Rudi’s View: Best Buys & Conviction Calls On ASX

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By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Earlier this week, I posted a message that received quite a number of ‘likes’ on X (formerly Twitter). It read:

There’s no two ways about it, if you are still invested in today’s markets, you are counting on two key things:

1. sanity and common sense will prevail, eventually
2. nothing fundamentally breaks in the meantime

There are no guarantees whatsoever both will stand tall as every day passes by.

By Thursday morning Australian time it would appear both factors have grabbed the upper hand and share markets have responded with a fierce relief rally.

I don’t think anyone should get too excited just yet. This is a longer-dated process and even with relief on tariffs (for how long it may last) at some point the focus will shift to the economic damage done, and that’s anyone’s guess at this point in time.

Two rumours that should have everyone’s attention are:

-Apparently the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, had a hissy-fit about what was happening in financial markets and that proved the swing factor inside a heavily divided US administration.

Hedge fund manager Bessent is highly regarded by his peers on Wall Street and –in rough terms– seen as the adult in the room when it comes to financial markets.

Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick does not carry the same level of gravitas. Prior to Bessent’s line in the sand, he seemed to have been sidestepped in favour of nutty professor Peter Navarro, who now, presumably, is licking his wounds.

-Apparently there was a ‘secret’ chat room that required US$1m for access prior to the tariff relief announcement. The US President also signalled on Truth Social it is a great time to start buying prior to the announcement. Make of both what you like, but the optics, at the very least, are not great.

As reported on Monday, I will be spending the coming two weeks in Belgium and the Netherlands. With a heavy heart, given circumstances, but this trip was planned long time ago and how could I ever anticipate the current circumstances?

Whether you are fully invested, half in cash, 100% on the sidelines, looking to make portfolio changes or preparing to start buying shares again –and all variations in between– below is an overview of the latest changes and updates on analysts’ Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions.

I hope you can use it to your own benefit. The All-Weather Model Portfolio has literally made no changes over the past week, and I don’t think we’ll make any soon either. Then again, we already are invested in Defensives and High Quality companies.

Good luck to you all. Hopefully it’ll be relatively easier to stay composed, healthy and sane from here onwards (but there are absolutely no guarantees).

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My recent writings (for those who missed them or like a re-read):

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/09/rudis-view-share-market-scenarios-dilemmas/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/03/rudis-view-you-can-not-be-serious/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/02/rudis-view-time-for-appreciating-quality/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/26/rudis-view-captive-uncomfortable/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/19/rudis-view-navigating-the-trump-slump/

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A special report by the Global Investment Committee at Morgan Stanley this week concluded with the following:

“[…] the moral of the story for us right now is these are the exact type of times that the best thing you can do is sit on your hands, right, watch and wait a little bit.

“And I think we’re in one of those chapters in the market where the best advice is to sit tight, to stay close to your Advisor and really stay anchored to your asset allocation, which is hopefully anchored to your long-term financial plan.”

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Morgan Stanley‘s latest update on the broker’s Asia Pacific ex Japan Focus List (essentially a selection of High Conviction Buy ratings) includes a number of ASX-listed names:

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

The selection consists of 20 companies in the region, including the likes of Kweichow Moutai in China (freshly added), ICIC Bank in India, Samsung and the Singapore Exchange.

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Analysts at Wilsons have not changed anything in terms of ratings, forecasts or valuations for ASX-listed Technology stocks, although they do acknowledge the US administration is making things fluid and more uncertain.

Wilsons has nominated TechnologyOne ((TNE)) as the most favourite stock to own within the 2025 context.

Also noteworthy: only one ASX-listed Tech stock is not rated Overweight. Xero ((XRO)) only attracts a Marketweight (i.e. Neutral/Hold) rating.

Wilsons’ Focus Portfolio has responded to April turbulence by adding Woolworths Group ((WOW)) shares and topping up on Brambles ((BXB)) and Evolution Mining ((EVN)). Two exposures have been divested: Breville Group ((BRG)) and Web Travel Group ((WEB)).

In general terms, Wilsons’ motto is Quality Is King, and that principle is used for the Focus Portfolio with an eye on balance sheets, durable competitive advantages, secular growth tailwinds, pricing power, and attractive returns on invested capital.

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Tech and Telecom analysts at Citi have expressed their preference for larger cap companies given the high level of uncertainty in 2025. Larger companies have stronger market positions. That’s the long and the short of the reasoning.

While the likes of WiseTech Global ((WTC)), Car Group ((CAR)), Xero and REA Group ((REA)) are by no means immune and they too have their challenges, Citi continues to foresee a strong growth trajectory ahead.

