Rudi’s View: First Relief, Then More Selling?

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In today’s update:

-First Relief, Then More Selling?
-Conviction Calls and Best Buys

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

When equities sell off because of non-fundamental reasons, the best response is probably not to join the selling but instead to start looking for opportunity.

Monday’s excessive pull back in the local stock market might well qualify as such a non-fundamental event as, contrary to the many media reports about US recession angst, the real trigger was the yen carry trade turning nasty.

For those not yet aware of what the yen carry trade entails and why it was the trigger to a global rout in risk assets, the following video explains it nicely: https://x.com/i/status/1820319360793149625

A similar approach stands out from share market strategy updates this week. Great minds thinking alike? Below are some of the more interesting updates I have come across.

UBS strategist Richard Schellbach sticks to his year-end target for the ASX200 of 8000.

He sums up today’s fundamental proposition as follows:

–Worried about US jobs data (and thus recession)?

UBS remains fairly confident in an overall positive outcome. Locally, the RBA will remain on hold for longer, and this is partially because economic growth is holding up better-than-anticipated.

UBS thinks the local market will continue to move higher as the Fed cuts in the US. The RBA is expected to start loosening in May next year.

–Worried about overvalued Tech and Gen.Ai beneficiaries?

UBS argues any follow-through impact from a sell-off in US technology stocks will remain fairly limited for Australia.

–Worried about further carry trade unwinding?

UBS argues once the Fed starts cutting interest rates, the US dollar should start weakening. Historically, this always has been beneficial for the Australian share market.

–Worried about China’s slowdown?

Okay, UBS admits it, this remains a genuine worry. Thus far, resources stocks have lagged the broader market, but UBS also points out the picture painted by local miners hasn’t been that pessimistic.

****

Bell Potter has been equally confident about weaker share prices opening up great opportunities. Having run its ruler over the ASX100, the following oversold screen results were communicated with the broker’s clients on Wednesday morning:

-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Xero ((XRO))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-South32 ((S32))
-Worley ((WOR))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))

****

Wilsons equally is of the view the market sell-off looks overdone. Three stocks Wilsons will be looking at for additional exposure in case of more share price weakness:

-ResMed ((RMD))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-South32

The first two are conviction growth stories, while South32 is considered attractive because of a diversified commodity mix, the company’s ongoing pivot towards future facing metals, and a strong balance sheet.

****

Equally interesting is that Citi’s in-house view remains in favour of a hard landing for the US economy, but Citi strategists are refusing to give up on the Gen.Ai beneficiaries. While earnings reports for the Mag7 in the US have not all been positively received, Citi thinks it’s simply a market reset and investor optimism will stage a come-back.

For this reason, Citi strategist are sticking with an Overweight allocation to US equities, while their allocation is Neutral overall for equities worldwide. In commodities, the portfolio allocation remains long precious metals, short oil.

****

The research contribution from Longview Economics specifically zooms in on sizable corrections in US equities. Historically, reports Longview, a fall of -10% or more almost always sees the market retesting the low put in place during the first wave of selling, but not before there has been a recovery rally first.

Longview has analysed all -10-15% corrections that occurred since 1978. There’s a well-defined pattern that seems to be occurring every single time:

-Wave of selling hits the market
-Relief rally follows
-Another wave of selling follows which takes the market to the previous intra-day low, possibly lower

On some occasions there is another relief rally, followed by a final wave of selling.

In summary: these market corrections go through three phases of alternating pull backs and rallies, sometimes the process consists of five stages.

Given we are probably only at the beginning of stage two, Longview has a Neutral recommended allocation to equities. The concern is for a repeat of the set-up in late 2018 when markets literally bullied the Federal Reserve into changing its tightening bias, which implies weakness can last a lot longer and take markets a lot deeper, still.

Personally, I find this a rather awkward view given market consensus already sees the first Fed rate cut in September, and bond markets are priced as such (and it’s not like Powell & Co are refusing to play to that script).

The good news is Longview does not believe we are at the early stages of a new prolonged bear market. Such precedents have been omitted from the research. And while the likelihood that this week’s lows will be revisited is considered “high”, history also shows such lows are seldom broken, and only in a small manner if it does happen.

And oh yes, outside of recessions and bear markets, this process rarely unfolds in five stages. Three is the standard in the absence of recession.

