Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 17, 2025

This story features AGL ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGL

The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AGL   ALL   AMP   AOV   AQZ   ARF   ASK (2)   ASX   AVH   AZY   BOL   BXB   CBA   COH (2)   CPU   CQR (2)   DHG (2)   DXI   EVN (2)   FFM   FPH   GNC   GNE   GQG (2)   HDN (2)   HLI   IAG (2)   IMD   IPX   JHX   JIN   MGR   MIN   NST (2)   ORA   ORG (2)   PME (2)   RWC   S32   SGH   SPZ   SUN   TPW   TWE (2)   WEB   WGX   WTC  

AGL    AGL ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $10.71

Goldman Sachs rates ((AGL)) as Neutral (3) –

AGL Energy reported a stronger-than-expected 1H25 result with $1.07bn EBITDA 13% above Goldman Sachs’ forecast and 8% above consensus, supported by stronger electricity trading and origination earnings.

The ‘beat’ was achieved despite prolonged coal plant downtime, the broker notes.

The broker observes even after a strong 1H25, the company only slightly narrowed EBITDA guidance toward the top end to $1.935-2.135bn from $1.87-2.17bn.

Goldman continues to estimate earnings towards the top end at $2.09bn (previously $2.06bn). Target price rises to $11.90 from $11.50. Neutral rating maintained.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $10.71 Difference: $1.19
If AGL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.92, suggesting upside of 12.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.7, implying annual growth of -5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.2, implying annual growth of -0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $77.00

Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes Aristocrat’s Plarium sale completion arrived earlier than expected, enhancing final sales proceeds.

The company will deploy sales proceeds for its growth strategy, and capital management initiatives, and the broker anticipates a new on-market buyback announcement at the Feb 21 AGM.

The broker notes the company could not realise an acceptable, clean exit price for its residual Big Fish assets, which would now essentially move into run-off, cash optimisation mode.

Jarden remains constructive on Aristocrat’s growth business model and maintains its Neutral rating. Target price rises to $67 from $61 on roll forward of valuation, currency mark to market and earnings revisions.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $77.00 Difference: minus $10 (current price is over target).
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $74.39, suggesting downside of -4.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 94.00 cents and EPS of 280.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 268.9, implying annual growth of 31.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 92.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 301.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 293.2, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMP    AMP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.49

Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes AMP’s 2024 result was ahead of estimates yet concerns surrounding capital management remain uppermost for investors. Should the portfolio mix continue to trend towards managed accounts this could put further downward pressure on margins as well.

There were some key positives, with Jarden pointing out the business is delivering on cost cutting initiatives while flow momentum may be able to stem market share losses. Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $1.40 from $1.45.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 11.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.8, implying annual growth of 52.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.4, implying annual growth of 5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AOV    AMOTIV LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $10.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((AOV)) as Buy (1) –

Amotiv’s 1H25 net profit landed -3% below consensus expectations as revenue growth slowed in a tough automotive environment, Goldman Sachs notes. 

Despite the challenging near-term top-line outlook, the broker remains optimistic on cost restructuring and business investment outcomes into 2H25 and FY26. 

Goldman Sachs notes the company retained guidance for a slightly stronger EBITDA in the 2H vs 1H, driven by price increases in 3Q, new program launches, vehicle mix improvement and cost optimisation.

Target price cut to $12.20 from $13.00. Buy rating maintained. 

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $10.00 Difference: $2.2
If AOV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.16, suggesting upside of 31.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of 19.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.8, implying annual growth of 10.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ    ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $2.54

Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Overweight (1) –

Alliance Aviation Services delivered a mixed 1H25 result with continued impressive earnings growth but adjusted operating cash conversion remained below historic norms, Wilsons highlights.

The broker downgraded flight hours on a reduction in the average operating fleet by three in FY26 and six in FY27, reflecting potential efforts to optimise the fleet.

The analyst raised EBITDA forecasts, driven by a strong recent run rate in EBITDA per aircraft, partially offset by higher labour costs and a lower average operating fleet.

Target price cut to $3.93 from $4.32. Overweight maintained.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $3.93 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $1.39
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.35.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 42.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.99.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.91

Jarden rates ((ARF)) as Overweight (2) –

Following Arena REIT’s 1H25 result, Jarden highlights the ramp-up in acquisition activity shows a more active strategy which will be aided by ample balance sheet capacity (1H25 gearing of 20.8%). 

The broker notes income growth moderated over the 1H but sees an upside from here. The broker remains confident in management’s ability and track record to find a balance between pushing economic rents and delivering feasible developments.

Overweight rating and $4.55 target are maintained.

This report was published on February 12, 2025.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $0.64
If ARF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 7.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.10 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.8, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.20 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 2.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASK    ABACUS STORAGE KING

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.21

Jarden rates ((ASK)) as Neutral (3) –

Abacus Storage King revealed a strong operating update with Jarden highlighting a growing development pipeline as well as the performance of the recent acquisition.

Ongoing add-ons will further boost growth. Capital structure is also observed to be in “good shape”. Target rises to $1.28 from $1.25.