The analysts are equally quite sanguine about the immediate outlooks for platform operators Hub24 ((HUB)) and Netwealth Group ((NWL)), with both share prices selling off sharply prior to today’s share market rally (Thursday).

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Market strategists at Bell Potter continue to advocate investors seek refuge by snapping up (or holding onto) Quality Growth companies whose share prices have been de-rated to more attractive valuations/multiples.

In the midst of selling orders battering the local share market, Bell Potter highlighted the following four in particular:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-REA Group
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))

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Jarden’s monthly update on Emerging Companies (i.e. smaller caps) showcases 17 stock picks in Australia. The following seven have been highlighted as representing the potential highest return, ranked in order of total shareholder return:

-Qualitas ((QAL))
-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))

The other ten:

-Arena REIT ((ARF))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Michael Hill ((MHJ))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Superloop ((SLC))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))

Two changes have taken place since the update in March; Arena REIT has been added while Ingenia Communities Group ((INA)) is no longer included.

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RBC Capital‘s list of Global Mining Best Ideas now includes South32 ((S32)) and FireFly Metals ((FFM)), but no longer Sandfire Resources ((SFR)).

ASX-listed miners that were already selected are:

-Bellevue Gold ((BGL))
-Capstone Copper ((CSC))
-NextGen Energy ((NXG))
-Pilbara Minerals ((PLS))
-Westgold Resources ((WGX))

For gold exposure, RBC Capital also likes Newmont Corp ((NEM)).

See also: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/09/favourite-asx-gold-exposures/

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Morningstar’s Best Stock Ideas currently consists of 15 ASX-listed companies:

-APA Group ((APA))
-ASX ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-TPG Telecom ((TPG))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

No changes were made since the update in March.

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Analysts at Barrenjoey have nominated Car Group ((CAR)) and NexctDC ((NXT)) as their two Top Picks for the ASX100.

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The Model Portfolio at Canaccord Genuity added exposure to BlueScope Steel ((BSL)), Amcor ((AMC)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Dexus ((DXS)) in place of South32 ((S32)), Endeavour Group ((EDV)), Suncorp Group ((SUN)) and Scentre Group ((SCG)).

Other holdings in the portfolio include BHP Group ((BHP)), CSL ((CSL)), Goodman Group ((GMG)), James Hardie ((JHX)), Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)), Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Stockland ((SGP)), Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)), Santos ((STO)), Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)), Woolworths Group ((WOW)), and Xero ((XRO)).

Canaccord Genuity strategists are concerned the rotation out of last year’s winners might have further to run in 2025 and the Model Portfolio composition certainly looks like a reflection of such view.

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Ord Minnett has updated its selection of Top Small Cap Ideas, now comprising of:

-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Brazilian Rare Earths ((BRE))
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Electro Optic Systems Holdings ((EOS))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Qoria ((QOR))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Zip Co ((ZIP))

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Morgan Stanley’s post-February Conviction Calls among ASX-listed smaller cap companies:

-Corporate Travel Management ((CTD))
-Generation Development ((GDG))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS))
-Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))
-Superloop ((SLC))

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Goldman Sachs post-February key calls:

-Life360 ((360))
-Codan ((CDA))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))

Fast food chain Guzman y Gomez ((GMG)) has been selected as a prime Sell as the analysts cannot reconcile what they believe is an overly ambitious expansion plan with an elevated valuation, on top of overhang from shareholders coming out of escrow in March and August, respectively opening up 13% and 40% of total capital possibly up for sale.

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UBS’s Most Preferred Exposures:

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Lifestyle Communities ((LIC))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-Light & Wonder ((LNW))
-Life360 ((360))

UBS’s Least Preferred exposures:

-APA Group ((APA))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-JB Hi-Fi ((JBH))
-Reece ((REH))
-Sonic Healthcare ((SHL))

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Macquarie’s Best Picks among small- and MidCaps:

-Austal ((ASB))
-AUB Group ((AUB))
-a2 Milk Co ((A2M))
-Breville Group ((BRG))
-G8 Education ((GEM))
-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-IPH Ltd ((IPH))
-JB Hi-Fi ((JBH))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Monadelphous ((MND))
-Megaport ((MP1))
-Monash IVF ((MVF))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-oOh!media ((OML))
-Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))
-Pinnacle Investment Partners ((PNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Service Stream ((SSM))
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Ventia Services ((VNT))

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Morgans post-February update on local TMT stocks (Technology, Media and Telcos) has resulted in the following Key Picks:

-In Technology, WiseTech Global ((WTC)) is most preferred

-In Media, the new favourite is Car Group ((CAR)) following share price weakness and Airtasker ((ART)) among small caps

-Among Telcos, Superloop ((SLC)) is most preferred

-In Gaming, Morgans’ favourite remains Light & Wonder ((LNW))

Same broker also updated on Financial Services (insurers, wealth managers, payment platforms, stock brokers, etc) and here its Key Picks are now (in order of preference) QBE Insurance ((QBE)), Suncorp Group ((SUN)), Generation Development ((GDG)), and MA Financial ((MAF)).

