Corporate Results Monitor
FNArena's All-Year Round Australian Corporate Results Monitor.
Currently monitoring March-July 2025.
Figures shown as at 21 May 2025
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TOTAL STOCKS:
33
Beats
12
In Line
9
Misses
12
Previous Corporate Results Updates
| Company | Result | Upgrades | Downgrades | Buy/ Hold/Sell |
Prev Target | New Target | Brokers | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALK - Alkane Resources | MISS | 0 | 0 | 1/0/0 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 1 | Alkane Resources' 1H25 revenue was in line with Bell Potter's forecast but profit before tax missed due to higher amortisation charges. The broker increased depreciation and amortisation forecasts for FY25-26. The FY27 production forecast was reduced to 99koz from 105koz after factoring in a six-month delay to the start of mining from the San Antino open pit at the Tomingley gold operations. Target price cut to $1.20 from $1.25. Buy. |
| AMC - Amcor | MISS | 1 | 0 | 3/1/0 | 17.69 | 16.55 | 4 | North America weighed on Amcor's 3Q25 earnings, with the packaging giant delivering lower-than-anticipated results.Morgans points to growth in flexibles but a fall in rigid packaging, as increased labour costs and weaker volumes resulted in earnings (EBIT) margins slipping by -11bps. More value-oriented consumers are switching to cheaper product options, including bulk buying through alternative channels, which does not augur well for Amcor's product mix, which is geared to convenience stores. Ord Minnett notes a downgrade by management to FY25 guidance as conditions deteriorated over the quarter. Only two months of Berry contribution is in the guidance. Daily monitored brokers ascribe one Hold rating and three Buy-equivalent ratings, including one upgrade post-report from Hold. |
| ANZ - ANZ Bank | MISS | 0 | 0 | 0/6/0 | 28.33 | 27.42 | 6 | ANZ Bank's interim result fell short of expectations. Underlying growth excluding the Suncorp Bank acquisition was flat. The new CEO has his challenges lined up, mainly cost-management ahead of business integration (Suncorp Bank) and technology upgrades. Some analysts see a dividend cut on the horizon as early as H2 FY25. The bank has decided to take on a more conservative capital setting, including issuing new shares for the Dividend Reinvestment Program. Ongoing stiff competition for depositors and borrowers colour the background. Six brokers, six Hold/Neutral ratings. |
| ALL - Aristocrat Leisure | MISS | 0 | 0 | 7/0/0 | 76.67 | 73.23 | 7 | Aristocrat Leisure's interim report fell short of market expectations due to a decline in fee per day (FPD) and a higher tax rate. While various one-off impacts can be identified, Bell Potter has observed a sideways trend in the last three years for FPD. Earnings estimates have been reset lower, with most analysts continuing to see the company well-positioned for 2H25 and beyond supported by a robust product pipeline. The share buyback program is back in action. Management confirmed there are no material tariff impacts expected in FY25 and also highlighted the capacity to do more M&A of scale. Six out of six Buy equivalent ratings. |
| AVL - Australian Vanadium | IN LINE | 0 | 0 | 1/0/0 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1 | Australian Vanadium's 1H results aligned with expectations held by Shaw and Partners. The after-tax loss of -$6.1m is irrelevant, in the broker's view, prior to development of an end-to-end grid-scale Australian battery industry. Buy, High Risk rating with 6c target. |
| BOQ - Bank of Queensland | BEAT | 1 | 0 | 0/2/3 | 6.07 | 6.38 | 5 | A reduction in costs of -5% and a lower credit loss ratio of 1bps versus the 5bps expected by UBS assisted Bank of Queensland in delivering a 1H25 lift in cash net profit, beating expectations with EPS and DPS above forecasts by 11.2% and 6.7%, respectively. Morgans stressed the probability of material upgrades to the earnings/dividend outlook if the bank can stay the course on FY26 targets for return on equity and Tier 1 capital ratio. Macquarie cast a more cynical eye over the results, stating a reduction in investment spend of -$50m accounted for the beat. Credit quality was described as "sound" by Morgan Stanley, with the CET1 in line with consensus. The stock is ascribed three Sell-equivalent ratings and two Hold-equivalent, including one upgrade from Sell. |
| BKW - Brickworks | MISS | 0 | 0 | 3/2/0 | 31.04 | 28.62 | 5 | Brickworks' had issued a profit warning beforehand and the release of interim financials proved a rather mixed affair. Overall, 1H25 earnings were weak, with the Property division generating lower development profits and Building Materials impacted by softer demand. Investments saw a slight slowing in returns. Analysts either focus on the underlying resilience (property revaluations), weakness in the US, the discounted valuation or the prospect of a cyclical upturn in 2026. Three Buy ratings outnumber two on Neutral/Hold. |