The stock is trading at a -24% discount to NTA and the broker suspects investors will want the distribution yield to grow more aggressively in order to narrow this discount. Neutral.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $1.28 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.075
If ASK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of -41.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of 3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((ASK)) as Buy (1) –

Abacus Storage King REIT beat Moelis’ forecast for 1H25 funds from operations with an outcome of 3.3c vs the broker’s 3.1c, on better-than-expected revenue per metre and higher capitalised interest.

The broker upgraded earnings given stronger-than-expected operating metrics, and higher-than-expected capitalised interest.

Target price rises to $1.38 from $1.36. Buy maintained.

This report was published on February 16, 2025.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.175
If ASK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of -41.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of 3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $66.98

Goldman Sachs rates ((ASX)) as Sell (5) –

Underlying net profit at ASX was slightly ahead of Goldman Sachs, amid higher interest and dividend income with better expenses partially offset by a weaker revenue outcome from markets.

Risks regarding regulatory action remain, the analyst suggests, including risks to capital expenditure guidance. The broker retains a Sell rating with a target of $61.00, up from $59.50.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $66.98 Difference: minus $5.98 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $64.01, suggesting downside of -5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 220.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 257.7, implying annual growth of 5.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 224.00 cents and EPS of 256.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.8, implying annual growth of 3.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 221.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH    AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $3.07

Wilsons rates ((AVH)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons Advisory noted Avita Medical now has all the FDA clearances in hand and more relaxed sales targets with its US$42m lender OrbiMed.

The trailing 12-month revenue targets for 1Q25 and 2Q25 are now US$73m and US$78m, respectively (previously US$75m and US$90m) and closer to Wilsons’ forecast of US$76m and US$85m.

The broker reckons the challenges will be cost control and execution in the 1H, but it will get a lot easier in the 2H. Market Weight rating and $3.2 target retained.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.07 Difference: $0.13
If AVH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZY    ANTIPA MINERALS LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.04

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AZY)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiated coverage on Antipa Minerals with a Speculative Buy rating and target price of 7c.

Antipa’s flagship asset is the 100%-owned Minyari Dome Gold Project in Western Australia. The October 2024 updated Scoping Study points to Minyari producing 128koz per annum over 10.25-year life of mine (LOM) for a cost of $1,722/oz and pre-production capital of -$306m.

The broker’s conservative model (60% weight) forecasts a standalone 10.5-year mine at Minyari Dome processed through a 3Mpta carbon-in-leach plant from FY28 to produce 124kozpa over LOM. Initial capex is estimated at -$350m and cost at $2,108/oz.

Alternatively, given the proximity to the Telfer gold mine, the broker is modelling a subset of the mine inventory being hauled to Telfer for processing at a rate of 2Mtpa to produce 94kozpa over an 8.25-year LOM.

Upfront capex in this scenario is estimated at -$55m and higher cost of $2,280/oz on account of haulage and tolling costs.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.034
If AZY meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.60.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOL    BOOM LOGISTICS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $1.40

Taylor Collison rates ((BOL)) as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (2) –

Taylor Collision initiated coverage on Boom Logistics with an Outperform rating but no target price.

The broker notes Boom has struggled historically with subpar Return on Net Assets (RoNA) and limited profitability on over $200m revenue.

The company’s performance materially improved since new leadership took over in 2H23.

With FY25 net profit guidance of $8m, up 21% on FY24, and a medium-term RoNA target of 15%, the stock remains undervalued at a -42% discount to peers, the broker observes.

The analyst highlights Australia’s transition to renewable energy and electrification is driving demand for crane services in wind farms and transmission line construction, and both are key growth areas for Boom.

This report was published on February 12, 2025.

Current Price is $1.40. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.22.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.81.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB    BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $19.28

Jarden rates ((BXB)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden has downgraded Brambles Ltd to Neutral from Overweight; with an increased target price of $19.45, up from $17.90 following a strong re-rating and increase in the company’s share price.

This report was published on February 10, 2025.

Target price is $19.45 Current Price is $19.28 Difference: $0.17
If BXB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.20, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 84.86 cents and EPS of 94.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 92.19 cents and EPS of 102.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.5, implying annual growth of 10.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $165.44

Jarden rates ((CBA)) as Downgrade to Sell from Underweight (5) –

Jarden views CommBank’s 1H result as “clean and simple” and likes the flexible and forward-looking investment mindset.

Headline net interest margin was better than expected at 208bps, but the broker expects it to nudge lower to 206bps in 2H on drags from lower cash rates.

The broker notes banks typically outperform on rate cuts but this cycle looks very different with already benign bad debts and healthy volumes. Rate cuts (when they come to pass) may drive sector rotation out of banks, the analyst believes.

Given the limited margin of safety, Jarden cuts its rating to Sell from Underweight. The broker lifted FY25 EPS by 1% and lowered FY26 by -1%.

Target price $110.

