Rudi’s View: Amcor, GQG, IPH, Data#3 & Qualitas

This story features TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TLS

The company is included in ASX20, ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Defensive stocks look fully valued, argue equity market strategists at Bell Potter, but as is so often the case, there are always laggards that might now represent better value.

Oh. Did I give away the conclusion from Bell Potter’s latest strategy update already?

I’ll keep it short then. Bell Potter suggests Telstra ((TLS)), Transurban ((TCL)) and the supermarket operators have already enjoyed most of the re-rating that should be expected, with Coles Group ((COL)) preferred over Woolworths Group ((WOW)).

The suggestion is investors looking for defensive exposure in their portfolio should now be considering Amcor ((AMC)) instead, or APA Group ((APA)), or Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)). The latter is seen as representing “an attractive opportunity” despite recent earnings downgrades.

Generally speaking, the strategists are of the view we have now moved past the peak in tariffs uncertainty, and the outlook should only improve from here onwards, making “expensive defensives” a less attractive option.

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Equally noteworthy: Citi’s US strategists recently raised their year-end S&P500 target to 6,300. Their colleagues in Europe have set a year-end Stoxx 600 target of 570, implying similar, low-single-digit upside.

Within the European market, the preference is for beaten up Cyclicality. Catalysts in favour of continued rerating include: visibility on US trade policy, delayed implementation of Section 899, ongoing ECB rate cuts, and macro data improvements.

Citi’s portfolio suggestions in Europe are Overweight in Tech, Travel and Leisure, Autos and Real Estate, as well as in traditional Defensives (Health Care, Personal Care). Most preferred countries are the UK, France and Germany.

Over in the USA, the preference is with IT, Health Care, Communication Services, and Financials. Energy has been downgraded to a Neutral exposure, while Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Consumer Staples, and Materials all remain inside the Underweight basket.

Also, Citi’s so-called Bear Market Checklist suggests there’s currently no bear market in sight, nowhere.

Offsetting Citi’s liking for cyclicals, UBS is not. UBS sees weakening economic momentum ahead and the next rate cut by the Federal Reserve not due until the September meeting.

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Strategy update by Longview Economics: “We recommend beginning to rebuild a modest tactical overweight in US equities (having moved NEUTRAL in May).

“With that, global central banks are cutting interest rates rapidly, which should drive a cyclical re-acceleration in the global economy (on a 12 month view).”

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Stock pickers at Morgan Stanley have highlighted seven smaller cap companies in Australia that are non-consensus (“left field”) but with a meaningful chance of achieving a positive return for investors willing to look through the current fog that is hanging over them.

Stocks selected:

-Gentrack ((GTK))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-IPH Ltd ((IPH))
-Generation Development Group ((GDG))
-Data#3 ((DTL))
-McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS))
-Smartgroup Corp ((SIQ))

As reported in last week’s edition, analysts at Citi have identified eight small and mid-cap ideas that provide investors with exposure to companies with high growth through disruptive strategies, and largely removed from “US tariff noise”.

-Beacon Lighting ((BLX))
-Ingenia Communities ((INA))
-Megaport ((MP1))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-Superloop ((SLC))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-The a2 Milk Co ((A2M))
-Tuas Ltd ((TUA))

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Jarden’s monthly update on Emerging Companies (i.e. smaller caps) showcases 16 stock picks in Australia; unchanged from the update in May. The following seven have been highlighted as representing the potential highest return, ranked in order of total shareholder return:

-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))

Apart from their order of appearance, nothing has changed to that selection. In contrast, the other ten have seen a number of changes:

-Arena REIT ((ARF))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Michael Hill ((MHJ))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Symal Group ((SYL))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))

Since the May update, Symal Group has been added, while Jumbo Interactive ((JIN)) has been removed.

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Crestone’s Best Sector Ideas:

-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone’s selection for sustainable income:

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra Group ((TLS))

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Four ASX-listed companies feature on Goldman Sachs’ Conviction Buy list for the APAC region:

-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Worley ((WOR))

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Morgan Stanley’s Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Santos ((STO))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

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Morgan Stanley’s Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Eagers Automotive ((APE))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Xero ((XRO))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

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Morningstar’s list of Best Buy Ideas: 

-APA Group ((APA))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Auckland International Airport ((AIA))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Domino’s Pizza Enterprises ((DMP))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-TPG Telecom ((TPG))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

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Shaw and Partners’ Large Caps Model Portfolio:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-South32 ((S32))

Shaw and Partners’ emerging companies Top Picks:

-AML3D ((AL3))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Humm Group ((HUM))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Southern Cross Electrical ((SXE))

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UBS‘s portfolio sector recommendations currently have only two segments on Overweight’; Insurance and TMT (Technology, Media & Telecommunication).

All of Banks, Energy and Small Caps are Underweight’. Everything else sits on Neutral’ (i.e. their weighting is recommended to mirror the local index) with Healthcare being upgraded in April and Industrials downgraded.

UBS’s lists of Most Preferred and Least Preferred ASX-listed exposures currently consist of the following:

Most Preferred

Resources
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Northern Star ((NST))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))

Financials & REITs
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Lifestyle Communities ((LIC))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-QBE Insurance Group ((QBE))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))

Industrials
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Light & Wonder ((LNW))
-REA Group ((REA))
-SGH Ltd ((SGH))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Xero ((XRO))
-Life360 ((360))

Least Preferred

-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Reece ((REH))

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Wilsons’ Focus Portfolio currently contains the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Mac Copper ((MAC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Sandfire Resources ((SFR))
-Santos ((STO))
-South32 ((S32))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))

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Wilsons’ analysts selected the following five as Key Investment Opportunities:

-ResMed ((RMD))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Xero ((XRO))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

Wilsons’ High conviction investment ideas across the industrials (ex resources) part of the market; typically businesses with attractive structural growth prospects:

-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Nanosonics ((NAN))
-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

Wilsons’ number one speculative idea:

-Clarity Pharmaceuticals ((CU6))

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Paying subscribers have 24/7 access to my curated lists, including All-Weather Performers at: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

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P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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