Rudi’s View: In Santa We Trust (?)

This story features BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BSL

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

If this wasn’t December, would you rather sell some shares and/or take profits?

Rummaging through the pile of strategy reports and market updates these past number of weeks, it appears the majority of professional investors would say ‘yes’ to the question.

But it is December and there’s a common sense no major upheaval should be expected in the closing four weeks of the calendar year. So let’s all relax, celebrate Christmas, the holidays, and reconsider plans and intentions in the new year.

Goes without saying, none of this means there will be a serious correction come early 2025. Markets are never that predictable.

Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, offered his clientele a similar warning this week, titled This Bull Run (since Oct’22) is Tiring!, followed by the subtitle But Stay Tactically Overweight (for now).

Watling does think a major pullback is coming for US equities, and it will reverberate through global markets. Could happen in early next year, or a little later, as covered by “probably in the first half of 2025”.

Looking at a variety of market timing signals, Watling observes evidence of a tiring bull market is accumulating (poor participation, poor breadth and poor volumes) with some of Longview’s indicators starting to generate Sell signals. But it’s a process in development and some signals are still indicating more upside is possible.

One of the reasons to stay in current markets is the annual Santa Rally which Longview predicts will also happen this year, irrespective of valuations and growing suspicion of too much exuberance creeping in.

But then, the first half next year is increasingly looking like a challenge. This could be quite ironic given the next president of the US likes to measure his personal approval through the performance of the US share market.

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Market strategists at Canaccord Genuity offer a less dramatic warning, instead preparing investors for what could be a period of much lower returns from equities.

Canaccord’s reasoning is the avoidance of economic recession has led to outsized returns from equities in 2024, but now await the consequences from economies that never went downhill fast, probably translating into higher inflation and higher bond yields.

When measured against elevated valuations for equities, this could well translate into serious headwinds for future returns, or so is the suggestion made.

Trump’s extra-stimulatory intentions might well add more stimulus to inflation next year, and thus inadvertently feed further into the valuation headwind for the US share market, suggest the strategists.

It is Canaccord’s view the situation for the Australian share market is not fundamentally different.

In terms of portfolio positioning, the strategists advocate being moderately overweight cash and moderately underweight equities “n the faceof potentially somewhat tougher markets”.

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Now that we’ve mentioned Trump 2.0, twice, Ord Minnett’s lists of preferred stocks on the ASX has undergone a number of changes recently, with Research analyst Athena Kospetas reporting potential policies by the new US administration next year has been taken into account when making the various adjustments.

With import tariffs likely to stimulate US growth, but hurt the rest of the world, Ord Minnett sees BlueScope Steel ((BSL)) and James Hardie ((JHX)) as potential beneficiaries.

Bond yields are now expected to remain higher, but preference among banks and financials remains with Westpac ((WBC)), Macquarie Group ((MQG)), Judo Bank ((JDO)), Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Medibank Private ((MPL)).

Higher bond yields also makes investing in REITs and other bond proxies a tad trickier, but the broker still likes Waypoint REIT ((WPR)), Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC)), and Vicinity Centres ((VCX)).

Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)) remains a favourite too for investors too concerned about consumer spending next year, through Ord Minnett also likes ARB Corp ((ARB)) amd Qantas Airways ((QAN)).

In the healthcare space, CSL ((CSL)) shares are seen as undervalued as the market worries too much about what Robert F Kennedy Jr might do to vaccines, with further preferences for ResMed ((RMD)) and Regis Healthcare ((REG)).

In Technology, the advice for investors is to opt for high-quality exposures such as WiseTech Global ((WTC)) and Xero ((XRO)), while SiteMinder ((SDR)) is seen favourably as well.

Resources have not been a pretty place to be invested in this year, but Ord Minnett still likes Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Lynas Rare Earths ((LYC)), Vault Minerals ((VAU)) and Stanmore Resources ((SMR)).

As far as portfolio changes, AGL Energy ((AGL)) has now been removed from the Core Blue Chip Portfolio, with BlueScope Steel added. The Value/Income portfolio has seen the removal of GQG Partners ((GQG)), with Qantas Aiways added. The Growth portfolio no longer includes Newmont Corp ((NEM)), with Judo Capital and Lynas Rare Earths now added.

In small caps, the aforementioned GQG Partners has now been included, with P:innacle Investment Management Group ((PNI)) removed.

All this now leads to the following selections:

CORE BLUE CHIP

-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Insurance Australia Group ((IAG))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Santos ((STO))\
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))

VALUE (INCOME)

-Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Qantas Airways ((QAN))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-Vicinity Centres ((VCX))
-Ventia Services Group ((VNT))

SMALL CAPS

-Alliance Aviation ((AQZ))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Cosol ((COS))
-Electro Optic Systems ((EOS))
-EQT Holdings ((EQT))
-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Lindsay Australia ((LAU))
-Qoria ((QOR))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-SRG Global ((SRG))
-Stanmore Resources ((SMR))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))

GROWTH

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-Judo Capital ((JDO))
-Lynas Rare Earths ((LYC))
-Qube Holdings ((QUB))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Xero ((XRO))

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RBC Capital‘s selection of Global Best Ideas in the Energy sector still includes Woodside Energy ((WDS)).