****

Note on Audinate Group ((AD8)); I did receive questions regarding the outlook for Audinate Group post this week’s profit warning. I am literally running out of time (yesterday’s website outage didn’t help either) but intend to follow-up in Weekly Insights on Monday.

Model Portfolios, Best Ideas & Conviction Calls

Jarden‘s select list of Best Ideas among small cap stocks in Australia (ex-ASX100) -freshly updated- now contains the following 19 stocks:

-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Champion Iron ((CIA))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-Domain Holdings Australia ((DHG))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-Ingenia Communities Group ((INA))
-Inghams Group ((ING))
-IPH Ltd ((IPH))
-Karoon Gas ((KAR))
-Light & Wonder ((LNW))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-NRW Holdings ((NWH))
-National Storage ((NSR))
-Pointsbet Holdings ((PBH))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))

Has disappeared since the previous update:

-Siteminder ((SDR))

Have since been added:

-AUB Group
-EVT Ltd
-IPH Ltd
-Pointsbet Holdings

****

Ord Minnett‘s Buy-rated stocks in the local technology sector are currently: Cosol ((COS)), Dropsuite ((DSE)), Hansen Technologies ((HSN)), Life360 ((360)), Qoria ((QOR)), Seek ((SEK)), Siteminder ((SDR)), and Xero ((XRO)).

The list contains one lonely Sell rating, which is reserved for Pro Medicus ((PME)).

****

Market strategists at Evans and Partners bemoan the fact higher for longer inflation numbers in Australia are preventing the RBA from lowering the burden of high interest rates. This, argue the strategists, effectively places a ceiling over the economy and the share market, limiting upside potential.

The key risk for the quarters ahead, argues Evans and Partners, is that high inflation with low growth becomes the consensus view locally. The strategists thus implore investors to be cautious and selective, “scrutinising those businesses and industries facing cyclical headwinds and instead focussing on companies with more diverse earnings drivers.”

Evans and Partners’ key focus has turned to offshore earners, “as well as businesses with strong industry positions benefiting from structural thematics such as digitalization and decarbonisation”.

Selected names:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Block Inc ((SQ2))

As well as:

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-APA Group ((APA))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-Macquarie Technology Group ((MAQ))

Also worth mentioning, Evans and Partners’ preferred yield ideas are:

-APA Group ((APA))
-Arena REIT ((ARF))
-Qantas Airways ((QAN))
-Telstra ((TLS))

****

Key Stock Picks for the year-ahead nominated by analysts at Bell Potter:

-Among listed investment companies (LICs); Australian Foundation Investment Company ((AFI)), Metrics Master Income Trust ((MXT)), and MFF Capital Investments ((MFF))

-Agriculture & fast moving consumer goods; Bega Cheese ((BGA)), Rural Funds Group ((RFF)), and Elders ((ELD))

-Technology; TechnologyOne ((TNE)), Gentrack ((GTK)), and REA Group ((REA))

-Diversified Financials; Perpetual ((PPT)), Regal Partners ((RPL)), and McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS))

-Real Estate; Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXS)), HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW)), and GDI Property Group ((GDI))

-Retailers; Premier Investments ((PMV)), Universal Store Holdings ((UNI)), and Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))

-Aerospace & Defence; Electro Optic Systems ((EOS)) and Austal ((ASB))

-Industrials; Brickworks ((BKW)), IPD Group ((IPG)), and Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))

-Healthcare; Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)), Cyclopharm ((CYC)), Aroa Bioscience ((ARX)), MedAdvisor ((MDR)), and Neuren Pharmaceuticals ((NEU))

-Gold sector; Capricorn Metals ((CMM)) and Santana Minerals ((SMI))

-Base metals; Aeris Resources ((AIS)), Nickel Industries ((NIC)), and Mineral Resources ((MIN))

-Strategic Minerals; Alpha HPA ((A4N)), IperionX ((IPX)), and Liontown Resources ((LTR))

-Energy sector; Boss Energy ((BOE)) and Paladin Energy ((PDN))

-Mining services; Seven Group Holdings ((SVW)), Mader Group ((MAD)), and SRG Global ((SRG))

****

Barrenjoey Chief Equity Strategist Damien Boey has been among the first to declare it’s time to pivot the investment portfolio in favour of a more defensive positioning (not that the market has been paying any attention).

