Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 07-11-25

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This story features ADAIRS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADH
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday November 3 to Friday November 7, 2025
Total Upgrades: 14
Total Downgrades: 7
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 60.81%; Hold 30.56%; Sell 8.63%

For the week ending Friday, November 7, 2025, FNArena tracked fourteen upgrades and seven downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Goodman Group received ratings upgrades from two separate brokers following a quarterly update that saw its share price weaken, while National Australia Bank was downgraded twice after reporting FY25 results.

Macquarie upgraded Goodman to Outperform from Neutral following a -12.4% share price decline so far this year, noting the stock looks attractive based on a sum-of-the-parts-based valuation and relative to peers.

Management provided further property-by-property details in relation to the data centre development pipeline and reaffirmed 9% operating EPS growth guidance for FY26, with a skew to the second half.

Work in progress is expected to exceed $17.5bn by June 2026, with secured power capacity increasing to 3.4MW. Updates on new data centre lease agreements and potential capital partnerships are anticipated by August 2026.

For reasons similar to those cited by Macquarie, UBS upgraded its rating for Goodman to Buy from Neutral.

The company’s September quarter update fell slightly short of elevated expectations due to slower-than-anticipated progress in data centre development, this broker noted.

The analysts pointed to upcoming catalysts, including increased data centre commencements supported by work in progress and new capital partnerships expected in Australia and Europe during the second half.

UBS advised patience, suggesting the data centre growth thesis will take time to fully materialise.

Morgan Stanley described National Australia Bank’s second-half FY25 result as mixed, noting the earnings outlook and capital position lack the strength needed to support meaningful share price upside. The broker’s rating was downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight.

In downgrading to Sell from Lighten, Ord Minnett noted NAB’s higher-than forecast bad debt charges and concerns over its regulatory capital position.

The bank’s main challenge, according to this broker, is the rapid growth in risk-weighted assets combined with a 75% dividend payout, which has reduced its common equity tier-one ratio to 11.7%, down -31bps half-on-half.

After paying the final dividend, and without moderating balance-sheet expansion, the CET1 ratio is likely to approach the regulatory minimum of 11.25%, cautioned Ord Minnett.

More positively, pre-provision operating profit aligned with consensus and the final dividend proved in line with forecast, noted the analyst.

The key net interest margin was seen as a positive, widening by 8bps to 1.78% half-on-half, ahead of expectations for 1.73%. The improvement was driven primarily by gains from the replicating portfolio (a structured investment portfolio comprised of fixed-maturity and interest-rate sensitive instruments), with additional support from liquidity and treasury operations.

Quarter-on-quarter, the net interest margin remained stable, highlighted Ord Minnett, a solid result given market and treasury contributions were neutral in the September quarter, leaving the replicating portfolio as the main source of margin strength.

Average target price increases outpaced cuts for the eighteenth consecutive week, while rises in average forecasts by analysts also exceeded falls.

The average target price for Navigator Global Investments jumped by nearly 9% after UBS initiated coverage with a $3.40 target price, higher than the other two daily monitored brokers in the FNArena database (Ord Minnett and Macquarie at $2.80 and $2.61, respectively). All three have Buy, or equivalent ratings.

Describing Navigator as a diversified alternatives manager with a wholly owned hedge fund platform and minority stakes in ten partner firms, UBS felt the business is positioned to capture strong sector tailwinds.

The broker forecasts asset under management growth of around 6% annually and EPS growth of about 10%, exceeding consensus estimates. Resilient performance fees, supported by uncorrelated strategies, were noted, and the analysts see further upside from management’s active M&A strategy.

The stock is seen as undervalued versus global peers with upcoming catalysts including M&A execution, the November investor day, and potential ASX300 inclusion.

Eagers Automotive and Capstone Copper are next with rises in average targets of around 8%.

UBS upgraded Eagers to Neutral from Sell and raised its target price to $33 from $18.70, citing better-than-expected execution and near-term EPS momentum.

The broker incorporated the recent CanadaOne acquisition, expected to complete in early 2026, which drove EPS forecast upgrades of 15% for FY26 and 18% for FY27.

These upgrades also reflected accelerating volume growth for cars from Chinese automaker BYD, forecast to double by FY27, and continued gains from strategic margin initiatives and technology investments.

