Rudi’s View: 29Metals, Calix, Chalice Mining, Incitec Pivot, Telstra & Qantas

This story features AUB GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AUB

In today's update:

-Conviction Calls
-All-Weather Performers
-All-Weather Model Portfolio
-AIA Conference In March

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Happy New Year, and welcome back!

Rudi's View stories won't genuinely return until after Australia Day when the time has arrived to prepare for the February reporting season, but since various lists of top picks and conviction calls have been updated already, I convinced myself to compile the update below.

Enjoy.

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The January update of Morningstar's Best Stock Ideas on the ASX saw three stocks being removed with share prices of both AUB Group ((AUB)) and Viva Energy Group ((VEA)) having appreciated too much to still warrant their nomination, while the days of Link Administration ((LNK)) as an independent listed entity seem numbered following Dye and Durham's formal offer for the whole of the company.

Since no new additions were included, the list of Best Stock Ideas is now left with 13 names, in alphabetical order:

-a2 Milk ((A2M))
-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cimic Group ((CIM))
-G8 Education ((GEM))
-InvoCare ((IVC))
-Lendlease ((LLC))
-Magellan Financial Group ((MFG))
-Southern Cross Media Group ((SXL))
-Westpac ((WBC))
-Whitehaven Coal ((WHC))
-Woodside Petroleum ((WPL))

Analysts at Morningstar cover in excess of 200 companies listed in Australia and/or New Zealand and inclusion in the Best Ideas is always inspired by a (too) cheap valuation, which sometimes translates into an extended membership which might seem endless for investors who do not have the patience.

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Over at Canaccord Genuity, which in Australia has a specific focus on micro-cap and small-cap companies, analysts have selected 26 Top Picks that combined make up this stockbroker's Top Australian Stock Picks for the calendar year ahead.

In alphabetical order:

-Alcidion Group ((ALC))
-Allkem Ltd ((AKE))
-Aroa Biosurgery ((ARX))
-Bellevue Gold ((BGL))
-BWX Ltd ((BWX))
-Calix ((CXL))
-Carnarvon Petroleum ((CVN))
-City Chic Collective ((CCX))
-DDH1 Ltd ((DDH))
-DGL Group ((DHL))
-Dropsuite ((DSE))
-Euro Manganese ((EMN))
-HT&E ((HT1))
-ImpediMed ((IPD))
-Macquarie Telecom ((MAQ))
-Marley Spoon ((MMM))
-Mighty Craft ((MCL))
-OFX Group ((OFX))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-Praemium ((PPS))
-Predictive Discovery ((PDI))
-Secos Group ((SES))
-Superloop ((SLC))
-Top Shelf International ((TSI))
-Toys "R" Us ANZ ((TOY))
-Trajan Group ((TRJ))

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Mining analysts at Macquarie recently expressed their preference for OZ Minerals ((OZL)) and 29Metals ((29M)) for copper exposure, and Mincor Resources ((MCR)) and Panoramic Resources ((PAN)) for exposure to nickel, with Chalice Mining ((CHN)) as the top favourite among local exploration companies.

Among large cap local gold producers, Macquarie's preference remains with Northern Star ((NST)) and Newcrest Mining ((NCM)).

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JP Morgan's target for the ASX200 is 7800 by year-end. Its projection for the S&P500 is slightly better, with the US index expected to rise to 5050 this year, but the MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) might rise by 23% this year if JP Morgan's projections prove correct.

In Australia, JP Morgan's Model Portfolio retains a clear bias towards 'Value'. Largest holdings, relative to index importance, are National Australia Bank ((NAB)), Star Entertainment ((SGR)), Beach Energy ((BPT)), Qantas Airways ((QAN)), Fortescue Metals ((FMG)), and Scentre Group ((SCG)).

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Morgan Stanley's Model Portfolio for Australia shed a few exposures over the holiday period, with Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Downer EDI ((DOW)) no longer represented. In their place came Incitec Pivot ((IPL)), Orica ((ORI)) and Tyro Payments ((TYR)).

