Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 11-04-25

This story features DATA#3 LIMITED., and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DTL

The company is included in ASX200, ASX300, ALL-ORDS and ALL-TECH

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 7 to Friday April 11, 2025
Total Upgrades: 15
Total Downgrades: 13
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.90%; Hold 31.39%; Sell 6.72%

For the week ended Friday, April 11, 2025, FNArena tracked fifteen upgrades and thirteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

After several brokers downgraded commodity price forecasts, reductions in average target prices and average earnings forecasts materially outpaced increases as illustrated in the tables below.

Concentrating first on Industrials, HMC Capital received a -19% decrease in target price after Bell Potter and Morgans lowered their respective targets to $8.15 and $5.30 from $12.90 and $10.50.

HMC is Australia’s leading diversified alternative asset manager with scalable growth platforms across real estate, private equity, energy transition, value-add infrastructure, and private credit.

Unfortunately, the Digital Infrastructure division has been negatively impacted by the pull back in data centre demand/tariff impacts, implying slower leasing ramp-up and cost inflation, explained Bell Potter.

The analysts now have lower expectations for externally managed REIT acquisitions, particularly the Digico Infrastructure REIT where the broker has reduced assumed acquisitions in FY26 to zero from $500m.

A slower overall funds under management (FUM) rollout is also assumed by the broker with the target for $50bn of funds under management (FUM) pushed further out from 2030.

While the stock price has remained under pressure as this FUM target is called into question, Morgans believes the stock is currently trading at fair value.

Bell Potter also reminded investors HMC now has breadth in segments which it didn’t have just one year ago, and twice the FUM.

Diversified automotive parts company, Amotiv, and provider of wealth management solutions, Netwealth Group, also received material downgrades to their average target price last week.

Morgans lowered its target for Amotiv to $10.75 from $12.95 after management (on April 4) downgraded FY25 guidance to a “marginal” earnngs (EBITA) decline (from growth) and pointed to group US sales exposure (i.e. tariff impacted) of around -8%.

While uncertainties around tariffs increase near-term risk, in Citi’s view, management noted an immaterial impact in FY25. The company’s tariff response will include re-sourcing of finished goods, re-pricing, and use of alternative manufacturing and supply locations.

Netwealth Group’s March quarter business update broadly met expectations by Citi, UBS, and Bell Potter, yet Friday’s research update by Ord Minnett dimmed the mood.

During the current market volatility, Ord Minnett reminded investors platform operators like Netwealth, Hub24, and Praemium should be viewed as market cyclicals.

Fund flows, funds under administration metrics, and valuation multiples are all closely tied to broader market sentiment, highlighted the broker.

For both Netwealth Group and Hub24, the analyst suggested FY25 and FY26 price-to-earnings multiples of circa 50 times or more are unsustainably high. For the former, the broker’s target was lowered to $15.40 from $33.00 and the rating downgraded to Lighten from Accumulate.

On the flipside, Abacus Storage King’s average target price jumped by over 7% last week after receipt of a takeover bid for the shares not already owned by Ki Corporation, owned by South African billionaire Nathan Kirsh’s family office, and US-listed Public Storage, one of the largest storage owners and operators globally.

 If the deal proceeds, Ki Corporation will own 50% of Abacus Storage and Public Storage the other 50%.

For broker views on the takeover proposal refer to this week’s article by FNArena titled ‘Abacus Counts Takeover Benefits’.

Staying with Industrials, the percentage fall in average earnings forecasts for Serko and Megaport should be ignored due to small forecast numbers and a data input glitch, respectively.

In fact, Citi was positive on Serko for the second half of FY25 given Booking.com has experienced an acceleration in growth to over 800,000 business-registered companies.

Serko powers Booking.com for Business using its travel management software, Zeno, to streamline corporate travel.

Turning to the Resources sector, Regis Resources headlines the increase in target price list below after releasing positive third quarter results last week, along with more upbeat gold price forecasts by brokers.

Total gold production of 89.7koz in the quarter beat Morgans’ forecast of 86.8koz, while cash generation of $138m raised the total cash and bullion position to $367m at the end of March, leaving Regis debt-free after repaying $300m debt during the quarter.

The company is now on track to achieve FY25 guidance, according to Macquarie.

Morgan Stanley’s commodity price review also resulted in a new target for Regis of $4.05, up from $3.35, after EPS estimates for FY25 and FY26 were raised by 62% and 148%, respectively.