| CIA - Champion Iron | MISS | 0 | 0 | 3/0/0 | 6.47 | 6.53 | 3 | Lower milling volumes and ore hardness contributed to a fourth-quarter production miss for Champion Iron. Shipments exceeded expectations by 4% thanks to improved rail performance, Macquarie highlighted, with the drawdown of site inventory to 2.5mt reinforcing the view of easing logistic bottlenecks. Cash costs were in line with to higher than expectations, while realised pricing fell short. Citi details ore hardness continues to inhibit ore recovery, which remains below 80%. Cash on hand at the end of the period came in above consensus by CA$11m to CA$118m. Three Buy-equivalent ratings on a cheap looking share price. |
| DNL - Dyno Nobel | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 2/3/0 | 3.09 | 2.95 | 6 | Dyno Nobel's 1H25 better-than-expected results confirmed to Citi that the company is on track with its Transformation program, achieving $89m in net benefits to date. The company formerly known as Incitec Pivot achieved a 'beat' on earnings before interest and tax, although the result was down on the previous year by -46%. Dyno Nobel also announced (finally) the sale of its unwanted fertilisers business, which some analysts consider a highlight of the report, to Ridley Corp ((RIC)) for $375m. Operationally, Asia Pacific performed softer than anticipated due to lower coal volumes, and the Americas, although better than expected, fell -44% on the WALA sale and maintenance impacts. Macquarie is on research restriction, leaving three Neutral/Holds and two Buy ratings. |
| EBR - EBR Systems | IN LINE | 0 | 0 | 2/0/0 | 2.01 | 2.78 | 2 | EBR Systems reported 2024 results which were in line with expectations according to Morgans. The company reported a net loss of -US$40.8m, worse by -16% on the previous year, with growth in operating expenses of 11%. Cash used increased by 26% to -US$41.2m, with year-end cash and equivalents at around US$66m — around six months of current cash burn. The broker envisages little risk to FDA approval on or before April 13 due to the successful Solve-CRT trial. Speculative Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $2.86 from $1.76. |
| FPR - FleetPartners Group | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 2/0/0 | 3.74 | 3.84 | 2 | FleetPartners Group put the runs on the board with its latest first half earnings report, coming in at the upper end of management's March guidance, although net profit after tax still declined by -7% on a year earlier. New guidance is pointing to a potentially strong 2H25 outcome, Morgan Stanley observes, with underlying organic growth for new business written flagged around 10% when accounting for the backlog release tailwinds. A pick-up in 90-plus day arrears by 70bps was due to system cut over disruptions. Macquarie lifts EPS estimates by 8.5% for FY25 and 7.6% for FY26. Two brokers, two Buy ratings. |
| FSF - Fonterra Shareholders Fund | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 1/0/0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 | Macquarie notes Fonterra Shareholders Fund's 1H25 EPS growth was more like 30% y/y vs the reported 10% after adjusting for tax changes, digital investments and divestment costs. Free cash flow was negative at -NZ$2.1bn due mainly to seasonal factors and higher advances to farmers, pushing net debt higher but the broker expects this will unwind over time. The broker raised FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by 19% and 11% respectively. Target price rises to NZ$6.89 from NZ$5.96, Buy (Outperform) maintained. |
| GNC - GrainCorp | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 3/2/0 | 8.67 | 8.59 | 5 | GrainCorp's better-than-forecast interim performance was labeled a "low quality beat" as the result benefited $22m from a crop production contract and hedging in nutrition and energy. Regardless, a number of positives stood out with Morgans stating the crush margin wasn't as weak as expected, the XFA acquisition contributed more than expected, and edible oil sales were strong. Management lifted FY25 EBITDA guidance, albeit excluding business transformation costs. Macquarie spotted earnings resilience despite softer supply-chain margins. Two Buy ratings versus two on Hold/Neutral. |