UBS highlighted a 17% three-year revenue compound annual growth rate for the company’s used-car business easyauto123, and growing investor confidence in Eagers’ global consumer positioning but cautioned auto retailing is a cyclical industry on very thin margins.

Regarding Capstone Copper, here Citi raised its target to $16.10 from $11.00 after September quarter (3Q FY25) copper output came in 2% above the consensus estimate, with cash costs flat at US$2.42/lb, -6% lower-than-anticipated.

Output from the Mantoverde mine (an open-pit copper-gold operation located in the Atacama Region of Chile) ‘beat’ consensus by 5%, with cash costs also outperforming at US$2.27/lb, thanks to a flexible design plan, highlighted the broker.

Morgans highlighted strong execution across both Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos open-pit copper and silver operation (also in Chile), offsetting interruptions elsewhere.

Cozamin (underground copper-silver in Mexico) remained a steady contributor, while the performance of the Pinto Valley open-pit copper-molybdenum operation in Arizona also improved with water availability, explained the broker.

Sustained margin expansion is expected should copper prices remain near US$5/lb.

Capstone is also placed second on the earnings upgrade table wedged between uranium exposure Lotus Resources and Bubs Australia, which is focused on premium infant and adult dairy-based products.

The positions of Lotus and Bubs on the list owes more to the exaggeration in percentage changes to earnings owing to the small forecast number involved.

Ord Minnett found no surprises in the first-quarter FY26 update by Lotus, with management reaffirming progress on commissioning at the Kayelekera uranium project.

The broker noted the first production of yellowcake since 2014, when the mine was placed into care and maintenance, marking a key milestone in its restart program.

Shaw and Partners noted Bubs Australia’s performance is tracking ahead of expectations.

First-quarter revenue rose 30% year-on-year, outpacing the broker’s first half forecast for 21.4% growth. Earnings of $0.5m also compared favourably with Shaw’s half yearly forecast of $0.6m, indicating stronger-than-expected early momentum despite supply challenges.

After heading up the positive change to target table last week following a positive AGM trading update, furniture retailer Nick Scali is prominent again with a 10% lift in average broker earnings forecasts.

FNArena’s summary from last week can be accessed at

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/03/weekly-ratings-targets-forecast-changes-31-10-25/

Pexa Group’s first quarter met the consensus expectation and FY26 guidance was reaffirmed, with brokers noting a refinancing boost locally, and a remortgage volume tailwind in the UK.

For more details on analysts’ views and upside potential via Pexa’s UK expansion see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/07/market-not-valuing-pexa-groups-uk-potential/

Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 60.81% of the total, versus 30.56% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.63%.

Upgrade

ADAIRS LIMITED ((ADH)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Commenting on Adairs’s year-to-date trading update on October 22, Morgans notes the performance was broadly consistent with August guidance. Sales momentum has slowed in Adairs and Focus, observes the broker, while Mocka continues to perform strongly.

Group sales guidance was cut by -1.5% at the midpoint, with group gross margin guidance narrowed and lifted by 5bps.

The broker lowers its FY26 earnings forecasts by -6% for earnings (EBIT) and -5% for profit, reflecting weaker sales and a largely fixed cost base.

Morgans reduces its target to $2.60 from $2.90 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate.

AMCOR PLC ((AMC)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Morgans upgrades Amcor to Buy from Accumulate with a $15.20 target price on the basis of a “solid” 1Q26 result and management’s improved confidence in achieving synergies in FY26. Amcor reiterated FY26 EPS guidance of US80-83c, representing 12-17% growth at the midpoint.

Volumes came in basically in line with the previous quarter but were down -2% y/y as global weakness continues. Realised synergies of US38m were achieved from the Berry acquisition, with US50-55m slated for 2Q26.

Berry pushed flexible packaging sales in constant currency up 25%, with comparable volumes down -2.8% on a year earlier.

Rigid packaging sales in constant currency rose 205%, with earnings (EBIT) up 365% due to Berry.

Morgans sees Amcor as a very defensive company with a good track record of integrating large-scale transactions.

EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/0

UBS upgrades Eagers Automotive to Neutral from Sell, with a higher target price of $33 from $18.70, reflecting an improved earnings outlook and stronger execution.

The analyst incorporates CanadaOne acquisition into earnings forecasts, with completion expected in early 2026, resulting in EPS estimate increases of 15% for FY26 and 18% for FY27.

