Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 31-10-25

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This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday October 27 to Friday October 31, 2025
Total Upgrades: 9
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 60.53%; Hold 30.79%; Sell 8.68%

For the week ending Friday, October 31, 2025, FNArena tracked nine upgrades and fourteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Average target price increases outpaced cuts for the seventeenth consecutive week, while falls in average forecasts by analysts exceeded rises. Stocks in the Resources sector accounted for the majority of target price changes (both up and down) as well as for rises in earnings forecasts.

Furniture retailer Nick Scali heads up the positive change to target table below following its AGM trading update. In the words of Chairman John Ingram, the company is displaying strong progress in advancing its UK strategy as well as delivering solid results across the A&NZ region.

Macquarie noted strong same store written sales orders in A&NZ, up 11% year-to-date in the first half.

Weaker updates from furnishing peers such as Adairs and Beacon Lighting suggest to the analyst Nick Scali is gaining market share in its core Australian business.

Robust profit guidance for A&NZ of between $39-40m also indicates to the broker the performance was not reliant on heavy discounting or promotional activity.

Citi raised its FY27 and FY28 profit forecasts by 2% and 4%, respectively, reflecting stronger sales momentum in A&NZ and growing confidence the UK operations are on track to reach breakeven.

The UK business reported a 10% year-on-year rise in written sales orders. All Fabb stores are expected to be converted to the Nick Scali format by December, with 14 of 20 already completed. Gross margins have improved markedly, noted Ord Minnett, rising to 58.3% in the quarter from 41% at the time of acquisition.

This Sell-rated broker is more dubious on the prospects of the UK division than the wider market. It’s noted UK sales of $7.6m in August and September imply annualised sales of around $51m, below the company’s guided breakeven level of $53m, which assumes minimal promotional spend.

While sales per store are rising, Nick Scali may need to allocate -5-8% of sales to marketing to sustain this growth, Ord Minnett suggested, likely pushing the breakeven threshold further above $53m.

Lithium miner Pilbara Minerals and Chalice Mining (developing a deposit containing palladium, platinum group elements, nickel, copper, and cobalt) are next on the target price table with average rises of 16% and 13%, respectively.

Pilbara and Chalice also fill positions one and two on the week’s list for positive change to average earnings forecast. Chalice’s position on these tables should be ignored due to a data entry glitch.

The Pilbara Minerals’ share price has risen 45% year to date compared a 10% rise in spodumene prices and 4% for Chinese lithium carbonate prices.

Broker views on the company’s “impressive” September quarter operational report and the impact of a volatile lithium market environment are detailed at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/28/valuation-vs-sentiment-for-pilbara-minerals/

Metallurgical coal exposure Coranado Global Resources is next with a rise in average target price of just over 11% following its September quarter operational report showing a ‘beat’ on production at all three mines (Curragh, Buchanan, and Logan), while mining costs were in line with Macquarie’s expectations.

Run-of-mine (ROM) coal production/saleable coal production were beats of 8% and 5%, respectively against the analyst’s forecasts though sales missed by -8% due to shipping congestion in Australia and US vessel scheduling issues.

Coronado’s near-term operational performance should improve, in Ord Minnett’s opinion, as production ramps-up at Mammoth underground (Curragh) and due to the Buchanan expansion project.

On the flipside, two industrial exposures, Vista International and CSL, received the largest falls in average broker targets of -11% and -10%, respectively.

Vertically integrated cinema software provider Vista is uniquely positioned with a defensible market presence and a highly sticky customer base, according to Ord Minnett, which last week initiated research coverage with a Buy rating.

The broker set a $3.22 price target, which had the effect of dragging down the average target of now four daily monitored brokers in the FNArena database.

Vista’s cloud transition is expected to double revenue and expand margins by 1,820bps by 2030, and the analysts see further upside via payments integration and platform expansion.

On Ord Minnett’s assessment valuation remains undemanding, with the market seen as overly focused on short-term cash flow rather than long-term earnings leverage.