With recession becoming a realistic bear case, the broker noted gold should be an outperformer, though the commodity and gold shares can sometimes fall initially alongside other asset classes, as they are used to provide liquidity.

Regis also appears third on the positive change to earnings forecast table behind Capstone Copper and Iluka Resources.

While the increase in forecast for Capstone appears to be a glitch as both Macquarie and Citi lowered forecasts, Macquarie did highlight the company is trading on an implied copper price of US$3.25/lb when the spot price is trading around US$3.92/lb, making the stock an opportunistic Buy.

By contrast, Citi has opened a 90-day downside watch on the stock given its high leverage to copper prices, even though the analyst expects the company will reiterate guidance at upcoming first quarter results.

Regarding Illuka Resources, Ord Minnett felt the company will be a potential longer-term beneficiary after China’s move to restrict exports of seven rare earths and permanent magnets in response to the Trump tariffs, which may cause heavy rare earth oxide (HREO) prices to rise.

In the same research report on the Rare Earth sector, Ord Minnett downgraded Lynas Rare Earths to Hold from Buy following recent share price gains, while retaining a $7.80 target.

Bell Potter also felt the valuation for Lynas was overextended and lowered its target to $6.50 from $7.30 and downgraded to Sell from Hold. The current share price is factoring in a US$99kg neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) price when spot is currently around US$59/kg, explained the analysts.

Common names in the negative change to target and earnings tables for commodity-related stocks include Viva Energy, Mineral Resources, Coronado Global Resources and Deep Yellow.

Macquarie downgraded its ratings for Viva Energy and Ampol to Neutral from Outperform due to lower assumed refining margins resulting from higher-than-expected US tariffs weighing on the outlook for oil demand. Morgan Stanley’s forecasts also fell for both companies after a marking-to market exercise.

In the lithium space, should prices remain around US$800/t or fall further, Morgans warned balance sheet pressure could emerge for Mineral Resources (and Liontown Resources), based on the broker’s scenario analysis. Lower iron ore shipments and lower mining services volumes are also forecast for the third quarter of FY25 due to the impacts of weather and haul road interruptions.

Among other brokers, Citi forecast lithium demand will be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Conversely, the analysts at Macquarie see lithium as a potential beneficiary if escalating trade tensions pushes China to stimulate electric vehicle consumption.

Unlike Mineral Resources and Liontown Resources, Morgan suggested Pilbara Minerals is insulated from balance sheet pressure until at least FY28. For this period, in almost every lithium price scenario above US$650/t, the broker forecasts the company will remain in a net cash position.

Despite this assertion, the broker reduced its target for Pilbara Minerals to $2.40 from $3.10 after the analyst reduced lithium spodumene and lithium hydroxide price forecasts.

Speaking of lithium, both Citi and Morgan Stanley lowered earnings forecasts for IGO Ltd but upgraded on valuation to Buy and Equal-Weight, respectively.

For Coronado Global resources. Macquarie slashed its target by -25% to 30 cents on higher funding costs and after applying a lower valuation multiple but upgraded to Neutral after the recent share price selloff.

On the uranium front, average earnings forecasts were lowered for Deep Yellow after management announced a deferral to the final investment decision on the Tumas project in Namibia as the current soft pricing outlook for uranium is deemed insufficient to encourage development.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.90% of the total, versus 31.39% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.72%.

Upgrade

DATA#3 LIMITED. ((DTL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/0

UBS has upgraded Data#3 to Buy from Neutral following a -13% share price pullback, which it views as unwarranted given the company’s strong fundamentals and limited macro exposure.

UBS has cut FY26 earnings forecasts by -9% due to softer government and enterprise IT spending and changes to Microsoft incentives, but still expects long-term EPS growth of 10% annually through to FY29.

The broker sees Data#3’s defensive revenue base (55% government, 70% recurring) as a key strength and believes its valuation is attractive versus a 5-year PE average of 27x.

The price target is unchanged at $8.10. Forecasts for FY25-27 have been lowered.

FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/5/0

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners’ cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The analyst views the weakness in iron ore prices as reasonably priced into Fortescue’s share price, while the company continues to generate robust cash flow. The ramp-up of Iron Bridge is expected to improve the company’s iron ore grade.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS forecasts by -10% and -9% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

Fortescue is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight with the target price cut to $16.60 from $18.15.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -10% for FY25 and -6% for FY26.

