustainability leaders. 

FNArena's dedicated ESG Focus news section zooms in on matters Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) that are increasingly guiding investors preferences and decisions globally. For more news updates, past and future: 
https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/daily-financial-news/category/esg-focus/

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