The CSL share price resumed its downward trajectory last week after management yet again downgraded FY26 profit growth guidance largely because declining US influenza vaccination rates are pressuring the Seqirus business.

Management will also delay its previously announced strategy to de-merge Seqirus in FY26 via a separate listing on the ASX, until US influenza vaccine market conditions improve.

For a summary of broker views, which did include positives, see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/31/anti-vaxxers-china-cloud-csls-future/

Regarding rises in average earnings forecasts by brokers, here the two largest Industrial sector beneficiaries were Helloworld Travel and Viva Energy.

Morgans and Ord Minnett updated their forecasts for a trading update at Helloworld’s AGM the prior week, where management upgraded FY26 earnings guidance.

Morgans attributed the upgrade to both organic growth and recent acquisitions, including the remaining 50% purchase of Gold Coast-based remote travel agency Mobile Travel Holdings. Strong forward bookings were also highlighted, with FY26 air departures up 11%.

Ord Minnett noted an ongoing solid financial position for Helloworld, forecasting FY26 net cash of around $39m and no debt. The company’s $58m stake in Webjet Group is also seen as providing strategic flexibility.

This broker found Viva Energy’s September quarter update was mixed. Ongoing weakness was noted across the Convenience & Mobility and Commercial & Industrial segments, offset by a strong result from the Geelong refinery.

Macquarie attributed the refinery performance to higher utilisation and GRM (gross refining margin) due to an efficient RCCU (residual catalytic cracking unit) turnaround. Full refinery optimisation is expected mid-November with the ULSG (ultra-low sulphur gasoline) unit.

UBS highlighted the Convenience & Mobility segment experienced a 3.5% improvement in gross margin, aided by better product mix and pricing. Additionally, $35m in synergies and $80m in group-wide cost savings are thought to remain on track.

Mineral Resources is next with a 9% rise in average earnings forecast. Both Morgan Stanley and Bell Potter described the company’s September quarter as “exceptionally strong”.

Production outperformed expectations across all sites, noted Macquarie, with the Pilbara Hub up 15% versus consensus, Onslow 5%, Mt Marion 14%, and Wodgina 50%. The latter was considered the main surprise and maintaining this improvement is seen as key.

While management is executing well, Morgans felt most of the upside stemming from this is already priced into the (rallying) share price. Growth in mining services is also forecast to be more muted.

Nufarm received the largest fall in average earnings forecasts solely due to an update by Macquarie.

Ahead of the company’s FY25 results on November 19, the broker cut its FY25 EPS forecast by -41% on higher interest and depreciation assumptions, while lifting FY26 estimates by 1%.

Macquarie lowered its target price to $2.55 from $3.08 and retains a Neutral rating, citing weaker AgChem peer multiples and the likely write-down of the company’s Seeds portfolio value.

Nufarm is followed on the earnings downgrade table by nine Resource sector stocks; all are impacted by September quarter reporting. Lithium exposures IGO Ltd and Liontown Resources received the largest downgrades from brokers.

What started with weak FY26 production guidance in August has been followed up with a weak performance by IGO in the September quarter, UBS noted, which proceeded to downgrade its rating to Sell from Neutral.

Production and sales missed expectations at Greenbushes and Nova, noted Macquarie, but this analyst also noted the Chemical Grade Plant 3, a major spodumene concentrate processing facility under construction at Greenbushes, remains on track and stockpiles provide flexibility into a stronger near-term lithium market.

Realised pricing was the main disappointment at Liontown Resources, Ord Minnett commented, driving shares down despite stronger production and shipments.

Bell Potter anticipated stronger quarters ahead as higher-grade underground ore replaces open-pit material, improving recoveries and product grade.

Whitehaven Coal’s September quarter was softer than expected by UBS due to weather disruptions and mine sequencing issues.

Ramelius Resources’ quarterly was impacted by a one-year delay to the Rebecca project to prioritise the Mt Magnet mill expansion, explained Macquarie.

The same broker noted Lynas Rare Earths missed on revenue expectation due to weaker realised prices, which were -21% lower-than-expected by the analyst.