| KMD - KMD Brands | MISS | 0 | 0 | 0/1/0 | 0.48 | 0.35 | 1 | KMD Brands managed to meet forecasts with its interim performance, but management's guidance towards lower margins proved the downer. Morgan Stanley has reduced its EBITDA forecast by -40% for FY25 and again by -18% for FY26. Target price lowered to 35c from 50c. Rating remains Equal-weight (equivalent of Neutral/Hold). |
| 360 - Life360 | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 3/0/0 | 27.21 | 30.12 | 3 | Life360 reported a 'shoot-the-lights-out' Q1 2025 earnings report, resulting in brokers upgrading earnings forecasts and 12-month target prices. Revenue beat Bell Potter's estimate due to a rise in other revenue by 99%, and earnings (EBITDA) came in positive at US$4.4m against the analyst's expectations of a -US$2.8m loss. Ord Minnett points to net adds in paying circles of 137k, a rise of 43% on a year earlier and a record for the company. Management retained FY25 revenue guidance, which infers to Morgan Stanley a cut to hardware revenue forecasts, but also an upgrade to subscription revenue. Two new partnerships with Aura/MetLife and AccuWeather were announced; a positive in terms of incremental higher-margin additions for the existing 84m user base. Three Buy ratings. |
| LNW - Light & Wonder | MISS | 0 | 0 | 5/0/0 | 202.20 | 197.20 | 5 | Light & Wonder's March quarter performance didn't quite match expectations and questions are now alive whether the company can achieve FY25 guidance. Operational momentum needs to pick up, and fast, if FY25 disappointment is to be avoided. Earnings estimates have been pared back. The company has put shifting its primary listing to Australia on hold for the time being. In positive news: tariffs won't impact the cost of goods sold for a few quarters because of advance inventory purchases. Plus management stated it has tariff mitigation strategies in place, including production onshoring, trade agreements and sourcing relocation. Four broker updates, four Buy ratings. |
| LTR - Liontown Resources | IN LINE | 0 | 0 | 1/3/0 | 0.79 | 0.80 | 4 | Liontown Resources' 1H25 result was broadly in line. The company declared commercial production at Kathleen Valley effective January 1 which led to all costs before that being capitalised and resulted in a beat at the underlying EBITDA level. Management maintains its 2H25 guidance and expects commercial production on the Ford offtake contract in July. Bell Potter's Speculative Buy stands out against three Neutral/Hold ratings. Uncertainty about timing the recovery for lithium prices can be blamed for that. |
| MQG - Macquarie Group | IN LINE | 2 | 0 | 2/3/0 | 206.31 | 211.58 | 5 | Macquarie Group's FY25 performance slightly beat consensus but not on all metrics and forward guidances for separate divisions imply small downgrades to consensus forecasts. The market clearly liked the outcome as judged by the share price on the day. Analysts have reduced forecasts, albeit in moderate fashion. Citi believes the highest risks for earnings in the coming year lay in MAM net operating offset income, commodities, and investment-related income from MacCap. But just as typical when the subject is Macquarie, Citi also highlights management has multiple levers to increase return on equity, including a share buyback of around $1bn, exiting green assets, and reinvesting circa $3bn of gross proceeds from public markets. Two upgrades post update take the tally to two Buys and three Neutral ratings. Price targets have been upgraded. |
| MYR - Myer | MISS | 0 | 0 | 2/0/0 | 1.03 | 0.96 | 2 | Myer delivered slightly better-than-expected 1H25 revenue and EBIT. The first five weeks of 2H25 show sales down -2.6%, with Morgan Stanley highlighting commentary explains adjusting for major events, promotion timing, and the leap year, sales would have been flat. Ord Minnett is less sanguine and also points out the delays from the national distribution centre will impact FY25 earnings, though this would become a tailwind in FY26. Now the integration of the acquired brands and assets from Premier Investments awaits. Forecasts and price targets have been lowered. Two Buy ratings. |
| NAB - National Australia Bank | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 0/3/3 | 33.31 | 33.17 | 6 | National Australia Bank reported mixed 1H25 earnings, with softening trends evidenced in underlying revenue and margin, although cash earnings beat expectations due to a 2H25 cost skew, higher contribution from Markets & Treasury, as well as lower impairment charges, according to Macquarie. UBS believes the bank reported a good result, which alleviated concerns around market share loss in business lending and the 1Q25 trading update, which was disappointing. Ord Minnett also noted the release of covid-related bad debt provisions offset underlying weakness in the banking business, while the DPS at 85c met expectations. Turning to the outlook for higher dividends and new buybacks, Morgans cautioned investors the bank is likely to be restrained by CET1 capital. Daily monitored brokers have three Sell-equivalent ratings and three Neutral/Hold ratings. |