Target price cut to $16.60 from $18.15. Overweight rating retained.

GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Goodman Group, the broker reckons the negative sentiment towards data centres is overdone.

With the share price retracing to the March 2024 level, the broker sees a buying opportunity, noting Goodman Group is one of the highest-quality exposures among its REIT coverage.

Upgrade to Add from Hold. Target price cut to $35.30 from $38.00 as the broker moderated earnings growth expectations.

Transfer of coverage to Liam Schofield.

HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Citi acknowledges net inflows could be weaker than anticipated for wealth platforms, as advisers and clients focus on managing current conditions, slowing transitions to Hub24 and Netwealth Group ((NWL)).

With the ASX200 down -9% year-to-date, Citi reduces FY25 funds under administration for both companies by -6%, partially offset by higher revenue margins from increased trading revenues, improved cash balances, and fee-tiering for administration.

Nevertheless, the broker upgrades both stocks to Buy, with a lower target price for Hub at $71.50, down -16%.

The analyst notes that structural growth in the overall platform industry will continue, supported by flows from industry funds.

See also HUB downgrade.

INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED ((IAG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/0

UBS has upgraded Insurance Australia Group to Buy from Neutral, while trimming its price target to $8.30 from $8.50, citing improved value and potential upside to second-half insurance trading ratios and cash earnings.

The broker questions whether the insurer’s 32.5% reinsurance quota share (RI QS) is delivering the intended 5% margin benefit and sees potential for earnings uplift if unwound.

UBS estimates EPS could rise 7.5% on a pro forma basis if the RI QS is fully removed. Additionally, the expense ratio remains significantly above that of Suncorp, but UBS sees a clear path to close this gap through cost-out initiatives already underway.

FY25-26 earnings forecasts have been lowered slightly.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi and Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting range bound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

Rating for IGO Ltd upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target cut to $4.00 from $5.30.

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners’ cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

IGO Ltd is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight, while the target price slips to $3.50 from $3.85.

The analyst believes the positive outlook for exposure to clean energy materials is more than reflected in the share price at current levels, though remains cautious on higher capex, a slower ramp-up at Kwinana, and volume growth at Greenbushes.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS estimates by -44% for FY25 and -30% for FY26.

JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/2/2

JB Hi-Fi is expected to announce a 3Q25 trading update in May, and Bell Potter believes the company will be able to achieve most of the growth noted at the start of the quarter, due to easier comps on the previous year.

The analyst notes tariffs and global uncertainty have seen some price increases feeding through, such as Beko up 5%6% and Smeg from April to May due to a weaker AUD.

Bell Potter stresses the company has 100% exposure to A&NZ and thus no direct impact from new US tariffs.

No change to EPS estimates. Target price at $99 remains. The stock is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners’ cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

The broker upgrades Northern Star Resources to Overweight from Equal-weight, with a target price increase to $20.50 from $18.40.

Morgan Stanley highlights the expansion of the KCGM mill, which is under construction and will scale production, alongside development of the Fimiston underground resource.

The analyst raises EPS estimates by 10% for FY25 and 87% for FY26.

NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Citi acknowledges net inflows could be weaker than anticipated for wealth platforms, as advisers and clients focus on managing current conditions, slowing transitions to Hub24 ((HUB)) and Netwealth Group.

With the ASX200 down -9% year-to-date, Citi reduces FY25 funds under administration for both companies by -6%, partially offset by higher revenue margins from increased trading revenues, improved cash balances, and fee-tiering for administration.

Nevertheless, the broker upgrades both stocks to Buy, with a lower target price for Netwealth at $26.50, down -14%.

The analyst notes that structural growth in the overall platform industry will continue, supported by flows from industry funds.

See also NWL downgrade.

PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/1/1

Citi expects lithium demand to be hurt due to downside risk for global auto sales in a recessionary backdrop from US President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Additional headwind is a likely drop in ESS demand as China exported 20% of ESS battery to the US.

The broker cut the long-term price for lithium to US$1,400/t from US$1,500 while expecting range bound prices this year with a 0-3 month target of US$850/t.

The analyst has lowered the target price for all lithium-exposed stocks.

Rating for Pilbara Minerals upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target cut to $1.65 from $2.40.

PANTORO LIMITED ((PNR)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Bell Potter raises the target price for Pantoro to $2.40 from $0.14 (effectively unchanged), reflecting a 17:1 share consolidation.