Returning to positive outcomes, here Sandfire Resources appears in the tables below for positive target and earnings forecast changes following first quarter results showing progress at Motheo and Matsa. For greater detail see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/29/how-much-sandfire-premium-is-justified/

Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 60.53% of the total, versus 30.79% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.68%.

Upgrade

A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Morgan Stanley upgrades a2 Milk Co to Overweight from Equal-weight with a higher target price of $10 from $8.10, as the analyst revisits the stock coverage in the food and beverage sector.

a2 Milk’s acquisition of the Pokeno blending and canning facility is considered “transformative” and offers the broker greater confidence in top-line growth for an increased portfolio of China label products.

The vertical integration into manufacturing brings forth margin benefits and diversifies the risk away from Synlait ((SM1)), its manufacturing partner.

Morgan Stanley lifts its earnings estimates by around 7% for FY27/FY28.

Industry View: In-Line.

AUSTAL LIMITED ((ASB)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Austal’s FY26 EBIT guidance of $135m provided at the AGM was 4% above consensus and Macquarie’s forecasts, implying 19% y/y growth. Adjusting for the MMF3 submarine contract, the underlying EBIT growth forecast is around 4%.

The broker points to the company’s guidance upgrade sequence for FY25, which went from $80m at AGM, to not less than $80m at 1H25 result and to not less than $100m just before the FY25 result.

TATS program settlement was completed, with US$92m cash received and no further earnings impact expected.

For context, the TATS issue was about cost and schedule pressures from design delays in the shipbuilding contract with the US Navy, which, following resolution, frees the company to focus on more profitable work.

The broker lifted FY26 EBIT forecast to around $134m from $130m following the guidance. FY26 EPS forecast upgraded by 4% and FY27 by 2%.

Target rises to $8.10 from $7.95. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Macquarie upgrades Capricorn Metals to Neutral from Underperform, with a $13 target retained, as the 1Q26 report was pre-announced with few surprises.

The miner produced around 32koz, or circa 27% of the FY26 midpoint of guidance, which management retained.

All-in-sustaining costs were better than expected by 5% versus consensus, but sales fell and missed the analyst’s forecast by -11% and consensus by -13%.

Cash also came in lower by -3% versus the broker’s estimate and -6% below consensus, attributed to lower sales.

FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Fortescue’s September quarter (1Q26) update fell slightly short of Bell Potter’s forecasts, but the broker still assesses it as a good start to FY26, given it is not a seasonally strong quarter.

The company shipped 49.7Mt of iron ore in 1Q26 at C1 costs of US$18.17/wmt, slightly below forecasts due to seasonally lower production. Output fell -10% qoq, tracking the lower end of FY26 guidance, while costs rose 12% q/q from reduced volumes.

The broker notes the Blacksmith acquisition underpins a revised hematite life-of-mine (LOM) plan, adding 243Mt @ 59.3% Fe to the resource base. Blending Blacksmith with Solomon Hub deposits will extend mine life and support a blended 55% Fe product from FY27.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 7% and FY27 by 8%.

Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell. Target rises to $19.30 from $17.05 on revised LOM plan and higher iron price forecasts.

PANTORO GOLD LIMITED ((PNR)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Pantoro Gold made a disappointing start to FY26, with 1Q26 production and cost, and consequently, cash balance missing Ord Minnett’s estimates and the consensus.

The broker, however, views this as temporary, caused by sequencing issues at Scotia and a trapped bogger at the OK underground mine.

The company maintained FY26 production and cost guidance as production recovers at a faster rate at northern Scotia and on improved consistency at OK.

The broker is forecasting production of 102koz, at the lower end of 110-110koz guidance, and costs higher at $2,347/oz vs guidance of 1,950-2,250/oz.

EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by around -7%. Target cut to $6.40 from $6.65.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on -15% share price fall since the broker moved to Accumulate.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Following recent share price weakness, Macquarie upgrades its rating for Perseus Mining to Outperform from Neutral.