| NHC - New Hope | IN LINE | 0 | 0 | 2/2/0 | 5.11 | 4.69 | 4 | New Hope reported largely in line as the coal miner has a habit of pre-guiding investors beforehand. Not all details pleased, but the 19c in dividend and share buyback both surprised. The key problem are weakening coal prices and since the result Citi analysts have downgraded to Neutral for this particular reason. At the time of the result release, four brokers were 50/50 divided between Buy and Hold ratings. |
| NEM - Newmont Corp | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 4/0/0 | 89.80 | 95.75 | 4 | Newmont Corp's quarterly performance blew analysts' expectations away (finally!), underpinned by stronger production, by-product sales, and higher realised prices. Free cash flow was materially ahead at $1.2bn and net debt was halved to $3.2bn from $6.4bn in 2023. Production guidance for 2025 is unchanged at 5.6moz, rising to 6.0moz by 2027. The gold miner has re-purchased US$755m of shares since the start of 2025. Four brokers, four Buy ratings, also on the back of ongoing positive projections for the price of bullion. |
| NWS - News Corp | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 2/0/0 | 62.75 | 70.00 | 2 | Early indications are News Corp's March quarter performance has yet again beaten forecasts. Strong margin performances at Dow Jones and Digital Real Estate helped to push up group EBITDA margins by 130bps and 370bps year-on-year. UBS sees potential for further upside given margin strength and improving capital returns. |
| ORI - Orica | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 5/0/0 | 21.09 | 21.77 | 5 | Orica's interim report had been preceded with growing anticipation and the actual release did not disappoint. Management's strategy to focus on "value-add" and premium product is clearly paying off and analysts were left scrambling to raise their forecasts. The Asia Pacific region was a standout. Latin America underwhelmed. Management has not experienced any signs of slowing growth from a weaker macro backdrop. Guidance is for FY25 EBIT growth of circa 20% with management pointing to multiple drivers supporting ongoing growth into FY26. Five brokers, five Buy ratings. |
| QPM - QPM Energy | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 2/0/0 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 2 | QPM Energy's 1H25 revenue was in line with Bell Potter's forecasts but EBITDA beat due to the accounting treatment of some non-cash items. The broker reckons the company's quarterly cash flow statement is a better reflection of its performance. Changes to forecasts to adjust non-cash items have led to a significant rise to EBITDA estimates which flowed to EPS forecasts for FY25 and FY26. Target price of 11c and Speculative Buy rating are unchanged. |
| REA - REA Group | MISS | 0 | 0 | 4/2/0 | 269.43 | 271.17 | 6 | REA Group's quarterly performance was rather mixed with higher operational expenses the key negative. Revenues slightly beat forecasts and listings, while down, proved in line. Market interruptions from public holidays and Easter resulted in flat listings for the period, while a decline in Melbourne of -3% was more than accommodated for by a rise in Sydney of 4%. Management left guidance for FY25 unchanged. Opex guidance has been retained at low double-digit growth. Outside of management's control, the acquisition of main competitor Domain Holdings ((DHG)) by CoStar goes ahead and this will keep Nervous Nellies on the register on their toes. With forecasts on the slide, but targets higher, three Buy ratings outnumber two brokers on Neutral/Hold. |
| RMD - ResMed | IN LINE | 1 | 0 | 5/0/0 | 44.38 | 45.89 | 5 | ResMed's quarterly performance proved mostly in line as stronger masks revenue offset slower devices growth. A gross margin of 59.9% was better-than-expected, plus management increased the share buyback from June 30. More relief stemmed from the company's exemption from US tariffs under the Nairobi protocol. ResMed will continue to increase US manufacturing capacity in Calabasas, California, which will double in size over the next few years. Strong operating leverage is expected to continue, supported by further gross margin expansion, tight cost control, and production improvements. Five Buy ratings, including one upgrade by Ord Minnett. |
