Rudi’s View: Best Buys & Conviction Calls On ASX

Rudi's View | Apr 10 2025

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Earlier this week, I posted a message that received quite a number of 'likes' on X (formerly Twitter). It read:

There's no two ways about it, if you are still invested in today's markets, you are counting on two key things:

1. sanity and common sense will prevail, eventually
2. nothing fundamentally breaks in the meantime

There are no guarantees whatsoever both will stand tall as every day passes by.

By Thursday morning Australian time it would appear both factors have grabbed the upper hand and share markets have responded with a fierce relief rally.

I don't think anyone should get too excited just yet. This is a longer-dated process and even with relief on tariffs (for how long it may last) at some point the focus will shift to the economic damage done, and that's anyone's guess at this point in time.

Two rumours that should have everyone's attention are:

-Apparently the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, had a hissy-fit about what was happening in financial markets and that proved the swing factor inside a heavily divided US administration.

Hedge fund manager Bessent is highly regarded by his peers on Wall Street and --in rough terms-- seen as the adult in the room when it comes to financial markets.

Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick does not carry the same level of gravitas. Prior to Bessent's line in the sand, he seemed to have been sidestepped in favour of nutty professor Peter Navarro, who now, presumably, is licking his wounds.

-Apparently there was a 'secret' chat room that required US$1m for access prior to the tariff relief announcement. The US President also signalled on Truth Social it is a great time to start buying prior to the announcement. Make of both what you like, but the optics, at the very least, are not great.

As reported on Monday, I will be spending the coming two weeks in Belgium and the Netherlands. With a heavy heart, given circumstances, but this trip was planned long time ago and how could I ever anticipate the current circumstances?

Whether you are fully invested, half in cash, 100% on the sidelines, looking to make portfolio changes or preparing to start buying shares again --and all variations in between-- below is an overview of the latest changes and updates on analysts' Best Ideas and Conviction Calls, as well as Model Portfolio compositions.

I hope you can use it to your own benefit. The All-Weather Model Portfolio has literally made no changes over the past week, and I don't think we'll make any soon either. Then again, we already are invested in Defensives and High Quality companies.

Good luck to you all. Hopefully it'll be relatively easier to stay composed, healthy and sane from here onwards (but there are absolutely no guarantees).

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My recent writings (for those who missed them or like a re-read):

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/09/rudis-view-share-market-scenarios-dilemmas/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/03/rudis-view-you-can-not-be-serious/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/02/rudis-view-time-for-appreciating-quality/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/26/rudis-view-captive-uncomfortable/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/19/rudis-view-navigating-the-trump-slump/

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A special report by the Global Investment Committee at Morgan Stanley this week concluded with the following:

"[...] the moral of the story for us right now is these are the exact type of times that the best thing you can do is sit on your hands, right, watch and wait a little bit.

"Focus on being diversified. Focus on not making big wagers and thinking that you know which way things are going. Because I don't think anybody does. We, every now and then say and admit that nobody knows nothing.

"And I think we're in one of those chapters in the market where the best advice is to sit tight, to stay close to your Advisor and really stay anchored to your asset allocation, which is hopefully anchored to your long-term financial plan."