The upgrades include a rise in underlying earnings forecasts driven by BYD volume growth expected to double by FY27 vs FY25. Management’s strategic margin initiatives around people and technology, and a  17% 3yr CAGR in revenue in EA123, also helped.

UBS notes the market is responding positively to the company’s strategy, viewing it as a quality global consumer story.

The broker cautions, however, that the industry remains highly cyclical and operates on thin margins, making the current environment an exception rather than the norm.

ASX LIMITED ((ASX)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/2

Commenting on CBOE-US’s planned exit from Australia, Macquarie reckons it is a confirmation the market is too small for multiple exchanges. This would support ASX’s pricing power in the medium term, in the broker’s view.

October activity was strong, with $9.4bn capital raised vs $3.1bn the year earlier, cash trades were up 51% y/y, and futures/options volumes rose 17% y/y.

The broker’s forecasts now assume the high-end of the capex/opex guidance for FY26-27, including $15m in extra costs, ahead of the ASIC inquiry outcome.

The stock is trading at 22.1x forward P/E, about -10.6% below its 3-year average, the broker highlights. Also, the earnings yield premium vs 10-year bonds has narrowed to 10bps, well below the long-term average of 154bps.

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 1% but FY27 trimmed by -0.7%. Target rises to $64 from $63.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED ((BRG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Citi reckons tariff risks for Breville Group appear largely priced in and FY26 earnings should hold up amid strong premium-segment demand.

The broker notes the company is mitigating cost pressures through pricing, mix improvements, production shifts, and FOB reductions.

The recent share price pullback offers an attractive entry into a high-quality franchise, with the 1H26 result in February 2026 as the next key catalyst for FY26 guidance.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target unchanged at $36.03.

Earlier, the broker took away some comforting commentary on top-line trends from Breville Group’s AGM. 

Management did not offer any FY26 guidance, only noting it will be provided with the 1H26 results in February. Positively, the broker noted the company is on track to achieve the target of 80% of US products’ production outside China by the end of 1H26.

CATAPULT SPORTS LIMITED ((CAT)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Ahead of Catapult Sports’ 1H26 results on 18 November, Bell Potter has upgraded the rating to Buy from Hold as the price target is now at a 15% premium to the share price.

No change to forecasts and the $7.50 target.

The broker doesn’t expect positive or negative surprises at the results, but does expect positive outlook commentary, mainly related to the recent Impect acquisition. 

Positive outlook commentary for the core business is also anticipated, including the potential for a new or expanded sideline video contract in 2H26 or FY27.

CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED ((CCP)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Macquarie reviewed the 3Q25 results of PRA Group and Encore Capital for the implications of their American business on Credit Corp.

The broker notes PRA and Encore’s PDL (purchased debt ledger) pricing remains stable, though volumes fell for the first time in seven quarters. Cash collections from 2021-23 vintages continue to underperform historical levels, with PRA’s back book lagging more significantly.

The broker highlights Encore lifted FY25 global collections target to US$2.55bn, up 18% y/y, while PRA left FY25 purchase target at US$1.2bn, below FY24’s US$1.4bn.

Target cut to $16.70 from $18.23 as the broker trimmed US segment PE multiple to 16x from 20x after factoring in risk in the US collection outlook.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

CAPSTONE COPPER CORP. ((CSC)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Capstone Copper’s September quarter result beat Morgans’ expectations on production, costs, and realised copper prices, underlining continued operating momentum.

Strong execution across Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos offset interruptions elsewhere, explains the broker. Cozamin remained a steady contributor and Pinto Valley performance improved with water availability.

The broker highlights reaffirmed FY26 production and cost guidance, a robust liquidity position, and progress on the Mantoverde Optimised project, which adds 20ktpa copper from FY27. Sustained margin expansion is expected if copper prices remain near US$5/lb.

Morgans upgrades to a Buy rating from Accumulate and trims its target to $16.10 from $16.30.

ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/5/1

Bell Potter lowers its target for Endeavour Group to $4.30 from $4.55 and upgrades to Buy from Hold following the September quarter result.

Group sales of $3.1bn were broadly in line with the broker’s forecasts, with Retail down -1.4% and Hotels up 4.4%.

The Retail performance improved through the quarter, observe the analysts, returning to growth in September as targeted promotions and events boosted sales, while online revenue rose 20.9%.

