Rudi’s View: NextDC, QBE, Superloop & Woodside

This story features AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIA

The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Morningstar has added Auckland Airport ((AIA)) to its selection of Best Ideas list for June.

Shares in the New Zealand airport have been treading water ever since a valuation re-rating was stopped in early 2016. It had been a local fund manager’s favourite, but shareholders have seen dividend payouts completely evaporate for a while post covid.

Financial numbers are on the up again, but there’s also a major capex burden coming up plus income from aeronautical charges is expected to drop in FY26.

Morningstar’s view is the market is being too cautious and with the shares seen trading some -17% below its own fair value estimate, shares in Auckland Airport have now been added to what is essentially its curated list of high conviction recommendations.

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This month’s update on stockbroker Morgans’ Best Ideas has seen the removal of Maas Group ((MGH)), HomeCo Daily Needs REIT ((HDN)) and Avita Medical ((AVH)). Their memberships have been take up by James Hardie ((JHX)), Goodman Group ((GMG)), and Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC)).

For the full list of Morgans’ 30 Best Ideas, prior to the latest changes, see: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/10/rudis-view-best-buys-conviction-calls-on-asx/

Also, for those who still are not certain whether AI is the trend that remains in place for longer, if not much longer, UBS has elevated NextDC ((NXT)) to its APAC Key Call list. See also Goodman Group above.

Morgans has also updated on its key stock picks in the ASX-listed technology space, where current favouritism resides with WiseTech Global ((WTC)) and Megaport ((MP1)).

Other key picks are Car Group ((CAR)) in media, Superloop ((SLC)) among telcos and Light & Wonder ((LNW)) in gaming.

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The post-February corporate results season in Australia has been “mixed” at best, but with some notable solid performances on one side of the ledger as well as numerous disappointments and profit warnings. Both extremes have led to some re-weightings for the Model Portfolio at Wilsons.

First the good news. TechnologyOne ((TNE)) has become a genuine super-performer in the local tech sector, or in Wilsons’ words: The one Technology company that keeps delivering. This has resulted in an increased exposure for the Portfolio.

James Hardie’s quarterly was a disappointment. Wilsons’ Portfolio has in response scaled back its exposure.

Earlier, Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) disappointed and Xero ((XRO)) confirmed its momentum and neither result has triggered any changes for the Portfolio.

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RBC Capital’s Global Energy Best Ideas List continues to feature Woodside Energy ((WDS)). Australia’s largest energy producer also presented at the RBC Global Energy, Power & Infrastructure Conference recently and the analysts were kind enough to share some of the multiple positives that emerged from that event, including:

-Woodside believes it is advantaged over other potential US LNG project developments through the strength of its balance sheet, and significant LNG plant construction and operating experience.

-Louisiana LNG is viewed as an attractive project for Woodside because it has a fixed rate, lump sum contract with a high quality contractor (Bechtel), it balances Woodside’s Global LNG portfolio, and adds significant Atlantic Basin LNG market exposure that creates new LNG market opportunities.

-Woodside does not expect US trade tariffs to have a major impact on the Louisiana LNG project. The project has a foreign trade zone exemption, which means tariffs are not payable until the equipment is put into operation (2029). Around 12% of the project materials are to be sourced from outside of the United States. No steel is to be sourced from China, with the major steel components coming from Turkey and the Middle East.

-The Sangomar offshore Senegal oil project has performed exceptionally well for Woodside since it came on stream in July 2024. Woodside has increased reserves and resources for both the main S500 reservoir and the S400. The company sees a Sangomar Phase 2 expansion possibly being supported by good early results from the S400 sands, although longer term evaluation is needed from the existing injector-producer pairs for support.

-Woodside Louisiana LNG project capex exposure has been reduced through project structuring that Woodside noted allows for the sale of LNG project infrastructure (Stonepeak has purchased 40% equity in InfraCo) and overall project equity (Aramco is in discussion to buy equity in HoldCo, along with LNG offtake). More project equity sell downs are planned in HoldCo.

