Rudi’s View: In Santa We Trust (?)

Rudi's View | Dec 05 2024

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

If this wasn't December, would you rather sell some shares and/or take profits?

Rummaging through the pile of strategy reports and market updates these past number of weeks, it appears the majority of professional investors would say 'yes' to the question.

But it is December and there's a common sense no major upheaval should be expected in the closing four weeks of the calendar year. So let's all relax, celebrate Christmas, the holidays, and reconsider plans and intentions in the new year.

Goes without saying, none of this means there will be a serious correction come early 2025. Markets are never that predictable.

Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, offered his clientele a similar warning this week, titled This Bull Run (since Oct'22) is Tiring!, followed by the subtitle But Stay Tactically Overweight (for now).

Watling does think a major pullback is coming for US equities, and it will reverberate through global markets. Could happen in early next year, or a little later, as covered by "probably in the first half of 2025".

Looking at a variety of market timing signals, Watling observes evidence of a tiring bull market is accumulating (poor participation, poor breadth and poor volumes) with some of Longview's indicators starting to generate Sell signals. But it's a process in development and some signals are still indicating more upside is possible.

One of the reasons to stay in current markets is the annual Santa Rally which Longview predicts will also happen this year, irrespective of valuations and growing suspicion of too much exuberance creeping in.

But then, the first half next year is increasingly looking like a challenge. This could be quite ironic given the next president of the US likes to measure his personal approval through the performance of the US share market.

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Market strategists at Canaccord Genuity offer a less dramatic warning, instead preparing investors for what could be a period of much lower returns from equities.

Canaccord's reasoning is the avoidance of economic recession has led to outsized returns from equities in 2024, but now await the consequences from economies that never went downhill fast, probably translating into higher inflation and higher bond yields.

When measured against elevated valuations for equities, this could well translate into serious headwinds for future returns, or so is the suggestion made.

Trump's extra-stimulatory intentions might well add more stimulus to inflation next year, and thus inadvertently feed further into the valuation headwind for the US share market, suggest the strategists.

It is Canaccord's view the situation for the Australian share market is not fundamentally different.

In terms of portfolio positioning, the strategists advocate being moderately overweight cash and moderately underweight equities "n the faceof potentially somewhat tougher markets".