Rudi’s View: Arcadium Lithium, Goodman Group, Paladin, Pexa & Treasury Wine

This story features TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TPW

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

As promised in Monday's Weekly Insights, below are the latest Model Portfolio changes observed. But first, let's have a look at Jarden's best ideas among ASX-listed smaller cap companies ("Emerging Companies").

Jarden's Top Pick remains Temple & Webster ((TPW)), regardless of the shares having rallied already.

Other Key Picks are:

-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Siteminder ((SDR))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))

In extension, specific sector analysts have highlighted their specific convictions for:

-Inghams Group ((ING))
-Light & Wonder ((LNW))
-NRW Holdings ((NWH))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-National Storage ((NSR))
-Ingenia Communities Group ((INA))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Capricorn Metals ((CMM))
-Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))

****

Morgan Stanley's Australia Macro+ Focus List can remain untouched for extended times, but the recent update has revealed three changes were made on April 19th.

The three newcomers are Origin Energy ((ORG)), Paladin Energy ((PDN)), and Suncorp Group ((SUN)).

Have disappeared: Altium ((ALU)), Goodman Group ((GMG)), and Telstra ((TLS)). Altium, of course, is being acquired, but the removal of Goodman Group, in light of the research published on Monday, will have some eyebrows lifting (see also bottom of today's story). Goodman Group remains included in the Model Portfolio, see further below.

The remaining seven inclusions are:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morgan Stanley also runs a Macro+ Model Portfolio which, according to the latest update, consists of the following 32 constituents:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-Macquarie Group
-QBE Insurance
-Suncorp Group
-Goodman Group
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((SGP)
-Aristocrat Leisure
-Car Group
-Domino's Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Treasury Wine Estates
-CSL
-ResMed ((RMD))
-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Origin Energy
-Telstra
-Transurban Group ((TCL))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))
-Paladin Energy
-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy

****

Wilsons' Focus Portfolio equally experienced a number of changes. That Portfolio's largest overweight remains towards growth companies, including a large overweight to the healthcare sector. The largest underweight allocation remains for local banks. The Portfolio also holds a slight overweight allocation to resources, but this is due to "active positioning" in green metals and energy (underweight iron ore).

Changes made in April mostly involved adding extra shares to existing allocations to Xero ((XRO)), Netwealth Group ((NWL)), and Woodside Energy. The sole removal was APA Group ((APA)) with portfolio managers referring to "growing risks of a more heavy-handed regulatory regime and mounting pressure on the company's balance sheet".

In terms of individual stocks, the Focus Portfolio encompasses the following:

-BHP Group, Woodside Energy, Evolution Mining ((EVN)), Mineral Resources ((MIN)), Arcadium Lithium ((LTM)), Sandfire Resources ((SFR)), South32

-ANZ Bank, National Australia Bank, Westpac

-Macquarie Group, Aristocrat Leisure, Collins Foods ((CKF)), Breville Group ((BRG)), Worley ((WOR)), Webjet ((WEB))

-Xero, Netwealth Group, IDP Education ((IEL)), Telix Pharmaceutcals ((TLX)), Steadfast Group ((SDF))

-CSL, Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), The Lottery Corp, ResMed, Amcor ((AMC))

-Goodman Group, HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))

****

Macquarie Wealth's recommended Growth Portfolio currently includes the following stocks:

-Goodman Group
-Seek ((SEK))
-Aristocrat leisure
-Northern Star ((NST))
-CSL
-Computershare ((CPU))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-The Lottery Corp
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-Mineral Resources
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Steadfast Group
-Arcadium Lithium
-ResMed
-Pexa Group ((PXA))
-Treasury Wine Estates
-Viva Energy ((VEA))

Macquarie Wealth's recommended Income Portfolio currently has the following composition:

-Suncorp Group
-Telstra
-National Australia Bank
-Westpac Bank
-ANZ Bank
-BHP Group
-CommBank
-Premier Investments ((PMV))
-Coles Group
-Viva Energy
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-APA Group
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Deterra Royalties ((DRR))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-GUD Holdings ((GUD))
-Charter Hall Retail REIT ((CQR))
-Amcor

To read more about Morgan Stanley's latest in-depth research into data centres in Australia: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2024/05/08/rudis-view-opportunity-in-data-centres/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

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P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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