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Market strategists at Crestone stand out with a more “constructive” view on equity markets in 2025. While acknowledging the multiple risks and uncertainties, Crestone seeks solace in earnings resilience in the US and in the fact that after two years of dismal EPS growth in Australia, surely a recovery must be on the cards?

Having enjoyed two years of fantastic returns (20%-plus each) maybe the year ahead might prove more of a “normal” year, suggests Crestone. Reading through the asset manager’s recently updated strategy report, the suggestion is that “normal” might be something in the vicinity of 7% return.

For Australian investors, the outlook might look tougher as elevated valuations currently mix with rather dismal growth in earnings. Nevertheless, Crestome has no qualms in being overweight equities in the US, Japan and domestically.

The strategists do admity they are keeping a watchful eye out for any changes in the forward-looking dynamics.

Crestone’s freshly updated Best Sector Ideas are an attempt to identify the best in breed business models for major industry group sectors for long-term oriented investors. Anticipated performance over the next three years is part of the key considerations.

The selection consists of 17 companies (no changes made since the prior update):

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone’s selection of sustainable dividend growers consists of 22 names, with equally no changes made since the prior revision. Historically, the stock pickers remind investors, companies that grow dividends consistently can offer superior long-term return for those who own them.

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress Ltd ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Westpac Banking ((WBC))

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Morningstar’s selection of Best Buys on the ASX consists of:

-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-TPG Telecom ((TPG))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Santos ((STO))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-IDP Education ((IEL))

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Ord Minnett’s list of Conviction Calls:

-Alliance Aviation Services ((AQZ))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Cosol ((COS))
-EQT Holdings ((EQT))
-Electro Optic Systems Holdings ((EOS))
-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Lindsay Australia ((LAU))
-Qoria ((QOR))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-SRG Global ((SRG))
-Stanmore Resources ((SMR))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))

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Jarden’s recent update on smaller cap ASX-listed companies (“emerging companies”) has led to the release of 20 Best Ideas, lined up in order of anticipated total return (potential):

-IPH Ltd ((IPH))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-AUB Group ((AUB))

The above are all picked by the broker’s Emerging Companies research team. The following stock picks have been selected by respective sector analysts:

-Inghams Group ((ING))
-Monadelphous ((MND))
-Champion Iron ((CIA))
-Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))

And then there’s another list of stocks that have equally been selected with High Conviction:

-Pointsbet Holdings ((PBH))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-National Storage ((NSR))
-Ingenia Communities Group ((INA))
-Karoon Gas ((KAR))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Michael Hill International ((MHJ))

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Wilsons’ Australian Equity Focus Portfolio:

-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-WEB Travel Group ((WEB))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Breville Group ((BRG))
-Santos ((STO))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))
-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-South32 ((S32))
-Metals Acquisition ((MAC))
-Sandfire Resources ((SFR))
-HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

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Wilsons Highest Conviction investment ideas:

-Santos ((STO))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-James Hardie
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))

Among Research Ideas, the following six names are seen as Long Term Growth ideas:

-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-Universal Stores ((UNI))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Neuren Pharmaceuticals ((NEU))
-Siteminder ((SDR))

For those with a more speculative mindset, Wilsons puts forward PYC Therapeutics ((PYC)). In the Resources sector, the choice is Beach Energy ((BPT)).

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Goldman Sachs’s APAC Conviction List includes Life360 ((360)) and Xero ((XRO)).

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The full list of UBS’s Most Preferred Best Stock Ideas:

In Resources:

-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-Santos ((STO))

In Financials:

-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

Industrials:

-Brambles ((BXB))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-REA Group ((REA))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))

The list of Least Preferred exposures:

-APA Group ((APA))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG))
-JB Hi-Fi ((JBH))
-Reece ((REH))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))

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Morgan Stanley’s Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Santos ((STO))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

Plus:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

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Morgan Stanley’s Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

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Crestone’s selected list of Best Ideas in Australia:

-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Xero ((XRO))

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Stockbroker Morgans’ list of Best Ideas:

-Acrow ((ACF))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-Beacon Lighting ((BLX))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Camplify Holdings ((CHL))
-Cedar Woods Properties ((CWP))
-ClearView Wealth ((CVW))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Dexus Industria REIT ((DXI))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Flight Centre Travel ((FLT))
-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-HomeCo Daily Needs REIT ((HDN))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-MA Financial ((MAF))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Mach7 Technologies ((M7T))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-PolyNovo ((PNV))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))
-Superloop ((SLC))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL))
-Woodside Energe ((WDS))