The company’s September quarter result was broadly in line with the broker’s expectations, with 100koz gold produced and costs (AISC) of -US$1,463/oz, a 7% beat.

FY26 guidance of 400-440koz at costs (AISC) of -US$1,460-1,620/oz is unchanged, with output expected to lift in the second half as grades improve at Edikan and Sissingue.

Cash fell -US$8m to US$744m, impacted by working capital and currency movements, though the company remains debt-free and holds US$94m in bullion, highlights the analyst.

Macquarie lifts its FY26 earnings forecast 1% and trims FY27-28 slightly. Target unchanged at $5.50.

QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Macquarie believes Jetstar remains Qantas Airways’ key growth driver domestically and internationally, supported by the redeployment of JSA (Jetstar Asia) aircraft.

Project Sunrise boosts productivity, cutting London service requirements from three to two aircraft, delivering major efficiency gains.

The broker notes domestic demand is solid with moderate capacity growth (5-6%) and strong load factors, while international load factors are softer, especially on US routes.

Lower fuel prices are offset by higher crack spreads, creating a neutral FY26 net impact. The broker revised its forecasting approach to divisional operating costs rather than group costs, resulting in a -1.5% cut to FY26 earnings forecast and a 3.5% rise to FY27.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $12.29 from $12.00.

RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/0/0

In a business outlook, Ramelius Resources published studies on Mt Magnet/Dalgaranga, which were broadly in line with Macquarie’s prior outlook on capex, with modest production and AISC beats.

However, the company also flagged a delay to the Rebecca project by one year to prioritise Mt Magnet mill expansion.

The FY26-FY30 production guidance of 1.6Moz was -8% below the broker’s prior estimate, while AISC of $1,976/oz was 14% better than expected.

The company expects total growth capex of $1.1bn over the next five years, in line with the broker, although FY26 growth capex was 95% above. Ramelius is fully funded for this, and the broker expects positive free cash flow to resume in FY27.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -28% but FY27 lifted by 15%. Target price trimmed to $3.90 from $4.20.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED ((WOW)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/5/0

Bell Potter upgrades Woolworths Group to Buy from Hold and lifts the target to $30.70 from $29.80 post the company’s 1Q26 update, which revealed an encouraging trend.

Sales grew 2.5% y/y to $18,483m, slightly ahead of the broker’s forecast due to Australian B2B growth. Australian food revenues lifted 2.1% y/y.

Australian B2B revenues lifted 6.2%, ahead of expectations, with some benefit from the realignment of calendar. NZ food revenues grew 2.5% y/y and W Living sales rose 3.3% y/y with Big W up 1% y/y.

Bell Potter believes the two-year downgrade cycle is coming to an end, and the stock is trading on a reasonable valuation of circa -12% discount to Coles Group ((COL)) and around a -14% discount to historical forward EV/EBITDA valuation.

Downgrade

CHAMPION IRON LIMITED ((CIA)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Bell Potter raises its target price for Champion Iron to $5.65 from $5.40 and downgrades to Hold from Buy. The company reported a strong September quarter, according to the analysts, with production of 3.6mt and record sales of 3.9mt.

Revenue reached CA$493m and first-half earnings (EBITDA) totalled CA$233m, while net income was CA$81m.

Costs fell 7% to -CA$76/t, the first quarterly decline in over a year, highlights the broker, despite scheduled maintenance and rail disruptions.

Bell Potter notes the CA$500m Direct Reduction Pellet Feed (DRPF) project remains on track for December commissioning, with first shipments expected mid-2026.

COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Collins Foods’ 2025 Investor Day reaffirmed Morgans’ confidence in the company’s growth outlook, with guidance for low- to mid-teens FY26 profit growth reiterated.

The broker highlights opportunities to unlock further volume growth in Australia through enhanced customer experience, full digital rollout, productivity gains, and new store formats such as T-line kitchens and dual drive-thrus.

These initiatives are already driving double-digit transaction growth in remodelled stores, observe the analysts.