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In line with market sentiment in 2025, analysts at Citi have identified eight small and mid-cap ideas that provide investors with exposure to companies with high growth through disruptive strategies, and largely removed from “US tariff noise”.

-Beacon Lighting ((BLX))
-Ingenia Communities ((INA))
-Megaport ((MP1))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-Superloop ((SLC))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-The a2 Milk Co ((A2M))
-Tuas Ltd ((TUA))

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If rising bond yields and their impact on the local share market unnerve you, Macquarie has done the research and identified some ASX-listings that are most at risk from rising bond yields (also taking into account operational risks given the underlying trend in earnings forecasts remains negative in Australia).

First mentioned are, of course, your typical bond proxies, including Endeavour Group ((EDV)), Dexus ((DXS)), APA Group ((APA)), Amcor ((AMC)), and Woolworths Group ((WOW)).

Among small caps, Macquarie has enlisted Centuria Office REIT ((COF)), Growthpoint Properties Australia ((GOZ)), Cromwell Property ((CMW)), Region Group ((RGN)), and BWP Trust  ((BWP)) — all are REITs.

For potential beneficiaries, Macquarie highlights QBE Insurance ((QBE)), Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), Suncorp ((SUN)), Light & Wonder ((LNW)), and BlueScope Steel ((BSL)), plus small caps AUB Group ((AUB)), News Corp ((NWS)), and Helia Group ((HLI)).

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Crestone’s Best Sector Ideas:

-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone’s selection for sustainable income:

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra Group ((TLS))

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Four ASX-listed companies feature on Goldman Sachs’ Conviction Buy list for the APAC region:

-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Worley ((WOR))

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Jarden’s monthly update on Emerging Companies (i.e. smaller caps) showcases 16 stock picks in Australia; one less than in the month prior. The following seven have been highlighted as representing the potential highest return, ranked in order of total shareholder return:

-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))

Apart from their order of appearance, nothing has changed to that selection. The other ten:

-Arena REIT ((ARF))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Michael Hill ((MHJ))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))

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Morgan Stanley’s Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Santos ((STO))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

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Morgan Stanley’s Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Eagers Automotive ((APE))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Xero ((XRO))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

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Morningstar’s list of Best Buy Ideas before the addition of Auckland Airport (see above):

-APA Group ((APA))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Domino’s Pizza Enterprises ((DMP))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-TPG Telecom ((TPG))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

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Shaw and Partners’ Large Caps Model Portfolio:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-South32 ((S32))

Shaw and Partners’ emerging companies Top Picks:

-AML3D ((AL3))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Humm Group ((HUM))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Southern Cross Electrical ((SXE))

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UBS‘s portfolio sector recommendations currently have only two segments on Overweight’; Insurance and TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunication).

All of Banks, Energy and Small Caps are Underweight’. Everything else sits on Neutral’ (i.e. their weighting is recommended to mirror the local index) with Healthcare being upgraded in April and Industrials downgraded.

UBS’s lists of Most Preferred and Least Preferred ASX-listed exposures currently consist of the following:

Most Preferred

Resources
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Northern Star ((NST))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))

Financials & REITs
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Lifestyle Communities ((LIC))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-QBE Insurance Group ((QBE))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))

Industrials
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Light & Wonder ((LNW))
-REA Group ((REA))
-SGH Ltd ((SGH))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Xero ((XRO))
-Life360 ((360))

Least Preferred

-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Reece ((REH))

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Wilsons’ Focus Portfolio currently contains the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Mac Copper ((MAC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Sandfire Resources ((SFR))
-Santos ((STO))
-South32 ((S32))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))

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Wilsons’ analysts selected the following five as Key Investment Opportunities:

-ResMed ((RMD))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Xero ((XRO))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

Wilsons’ High conviction investment ideas across the industrials (ex resources) part of the market; typically businesses with attractive structural growth prospects:

-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Nanosonics ((NAN))
-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

Wilsons’ number one speculative idea:

-Clarity Pharmaceuticals ((CU6))

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Paying subscribers have 24/7 access to my curated lists, including All-Weather Performers at: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

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P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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