Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 24-01-20

This story features CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CLW

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday January 20 to Friday January 24, 2020
Total Upgrades: 18
Total Downgrades: 19
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 37.62%; Hold 45.87%; Sell 16.50%

These are busy days for stockbroking analysts. Not only are fewer of them around (thanks to industry changes and the EU), Australian equities have been on a tear since the start of the year, despite corporate profit warnings accumulating. And then there is the February reporting season, soon to be with us in full force.

For the week ending Friday, 24th January 2020, FNArena registered no less than 18 upgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed entities against 19 downgrades. Ten of the 18 lifted to a Buy, while only six downgrades moved to Sell.

Property owners and infrastructure funds were prominently represented among the 18 upgrades. Dexus Property Group alone received three upgrades during the week and all went to Buy. Other stocks receiving a fresh Buy recommendation include Woolworths, QBE Insurance and Cimic Group.

Oddly enough, the week's table for downgrades in recommendations equally contains yield payers including Stockland, Transurban, Sydney Airport and Scentre Group. Junior gold producers are equally represented through multiple downgrades.

Tables for positive and negative adjustments to valuations and price targets are showing plenty of action, and a continuation of the story told by changes in recommendations. On top of the week's table for positive revisions for price targets sits Shopping Centres Australasia, followed by Fortescue Metals, Charter Hall Retail, Charter Hall Long WALE , Mirvac Group and Megaport.

On the negative side we find the largest reductions befell nib Holdings (profit warning), followed by Downer EDI (profit warning), Cimic Group (profit warning), Whitehaven Coal (disappointing quarterly) and Nufarm (yet again a profit warning).

The trend in earnings forecasts, one week before the February reporting season starts, is heavily skewed to negative revisions, also because of the aforementioned profit warnings. On the positive side we find Metcash, Origin Energy, Senex Energy and Megaport enjoying positive momentum. On the flipside, reduced expectations dominate for Nufarm, South32, Downer EDI, Galaxy Resources, St Barbara and nib Holdings.

The corporate calendar in Australia continues with miners and energy producers releasing quarterly production updates, including Oil Search and Fortescue Metals, while Credit Corp unofficially kicks off the February reporting season today, followed by IGO on Thursday and GUD Holdings and ResMed on Friday. All the while China is celebrating New Year and trying to contain the spreading coronavirus.

Upgrade

CIMIC GROUP LIMITED ((CIM)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/2/0

The company will exit its 45% stake in BIC Contracting that operates in the Middle East. Weakening market conditions in the region were cited as well as a desire to focus on opportunities in the main geographies of Australasia and Asia-Pacific.

Cost of the exit is higher than Credit Suisse expected, with a P&L post-tax impact of around -$1.8bn in 2019 and a cash impact of -$700m in 2020. The final dividend for 2019 has been cancelled.

The decision to exit removes an overhang from a known issue and Credit Suisse believes the extent of the sell off in the shares provides a buying opportunity. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $35 from $36.

CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform, to reflect a new valuation methodology. The broker assesses the portfolio is backed by long-term sustainable cash flow that is attractive for those investors seeking income return.

Underlying growth is supported by fixed and CPI-linked annual reviews. Target is raised to $5.88 from $4.74.

CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT ((CQE)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Ord Minnett upgrades Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT to Accumulate from Hold in view of the longer weighted average lease expiry and considers the stock oversold. Target is $3.65.

The sector is trading broadly in line with valuation, yet appears attractive relative to the domestic market on a range of metrics, in the broker's view. The broker expects A-REITs will remain net buyers and fund acquisitions with a combination of debt and equity.

CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/2

Macquarie reviews the outlook for convenience landlords and upgrades to Outperform from Underperform. The broker remains attracted to the defensive nature of the cash flow.

Direct market transactions limit the downside risk to net tangible assets and the stock offers a 6.4% distribution yield, which is cash backed. Target is raised 33% to $5.20.

DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP ((DXS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform by Macquarie and Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Macquarie finds the earnings trajectory solid, with underlying growth in the office portfolio supplemented by trading profits. The buyback is also supporting the share price.

The broker notes the outlook for office market rents is moderating but the earnings profile of Dexus Property remains sound. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Underperform. Target is raised 6.3% to $13.26.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Accumulate from Hold on the basis of further office capitalisation rate compression.