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The 34 Best Ideas by stockbroker Morgans:

-Acrow ((ACF))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-Avita Medical ((AVH))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Corporate Travel Management ((CTD))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-DigiCo Infrastructure ((DGT))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Guzman y Gomez ((GYG))
-HomeCo Daily Needs REIT ((HDN))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Light & Wonder ((LNW))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-MA Financial ((MAF))
-Megaport ((MP1))
-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Orica ((ORI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-South32 ((S32))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Webjet Group ((WJL))
-WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL))
-Whitehaven Coal ((WHC))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

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Ord Minnett post-February most preferred sector exposures:

At its core, the suggestion made to investors is maybe, at least for the time being, preference companies with strong balance sheets, leading market positions and positive earnings momentum.

Those are the key principles that underpin Ord Minnett’s updated sector allocations and preferences.

-Financials; the preference is for Judo Bank ((JDO)) and Macquarie Group ((MQG)) and if you must own one of the Big Four, the preference goes out to ANZ Bank ((ANZ)).

Elsewhere, the preference lays with Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), as well as with insurance brokers AUB Group ((AUB)) and Steadfast Group ((SDF)), and with Medibank Private ((MPL)).

-Resources; Northern Star ((NST)) has been chosen as a large cap gold exposure, while Vault Minerals ((VAU)) has been selected among smaller caps. BlueScope Steel ((BSL)) is equally viewed positively (tariffs are ultimately a positive, the broker predicts).

-Consumer Stocks; Ord Minnett’s three favourites are Metcash ((MTS)), Coles Group ((COL)), and Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)).

-Real Estate; Dexus ((DXS)), Vicinity Centres ((VCX)), and Waypoint REIT ((WPR)) are preferred.

-Energy and Utilities; Most preferred are Karoon Gas ((KAR)), Santos ((STO)), APA Group ((APA)) and Origin Energy ((ORG)).

-Healthcare; the three sector favourites are CSL ((CSL)), ResMed ((RMD)), and Regis Healthcare ((REG)).

-Communication Services and IT; Xero ((XRO)), SiteMinder ((SDR)), Telstra ((TLS)), and Aussie Broadband ((ABB)) are the favourites (all for very different reasons).

-Industrials; Ord Minnett favours Brambles ((BXB)), Qube Holdings ((QUB)), and Qantas Airways ((QAN)).

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UBS’s smaller cap favourites (“Key Picks”) post February are:

-Codan ((CDA))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-Hansen Technologies ((HSN))
-Life360 ((360))
-MA Financial Group ((MAF))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-Superloop ((SLC))
-Web Travel Group ((WEB))
-Zip Co ((ZIP))

In addition, the UBS team covering Emerging Companies’ also highlights a positive stance on Corporate Travel Management ((CTD)), Megaport ((MP1)), Imdex ((IMD)), and oOh!media ((OML)). They are cautious regarding ARB Corp ((ARB)).

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Crestone’s Best Sector Ideas are an attempt to identify the best in breed business models for major industry group sectors for long-term oriented investors. Anticipated performance over the next three years is part of the key considerations.

The latest updated selection consists of 18 companies:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cochlear ((COL))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone’s selection of sustainable dividend growers consists of 22 names. Historically, the stock pickers remind investors, companies that grow dividends consistently can offer superior long-term return for those who own them.

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress Ltd ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Westpac Banking ((WBC))

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Morgan Stanley’s Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-Santos ((STO))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

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Morgan Stanley’s Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

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Macquarie Wealths recommended Growth Portfolio:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Seek ((SEK))
-Aristocrat leisure ((ALL))
-Northern Star ((NST))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Pexa Group ((PXA))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-Viva Energy ((VEA))
-Xero ((XRO))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))

Macquarie Wealth’s recommended Income Portfolio:

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Premier Investments ((PMV))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Viva Energy ((VEA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Deterra Royalties ((DRR))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-Charter Hall Retail REIT ((CQR))
-Amcor ((AMC))

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Paying subscribers have 24/7 access to a dedicated section on my personal research into All-Weather Performers:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I – All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi’s View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of ‘Rudi’s View’. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi’s View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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