This report was published on February 12, 2025.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $165.44 Difference: minus $55.44 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $107.46, suggesting downside of -33.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 480.00 cents and EPS of 607.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 610.5, implying annual growth of 7.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 480.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 483.00 cents and EPS of 611.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 630.4, implying annual growth of 3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 496.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH    COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $262.73

Jarden rates ((COH)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden was disappointed with Cochlear’s first half result, noting services revenue was an issue, with revenue growth in this segment declining by -12%.

Guidance has been downgraded to the lower end of the net profit range of $410-430m. Implant unit growth remained at a robust 10%.

Jarden maintains a Neutral rating, noting the company has more confidence in its unit growth profile, based on expectations of a better contribution from emerging market as well as the launch of the latest implant. Target edges up to $264.71 from $263.75.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $264.71 Current Price is $262.73 Difference: $1.98
If COH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $285.54, suggesting upside of 6.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 430.90 cents and EPS of 619.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.7, implying annual growth of 5.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 441.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 438.70 cents and EPS of 762.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 639.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 493.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((COH)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Cochlear missed 1H services sales by -14% despite Wilsons’ forecasts already factoring in weaker services growth for FY25.

The broker reckons two consecutive services misses suggests the market may have misjudged growth following the first spectacular 18 months of the N8 processor product cycle.

The company’s 1H25 net profit and revenue missed also Wilsons’ forecast, by -3%. Management reiterated FY25 underlying net profit guidance but with expectations to the low end of guidance, which signals a miss to Wilsons’ forecast.

The broker cut FY25-26 EPS forecast by -2%. Target price lowered to $280 and rating downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $280.00 Current Price is $262.73 Difference: $17.27
If COH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $285.54, suggesting upside of 6.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 433.40 cents and EPS of 625.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 576.7, implying annual growth of 5.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 441.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 485.60 cents and EPS of 693.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 639.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 493.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU    COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $42.51

Goldman Sachs rates ((CPU)) as Neutral (3) –

Following a full review of Computershare’s 1H25 result, Goldman Sachs lifted earnings forecasts to reflect stronger-than-expected performance across core divisions and upgraded FY25 margin income guidance.

Target price rises to $38.0 from $35.5. Neutral rating maintained.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $42.51 Difference: minus $4.51 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $38.99, suggesting downside of -8.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 93.10 cents and EPS of 207.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 212.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 96.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 94.63 cents and EPS of 213.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.9, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR    CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.38

Jarden rates ((CQR)) as Overweight (2) –

Charter Hall Retail REIT’s asset recycling is bearing fruit, Jarden asserts, with resilient portfolio growth and steady comparable income growth.

Given an active market for non-discretionary retail assets, the broker expects the business will continue to improve its growth profile.

While understanding concerns regarding the track record of buying partial stakes in assets and partnerships, Jarden believes the current environment and the restrictions of the current capital structure mean a focus on adding scale and improving the growth profile is important.

Overweight. Target is raised to $3.70 from $3.60.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.32
If CQR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.0, implying annual growth of 778.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 26.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of -2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((CQR)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

Charter Hall Retail REIT reported 1H25 earnings per unit of 12.6c and a dividend of 12.3c, and reiterated full-year guidance.

Moelis reckons the REIT’s operating performance remained strong in the context of a tough consumer environment

The broker expects Charter Hall’s ((CHC)) acquisition of Hotel Property Investments ((HPI)) will result in the REIT owning 50% of the latter portfolio by June.

The analyst expects the deal to be marginally dilutive near-term, but expects this to resolve on Hotel Property’s relatively high embedded rent growth and expected RBA rate cuts.

Target price rises to $3.94 from $3.89, and rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

This report was published on February 16, 2025.

Target price is $3.94 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.56
If CQR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.70 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.0, implying annual growth of 778.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 25.10 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of -2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $3.10

Goldman Sachs rates ((DHG)) as Neutral (3) –

First half results from Domain Holdings Australia revealed listings growth of around 5%, with Goldman Sachs noting coverage versus competitor REA Group ((REA)) has returned to historical levels following a period of winning back clients.

Continued uptake in Platinum Edge and improvements in one-off depth downgrades were also noted although the fourth quarter is expected to provide challenging comparables.

FY25 listing volumes guidance has been narrowed to the low single digits. The broker revises estimates for FY25 EBITDA up by 3% and raises the target to $3.00 from $2.90. Neutral maintained.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting downside of -1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of 35.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of 16.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((DHG)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Domain Holdings Australia’s 1H25 EBITDA was 2% ahead of Jarden’s estimate due to lower operating costs and the company narrowed its FY25 cost guidance range to the lower end of its previous range.

Looking forward, the broker notes listing volumes are the key variable in 2H25 and estimates a conservative -2.5% decline. This has resulted in a 1% upgrade to its FY25 EBITDA estimate, which the analyst reckons is potentially conservative.

On Greg Ellis’ announcement as interim CEO, the broker expects the transition to be smooth and understands he will be actively making strategic decisions.

The broker has lifted FY25 EPS estimate by 11.5% and FY26 by around 8% mostly due to lower D&A. Rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy. Target is $3.30.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.2
If DHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting downside of -1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.90 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of 35.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of 16.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXI    DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.78

Moelis rates ((DXI)) as Buy (1) –

Dexus Industria REIT’s 1H25 earnings were ahead of the guidance run-rate, but this was largely a function of more favourable interest rate hedge cover in the first half, Moelis highlights.