In Europe, Morgans sees strong potential from the planned rollout of 40-70 new KFC stores in Germany over five years, supported by improved brand management and capital discipline.

Morgans downgrades to Accumulate from Buy due to recent share price appreciation and retains a $12.20 target price.

COSOL LIMITED ((COS)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Bell Potter lowers its target for Cosol to 55c from 85c on lower earnings forecasts and a lower assumed multiple, and downgrades to Hold from Buy following another disappointing update at its AGM.

Management now guides to 1H revenue down -13% year-on-year to around $50m and gross margin of 29-30% versus 31.5% previously.

Weakness in the coal sector offset stronger iron ore and gold revenue, observe the analysts, though the second-half pipeline remains solid.

Management is restructuring operations to achieve annualised cost savings of about -$1m.

CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CTD)) Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/5/0

Corporate Travel Management’s first quarter update showed strong momentum, according to UBS. New business wins of $1.72bn in FY25 and $0.43bn in 1Q26 are already tracking ahead of FY26 forecasts, highlight the analysts.

Revenue rose 6% year-on-year to $180m, while earnings (EBITDA) increased 29% to $40.9m, lifting margins by 400bps to 23% on improved operating leverage, observes UBS.

Europe led performance, North America continued to recover, while Asia remained affected by tariff uncertainty, explains the broker.

UBS estimates FY26 earnings (EBITDA) of around $215m versus $200m consensus and retains a Neutral rating with a $16.70 target price.

DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/1/2

Morgan Stanley downgrades Domino’s Pizza Enterprises to Underweight from Equal-weight, with a drop in target price to $14.60 from $15.55 as the analyst revisits the stock coverage in the food and beverage sector.

The share price has rallied 15% on positive expectations around the cost-out program, but the medium-term move to sustainable profitability requires re-investment to restore franchise profitability.

Japan and France remain challenging, with no visible strategy for a turnaround, and although the valuation ascribed to the stock is not demanding, Morgan Stanley believes there are few reasons for ongoing re-rating, with execution risks still in place.

DATA#3 LIMITED. ((DTL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Data#3’s 1H26 profit before tax (PBT) guidance of $32-34m at the AGM exceeded expectations, including Macquarie’s forecast of $33.5m. Softness in software is being offset by strong Infrastructure Solutions growth.

The broker estimates the company needs to deliver $8m higher PBT in 2H to reach its FY26 forecast of $75m, but sees risks weighted to the downside.

Based on NAB’s SME survey showing a decline in capex expectations, the broker is of the view purchasing by SMEs remain on hold.

In the near term, valuation is seen as balanced at 28x P/E, but long-term tailwinds from tech inflation and software usage remain, though SaaS is seen as a drag.

Minor revisions made to FY26-27 forecasts. Target rises to $9.85 from $9.15.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/2

What started with a weak FY26 production guidance in August has been followed up with a weak performance in the September quarter, UBS analysts comment.

But while IGO Ltd has made a soft start into the fresh financial year, the broker does believe the outlook for lithium pricing is improving.

If UBS’ revised forecasts prove correct, the price of lithium will rise by 80% over the coming 24 months.

Alas, the broker suggests such a prospect has already been priced in, hence the downgrade to Sell from Neutral. The price target falls to $5.20 from $5.35.

MADER GROUP LIMITED ((MAD)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Bell Potter had a look at cyclical drivers for Mader Group, concluding the key operating markets remain in growth mode, despite recent softening in North America..

In Australia, the broker notes the iron ore majors reported a strong September quarter, supporting the company’s equipment services demand.

North American activity softened since the June quarter, with carload growth slowing for coal (3.8% y/y vs 15% at FY25), quarry materials (2.7% vs 5.9%), and metallic ores (-11% vs -8.5%), the broker observed.

The broker will look ahead to OEM and dealer commentary over the coming weeks to gauge sentiment among resource companies and investment levels.

The broker re-iterated the FY26 guidance of over $1bn revenue and net profit of over $65m looks conservative based on positive momentum at FY25-exit. 

Target unchanged at $9. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy following recent share price gains.