The broker also upgrades its rating to Hold from Sell on recent share price depreciation in the currently volatile environment for global equities and the gold price due to the imposition and part retraction of Trump tariffs.

PRAEMIUM LIMITED ((PPS)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

During the current market volatility Ord Minnett reminds investors platform operators like Hub24, Netwealth Group, and Praemium should be viewed as market cyclicals.

Fund flows, funds under administration metrics, and valuation multiples are all closely tied to broader market sentiment, highlights the broker.

While the analyst slashes target prices for Hub24 and Netwealth Group (due to unsustainably high multiples) and downgrades their ratings, the 90 cent target for Praemium remains and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on valuation.

While Hub24 and Netwealth are operationally superior businesses, in the broker’s view, Praemium is trading on a multiple around half of its larger peers.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Macquarie highlights copper prices have fallen to US$3.92/lb on global uncertainties, leading to sell-off in copper equities.

The broker notes Sandfire Resources is trading on an implied copper price of US$3.05/lb, which makes it an opportunistic buy.

Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $10.80 from $10.40.

TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/5/0

Bell Potter upgrades TechnologyOne to Buy from Hold, with a downward move in the target price to $29 from $30.50 due to a lowering of the company’s valuation.

The broker highlights the company is not impacted by tariffs, and revenues are viewed as defensive and recurring.

The first half results announcement in May is believed to be a potential catalyst for the share price.

Bell Potter continues to forecast profit before tax growth of 19% in FY25, FY26, and FY27 due to lower-teen revenue growth and margin expansion.

Cash flow is expected to boost the company’s cash balance to over $300m by the end of FY25, post funding of the CourseLoop acquisition.

Downgrade

AMPOL LIMITED ((ALD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Macquarie downgrades both Ampol and Viva Energy ((VEA)) to Neutral from Outperform due to lower assumed refining margins.

The analyst explains higher than expected US tariffs will result in a weaker outlook for oil demand with a flow-on impact on refining margins.

The broker lowers EPS estimates for Ampol by -10% and -12% for FY25/FY26 on forecast refining margins of US$8.44/US$10.11 per bbl, respectively, with ongoing high capex of around -$600m in 2025.

Target price falls -15% to $23.70.

ANSELL LIMITED ((ANN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/6/0

Macquarie has downgraded Ansell to Neutral from Outperform, significantly cutting its price target to $31.05 from $40.30 following the introduction of substantial US tariffs on products from key manufacturing locations.

Ansell expects to offset tariff impacts through pricing, but Macquarie cautiously forecasts only a 75% pass-through, posing potential downside to earnings.

The broker sees Ansell as highly exposed, with 93% of its US supply chain facing tariffs greater than 10%. EPS forecasts have been lowered by -17% and -16% for FY26 and FY27, respectively.

The updated valuation method blends DCF with a sum-of-the-parts approach, reflecting increased near-term uncertainty.

BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED ((BGL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Bellevue Gold shares will remain suspended as the company hasn’t been able to update FY25 production guidance, but it did announce 3Q production was 25.7koz. This was lower than Bell Potter’s forecast of 36koz.

The company also announced a cash outflow of -$32m in 3Q which reduced the cash and bullion balance to $49m.

The broker expects 4Q production to be stronger, but thinks an equity raise is likely before trading recommences. The analyst is forecasting a $150m raise at a -20% discount to the last closing price.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target cut to $1.30 from $2.00.

DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT ((DXI)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Dexus Industria REIT, the broker sees the possibility of share price rising towards NTA.

However, in the short to medium term, the analyst expects the share price to be weighed down by development risks at Jandakot and dilution from the likely sale of the business and technology portfolio.

Downgrade to Hold from Add. Target price cut to $2.60 from $3.16.

Transfer of coverage to Liam Schofield.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 1/3/2

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners’ cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

Evolution Mining is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight, with the target price set at $5.55 from $5.95. The broker views the process plant expansion at Mungari to 4.2mt p.a. as largely priced into the stock.

Morgan Stanley lifts EPS forecasts by 13% for FY25 and 65% for FY26, while remaining cautious on the high valuation.

GARDA PROPERTY GROUP ((GDF)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Morgans believes a falling interest rate cycle and higher construction costs have created an opportunity for A-REITs. In terms of risks, the broker sees the P/NTA discount protecting against downside risks and cashflow growth providing upside.