The REIT reported 3.8% rent reviews in 1H25, aided by 12.2% of leasing spreads. Leasing was executed on just 7% of income in the first half, and the broker expects leasing outcomes to remain a tailwind to earnings over the medium term.

Net operating income growth was just 2.4% in 1H25 due to a short-term vacancy on a large tenancy, but the broker believes this base effect should aid in a stronger growth print next year.

Target price rises to $3.41 from $3.32, with earnings estimates largely unchanged. Buy retained.

This report was published on February 12, 2025.

Target price is $3.41 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.63
If DXI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 18.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.3, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $6.34

Goldman Sachs rates ((EVN)) as Neutral (3) –

Evolution Mining’s 1H25 underlying EBITDA of $1.014bn was up 77% year on year supported by stronger realised gold pricing and was 10% higher than Goldman Sachs’ forecast.

The broker upgraded FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates by 24% and 13% respectively on the result, including non-cash adjustments to P&L on streaming accounting, softer near-term D&A, and minor cost adjustments. 

Target price rises to $5.35 from $5.10. Neutral rating maintained.

This report was published on February 12, 2025.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $6.34 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of 93.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((EVN)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden highlights Evolution Mining’s strong 1H25 result beat consensus but this was primarily related to the accounting treatment for the Northparkes Triple Flag stream.

The company articulated the rise in gold prices could top up mine cash flow, and hence the broker finds it somewhat incongruous that a DRP will be reinstated, particularly if current annualised free cash flow yields are sustained.

Target price cut to $4.68 from $4.72. Underweight maintained on valuation grounds.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $4.68 Current Price is $6.34 Difference: minus $1.66 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 35.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of 93.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.8, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FFM    FIREFLY METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.03

Moelis rates ((FFM)) as Buy (1) –

Firefly Metals’ 1H25 EBITDA and net profit beat Moelis’ forecast but the variance was due to capitalisation of all exploration (the broker estimated 50% to be expensed).

The company’s cash balance remains healthy and the broker expects the business to be sufficiently funded to continue exploration efforts and simultaneously progress the first round of economic studies.

No change to the $1.5 target price and Buy rating, with the broker looking forward to the updated resource this year.

This report was published on February 16, 2025.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $0.47
If FFM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 36.79.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.60.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $32.12

Wilsons rates ((FPH)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Wilsons upgrades Fisher & Paykel Healthcare to Overweight from Market Weight, noting the new rating already reflects strong CDC data in emergency departments (ED) and the -12% fall in share price from pre-tariff highs.

The broker believes the spike in ED visits signals a “severe” flu season compared with the company’s “moderate” expectation. This could bolster a potential beat to FY25 sales and net profit guidance.

Additionally, Wilsons has not adjusted forecasts for potential tariff impost but with the tariff already in the price, the analyst believes both the potential scenarios from here are positive for the stock.

Target price retained at $35.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $32.12 Difference: $2.88
If FPH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 38.81 cents and EPS of 52.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 59.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 43.83 cents and EPS of 63.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.9, implying annual growth of 20.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.3.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNC    GRAINCORP LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $7.04

Wilsons rates ((GNC)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Wilsons notes GrainCorp’s FY25 trading update and guidance fell short of consensus forecasts, driven by lower margins. 

The company announced an intention for on-market share buy-back of up to $50m and to progress the feasibility assessment of a renewable fuels facility with MOU partners Ampol ((ALD)) and IFM investors.

The broker left FY25 earnings broadly unchanged but lowered FY26 earnings on anticipated lower volumes in agribusiness and lower margins in the nutrition and energy business.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight. Target price $8.91.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $8.91 Current Price is $7.04 Difference: $1.87
If GNC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.67, suggesting upside of 23.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.0, implying annual growth of 37.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 46.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.6, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNE    GENESIS ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $2.10

Jarden rates ((GNE)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden highlights recent announcements by Genesis and other industry participants are supportive of the long-term viability and value of Genesis’ Huntly thermal assets.

These include an announcement the four large gentailers are discussing a long-term contract for Genesis’ Rankine units.

Also, the operator of the well that Genesis has the option to use as a gas storage vessel announced that everything is on track to potentially be ready for injection by the end of this year.

Last week, Genesis announced progress towards a biofuel source to be used in its Rankines. Buy rating and NZ$3.14 target.

This report was published on February 12, 2025.

Current Price is $2.10. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.15 cents and EPS of 7.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.87.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.61 cents and EPS of 10.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.17.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GQG    GQG PARTNERS INC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.44

Goldman Sachs rates ((GQG)) as Buy (1) –

GQG Partners’ 2H24 net profit of US$230.4m beat Goldman’s forecast of US$213.8m, largely driven by higher management fees and lower expenses.

Funds under management was US$153bn in December, but Goldman notes it rose to US$160.4bn in January 2025 on recovery in net flows compared with November/December.