The sector is trading broadly in line with valuation, yet appears attractive relative to the domestic market on a range of metrics, in the broker's view.

The broker expects A-REITs will remain net buyers and fund acquisitions with a combination of debt and equity. Target is $13.50.

UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral. After a prolonged period of above-trend rental growth in Sydney and Melbourne office markets, the broker anticipates a moderation in 2020/21, with net effective rental growth of 1-3% per annum.

Importantly, the broker envisages ongoing capitalisation rate compression, strong cash flow from annual escalations and positive leasing spreads. Target is raised to $13.60 from $12.90.

FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LTD ((FMG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/3/3

The commodity price outlook is far more accommodative and Credit Suisse lifts the target to $11.00 from $7.50. Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.

This reflects not just material changes in estimates for earnings per share but also the strength of Fortescue Metals' balance sheet and a buoyant outlook for dividends.

Credit Suisse expects China's steel demand will remain firm in the first half but decline from the second half as property construction may ease.

However, given the strong rhetoric around infrastructure a 1.6% increase in Chinese steel demand is assumed for 2020, well above previous forecasts.

HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/1

Funds under administration in the December quarter were up 10%. Net inflows were 2% higher. The obvious headwinds, Morgans suggests, are pricing pressure and earnings on cash transaction account balances.

The broker is cautious about the impact on sentiment and earnings from any change to pooled client cash. Taking a longer-term view, Morgans expects the company will scale up successfully and deliver solid earnings growth.

Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target reduced to $13.35 from $13.79.

INFIGEN ENERGY ((IFN)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Infigen Energy's output from the wind farms connected to the National Electricity Market was 22% higher in the first half. The major driver was a full half output from the Bodangora farm.

Futures point to a softer spot market in the second half, which Morgans suspects will be positive for Infigen Energy.

Morgans upgrades earnings forecasts for FY20, envisaging less volatility in the spot market that will take the pressure off spot purchases.

The broker believes an increasing focus on carbon emissions could mean that the stock is useful as a hedge against potentially increasing carbon prices.

Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target raised to $0.76 from $0.64.

MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS and Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0

UBS upgrades to Neutral from Sell after incorporating recently-acquired projects. Mirvac is the preferred A-REIT for a residential recovery, having underperform Stockland ((SGP)) by -18% since the 2019 election, and given the preference for office over retail.

If Mirvac can execute on its strategy and introduce third-party capital to the BTR projects, the broker assesses it should be able to reach its medium-term target of 5000 units by FY24. Target is raised to $3.30 from $3.00.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten because of the value-accretive development pipeline, and raises the target to $3.20 from $2.95.

The sector is trading broadly in line with valuation, yet appears attractive relative to the domestic market on a range of metrics, in the broker's view.

The broker expects A-REITs will remain net buyers and fund acquisitions with a combination of debt and equity.

METCASH LIMITED ((MTS)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform, as the share price has fallen to the target of $2.65. The broker assesses the stock screens cheap on a discounted cash flow measure.

However, Macquarie remains concerned over the prospect of further customer losses and the associated operating de-leverage.

NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi and Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 0/5/2

Citi factors in small positive gains, allowing for the full impact of the reserve top up the company has to make to the claims provision. The broker assesses some value has crept into the stock and upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target is steady at $6.85.

While nib is gaining traction from its Qantas ((QAN)) Assure initiative, weak industry dynamics continue to weigh. Industry policyholder numbers are stagnant and affordability constraints remain elevated.

Citi anticipates earnings per share will contract -8% in FY20 and maintains only a low single-digit growth forecast for FY21-22.

The company has lowered its guidance for FY20 underlying profit by -15%, to more than $170m from more than $200m. A component of the downgrade relates to higher costs but most of the pressure has been blamed on higher claims inflation.

UBS downgrades estimates for FY20 by -16% and FY21 by -10%. The stock is now trading on a more sustainable footing and the broker upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target is reduced to $5.85 from $6.50.

QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED ((QBE)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Citi has upgraded to Buy from Neutral as the insurer updated with worse than expected impact from crop insurance, but with otherwise in-line underlying performance. Citi thinks the market will look through this short term impact, and so do Citi analysts, clearly.

Forecasts have been sliced due to the crop insurance impact, and the analysts point out QBE Insurance remains a business containing many moving parts. Citi retains a positive outlook medium term. Price target shifts to $15.20 from $13.45.

SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP ((SCP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Amid a sector wide review, Macquarie upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is $2.91.

While the broker prefers the convenience-based landlords over regional landlords, given defensive cash flows, the stock is already trading on a 5.4% distribution yield and 25% premium to net tangible assets so the broker finds it is difficult to become more positive.

WOOLWORTHS LIMITED ((WOW)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral, envisaging upside to earnings from strong same-store sales growth. The broker likes the dominant store footprint and potential efficiency gains.

Moreover, Woolworths is well-positioned to undertake capital management once the Endeavour assets are distributed. Target is raised to $42.40 from $37.00.

Downgrade

AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/0/6

UBS notes AGL Energy is heavily exposed to changes in average wholesale electricity prices. All else being equal, the broker calculates a -$5/megawatt-hour annual reduction in average prices across all National Electricity Markets equates to a -$190m reduction in annual earnings (EBIT).

Lower electricity price forecasts mean the broker's FY20-22 estimates for earnings per share are reduced by -5-7% from prior estimates.

While the share price has risen 7% over the last three months, and will be supported as the remainder of the buyback is completed, earnings headwinds remain, the stockbroker finds.

As a result, UBS downgrades to Sell from Neutral, reducing the target to $18.35 from $18.85.

AP EAGERS LIMITED ((APE)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/0

New car sales are under pressure and Morgans downgrades 2019-21 forecast by -1-2.4%. In the short term the broker is also wary of the wide divergence in consensus forecasts.

The stock provides strong leverage to a recovery in vehicle sales but the potential for further downgrades is a risk the broker would prefer to avoid until there is further clarity.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add. Target is reduced to $11.96 from $12.02.

ALACER GOLD CORP ((AQG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/1/0

December quarter production delivered on 2019 guidance. Credit Suisse was pleased with the commissioning of sulphide production although this was at the lower end of guidance.

The 2020 guidance, for 310-360,000 ounces, at the high end is below the broker's current 2020 sulphide forecast.

Nevertheless, Credit Suisse is not concerned about its current modelling of 2020 production as there is potential upside from oxide.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on valuation. Target is unchanged at $7.20.

DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 0/4/2

Citi analysts believe Domino's Pizza's High PE multiple is directly linked to the prospect for more store openings and growth in Europe, but thus far in FY20, they note, store growth has been soft.

The analysts observe their forecasts are -3-4% below consensus at the moment. As equities are on a tear, including for the company's peers, they have added 5% to their price target, to $48.60.

However, given the prospect for disappointment, directly related to store rollouts, Citi has decided to downgrade to Sell from Neutral.

DOWNER EDI LIMITED ((DOW)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/1/1

The company has reduced FY20 net profit guidance to $300m from $365m, representing a -18% reduction. The downgrade stems from the issues being faced by the ECM and mining businesses.

A small number of loss-making ECM construction contracts and lower forecast revenue as well as a delay in two mining projects contributed.

As management has historically taken pride in meeting guidance, Credit Suisse suspects the downgrade to profit is likely to be taken poorly by investors and it may take a while for confidence to recover.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral and the target lowered to $7 from $8.

FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED ((FLT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Credit Suisse observes recent travel data have been weak, consumer sentiment is poor and there is a strong second half skew to guidance.

At this point, the broker queries the assumptions about a recovery that are implied in FY20 guidance and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform, lowering the target to $44.83 from $47.49.

NUFARM LIMITED ((NUF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/0

The company expects first half operating earnings between $55-65m. Macquarie expects regulatory approval for the Latin American sale will occur in February and notes this is key to fixing the balance sheet.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, given limited returns and the potential for ongoing challenging conditions in the second half stemming from competitive markets and constrained raw material supply. Target is reduced to $5.77 from $5.83.

ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Fundamentals for the company's energy markets have become weaker. Given that around 50% of operating earnings are derived from energy markets Morgans believes this will be a drag on the performance.

The APLNG business is likely to continue performing well but the broker assesses the opportunities to grow earnings are limited. Future performance of APLNG will increasingly be a function of commodity prices, the broker adds.

Morgans believes investors that are looking for exposure to oil price would do better by focusing on stocks with a pure concentration in energy exports. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add and the target is lowered to $8.43 from $8.62.