Barrenjoey’s Bucket List of conviction calls includes the following selection:

-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-Viva Energy Group ((VEA))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))
-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Santos ((STO))
-Northern Star ((NST))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-Insurance Australia Group ((IAG))
-Ventia Services Group ((VNT))
-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Orora ((ORA))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-CSL ((CSL))

Boey’s reasoning for a more defensive portfolio positioning is because global risk appetite is currently much higher than the economic outlook deserves it to be. Even with the prospect of central bank rate cuts underpinning positive sentiment, Boey thinks it’s more likely risk appetite will, at some point, pull back.

Potential triggers include the Bank of Japan diverging away from its global peers, and devaluations of JPY and/or the Chinese Yuan.

In Australia, the Barrenjoey strategist worries about the RBA raising rates further in response to stubbornly high inflation. With excess savings depleting rapidly among Australians, consumer spending remains at risk of slowing further, with negative flow on effects for the labour market.

Barrenjoey is thus underweight banks and domestic rate-sensitive cyclicals and believes Insurance, Staples, Telcos, Healthcare and Utilities are defensive in this environment.

****

JP Morgan‘s last update on Emerging Companies (“small caps”) showed Superloop ((SLC)) is the Top Pick and Dicker Data ((DDR)) is the broker’s Bottom Pick.

The first is lauded for its strong operational momentum on still an undemanding valuation, while the market is seen as too optimistic for Dicker Data’s outlook which includes slowing top line growth.

****

The full list of UBS’s Least Preferred stocks now includes:

-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-Domain Holdings ((DHG))
-Pilbara Minerals ((PLS))
-Reece ((REH))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))

UBS’s full list of Most Preferred stocks:

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-Santos ((STO))

-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-nib Holdings ((NHF))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Brambles ((BXB))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-CSL ((CSL))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-Super Retail ((SUL))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Treasury Wine ((TWE))
-Universal Store ((UNI))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))

****

Ord Minnett analysts’ Conviction List consists of the following:

-Alliance Aviation Services ((AQZ))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Cosol ((COS))
-EQT Holdings ((EQT))
-Lindsay Australia ((LAU))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Red 5 ((RED))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-Select Harvests ((SHV))
-SRG Globval ((SRG))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Webjet ((WEB))
-Whitehaven Coal ((WHC))

****

Goldman Sachs’s High Conviction calls for the Asia-Pacific region includes only four ASX-listed companies:

-Lynas Rare Earths ((LYC))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-Qantas Airways ((QAN))
-Xero ((XRO))

****

Morningstar’s Best Equity Ideas for ASX-listed stocks contains 14 inclusions, with Brambles, Dexus and Endeavour Group joining in and a2 Milk, Ventia Services and Lendlease no longer included. Morningstar’s approach is traditionally centred around ‘cheap value’, or in Morningstar’s own words:

“monthly Best Stock Ideas highlights high-quality Australian and New Zealand companies, which are currently trading at discounts to our assessed fair values.”

-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-TPG Telecom ((TPG))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Santos ((STO))
-AUB Group ((AUB))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Pexa Group ((PXA))

As well as Fineos Corp ((FCL)), ResMed and Newmont Corp among international ideas.

****

Morgan Stanley’s Australia Macro+ Focus List contains the following 10 stocks:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morgan Stanley’s Macro+ Model Portfolio consists of the following 32 constituents:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((SGP))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban Group ((TCL))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))
-Paladin Energy ((PDN))
-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Wilsons‘ list of Highest Conviction Investment Ideas: TechnologyOne, Worley ((WOR)), Woodside Energy, Aristocrat Leisure, and Collins Foods ((CKF)).

More ideas come with “long term growth” profiles:

-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-Universal Stores ((UNI))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Neuren Pharmaceuticals ((NEU))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))

Among Resources stocks, there are two favoured ideas:

-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Liontown Resources ((LTR))

And there’s a Speculative basket too:

-Immutep ((IMM))

****

Wilsons’ Focus Portfolio‘s largest overweight remains towards growth companies, including a large overweight to the healthcare sector. The largest underweight allocation remains for local banks. The Portfolio also holds a slight overweight allocation to resources, but this is due to “active positioning” in green metals and energy (underweight iron ore).