The broker made earnings upgrades driven by better margins, better flows, lower expenses and a slightly lower tax rate. Target price rises to $3.2 and Buy maintained.

This report was published on February 16, 2025.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.76
If GQG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 18.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.89 cents and EPS of 24.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 25.95 cents and EPS of 27.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((GQG)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden notes GQG Partners’ FY24 result was robust, driven by strong management fee margins, reduced costs and a lower tax rate.

The broker highlights strong net inflows seem to be continuing, with GQG noting the recovery in flows experienced in January has persisted into February.

The broker believes GQG’s surprise widening of its dividend payout range to 50-95% from 85-90% could also flag its appetite for an equity raise to support acquisitions and secure index inclusion. Jarden, however, retained its payout ratio estimate at 90%.

The broker raised FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates by 5.6% and 5.7% to reflect higher funds under management and higher margins, higher cost-to-income ratio and a lower effective tax rate. Target rises to $3.25 from $3.05. Buy maintained.

This report was published on February 15, 2025.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.81
If GQG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 18.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.13 cents and EPS of 25.49 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 24.42 cents and EPS of 28.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN    HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.19

Jarden rates ((HDN)) as Overweight (2) –

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT’s 1H25 result was slightly below Jarden’s forecast but with guidance maintained for 2H growth, the broker expects a better FY26. 

The broker notes the risk to its forecast for 6% EBIT growth between FY24-27 is to the upside if the REIT continues to execute on asset recycling and development initiatives.

The broker cut funds from operations forecast for FY25 by -0.2% but lifted FY26 by 1.6%. Overweight rating maintained and target price is $1.38.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $1.38 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.19
If HDN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 8.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 122.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.40 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((HDN)) as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) –

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT’s 1H25 funds from operations proved marginally short of Moelis’ estimates. The REIT reiterated FY25 guidance of 8.8c which requires a slightly stronger 2H but management attributed it to the timing difference between acquisitions and divestments.

The broker highlights the REIT’s portfolio performance has shown consistent operating metrics improvement over the last 4-5 years, reflective of the management’s strategy execution and overall portfolio curation.

Target price rises marginally to $1.36 from $1.35. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold on recent share price weakness.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.17
If HDN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 8.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 122.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLI    HELIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.98

Goldman Sachs rates ((HLI)) as Neutral (3) –

Ahead of the 2024 results on February 25, Goldman Sachs forecasts underlying cash earnings to be down -11%. The broker expects Helia Group to deliver insurance revenues of $375m, at the lower end of its guidance range.

Management indicated in its third quarter update that volumes continue to be affected by the low level of new housing loans written above an 80% Loan-to-Valuation (LVR) amid a high level of lender self-insurance.

The broker looks forward to an update on how the trends have developed over the fourth quarter. Neutral. Target rises to $4.52 from $4.29.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $4.52 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If HLI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.38.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 61.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.16.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $7.81

Goldman Sachs rates ((IAG)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs believes Insurance Australia Group is well-positioned to expand underlying margins into the second half through premium rate increases as inflation moderates.

The main feature of first half result have been identified as weak volumes, in particular the Coles exit.

While premium rate increases dropped sharply into the first half, and this may cause some concern, the broker suggests it is in line with inflation and margins remain at target, emphasising the 15% margin target is a through-the-cycle target.

Neutral retained. Target edges up to $8.15 from $8.10.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: $0.34
If IAG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 15.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.4, implying annual growth of 21.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of -3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Overweight (2) –

Insurance Australia Group delivered a beat to expectations in its first half, with Jarden noting the benefits from a benign catastrophe environment as well as expansion in the retail and NZ portfolios.

With gross written premium guidance downgraded on the back of a sharp tapering in inflation, the main issue for the broker is how the company can grow earnings in the medium term.

Near-term earnings are expected to remain well supported and there is the capacity to trade pricing for volume in the medium term so an Overweight rating is retained. Target is reduced to $8.00 from $8.40.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.81 Difference: $0.19
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.65, suggesting upside of 15.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.4, implying annual growth of 21.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 43.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of -3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMD    IMDEX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.90

Jarden rates ((IMD)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Imdex reported 1H25 underlying EBITDA of $64m which was largely in line with consensus. Jarden is forecasting 2H25 EBITDA of $68m mainly due to forex benefits, as the company flagged flat activity into 2H.

The broker reckons further benefits from cost-out or operating leverage could emerge through 2H25, should activity return earlier than current management expectations of FY26.

The broker cut FY25 and FY26 EPS by -4% and -3% respectively. Target price rises to $2.45 from $2.30.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight until the broker sees evidence of stronger activity and earnings leverage in FY26. 

This report was published on February 12, 2025.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 1.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 49.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.20 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.6, implying annual growth of 22.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPX    IPERIONX LIMITED

Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $4.13

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPX)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

IperionX was awarded a contract for up to US$47m as part of a combined investment of up to US$70m between the US government and the company.

The funding will cover feasibility studies for the Titan Critical Mineral project in Tennessee and increasing production capacity at the Titanium Manufacturing Campus in Virginia.