The broker highlights continued Hotel strength across food, bars and gaming, supported by rising Pub Plus adoption, the company’s digital loyalty and ordering platform.

The analysts trim their FY26-28 EPS forecasts by -4-9% but expect stronger retail momentum through 2Q26 and beyond.

GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Macquarie upgrades Goodman Group to Outperform from Neutral, retaining its target at $34.73 following a -12.4% decline in the stock price year-to-date (2025).

The 1Q26 update revealed work in progress is expected to grow around 17% by the end of FY26 to over $17.5bn, with data centres accounting for around $13bn or 497MW. Secured power has increased to 3.4GW, including an additional 650MW secured in Tokyo.

The group is progressing its capital partnerships well in Europe and Australia and is aiming for around 50% exposure to data centre developments.

Assets under management grew 0.4% to $85.9bn, with Australian partnership assets under management unchanged at $72.1bn.

There is no change in Macquarie’s EPS estimates for the group.

News on new data centre lease contracts and capital partnerships is expected by August 2026.

UBS notes Goodman Group’s September quarter (1Q26) update fell short of high expectations amid slower perceived data centre (DC) progress. At the same time, management displayed confidence on the leasing side, the broker highlights.

FY26 operating EPS guidance was re-iterated for 9% growth, though a stronger 2H skew is now expected (62% vs consensus of 52%). 

The broker is more focused on catalysts ahead including higher DC starts based on work-in-progress of $17.5bn, and capital partnering in Australia/Europe likely in 2H26).

The broker suggests patience with the stock as the DC thesis takes time to unfold.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral on more attractive valuation after recent underperformance. Target trimmed to $36.41 from $36.63.

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/1/1

Citi has delved into the risk/reward profile for James Hardie Industries, observing the company is tracking ahead of FY26 expectations, and a path to FY27 targets looks achievable without macro tailwinds.

Housing market sentiment is showing early signs of improvement, the broker highlights. 

Overall, risks are seen as manageable, with scope for outperformance. The broker lifted FY26 EBITDA forecast by 11% and FY27 by 9%, leading to a 28% lift to FY26 EPS estimate and a 21% increase to FY27.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target rises to $36.50 from $33.00.

LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Citi assesses Lovisa Holdings’ FY26 store rollout progress using insights from its Research Innovation Lab, alongside an analysis of US sales trends.

The broker’s analysis estimates 1,075 Lovisa stores as of 31 Oct 2025, implying 2.5 net openings per week, in line with expectations despite timing variability. Jewells stores appear to have edged down to 6 from 7, suggesting a slower or challenging rollout.

Overall, the findings indicate low downside risk to rollout targets and potential upside in Europe post-Claire’s closures. Life-for-like sales is expected to benefit from easier comps, store refurbishments, and the Claire’s US exit.

While Australian competition remains a watchpoint, recent share price weakness may already be reflecting this, the broker reckons.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target unchanged at $42.50.

WAGNERS HOLDING CO. LIMITED ((WGN)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Wagners Holding Co’s outlook for South East Queensland remains strong, Morgans observes, with cement volumes at the Port of Brisbane doubling the average in September 2025.

The broker highlights a return to profitability in the concrete division, expanding batch plants at Slacks Creek and Ipswich, and growing potential in the CFT pole business targeting around 4,000 sales in FY26.

It is thought the region’s pre-Olympics activity and infrastructure pipeline will underpin sustained demand and new project wins.

Morgans upgrades to an Accumulate rating from Hold and increases its target to $3.10 from $2.90.

Downgrade

ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/3/1

ANZ Bank’s FY25 result will include -$1.1bn in significant items, as largely expected by Ord Minnett. New costs included the -$285m PT Panin write-down, -$68m in Suncorp Bank contract exits and -$78m for closing Cashrewards.

It’s thought these one-offs have no CET1 impact, though the broker’s FY25 EPS forecast is cut by -7.4% while FY26 rises 0.5%.

The broker notes CEO Nuno Matos aims to lift return on tangible equity (ROTE) to 12% by FY28 and 13% by FY30 through cost reduction and business simplification.

The analysts caution revenue growth targets look challenging in a competitive market.

Ord Minnett downgrades ANZ to Lighten from Hold with an unchanged $30.00 target.