In the case of Garda Property, however, the broker doesn’t see a catalyst for the share price to converge to NTA in the short to medium term, despite the sale of North Lakes.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Add. Target cut to $1.15 from $1.59.

Transfer of coverage to Leo Partridge.

HUB24 LIMITED ((HUB)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/3/0

During the current market volatility Ord Minnett reminds investors platform operators like Hub24, Netwealth Group, and Praemium should be viewed as market cyclicals.

Fund flows, funds under administration metrics, and valuation multiples are all closely tied to broader market sentiment, highlights the broker.

For Hub24, the broker suggests FY25 and FY26 price-to-earnings multiples of circa 50x times or more are unsustainably high.

Ord Minnett’s target falls to $43.20 from $84.00 and the rating is downgraded to Lighten from Hold following following a transfer of analyst coverage and a mark-to-market analysis.

See also HUB upgrade.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/3

Bell Potter’s forecasts for Lynas Rare Earths’ 3Q25 production and average realised price are in line with consensus, and so are production and sales forecasts for FY26 and FY27.

However, valuation is an issue with the broker noting an average NdPr price of US$65/kg over FY26 and average EV/EBITDA multiple over the past five years results in a valuation of $3.75/share. 

FY25 EPS forecast cut by -42% and FY26 by -19%. The broker doesn’t see balance sheet risk under its commodity price forecasts but warns it could draw attention if NdPr prices don’t recover.

Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold. Target cut to $6.50 from $7.30.

Ord Minnett reckons China’s move to restrict exports of seven rare earths could lift prices of heavy rare earth oxides, but this is uncertain in the absence of full details.

The broker lifted price forecast for Dy-Tb-Y by 2-4% for 2025-26, and cut NdPr price estimates in 2025.

The broker expects HREO producers to be the biggest beneficiaries, with Lynas Rare Earths expected to produce minor Dy+Tb by mid-year and its Texas plant aiming for HREO output by 2027.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy following share price gains.Target unchanged at $7.80.

NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED ((NIC)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Morgan Stanley considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners’ cost curves, alongside changes to commodity price forecasts.

Nickel Industries is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight, with the target price cut to 55c from $1. The broker sees risks related to changes in Indonesian royalties and the potential for a nickel surplus in 2025 due to lower demand from tariffs.

Morgan Stanley lifts the FY25 EPS estimate by 5% and cuts the FY26 forecast by -22%.

NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Downgrade to Lighten from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/5/0

During the current market volatility Ord Minnett reminds investors platform operators like Hub24, Netwealth Group, and Praemium should be viewed as market cyclicals.

Fund flows, funds under administration metrics, and valuation multiples are all closely tied to broader market sentiment, highlights the broker.

For Netwealth Group, the broker suggests FY25 and FY26 price-to-earnings multiples of circa 50x times or more are unsustainably high.

Ord Minnett’s target falls to $15.40 from $33.00 and the rating is downgraded to Lighten from Accumulate following following a transfer of analyst coverage and a mark-to-market analysis.

See also NWL upgrade.

RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Morgan Stanley downgrades Rio Tinto to Equal-weight from Overweight, with a lower target price of $115 from $126, as the broker considers tariffs, possible recessions, and a focus on miners’ cost curves.

The analyst highlights we are moving into a seasonally robust period for iron ore supply, and while stock valuations are not demanding, cost curves are being challenged until the Simandou ramp-up, with nameplate production expected by the end of 2028.

Morgan Stanley estimates around 110mt180mt of production remains at a cash cost above circa US$85US$90/t. China stimulus would offer a boost to iron ore sentiment.

The broker’s EPS estimates are cut by -11% for 2025 and -6% for 2026.

VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((VEA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Macquarie downgrades both Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy to Neutral from Outperform due to lower assumed refining margins.

The analyst explains higher than expected US tariffs will result in a weaker outlook for oil demand with a flow-on impact on refining margins.

The broker lowers EPS estimates for Viva by -28% and -12% for FY25/FY26 on forecast refining margins of US$8.42/US$10.00 per bbl, respectively, with a slower On The Run (OTR) store rollout across the Express network.

Target price falls -39% to $1.70.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=207,141,181,100,237,244,171,131&h0=119,136,159,107,181,135,23,172&s0=10,31,35,43,19,31,4,32″ style=”border:1px solid #000000;”>

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms