Daily Market Reports | Jan 28 2025
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
3PL A11 AEL (2) ALD ALL BPT CEN CRN CXO DYL EVN FCL FMG (2) GMD IFL IGO INA INR IPH KYP LIC LLL LTR MND MPL NAN NHF NWL (2) NXS PDN PMV PPS (2) QBE RDY REG RRL (2) STK STO (2) TCG TLC TWE WAF WDS WES WGX
3PL 3P LEARNING LIMITED
Education & Tuition - Overnight Price: $0.76
Taylor Collison rates ((3PL)) as Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy (3) -
Taylor Collison notes elevated Mathletics churn and muted B2C growth extrapolated from third-party web traffic and app download data foreshadowed 3P Learning's FY24 guidance miss. Based on this, the broker anticipates another underwhelming result for 1H25.
Lack of liquidity also exacerbates share price volatility where results have the potential to underperform, the broker observes.
The broker remains optimistic due to a longer-term growth strategy bolstered by experienced management and the expected return of B2C consumers. But in the short-term rating is downgraded to Hold until management provides validation that the goal of 10% revenue growth is achievable, sustainable, and profitable.
No target price is mentioned.
This report was published on January 23, 2025.
Current Price is $0.76. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.67.
Forecast for FY25:
Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.21.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
A11 ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED.
New Battery Elements - Overnight Price: $0.24
Wilsons rates ((A11)) as Overweight (1) -
In a report looking into 2025, Wilsons reviews seven key talking points for the lithium market covering demand, supply, inventories, geopolitical noise, M&A and how geography could be a key differentiator for new projects moving forward.
Despite being in the midst of an over-supplied market for lithium, the broker believes market rebalancing is underway but the pace will be relatively sedate.
The broker acknowledges its lithium price profile was too optimistic previously, lowering it to a broadly flat forecast versus spot price over the next three years -- US$850/t SC6 and US$11,000/t carbonate, before progressively moving up. The new price profile sits slightly below consensus estimates for the coming years.
Wilsons notes Atlantic Lithium remains somewhat insulated from near-term price weakness since production is expected to kick off in FY27 but flags a material drop in earnings estimates over Ewoyaas early production years given the updated lithium prices.
The broker has revised its funding assumptions, now incorporating US$100m of JV-level debt and replacing offtake financing with Equity financing at the company level, which added a dilutionary impact to discounted cash flow valuation.
Target falls to 55c from 85c, Overweight retained.
This report was published on January 23, 2025.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.305
If A11 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 124% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 40.83.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 49.00.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AEL AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED
Crude Oil - Overnight Price: $0.20
Canaccord Genuity rates ((AEL)) as Buy (1) -
Amplitude Energy's group production of 72.5TJe/day in the December quarter was only marginally lower than the September quarter but 8% higher vs the same period the year before, notes Canaccord Genuity.
Production remained above the guidance range of 6572 TJe/day and despite scheduled maintenance in the 2H, the broker saw scope for a small upgrade.
Production forecast raised to 3% to 71TJe/day and FY25 EBITDA estimate increased to $161m from $146m.
No change to Buy rating but target price increases to 33c from 31c.
This report was published on January 23, 2025.
Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.135
If AEL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 31.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.25.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 271.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((AEL)) as Overweight (2) -
Amplitude Energy's December quarter production of 1.12 mmboe was lower versus September quarter but higher than Jarden's 1.02 mmboe estimate, contributing to higher revenue of $67.9m versus Jarden's $62.3m forecast.
Net debt reduced to $254.2m end-December, ahead of Jarden's $264m estimate.
Amplitude announced drilling intentions at the Otway project in FY25 which the broker believes is a sign of near-term resolution of Mitsui's interest in the joint venture. Jarden notes the entry of a new JV partner would be a clear positive for the company.
The broker made small lifts to FY25 estimates on the back of revenue beat.
No change to Overweight rating and 25c target price.
This report was published on January 24, 2025.
Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.055
If AEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 31.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.19.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 271.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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