| SIG - Sigma Healthcare | IN LINE | 0 | 0 | 0/2/1 | 2.68 | 2.78 | 3 | Sigma Healthcare's FY25 normalised EBIT of $68m came at the higher end of the $64-70m guidance, but the focus now shifts to the June 2025 result (in August) which will reflect the merger with Chemist Warehouse. Macquarie estimates 90% of the merged entity's EBIT will come from Chemist Warehouse. Given an elevated valuation, two Neutral/Hold ratings and one Sell. |
| SM1 - Synlait Milk | MISS | 0 | 0 | 0/1/1 | 0.90 | 0.92 | 2 | Synlait Milk's H1 result beat management's own guidance, but the outlook softened with management suggesting the second half should be better than the first, albeit with slower improvement than the first. The company also highlighted the majority of South Island suppliers have withdrawn cessation notices. Bell Potter (Hold) highlights the company remains vulnerable to a2 Milk ((A2M)) integrating its supply chain vertically through 2025. Macquarie (Sell) has taken a more subdued view and reduced forecasts and its valuation. |
| TUA - Tuas | BEAT | 0 | 0 | 2/0/0 | 6.90 | 7.05 | 2 | Tuas' interim report received a true punishment on the share market but both Citi and Morgan Stanley find it hard to understand why exactly. Their expectations have been exceeded and the future continues to look bright, as far as both brokers are concerned. Morgan Stanley expects the company to grow mobile subscribers as many of its competitors are unprofitable and unlikely to keep up with the aggressive promotional activity. Two Buy ratings with price targets well above the share price. |
| WBC - Westpac | MISS | 0 | 0 | 1/1/4 | 29.51 | 28.98 | 6 | Westpac reported a resounding 1H25 earnings 'miss', triggering a mixed response from brokers. Morgan Stanley encapsulated the issues for the bank, stressing growing margin risks from rising costs, below-system mortgage growth, thereby reducing scope for further buybacks and dividend growth. Competition, according to Citi, contributed to the pressure on net interest margin in the result and also confirms dividend pressures. Ord Minnett noted management didn't offer any material guidance, with costs expected to rise in 2H25. Macquarie raised cost forecasts by 3% for the current period. FNArena daily monitored brokers erred toward downgrading EPS and DPS estimates. One Buy rating, with four Sell-equivalent ratings, and one Hold. |
| SOL - WH Soul Pattinson | IN LINE | 0 | 0 | 1/0/0 | 36.30 | 36.20 | 1 | WH Soul Pattinson's 1H25 result showed a solid 10% increase in net cash flow from investments (NCFI) and Morgans notes the company allocated more capital into private credit and private equity, with the private credit portfolio rising 73% y/y to $1.2bn on $266m additional capital. NCFI from credit portfolio rose 81% y/y and increased 108% y/y from private equity. The broker expects growth to continue in private credit with committed funds of $238m and additional opportunities. Target price cut slightly to $36.20 from $36.30. Buy (Add) maintained. |
| XRO - Xero | IN LINE | 1 | 0 | 5/0/0 | 196.15 | 212.80 | 5 | Xero's FY25 performance proved solid enough in light of the market's caution beforehand. The company is growing profitably, lifting its Club of 40 credentials, including further inroads in the USA, and higher ARPUs, but with higher operational expenses (including marketing and sales in the US). Nobody is worried about it. Some think dividends might be on the horizon. Price targets moved upwards. One upgrade by Morgans now means four Buy equivalent ratings out of four. |
Total: 33
ASX50 TOTAL STOCKS:
7
Beats
3
In Line
3
Misses
1
Total Rating Upgrades:
4
Total Rating Downgrades:
0
Total target price movement in aggregate:
5.05%
Average individual target price change:
4.22%
Beat/Miss Ratio:
3.00
ASX200 TOTAL STOCKS:
23
Beats
8
In Line
7
Misses
8
Total Rating Upgrades:
6
Total Rating Downgrades:
0
Total target price movement in aggregate:
2.00%
Average individual target price change:
0.77%
Beat/Miss Ratio:
1.00
Yet to Report
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Thursday
22 May
Friday
23 May
Thursday
29 May
Monday
2 June
Tuesday
3 June
Wednesday
4 June
Thursday
5 June
Friday
6 June
Monday
9 June
Tuesday
10 June
Wednesday
11 June
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12 June
Friday
13 June
Listed Companies on the Calendar
| Date | Code | |
| 27/05/2025 | ALQ | earnings report |
| 27/05/2025 | ARX | earnings report |
| 21/05/2025 | CAT | earnings report |
| 26/05/2025 | ELD | earnings report |
| Date | Code | |
| 30/05/2025 | FND | earnings report |
| 28/05/2025 | FPH | earnings report |
| 19/05/2025 | GTK | earnings report |
| 21/05/2025 | JHX | earnings report |
| Date | Code | |
| 21/05/2025 | NUF | earnings report |
| 20/05/2025 | SKO | earnings report |
| 20/05/2025 | TNE | earnings report |
| 28/05/2025 | WEB | earnings report |
| Date | Code | |
| 21/05/2025 | WJL | earnings report |