Other inclusions are:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank
-Westpac
-Computershare ((CPU))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Scentre Group
-Domino's Pizza ((DMP))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Qantas Airways
-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Sonic Healthcare ((SHL))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-BHP ((BHP))
-29Metals ((29M))
-Alumina Ltd ((AWC))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-OZ Minerals
-Newcrest Mining
-Ampol ((ALD))
-Oil Search ((OSH))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Santos ((STO))
-Worley ((WOR))

Morgan Stanley's Model Portfolio holds 3.90% in cash.

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Morgan Stanley's Focus List for Australia contains 10 members, in alphabetical order:

-APA Group
-BlueScope Steel
-Computershare
-Goodman Group
-Macquarie Group
-Orica
-Qantas Airways
-QBE Insurance
-REA Group
-Telstra

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Finally, but certainly not least, analysts at Bell Potter also selected their favourite sector exposures for calendar year 2022:

-Among banks: ANZ Bank and National Australia Bank
-Listed Investment Companies: Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund ((QRI)), Future Generation Global Investment Co ((FGG)), and WAM Alternative Assets ((WMA))
-Agriculture & FMCG: Bega Cheese ((BGA)), a2 Milk, and Synlait Milk ((SM1))
-Technology: Infomedia ((IFM)), TechnologyOne ((TNE)), and Life360 ((360))
-Accent Group ((AX1)), City Chic Collective, and Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))
-Industrials: DDH1, Calix, Emeco Holdings ((EHL))
-Industrials (continued): Money3 ((MNY)), BWX Ltd, and ikeGPS ((IKE))
-Industrials (continued): Cluey ((CLU)), Coventry Group ((CYG)), and DGL Group
-Healthcare: Kazia Therapeutics ((KZA)), Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)), and Doctor Care Anywhere ((DOC))
-Resources and Precious Metals: Nickel Mines ((NIC)), Regis Resources ((RRL)), and Chalice Mining
-Energy: Cooper Energy ((COE)), and Boss Energy ((BOE))
-Strategic Minerals: Liontown Resources ((LTR)), Lake Resources ((LKE)), and Alpha HPA ((A4N))

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All-Weather Performers

My response to questions about whether I decided to make any changes to my list of All-Weather stocks and other selections I share with FNArena subscribers:

Bapcor ((BAP)) and Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) have now been removed from my lists. I have also moved Seek ((SEK)) from the All-Weathers-with-question-marks to simplify the All-Weathers (no more fundamental questions).

I have decided not to add any more promising upcoming new and exciting business models, as 2022 looks far more challenging than the past five years or so. But other than those changes, I have left my lists untouched.

Always remember: true gold standard businesses like CSL, ResMed ((RMD)), Wesfarmers, etc don't lose their core mettle simply because the share market has a few conniptions.

Paid subscribers have access to a dedicated section on the website: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

All-Weather Model Portfolio

Since late 2014, the FNArena/Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio has been based upon my research into All-Weather stocks on the ASX.

Monthly Portfolio reviews published in 2021:

November: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=5A1F8C7A-D49A-C5ED-550285FB8C63EBD9

October: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=4BA408AC-AF35-78F5-F42D94A2CF808BF1

September: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B6798F75-0375-ACE0-CAB39BEDF04567BE

August: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B674AF06-E339-5816-5FD0DA4AE7D29F80

June/July: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B66CC435-9758-005C-77B2719A92612A9B

May: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B66804C2-BB83-93BF-AEFB5A28EC0E4A5A

April: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B664E73A-FBB4-1456-8EF79590D64EBF29

March: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B66218E0-DB14-B8D4-360E91AE22EA01AC

February: https://www.fnarena.com/downloadfile.php?p=w&n=B65DC629-929F-1743-8FF1EEFE600DF5A8

AIA Conference In March

The Australian Investors Association (AIA) has been organising an annual national conference since the early 1990s, uninterrupted, until covid hit in 2021. There was no event last year due to lockdowns, lack of vaccinations and travel restrictions.

This year's event will have everyone double vaccinated and masked up, but at least this time around investors can listen to what the likes of yours truly have to say about investing in Australian shares and related subjects.

Tickets are still available: https://www.investors.asn.au/events/natioanl/date/177/2022-03-27/2022-03-30

March 27-30, on the Gold Coast, in Queensland.

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

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