The funding covers 46% of Canaccord Genuity’s estimated capex for scale up to 2000tpa from 2026 at the Virginia campus. The broker sees the funding as a material de-risking for IperionX.

No change to Speculative Buy rating and $6.65 target price.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $4.13 Difference: $2.52
If IPX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 82.60.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 103.25.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $51.45

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden lowered James Hardie’s target price to $54 from $56 after factoring in delay in any US housing recovery, higher inflationary cost pressures (including potential input costs headwinds) and reduced buyback activity.

At the Q3 result on Feb 19, the broker will watch for commentary on any tariff impact on input costs, step up in Asia-Pacific margins following exit from Philippines, and capital allocation priorities.

Overweight rating maintained.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $51.45 Difference: $2.55
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $59.91, suggesting upside of 18.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 226.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 253.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 246.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 291.8, implying annual growth of 15.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JIN    JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $13.35

Jarden rates ((JIN)) as Buy (1) –

Ahead of Jumbo Interactive’s 1H result on Feb 21, Jarden expects a sombre result, as jackpots have normalised versus the above-trend year before.

The broker forecasts -9% lower lottery retailing transaction value, slightly better than the company’s -12% November trading update for the Jul-Oct period, but is still -2% below consensus.

This should be mitigated via proactive marketing expenses and slightly favourable margin mix, the broker suggests. Target price rises to $15 from $14.6. Buy maintained.

This report was published on February 12, 2025.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.35 Difference: $1.65
If JIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.40, suggesting upside of 13.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 64.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.0, implying annual growth of -4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 57.40 cents and EPS of 79.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 14.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR    MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $2.11

Jarden rates ((MGR)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes at the 1H25 result, Mirvac Group presented a compelling case for a strong recovery in earnings and returns as the rate, asset valuation, residential, and office cycle all approach a turning point.

The broker expects the group to try and work through its remaining problem projects in 2H25 to deliver strong guidance for FY26.

The broker forecasts 11% funds from operation compounded growth for FY25-28 and sees medium-term upside potential from margin recovery, which is not reflected in its valuation.

Target price rises to $2.35 from $2.15. Overweight maintained.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.24
If MGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.29, suggesting upside of 4.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 12.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.5, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $32.39

Jarden rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

Mineral Resources’ joint venture partner at Wodgina, Albemarle Corp, released an independent technical report evaluating the asset, valuing it as $2.6bn, using a long-term SC6 price of US$1,300/t and AUD/USD of $0.68.

The valuation is -30% lower than Jarden’s prior value of $3.9bn derived using US$1,200/t SC6 price and an exchange rate of $0.70.

The broker has revalued Wodgina taking some inputs from the report, including new unit cost estimates and higher mining and processing costs.

The valuation falls by around -32% to $2.66bn, with Mineral Resources 50% share at $1.33bn. Target price drops to $20.00 from $22.80. Sell retained.

This report was published on February 16, 2025.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $32.39 Difference: minus $12.39 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $41.51, suggesting upside of 29.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 139.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -95.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 154.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $18.56

Goldman Sachs rates ((NST)) as Buy (1) –

Northern Star Resources posted first half earnings that were in line with Goldman Sachs’ estimates, rising 58% on the back of higher realised gold prices. The interim dividend of $0.25 was also in line.

The broker envisages a payout supporting a 3-4% distribution yield over FY25-26. Guidance is unchanged.

Goldman Sachs retains a Buy rating, noting free cash flow is set to grow and support yields of 5-10% that appear increasingly attractive vis-a-vis peers. Buy rating. Target is $19.40, edging down from $19.80.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $18.56 Difference: $0.84
If NST meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.77, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 59.80 cents and EPS of 118.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.8, implying annual growth of 88.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 74.30 cents and EPS of 193.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.5, implying annual growth of 38.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((NST)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden found the interim results from Northern Star Resources robust and in line with expectations. FY25 guidance has been reiterated although the broker points out, as is typical, a very strong June quarter will be required.

The main upside risk is sustained strength in gold prices while the key downside risks include escalation in capital expenditure and operating underperformance. On balance, a Neutral rating is maintained with a $15.40 target.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $18.56 Difference: minus $3.16 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.77, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 106.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.8, implying annual growth of 88.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 94.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.5, implying annual growth of 38.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $2.22

Jarden rates ((ORA)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Jarden misinterpreted Orora’s guidance at the 1H25 result alluding to a “mid-30’s” EBIT ambition longer term for its glass manufacturing segment, as representing a half-year EBIT contribution. This meant the broker essentially doubled the stated ambition in its forward forecasts

The broker has now unwound this overestimate over FY26-27, resulting in a downgrade to its recently revised core EPS forecasts.

Target price cut to $2.4 from $2.6, and rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.18
If ORA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 11.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of -19.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.90 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of 20.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $10.32

Goldman Sachs rates ((ORG)) as Neutral (3) –

Origin Energy’s 1H25 EBITDA was -7% below Goldman Sachs’ forecast and net profit was -6% lower, primarily impacted by lower Octopus earnings. 

On the positive side, the company declared an interim dividend of 30c which was 7% above the broker’s estimate.

Origin maintained energy markets’ FY25 EBITDA guidance of $1.1-1.4bn but with confidence for delivering towards the top end of the range. 

Octopus’ guidance was reduced by -$100m as the business invests in energy services business, installing heat pumps in the UK.

The broker revised FY25-26 EBITDA forecasts by -2% each, adjusting for lower near-term Octopus earnings. Target price rises to $10.3 from $10.2 reflecting higher near-term energy markets’ earnings. Neutral retained. 

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $10.32 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.3, implying annual growth of 8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.4, implying annual growth of -22.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Further to the first half results from Origin Energy, which were in line with Jarden’s estimates, the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight.

The broker was surprised by the unchanged guidance for emerging markets EBITDA despite the positive first half performance and does factor in higher earnings through the forecast period.

The target is reduced to $10.25 from $10.45, largely related to APLNG, where Jarden still awaits answers on the near-term production outlook and whether reserves are impacted.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $10.32 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 82.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.3, implying annual growth of 8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 69.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.4, implying annual growth of -22.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $283.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((PME)) as Buy (1) –

First half results from Pro Medicus were marginally lower than Goldman Sachs anticipated.

There were unprecedented contract conversions over the last two months with the broker noting a number of net opportunities and the company signalling share gains within the private/outpatient radiology segment.

The broker makes slight changes to estimates with the target edging down to $309 from $310. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $309.00 Current Price is $283.53 Difference: $25.47
If PME meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $242.25, suggesting downside of -14.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 260.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.5, implying annual growth of 43.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 248.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 150.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 189.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.2, implying annual growth of 48.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 167.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((PME)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Pro Medicus’ 1H25 topline revenue of $97M missed Wilsons’ estimate by -7% but the broker admits it was a case of its forecast being too high. Overall, directionally the result met the broker’s expectations.

The broker lowered FY25 revenue estimates on account of the 1H miss while leaving 2H forecasts unchanged. FY26 forecast was lifted by 1.2% owing mainly to new contracts.

Target price rises to $297 from $275 but rating lowered to Market Weight from Overweight.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $297.00 Current Price is $283.53 Difference: $13.47
If PME meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $242.25, suggesting downside of -14.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 53.70 cents and EPS of 107.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 263.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.5, implying annual growth of 43.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 248.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 67.80 cents and EPS of 137.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 206.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.2, implying annual growth of 48.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 167.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC    RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.29

Jarden rates ((RWC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden expects resilient earnings at Reliance Worldwide over the next six-to-twelve months, supported by non-discretionary repairs, while awaiting a housing-led recovery.

The broker notes signs of pent-up demand, but higher US mortgage rates and uncertainty around Australian rate cuts are still restraining buyer activity and large-ticket purchases or renovations.

Jarden retains a Neutral rating and raises the target price to $5.70 from $5.65.

This report was published on February 12, 2025.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.29 Difference: $0.41
If RWC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.80, suggesting upside of 8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.72 cents and EPS of 27.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.09 cents and EPS of 32.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.1, implying annual growth of 17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $3.65

Goldman Sachs rates ((S32)) as Buy (1) –

South32’s first half results were in line with estimates. Goldman Sachs found the update positive in terms of operations and costs. The interim dividend of US3.4c continues and the on-market share buyback are ongoing. FY25 guidance is largely unchanged.

A key positive was the update on costs at Worsley alumina with guidance below the broker’s estimates. The Australian manganese jetty rebuild and recovery in production appear on track.

The company has started a divestment process for Cerro Matoso nickel, with the broker commenting this is indicating its focus is on growing base metals exposure in the Americas. Buy rating. Target is unchanged at $4.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.35
If S32 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 13.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.58 cents and EPS of 33.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 24.27 cents and EPS of 47.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.0, implying annual growth of 27.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGH    SGH LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $54.58

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGH)) as Buy (1) –

SGH Ltd delivered underlying EBIT and net profit in the first half that was ahead of estimates.

Goldman Sachs lifts FY25 forecasts for EBIT to account for the better-than-expected margin result for Boral that is partially offset by lower Coates earnings.

FY26 estimates are broadly unchanged, while in FY27 the broker expects increased earnings from WesTrac because of fleet renewal.  Target is raised to $59.30 from $45.90 and reflects updated peer group multiples. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $59.30 Current Price is $54.58 Difference: $4.72
If SGH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $56.94, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 239.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.3, implying annual growth of 88.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 275.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 270.1, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPZ    SMART PARKING LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.97

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SPZ)) as Buy (1) –

Ahead of 1H25 result on Feb 17, Canaccord Genuity expects Smart Parking to report sustained momentum in revenue in the 2Q, forecasting 1H total revenue of $33m. 

The broker forecasts 1H adjusted. EBITDA of $10m, representing an EBITDA margin of 31% vs 28% in the same period last year. 

In November, the company upgraded its guidance to 3,000 sites under management by Dec 2028 after achieving its previous target of 1,500 by Dec 2024 (1,529 sites in Nov).