NICK SCALI LIMITED ((NCK)) Downgrade to Sell from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/1

Nick Scali reported a strong September quarter (1Q26), Ord Minnett observes, with Australasian same-store sales up 11% y/y and UK sales up 10% y/y.

The broker expects sales momentum to lift in 1H26, supporting 7-9% revenue growth guidance and solid 2H profits.

UK performance is improving, with gross margins up to 58.3% from 41% when Fabb stores were acquired. However, sales at $51m annualised remain below the $53m break-even target, especially with the required marketing spend, the broker highlights.

EPS forecast for FY26 raised by 5.8% and FY27 by 4.1%. Target lifted to $19 from $18.

Rating downgraded to Sell from Lighten on valuation grounds. The broker regards market expectations as overly optimistic on UK performance, and notes domestic spending faces headwinds from persistent inflation.

PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED ((PLS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Morgans and Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/2/4

Macquarie assesses Pilbara Minerals’ 1Q26 update as a strong beat, with production up 6% vs the consensus and cash costs -5% below the market expectations.

Production of 225kt and record 78.2% recovery reflect continued efficiency gains from the Pilgan plant optimisation, supporting future output and cost improvements, the broker highlights.

The POSCO JV remains challenged, operating below capacity and reducing offtake to 150kt amid weak margins.

Despite improved lithium demand sentiment, the broker reckons the near-term upside appears priced in, with shares implying US$1,200/t spodumene.

EPS forecast for FY26 upgraded by 22% and by 44% for FY27. Target rises to $3.00 from $2.75.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Morgans assesses Pilbara Minerals September quarter (1Q26) update as strong, beating on production, up 6% vs the consensus. Revenue was up 30% q/q, with 78% recoveries exceeding design levels.

Unit cost of $540/t and solid liquidity of $1.48bn underline strong operations, in the broker’s view. 

The broker notes the POSCO JV cut 2026 offtake to 150kt from 315kt amid weaker US hydroxide demand due to tariffs and IRA-linked orders

The company continues to work with the government on the Australia-US critical minerals framework, advocating shared infrastructure over price floors.

Target rises to $2.80 from $2.30. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold on stretched valuation.

Bell Potter notes Pilbara Minerals delivered a strong September quarter (1Q26) with 225kt spodumene production vs its forecast of 215kt and record 78% recoveries (72% in 4Q25). It drove unit costs down -13% q/q to $540/t.

The company is focusing on cost reduction and cash preservation amid weak lithium prices, while advancing growth projects across Brazil, Pilgangoora, and its POSCO JV. FY26 guidance was maintained.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast to 1.2c from -0.4c, and FY27 by 4%. 

Target rises to $2.65 from $2.10. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold on strong share price gains.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans and Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Morgans downgrades Whitehaven Coal to Accumulate from Buy with a new target price of $7.95, down from $8.10 previously.

The miner’s 1Q26 update showed NSW operations were heavily impacted by August wet weather, with run-of-mine production falling -12% on the prior quarter. No damage was reported from the flooding.

NSW production came in at 4.356mt, which met the analyst’s forecast of 4.35mt and was slightly lower than consensus of 4.4mt. QLD ROM production fell -17% in the quarter to 4.7mt on the previous quarter, below both Morgans and consensus.

Cash of US$500m is held on deposit for the deferred payment due to BMA in April.

Morgans believes investors should look through the cyclical market pessimism on coal prices and concentrate on Whitehaven’s strength and diversified business.

Ord Minnett downgrades Whitehaven Coal to Accumulate from Buy with a lower target price of $7.60 from $7.90, noting the share price has outperformed its peers in 2025, rising 13% versus a decline for peers of -32%.

The September quarter met expectations for production at 7.3mt, but net debt came in higher at $0.8bn from working capital changes, as well as realised prices and costs.

The miner has retained FY26 guidance of 29.5-33mt for sales, with ongoing dragline optimisation at Blackwater and less downtime at Narrabri.

Costs are expected to decline over the year, with the analyst forecasting $136/t.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
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