PEET & COMPANY LIMITED ((PPC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Macquarie is concerned about the risks associated with FY20 earnings per share, forecasting this to drop -36%. The forecast assumes significant sales in the first half are settled in the second half.

While residential markets are improving the broker envisages downside risk. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is steady at $1.25.

QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Following a strong run up in the share price, Citi downgrades Qantas to Neutral from Buy. Target is raised to $7.45 from $6.90.

Pre-tax profit forecasts for FY20 are reduced by -1%, consistent with the company's guidance about the impact of industrial action at Jetstar.

Citi believes the current share price adequately reflects a rational Australian domestic market, capital distributions and upside from Project Sunrise.

REECE AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((REH)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Following recent share price strength, amid expectations of a cyclical upswing, Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add.

Estimates for earnings per share in FY20 are reduced by -7%, to reflect lower local demand and revised appreciation assumptions. Target is raised to $12.45 from $11.47.

RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Ord Minnett downgrades to Accumulate from Buy. Quarterly production was generally in line with forecasts. The broker notes the attractive metrics in the stock but a strong run up in the share price has led to the downgrade.

The main disappointment was a decline in copper grades at Kennecott and lower copper guidance for 2020 with weak grades persisting before  recovering in early 2021.

The main positive surprise was bauxite, which was 9% ahead of forecasts. Target is steady at $112.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/3/1

Production was solid in the December quarter and beat Macquarie's forecasts. Timing on the decision for the development of McPhillamys looks to have been delayed and the broker reduces valuation for the project.

While positive on the outlook for Duketon, this does not breach the valuation gap to McPhillamys and Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced -7% to $4.20.

RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED ((RSG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/0

The company will raise up to $146m from institutions and $25m from its largest shareholder, with up to $25m in the share purchase plan at a -6.4% discount to the last closing price. Funds will be used to retire the US$130m bridging loan.

Macquarie acknowledges this will provide some relief to the balance sheet but the near-term performance of Syama will determine further de-leveraging capacity over 2020.

The dilution drives a reduction in the target to $1.20 from $1.40 and a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/0/4

UBS downgrades to Sell from Neutral, noting occupancy, income and valuations remain under pressure. Store closures and retailers entering administration over the past month have been abnormally high and, the broker assesses, could impact up to 84 tenancies across the company's portfolio.

With income uncertainty increasing at a time when there is a large number of retail assets on the market, UBS expects valuations will be under pressure. Target is reduced to $3.70 from $3.90. The broker also updates earnings estimates to reflect the Booragoon acquisition.

STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/3

Ord Minnett downgrades Stockland to Lighten from Hold following a period of flat earnings growth and the recent surge in the share price. Target is raised to $4.30 from $4.20.

The sector is trading broadly in line with valuation, yet appears attractive relative to the domestic market on a range of metrics, in the broker's view. The broker expects A-REITs will remain net buyers and fund acquisitions with a combination of debt and equity.

SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/3

On the bank-insurer's own acknowledgment, natural hazard costs including bushfires have risen some -$109m above 1H allowances. In isolation this reduces Citi's forecast for 1H20 by -14%, point out the analysts.

A repeat for H2 seems unlikely because of aggregate and stop loss reinsurance protections. Citi explains this means the opposite is likely to occur in H2, leaving no net impact on FY20 numbers.

Citi analysts have made only minimal adjustments to their forecasts. There is one looming negative, however, and that will be the next round of negotiations with the reinsurers. Citi pulls back its rating to Neutral from Buy. Price target falls to $14.30 from $14.50.

SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED ((SYD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/4/1

International traffic declined -0.4% in December while domestic rose 1.3%. Macquarie notes the outlook for international capacity growth in 2020 has shifted to a contraction of -0.5-1.5%.

The broker now considers the valuation is challenged and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

Macquarie reduces operating earnings (EBITDA) estimates by -1.7% for 2020 and 2021, reflecting lower international passenger expectations. Target is reduced to $8.68 from $8.77.

TRANSURBAN GROUP ((TCL)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/2

The company is moving to become a tax-paying entity over the next two years although Ord Minnett does not consider this a major headwind for earnings.

The broker estimates the annual tax impost will normalise quickly in FY22 and peak at 10% of free cash flow. The broker downgrades to Accumulate from Buy based on valuation. Target is raised to $16.50 from $16.00.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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