The Focus Portfolio encompasses the following:

Consumer Discretionary
Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL)), Lottery Corp ((TLC)), Collins Foods ((CKF)), Breville Group ((BRG)), Webjet ((WEB))

Energy
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

Financials
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ)), National Australia Bank ((NAB)), Westpac ((WBC)), Macquarie Group ((MQG)), Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), Netwealth Group ((NWL)), Steadfast Group ((SDF))

Healthcare
-CSL ((CSL)), ResMed ((RMD)), Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))

Industrials
-Worley ((WOR))

Information Technology
-TechnologyOne ((TNE)), Xero ((XRO))

Materials
-BHP Group ((BHP)), Amcor ((AMC)), Evolution Mining ((EVN)), Mineral Resources ((MIN)), Arcadium Lithium ((LTM)), Sandfire Resources ((SFR)), South32 ((S32))

Real Estate
-Goodman Group ((GMG)), HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))

****

Macquarie Wealth’s recommended Growth Portfolio:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Seek ((SEK))
-Aristocrat leisure ((ALL))
-Northern Star ((NST))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-Flight Centre ((FLT))
-Mineral Resources ((MIN))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))
-Arcadium Lithium ((LTM))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Pexa Group ((PXA))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-Viva Energy ((VEA))
-Xero ((XRO))

Macquarie Wealth’s recommended Income Portfolio:

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Premier Investments ((PMV))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Viva Energy ((VEA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Deterra Royalties ((DRR))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-Charter Hall Retail REIT ((CQR))
-Amcor ((AMC))

****

Shaw and Partners Research Monitor for the June quarter shows the broker’s ASX100 Large Caps Model Portfolio consists of the following ten members:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Pilbara Minerals ((PLS))
-Qantas Airways ((QAN))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-Xero ((XRO))

Preferred exposures among ’emerging companies’ (smaller caps) are:

-Abacus Storage King ((ASK))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Black Cat Syndicate ((BC8))
-Global Lithium Resources ((GL1))
-Helloworld ((HLO))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Retail Food Group ((RFG))
-Vista Group ((VGL))
-Tyro Payments ((TYR))
-Webjet ((WEB))

****

Stockbroker Morgans‘ list of Best Ideas currently consists of the following 32 ASX-listed companies:

Among Large Caps:
-Coles Group ((COL))
-CSL ((CSL))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

Cyclicals:
-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Beacon Lighting ((BLX))
-GUD Holdings ((GUD))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Acrow ((ACF))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))

Structural Growth:
-ResMed ((RMD))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Mach7 Technologies ((M7T))
-Camplify Holdings ((CHL))
-Superloop ((SLC))

Tactical Ideas:
-Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
-ClearView Wealth ((CVW))
-Inghams Group ((ING))
-Avita Medical ((AVH))
-Flight Centre Travel ((FLT))

Preferred Resources:
-South32 ((S32))
-Stanmore Resources ((SMR))

A-REITs:
-Cedar Woods Properties ((CWP))
-Dexus Industria REIT ((DXI))
-HomeCo Daily Needs REIT ((HDN))
-Qualitas ((QAL))

****

In December, Shaw and Partners released its 10 Best Ideas to benefit from the anticipated small caps’ revival in 2024.

The selected ten:

-AIC Mines ((A1M))
-Austin Engineering ((ANG))
-FireFly Metals ((FFM)), previously AuTeco (AUT)
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Gentrack Group ((GTK))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-MMA Offshore ((MRM))
-Peninsula Energy ((PEN))
-ReadyTech Holdings ((RDY))
-Silex Energy ((SLX))

****

Macquarie’s ASX Quality Compounders

The highest quality ‘compounders’ as identified by Macquarie quant research inside the ASX300:

-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-REA Group ((REA))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Data#3 ((DTL))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-PWR Holdings ((PWH))
-Netwealth Group ((NWL))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK))
-Codan ((CDA))
-Clinuvel Pharmacauticals ((CUV))
-Redox ((RDX))

Given Macquarie’s research strong leaning on the past five years, with high barriers to match, the following 11 companies fell just outside the above list:

-Fisher & Paykel Healthcare ((FPH))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-CSL ((CSL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Breville Group ((BRG))
-Johns Lyng ((JLG))

My research and All-Weather stock selections are 24/7 available for paying subscribers: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I – All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi’s View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of ‘Rudi’s View’. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi’s View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

FNARENA VIDEO

Dani and I have put together a video to explain our focus (and enthusiasm as investors) for GenAi, the fourth industrial revolution:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/fnarena-talks/2024/07/15/investing-in-genai-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/

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