Rudi’s View: Best Ideas & Conviction Calls

This story features ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Crestone’s Best Sector Ideas are an attempt to identify the best in breed business models for major industry group sectors for long-term oriented investors. Anticipated performance over the next three years is part of the key considerations.

The latest updated selection consists of 17 companies, with no changes made from December.

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone’s selection of sustainable dividend growers consists of 22 names. Historically, the stock pickers remind investors, companies that grow dividends consistently can offer superior long-term return for those who own them.

This selection has equally seen no changes from December.

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress Ltd ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Westpac Banking ((WBC))

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Morningstar’s Best Stock Ideas currently consists of the following 15 nominations:

-APA Group ((APA))
-ASX ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-TPG Telecom ((TPG))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

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Wilsons’ preferred ASX-listed exposures to the artificial intelligence theme are (in order of preference) NextDC ((NXT)), Macquarie Technology ((MAQ)), then DUG Technology ((DUG)).

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When it comes to mining companies, Citi analysts remain Buy rated on the coal and uranium names, with selective Buy calls elsewhere including for BlueScope Steel ((BSL)), Capstone Copper ((CSC)) and BHP Group ((BHP)). Citi continues to prefer Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) for ASX100 lithium exposure.

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Shaw and Partners’ Model Large Cap Portfolio currently consists of the following:

-Block ((SQ2))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Xero ((XRO))

The broker’s favourites among Emerging Companies:

-Amaero International ((3DA))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Bannerman ((BMN))
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Humm Group ((HUM))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Southern Cross Electrical ((SXE))

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Morgan Stanley’s international selection of 31 Best Businesses, which aims to combine elements of corporate Quality with ‘valuation’, forecasts and Quant analysis, for a two-year investment horizon (which can be extended, of course), includes two ASX-listed companies: Macquarie Group ((MQG)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

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Ord Minnett’s selection of Conviction Calls (“our best small cap stock ideas as selected by our analysts“).

-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Brazilian Rare Earths ((BRE))
-Cosol ((COS))
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-EQT Holdings ((EQT))
-Electro Optic Systems Holdings ((EOS))
-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Qoria ((QOR))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Stanmore Resources ((SMR))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Zip Co ((ZIP))

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Shaw and Partners Top 10 list of Small Cap Ideas for 2025:

-Amaero International ((3DA))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Beforepay ((B4P))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Humm Group ((HUM))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Silex Systems ((SLX))
-Southern Cross Electrical Engineering ((SXE))

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In December, analysts at Bell Potter published their most favoured stock picks for the year ahead, with multiple ideas put forward per sector.

-Listed Investment Companies (LICs): Australian Foundation Investment Company (AFI), Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund ((QRI)), and MFF Capital Investments ((MFF))

-Technology & Gaming: Life360 ((360)), Light & Wonder ((LNW)), and Gentrack Group ((GTK))

-Diversified Financials: Perpetual ((PPT)) and Regal Partners ((RPL))

-Real Estate: Aspen Group ((APZ)), Cedar Woods ((CWP)), and Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC))

-Retailers: JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), Premier Investments ((PMV)), and Accent Group ((AX1))

-Industrials: GenusPlus Group ((GNP)), SRG Global ((SRG)), and Duratec ((DUR)) as well as Austal Ltd ((ASB)), Brickworks ((BKW)), and IPD Group ((IPG))

-Healthcare: PolyNovo ((PNV)), Clarity Pharmaceuticals ((CU6)), and CSL ((CSL)) as well as EBR Systems ((EBR)), Biome Australia ((BIO)), and Genetic Signatures ((GSS))

-Gold companies: Genesis Minerals ((GMD)), Gold Road Resources ((GOR)), and Santana Minerals ((SMI))

-Base Metals: AIC Mines ((A1M)) and Nickel Industries ((NIC))

-Strategic Minerals: Alpha HPA ((A4N)) and IperionX ((IPX))

-Bulks & Energy companies: Boss Energy ((BOE)), Champion Iron ((CIA)), and Fenix Resources ((FEX))

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Jarden’s December update reduced the number of Best Ideas from the circa 110 smaller cap companies covered (ex-AS100) to 18 from 20 previously.

The broker’s Emerging Companies’ Key Picks (in order of total shareholder return) are:

-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))

The above are all picked by the broker’s Emerging Companies research team. The following stock picks have been selected by respective sector analysts:

-Champion Iron ((CIA))
-Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Ingenia Communities Group ((INA))
-Inghams Group ((ING))
-Karoon Gas ((KAR))
-Michael Hill International ((MHJ))
-Monadelphous ((MND))
-Pointsbet Holdings ((PBH))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))

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Macquarie‘s selection of best fundamental picks among quality mid-cap companies on the ASX:

-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Breville Group ((BRG))
-Ebos Group ((EBO))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-Fisher & Paykel Healthcare ((FPH))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-Megaport ((MP1))
-Monash IVF ((MVF))
-Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))
-Ventia Services ((VNT))

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Morgan Stanley’s Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-Santos ((STO))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

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Morgan Stanley’s Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

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Macquarie Wealth‘s recommended Growth Portfolio:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Seek ((SEK))
-Aristocrat leisure ((ALL))
-Northern Star ((NST))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Pexa Group ((PXA))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-Viva Energy ((VEA))
-Xero ((XRO))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))

Macquarie Wealth’s recommended Income Portfolio:

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Premier Investments ((PMV))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Viva Energy ((VEA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Deterra Royalties ((DRR))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-Charter Hall Retail REIT ((CQR))
-Amcor ((AMC))

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Macquarie’s ASX Quality Compounders:

The highest quality compounders’ as identified by Macquarie quant research inside the ASX300:

-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-REA Group ((REA))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Data#3 ((DTL))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-PWR Holdings ((PWH))
-Netwealth Group ((NWL))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK))
-Codan ((CDA))
-Clinuvel Pharmacauticals ((CUV))
-Redox ((RDX))

Given Macquarie’s research strong leaning on the past five years, with high barriers to match, the following 11 companies fell just outside the above list:

-Fisher & Paykel Healthcare ((FPH))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-CSL ((CSL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Breville Group ((BRG))
-Johns Lyng ((JLG))

My own research and All-Weather stock selections are 24/7 available for paying subscribers: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

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P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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