Weekly Reports | 10:22 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday August 18 to Friday August 22, 2025
Total Upgrades: 16
Total Downgrades: 35
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 59.33%; Hold 31.93%; Sell 8.75%
In the second last week of the reporting season, ending Friday, August 22, 2025, FNArena tracked sixteen upgrades and thirty-five downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
During results season, this article aims to provide commentary on the tables below while also complementing FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor, which keeps track of all the beats, misses, and in-line results at https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/
In common with the Monitor, the tables reflect earnings ‘beats’ for the likes of Baby Bunting, Autosports Group, Monadelphous Group, Peter Warren Automotive, Super Retail, and Codan. ‘Misses’ are evident for Audinate Group, James Hardie Industries, HMC Capital, CSL, Reliance Worldwide, DigiCo Infrastructure REIT, and BlueScope Steel.
Post in-line results, a2 Milk Co garnered three upgrades, as did Monadelphous. Multiple downgrades have followed result releases by BHP Group, Goodman Group, Iluka Resources, Magellan Financial, James Hardie, CSL, and Reliance Worldwide.
The FY25 results release from CSL sparked a material share price fall.
Ord Minnett pointed to weakness in the company’s key immunoglobulin market, ramped-up competition in the specialty products segment, and US-led softness in its Seqirus vaccine division.
The broker also noted a “confounding” plan to separate the vaccine business, and a sweeping restructure of R&D and the broader business operating model to deliver targeted cost savings, which the analysts viewed as optimistic.
For a deeper explanation see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/21/earnings-result-leaves-csl-bloodied/
This week’s story on Goodman Group by FNArena explains how an underwhelming FY25 result has some worried, but brokers praised a prudent, steady as she goes approach, albeit valuation is still an issue. For more: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/08/25/relax-goodmans-playing-the-long-game/
The size of percentage rises in average target prices in the table below outweigh falls, with the latter a very accurate indicator of earnings “misses,” which account for the first nine positions in the list.
For target price increases, six of the ten corresponded to earnings ‘beats', three followed in response to in-line results. The notable exception is ARB Corp with a ‘miss’.
While the analysts at Citi lowered their FY26 and FY27 profit forecasts for ARB by -7% and -10%, respectively, the target was raised to $45.17 from $38.70, with earnings downgrades offset by higher peer and market multiples ascribed to the stock.
UBS noted a slight miss for ARB versus consensus, but assessed it a “commendable” result given the challenging trading conditions, while Macquarie flagged upside should management improve pricing, forex exposure, and costs.
Also relevant during the reporting season for ARB Corp and others, when it comes to rises in average earnings forecasts, increases generally outweigh declines, but we’re no longer comparing apples with apples, as some of the upward moves stem from brokers rolling forward their financial models to FY26 forecasts (companies having released FY25 financials).
Healius sits in the week's Top Ten for earnings upgrades but also in the top 10 falls in average target price.
Despite a -33% reduction in target by Macquarie to 80c, the broker raised its EPS forecasts for FY26 and FY27 by 36% and 9%, respectively, to reflect an increased EBIT margin in FY27 closer to management guidance.
The analyst continues to see headwinds for Helius. Medicare Benefits Schedule fee reductions are expected to pressure volumes, requiring substantial cost savings and efficiency improvements will be needed to lift the EBIT margins.
Despite not reporting so far in August, Pexa Group and Chalice Mining appear in the earnings downgrade table.
UBS increased its target for Chalice Mining to $1.70 from $1.00 after raising its long-term palladium price forecasts to US$1,400/oz from US$1,100/oz.
The broker also highlighted a key upcoming catalyst via release of the pre-feasibility study for the company’s flagship nickel-copper-platinum group element (PGE) discovery, Gonneville, within the Julimar Complex in Western Australia.
This study has been deferred to the December quarter to incorporate improved recovery work and assess the potential inclusion of an iron ore by-product stream.
UBS analysts don’t yet include the iron ore byproduct in forecasts but have updated their base case to a larger and longer life, 5-10mtpa open pit only project from a 2-4mtpa high grade (selective open pit and underground) project.
After receiving the largest fall in average earnings forecast in the prior week, solely due to a general update of Morgans across its Oil & Gas sector coverage, eagle-eyed readers will have seen Amplitude tops the earnings upgrade table below.
Last week’s article noted Amplitude remains Morgans’ sole top pick among small caps in the sector. The analyst remained just as enthusiastic after FY25 results, noting the key change has been the significant operational progress at Orbost in the Gippsland Basin, with recent momentum beyond nameplate capacity.
This broker now has greater confidence in management’s ability to manage debt through the next phase of growth in the Otway Basin. Here, the drilling of the first well starts in the current quarter, followed by two more in 2026.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 59.33% of the total, versus 31.93% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.75%.
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