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Macquarie Wealth‘s recommended Growth Portfolio:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Seek ((SEK))
-Aristocrat leisure ((ALL))
-Northern Star ((NST))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-Mineral Resources ((MIN))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Pexa Group ((PXA))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-Viva Energy ((VEA))
-Xero ((XRO))

Macquarie Wealth’s recommended Income Portfolio:

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Premier Investments ((PMV))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Viva Energy ((VEA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Deterra Royalties ((DRR))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-Charter Hall Retail REIT ((CQR))
-Amcor ((AMC))

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In December, Shaw and Partners released its 10 Best Ideas to benefit from the anticipated small caps’ revival in 2024:

-AIC Mines ((A1M))
-Austin Engineering ((ANG))
-FireFly Metals ((FFM)), previously AuTeco (AUT)
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Gentrack Group ((GTK))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-MMA Offshore ((MRM))
-Peninsula Energy ((PEN))
-ReadyTech Holdings ((RDY))
-Silex Energy ((SLX))

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Macquarie’s ASX Quality Compounders:

The highest quality compounders’ as identified by Macquarie quant research inside the ASX300:

-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-REA Group ((REA))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Data#3 ((DTL))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-PWR Holdings ((PWH))
-Netwealth Group ((NWL))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK))
-Codan ((CDA))
-Clinuvel Pharmacauticals ((CUV))
-Redox ((RDX))

Given Macquarie’s research strong leaning on the past five years, with high barriers to match, the following 11 companies fell just outside the above list:

-Fisher & Paykel Healthcare ((FPH))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-CSL ((CSL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Breville Group ((BRG))
-Johns Lyng ((JLG))

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Key Stock Picks for the year-ahead nominated by analysts at Bell Potter:

-Among listed investment companies (LICs); Australian Foundation Investment Company ((AFI)), Metrics Master Income Trust ((MXT)), and MFF Capital Investments ((MFF))

-Agriculture & fast moving consumer goods; Bega Cheese ((BGA)), Rural Funds Group ((RFF)), and Elders ((ELD))

-Technology; TechnologyOne ((TNE)), Gentrack ((GTK)), and REA Group ((REA))

-Diversified Financials; Perpetual ((PPT)), Regal Partners ((RPL)), and McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS))

-Real Estate; Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXS)), HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW)), and GDI Property Group ((GDI))

-Retailers; Premier Investments ((PMV)), Universal Store Holdings ((UNI)), and Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))

-Aerospace & Defence; Electro Optic Systems ((EOS)) and Austal ((ASB))

-Industrials; Brickworks ((BKW)), IPD Group ((IPG)), and Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))

-Healthcare; Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)), Cyclopharm ((CYC)), Aroa Bioscience ((ARX)), MedAdvisor ((MDR)), and Neuren Pharmaceuticals ((NEU))

-Gold sector; Capricorn Metals ((CMM)) and Santana Minerals ((SMI))

-Base metals; Aeris Resources ((AIS)), Nickel Industries ((NIC)), and Mineral Resources ((MIN))

-Strategic Minerals; Alpha HPA ((A4N)), IperionX ((IPX)), and Liontown Resources ((LTR))

-Energy sector; Boss Energy ((BOE)) and Paladin Energy ((PDN))

-Mining services; Seven Group Holdings ((SVW)), Mader Group ((MAD)), and SRG Global ((SRG))

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Ord Minnett’s research analyst Athena Kospetas has communicated the following Key Preferred Ideas per sector:

Financials
-Westpac ((WBC))
-Judo Bank ((JDO))
-Insurance Australia Group ((IAG))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-nib Holdings ((NHF))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-EQT Trustees ((EQT))

Resources
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Red 5 ((RED))

Energy & Utilities
-Santos ((STO))
-Strike Energy ((STX))
-AGL Energy ((AGL))

Healthcare
-ResMed ((RMD))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Regis Healthcare ((REH))

Consumer stocks
-Qantas Airways ((QAN))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))

Communication Services & Technology
-Xero ((XRO))
-Seek ((SEK))
-Telstra ((TLS))

Industrials
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Alliance Aviation ((AQZ))
-SRG Global ((SRG))
-Qube Holdings ((QUB))

Real Estate
-Vicinity Centres ((VCX))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))

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Barrenjoey’s Top Picks:

-Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) among financials, as well as GQG partners ((GQG)) and Westpac ((WBC))
-Xero ((XRO)), Pexa Group ((PXA)) and Dicker Data ((DDR)) in the technology sector
-Vicinity Centres ((VCX)) and Abacus Storage King ((ASK)) among REITs
-South32 ((S32)), Lynas Rare Earths ((LYC)) and Perseus Mining ((PRU)) among miners and Strike Energy ((STX)) in the oil&gas sector
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Aristocrat Leisure
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Seven Group ((SVW))

My research and All-Weather stock selections are 24/7 available for paying subscribers: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

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