BATHURST RESOURCES LIMITED ((BRL)) Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Bathurst Resources to 80c from 88c and downgrades to Speculative Buy from Buy following release of the Buller Plateaux prefeasibility study (PFS). Capex and opex were higher-than-expected by the broker. 

The study outlines a 15-year mine life extension to the 1.2mtpa export operation. This development, together with the 22mt Tenas reserve, underpins expansion to 2.5mtpa by FY30, explain the analysts.

This represents the strongest growth profile within Ord Minnett’s resources coverage, with output expected to rise 70% on an equity basis versus 17% for peers. Consolidated free cash flow (FCF) is expected to reach around NZ$70m by FY31, implying a 39% yield.

MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((MGH)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Last week’s Maas Group’s FY26 guidance at the AGM implies to Morgans underlying earnings (EBITDA) of between $240-270m, up 9-23% y/y, though the midpoint was below consensus.

Civil construction and hire margins face competitive pressure, partly offset by strength in demand for construction materials and renewable energy projects, explains the analyst.

The broker highlights solid trading momentum, with recent acquisitions performing ahead of expectations and residential activity improving across key markets.

The analyst’s earnings forecasts have been trimmed -11-16% on lower Civil, Construction and Hire division margins. Balance sheet gearing is expected to ease with $200m in asset sales.

Morgans downgrades to an Accumulate rating from Buy and retains its $5.45 target.

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley and Downgrade to Sell from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/3/3

Simply put: National Australia Bank’s H2 performance was not strong enough. Such is the assessment by analysts at Morgan Stanley.

As the bank’s earnings outlook and capital position are seen as insufficient to drive further share price upside, the broker has downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight.

Commentary highlights NAB’s organic capital generation was weak in 2H25 and its proforma post-dividend CET1 ratio of 11.2% implies no meaningful capital buffer above its stated target.

Morgan Stanley does still think the risk of a dividend cut in FY26 is low. Earnings estimates have been reduced by between -2%-5%. Target falls to $40 from $42.50.

Ord Minnett raises its target for National Australia Bank to $35 from $34 and downgrades to Sell from Lighten on valuation grounds and the broker’s concerns over the regulatory capital position.

The bank’s main challenge, suggests the analyst, is the rapid growth in risk-weighted assets combined with a 75% dividend payout. This has compressed its common equity tier-one ratio to 11.7%, down 31bps half-on-half.

Following the final dividend and without moderating risk-weighted assets (RWA) growth, the CET1 ratio is expected to fall close to the regulatory minimum of 11.25%.

Second-half FY25 cash earnings missed market expectations due to higher bad debt charges, explains the broker, though pre-provision operating profit and the final dividend were in line.

The analyst highlights the net interest margin (NIM) widened 8bps to 1.78%, ahead of consensus, driven by benefits from the replicating portfolio.

Business lending rose 5.3% half-on-half, with growth across multiple sectors, but asset quality weakened as non-performing loans increased to 1.55% of total loans, explains Ord Minnett.

STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED ((SDF)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Steadfast Group’s September quarter update included a downgrade to FY26 premium rate growth guidance to 1-2% from 3-5%. This reflects a sharper-than-expected slowdown across the insurance cycle, explains Ord Minnett.

While cost savings and bolt-on acquisitions should support full-year earnings, the broker remains cautious given repeated downward revisions to premium growth.

Ord Minnett highlights additional executive risk following CEO Robert Kelly’s temporary stand-down during an external investigation and recent leadership changes.

The broker downgrades its rating to Hold from Buy and lowers its target to $5.80 from $6.65, after lowering FY26-FY28 EPS forecasts by up to -5% to reflect softer pricing trends.

SOVEREIGN METALS LIMITED ((SVM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

In a report assessing the September quarter update for critical mineral developers under its coverage, Macquarie notes despite progress, Sovereign Metals’ Kasiya project is behind schedule.

The broker made the observation based on the lapse of 10m Performance Rights tied to the delayed DFS milestone.

The broker incorporated revised funding assumption and project delays into the forecast, leading to a 30% improvement in loss for FY27 but a -30% decline in FY27 earnings, and a -87% cut to FY28 earnings.

Target cut by -35% to $0.65 from $1.00. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=212,143,172,103,247,251,171,138&h0=132,142,172,108,167,146,28,176&s0=11,25,44,52,35,37,5,34″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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