The new target implies revenue increasing to $120m by FY28, with EBITDA growing to over $40m at 32% margin. Buy rating and $1.1 target maintained.

This report was published on February 12, 2025.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.13
If SPZ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.42.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $19.96

Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Overweight (2) –

Suncorp Group’s 1H25 cash net profit of $860m proved 3.8% above Jarden’s estimate, driven primarily by stronger general insurance earnings. 

Coupled with headroom in the FY25 Catastrophe (CAT) budget following a significant 1H25 CAT beat, the broker has increasing conviction in the outlook for FY25.

The broker lifts EPS estimates on greater balancing sheet flexibility and a more accommodative reinsurance market boding well for renewals later this year.

FY25 and FY25 EPS forecasts raised by 3.7% and 2.2%, respectively. Overweight rating maintained and $20.85 target price.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $20.85 Current Price is $19.96 Difference: $0.89
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.55, suggesting upside of 2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 116.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.2, implying annual growth of 19.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 84.00 cents and EPS of 117.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.8, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $18.04

Jarden rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Temple & Webster delivered a beat in first half net profit and Jarden found a lot to like in other areas of the results.

Exclusive product and private-label were up to 45% of sales and repeat orders increased by 1.8% to 58%, the latter being a likely significant contributor to growth as the business increases its focus on building brand awareness, the broker highlights.

Jarden upgrades EBITDA forecast by 19% for FY25 and by 3% for FY26 and reiterates its Buy rating, while lifting its target to $18.65 from $14.01.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $18.65 Current Price is $18.04 Difference: $0.61
If TPW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.68, suggesting downside of -7.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 220.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 533.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 188.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 115.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 84.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 102.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $10.83

Goldman Sachs rates ((TWE)) as Buy (1) –

Treasury Wine Estates delivered record sales for Penfolds of $551m in the first half, underpinned by its re-entry to the China market.

After the first half results Goldman Sachs changes estimates for FY25-27 slightly, to reflect moderately stronger Penfolds and Americas business offset by slightly weaker premium brands.

If the company can demonstrate to the market its Penfolds channel sell-through and sustained growth in the US luxury portfolio, the broker expects the stock to re-rate positively. Buy rating retained. Target is $12.90.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $10.83 Difference: $2.07
If TWE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting upside of 19.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.1, implying annual growth of 373.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 19.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((TWE)) as Buy (1) –

Treasury Wine Estates delivered a strong first half, ahead of expectations. Jarden found a lot to like regarding future earnings drivers, particularly demand at Penfolds which is outstripping supply.

Daou also delivered 11% growth and synergy targets have been lifted amid expectations of more than US$105m in EBIT in FY26.

The broker still considers the stock undervalued, yet negative EPS revisions reflects lower multiples from the Americas/premium brands business, which are driving sentiment. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $13.90 from $14.70.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $10.83 Difference: $3.07
If TWE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.18, suggesting upside of 19.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 59.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.1, implying annual growth of 373.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 70.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.5, implying annual growth of 19.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEB TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $5.09

Wilsons rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons’ compares Web Travel Group to its closest peer HBX Group which fell -4% from its IPO price on listing. 

On the broker’s numbers, the IPO price implies a FY25 EBITDA multiple of 8.5x, a substantial discount to Web Travel at 13.9x, but much closer to Expedia at 9.2x.

The broker notes at the headline level, HBX’s pricing does not appear to be a positive read-through for Web Travel, but it doesn’t believe an immediate de-rating is required.

The analyst points to several factors that may have contributed to the IPO pricing, including the absence of growth investment and lower medium-term total transaction value growth targets vs Web Travel.

Overweight rating maintained and target price is $5.77.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $5.77 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.68
If WEB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.3, implying annual growth of 37.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.53

Petra Capital rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) –

Westgold Resources’ 1H25 financial report had significant changes, including a net asset base of $1.9bn vs $692m in June following the merger with Karora Resources in August. 

Revenue rose 72% year on year, driven by a 29% increase in gold production to 158koz and a 30% higher gold price.

With rising gold prices, Petra Capital notes the focus is on the unhedged company leveraging its significant production base and delivering on a guided annual run rate of over 400koz in Q425.

Buy retained but target price lowered to $3.25 from $3.32, due mainly to increased forecast FY25 expenses.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.53 Difference: $0.72
If WGX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.80.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 37.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.75.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WTC    WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $124.07

Goldman Sachs rates ((WTC)) as Buy (1) –

The upcoming 1H25 result on February 26 will be WiseTech’s first result reported in USD. Goldman Sachs expects a strong set of 1H25 results driven by Cargowise revenue growth and efficient cost management.

The broker forecasts revenue to rise 17% to US$382m vs consensus of US$373m. The analyst expects the lowered guidance for FY25 to be reiterated but will focus on updated commentary on 2H revenue bias and progress on the productivity program.

Buy rating maintained and target price is $142.

This report was published on February 14, 2025.

Target price is $142.00 Current Price is $124.07 Difference: $17.93
If WTC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.89 cents and EPS of 111.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 111.36.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 152.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 81.29.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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